How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025?
Phil’s AI bot has joined Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle as side competitors with the machine forecasting bots of the VIEWS competition.
News Summary:
In assessing the number of conflict deaths in Sudan for 2025, several recent developments and ongoing conditions offer insights:
1. **Escalating Violence and Humanitarian Crisis**:
– The conflict, which started in April 2023, has evolved into a significant civil war primarily involving the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). As of recent reports, the conflict has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths. A study by American universities estimated deaths at around 130,000, while various sources have reported figures ranging from 29,700 to 150,000 deaths (March 29 and March 14 reports).
– The war has led to a massive humanitarian crisis, with over 30 million people in need of aid and around 14 million displaced. UNICEF and UN officials have described it as one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises (March 14 and February 3 reports).
2. **Displacement and Refugee Crisis**:
– The conflict has displaced millions within Sudan and into neighboring countries. Reports indicate 12.9 million have been displaced, with a significant number seeking refuge in South Sudan and other countries (March 29 and March 26 reports).
3. **Humanitarian Conditions**:
– Severe food insecurity persists, affecting half of Sudan’s population, with millions facing famine-like conditions. The obstruction of aid contributes significantly to this crisis (February 3 report).
– Health conditions are dire, with widespread malnutrition, especially among children. Reports indicate acute malnutrition affecting over 770,000 children, worsening due to ongoing violence (February 21 report).
4. **Military and Political Developments**:
– The SAF has recently regained control over key strategic areas like Khartoum, while the RSF still controls parts of the country, including areas within the Darfur region (March 29 reports).
– The conflict remains unresolved, and both sides continue to commit and be accused of severe human rights violations, including targeting civilians and infrastructure (March 30 and February 18 reports).
– International diplomatic efforts, including sanctions and accusations of genocide against the RSF and even foreign nations like the UAE for supporting them, complicate the situation (March 7 report).
5. **Media and Communication**:
– The conflict severely damaged Sudan’s media infrastructure, with most outlets shut down and journalists displaced, making it difficult to obtain accurate information (March 30 report).
Overall, the situation in Sudan is characterized by intense and ongoing military conflict, a catastrophic humanitarian situation, high mortality rates, and massive displacement, all exacerbated by limited access to media reports and international relief efforts. These conditions suggest that conflict deaths are likely to remain high through 2025 unless significant peace negotiations or effective interventions occur.
Model’s Answer:
# Analysis of Conflict Deaths in Sudan for 2025
## Current Situation Assessment
The conflict in Sudan, which began in April 2023, continues to exact a devastating toll. Based on the research provided, we have multiple data points that help frame our forecast:
1. **Historical Death Tolls**: According to Statista, there were approximately 14,000 civilian deaths in Sudan in 2024 alone. This provides a crucial baseline for projecting 2025 figures.
2. **Cumulative Deaths**: As of March 2025, total estimated deaths since the conflict began range from 20,000 to 62,000 (NZCity), with other estimates as high as 130,000-150,000 (from the second research assistant).
3. **Ongoing Conflict Dynamics**: The conflict remains active with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) recently regaining parts of Khartoum while the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) maintain control in other regions, particularly Darfur.
4. **Failed Peace Initiatives**: Multiple peace talks have failed, and there’s no indication of imminent resolution.
5. **Humanitarian Crisis**: Approximately 30 million people need aid, 14 million are displaced, and famine conditions affect roughly 750,000 people, which could contribute to indirect conflict deaths.
## Forecasting Approach
Given that we’re in March 2025 forecasting through December 2025, we’re already through roughly 25% of the year. This means we need to account for:
1. **Deaths Already Occurred**: Some portion of 2025’s death toll has already materialized in the first quarter.
2. **Trend Projection**: Whether the conflict is escalating, stabilizing, or potentially de-escalating.
3. **Baseline Comparison**: How 2025’s death rate compares to 2024’s established figure of 14,000.
## Key Considerations
1. **Trend Analysis**: The SAF regaining parts of Khartoum in early 2025 suggests intensified fighting. The January 2025 genocide accusations against the RSF indicate heightened violence. These factors suggest the conflict may be escalating rather than subsiding.
2. **Quarterly Distribution**: If we assume a relatively steady death rate and use 2024’s 14,000 figure as a baseline, a simple linear projection would suggest approximately 3,500 deaths per quarter. With one quarter already passed, we might expect 10,500+ additional deaths for the remaining three quarters of 2025.
3. **Conflict Acceleration/Deceleration**: The recent territorial gains by SAF and continued violence indicate that the conflict shows no signs of abating. Without major peace initiatives on the horizon, there’s little reason to expect a significant reduction in the death rate.
4. **Structural Factors**: The collapsed healthcare system, famine conditions, and massive displacement will likely contribute to both direct and indirect conflict deaths throughout 2025.
## Probability Distribution Analysis
Given the 2024 baseline of 14,000 deaths and the continuation of conflict into 2025 with possible escalation, the “More than 12,000” category appears most probable. However, I must account for some possibility of de-escalation or successful peace initiatives, which could reduce the death toll.
The conflict has shown significant intensity in early 2025 with the SAF reclaiming parts of Khartoum. Given that we’re already in March 2025 with ongoing fighting, and using the 2024 figure of 14,000 deaths as a baseline, it seems highly probable that 2025 will see more than 12,000 conflict deaths.
However, I need to account for some uncertainty. It’s theoretically possible (though unlikely) that an unexpected peace deal could dramatically reduce casualties for the remainder of the year. There’s also uncertainty in the measurement and reporting of deaths in an active conflict zone.
Based on all evidence, the probability distribution heavily favors “More than 12,000” deaths, with smaller but non-zero probabilities for the lower ranges to account for the possibility of dramatic conflict de-escalation.
Model values:
* Less than 1000: 1%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 2%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 3%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 4%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 10%
* More than 12000: 80%
Pictured above, the main dashboard of the VIEWS machine forecasting competition. Currently, the site is being rebuilt, patience, please.
Background on VIEWS
Near the end of 2024, the latest forecasting competition of the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was launched. On Dec. 4, 2024, during a telecon, a group of machine forecasting experts involved in VIEWS observed Botmaster Jeremy’s demonstration of his Multi-AI Oracle. Although it was too late for Jeremy to sign up as a VIEWS competitor, they urged him to run a side competition for everyone’s benefit. Jeremy chose their Sudan conflict deaths question. Now collaborating with Jeremy, Botmaster Phillip Godzin has joined our side competition with VIEWS. Phil is famed for having won the Metaculus Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
