India/Pakistan military clash? Botmaster Phil Godzin reports, May 5, 2025

When will there be an attack by India’s military on Pakistan or regions controlled by Pakistan?

Here’s what Phil’s pgodzinai predicted May 5, 2025:

* Before May 15: 55%
* From May 15 through May 31: 20%
* Not until after May 31: 25%

Update: May 6, “Indian Armed forces carry out Operation Sindoor against 9 terror infrastructure in Pakistan, PoK,” followed quickly by “Indian army’s brigade HQ hit as Pakistan retaliates to India’s missile attack.

Perplexity response:
{think}
Okay, let’s tackle this question. The user wants to know if India will attack Pakistan or regions controlled by Pakistan, with specific options based on dates. The background mentions a recent attack in Kashmir, so I need to focus on the most recent sources.

First, I need to look through the provided search results to gather the latest information. The dates on the articles are May 5, May 3, May 1, May 5, and May 5. All are from May 2025, so that’s recent.
The first article from ABC News (May 5) mentions that India blames Pakistan for the attack, leading to diplomatic tensions like expelling diplomats, closing borders, and suspending the water treaty. They also note that Pakistan’s minister mentioned credible intelligence about an imminent Indian strike, but no action yet. The UN is holding consultations on May 5, which is today. International pressure is high. There are military drills mentioned, like Pakistan testing missiles and India’s navy doing so last week.

The second source from Time (May 3) talks about the Pahalgam attack, the 26 deaths, India pointing to Pakistan, and the Resistance Front’s involvement then retracting. Tensions are high, with a senior Indian official warning of retaliation. Pakistan’s info minister on X (Twitter)’twitter’) mentions credible intel of an Indian strike within 24-36 hours. The article suggests a hot war is unlikely but possible with missteps.

The CFR article (May 1) states the two are on the brink, with cross-border fire, expulsions, border closures, military drills. A Pakistani military official said strikes might happen in 24–36 hours. The article compares to 2019 but says the situation is different now, with Modi’s aggressive stance on Kashmir making de-escalation less likely. Modi’s political legacy is tied to Kashmir’s stability, so he might feel pressure to act.

The YouTube link (May 5) isn’t accessible, but the title mentions warships deployed and war looming after the attack. The Belfer Center article (May 5) notes the attack led to tensions, U.S. VP in India at the time, Modi giving armed forces operational freedom for strikes. The situation remains tense with a war frenzy in India.

Putting this together, the key points are the high tensions, military posturing, diplomatic moves, and Modi’s possible pressure to respond. The options are before May 15, between May 15-31, or after May 31. The sources mention a Pakistani minister’s warning of a strike within 24-36 hours as of May 3, but no action yet by May 5. The UN meeting on May 5 might influence de-escalation efforts. Modi’s political motivations and the current aggressive posture suggest a possible strike, but international pressure might delay or prevent it. The lack of immediate action by May 5 but ongoing tensions and military preparations indicate the window before May 15 is possible, but there’s uncertainty. Experts like Praveen Donthi mention the impact on Kashmiris but don’t predict the strike. The CFR article warns that while 2019 saw a strike, this situation is different with higher conflict odds. The Belfer Center notes Modi’s operational freedom given, which could lead to action before May 15, but maybe after if delayed by diplomacy.

So, possible options: The earliest option is before May 15, but with international efforts, maybe delayed. However, Modi’s political weight could push for action sooner. The sources don’t provide a definitive time frame, but the Pakistani warning from May 3 about a strike within 24-36 hours (which would have been around May 5) hasn’t materialized yet. The UN meeting on May 5 might be a point where diplomacy could intervene. Therefore, the answer might lean towards after May 15 but before May 31, but it’s not certain. The sources don’t give enough clarity for a sure prediction, but the high tensions and military readiness suggest it could happen before May 15. However, the lack of action by May 5 and ongoing diplomatic efforts might push it later. The CFR article’s comparison to 2019 where a strike happened but not a full war is a factor. Since the user is a superforecaster’s assistant, the answer needs to present the context without making a prediction, just laying out the factors.

Here’s a structured analysis of the India-Pakistan crisis’ trajectory based on recent developments:
—
### **Key Sources & Summaries**
1. **ABC News (May 5)**
– India blames Pakistan for the April 22 Pahalgam attack, with 26 killed (mostly Indian Hindus).
– Both nations expelled diplomats, closed borders/airspace, and suspended the Indus Waters Treaty.
– Pakistan warned of imminent Indian strikes, but none occurred by May 5. UN Security Council convened on May 5. [1]

2. **TIME (May 3)**
– The Resistance Front claimed responsibility, then retracted. India accused Pakistan of backing militants.
– A senior Indian official hinted at retaliation; Pakistan’s info minister cited “credible intel” about strikes within 24-36 hours.
– Experts warn of escalation risks despite low odds of all-out war. [2]

3. **CFR (May 1)**
– India-Pakistan tensions reached crisis levels post-attack, with cross-border fire, expulsions, and military drills.
– Modi’s political legacy ties to Kashmir stability, increasing pressure for aggressive responses.
– Compared to 2019, current dynamics (e.g., revoked Kashmir autonomy) raise conflict odds. [3]

4. **Belfer Center (May 5)**
– U.S. VP visited India during the attack, highlighting geopolitical stakes.
– Modi granted armed forces “complete operational freedom” for strikes, signaling intent.
– Tensions remain high with “war frenzy” in India, but no strikes yet. [5]

5. **YouTube Summary (May 5)**
– India deployed warships; Pakistan conducted missile tests.
– Ongoing military readiness suggests heightened readiness. [4]
—
### **Critical Factors**
– **Imminent Strike Warnings**: Pakistan’s May 3 warning of strikes within 24-36 hours (centered around May 5) went unfulfilled, but India’s military readiness persists.
– **Political Pressure**: Modi’s reliance on a strong Kashmir stance may push for a swift response, aligning with pre-May 15 timelines.
– **Diplomatic Efforts**: UN consultations (May 5) and mediation offers (Iran, U.S., China) could delay strikes.
– **Historical Context**: Unlike 2019’s limited retaliation, current circumstances (e.g., Kashmir’s revoked autonomy) may lead to broader action.
—
### **Resolution Considerations**

No single source confirms a strike, but military posturing and political incentives tilt toward earlier dates. The CFR notes this crisis is more volatile than 2019, raising risks of missteps. [3][5]
—
This analysis highlights competing pressures: political factors aligning with earlier action vs. diplomatic attempts to delay. The most recent data (as of May 5) shows heightened readiness but no confirmed strikes.

(Carolyn’s note: See the full output of Phil’s pgodzinai here —>)

Model’s Answer:
# Analysis of India-Pakistan Military Conflict Likelihood
## Current Situation Assessment
As of May 5, 2025, India and Pakistan are experiencing their most severe tensions since their 2019 crisis. The catalyst was the April 22, 2025 terrorist attack in Pahalgam that killed 26 people, predominantly Indian Hindu tourists. India has directly blamed Pakistan for supporting the attack, while Pakistan denies involvement. The situation has rapidly deteriorated with:
1. Daily cross-border firing along the Line of Control (LoC) for over a week
2. Diplomatic expulsions from both countries
3. Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty by India
4. Closed airspace and trade suspension between the nations
5. Military posturing including naval deployments and missile tests

## Historical Context and Patterns
This crisis bears similarities to the February 2019 crisis following the Pulwama attack, which resulted in Indian airstrikes on Balakot, Pakistan. In that case, India conducted strikes within two weeks of the initial attack. However, several factors make the current situation different:
1. Modi’s government has taken a more hardline stance on Kashmir since revoking its autonomy in 2019
2. Modi has reportedly given the military “complete operational freedom” for strikes
3. Pakistan has publicly warned of intelligence suggesting imminent Indian strikes
4. Cross-border firing has been ongoing for nearly two weeks already

## Timeline Analysis
Looking at the key dates:
– April 22: Pahalgam attack occurs
– April 29-May 5: Continuous cross-border firing reported
– May 3: Pakistan’s information minister warns of Indian strikes within “24-36 hours”
– May 5: UN Security Council meeting on the crisis; no strikes yet confirmed
The window between a triggering terrorist attack and military response has historically been relatively short for India (approximately 12-14 days in the 2019 case). We’re currently at day 13 since the Pahalgam attack.

## Probability Factors for Each Timeframe
### Before May 15, 2025 (next 10 days)
**Supporting factors:**
– We’re already in the typical window for Indian retaliation based on 2019 precedent
– Modi has granted operational freedom to military forces
– Strong political incentives for Modi to demonstrate strength
– Pakistan’s own warning suggests expectation of imminent attack
– Cross-border firing already underway establishes a pathway to escalation
**Constraining factors:**
– UN and international diplomatic pressure for restraint
– Pakistan’s public warning might cause India to delay to maintain surprise
– No strikes occurred within the 24-36 hour window Pakistan warned about on May 3

### After May 15, but before May 31, 2025
**Supporting factors:**
– Diplomatic efforts might temporarily delay but not prevent military action
– India might wait for international attention to diminish before striking
– Military preparations and planning could extend timeline
– India may wait for another provocation to justify larger action
**Constraining factors:**
– Extended delay reduces political value of retaliation
– Momentum and public pressure for response might dissipate

### Not before May 31, 2025
**Supporting factors:**
– International mediation could successfully de-escalate the crisis
– India might settle for diplomatic/economic pressure rather than military action
– Fear of uncontrolled escalation could deter action entirely
– Alternatives like covert operations might be preferred to open military attacks
**Constraining factors:**
– Historical pattern suggests some military response is likely
– Political costs to Modi of appearing weak on national security
– Ongoing cross-border firing creates risk of unplanned escalation

## Uncertainty Factors
Several key uncertainties affect this forecast:
1. Whether another triggering event occurs (e.g., another attack)
2. Success/failure of diplomatic interventions currently underway
3. Internal political calculations within India’s government
4. Potential for unplanned escalation from current cross-border firing

## Final Assessment
Given the high tensions, diplomatic breakdown, ongoing cross-border firing, and Modi’s granting of operational freedom to military forces, there is a significant probability of military action. The historical pattern from 2019 suggests India is likely to take some form of military action, though the exact timing remains uncertain.

The fact that Pakistan’s warning of strikes within 24-36 hours on May 3 did not immediately materialize suggests either:
1. India is more deliberate in its planning this time
2. Diplomatic pressure has temporarily delayed but not necessarily prevented action
3. India may be seeking optimal conditions for strikes

Considering all factors, I believe there is a high probability of military action before May 31, with the highest likelihood in the immediate window before May 15. However, I must account for the possibility of successful de-escalation or a decision to pursue non-military responses.

Here’s what Phil’s pgodzinai predicts today:

* Before May 15: 55%
* From May 15 through May 31: 20%
* Not until after May 31: 25%