How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025?
Jeremy’s most recent version of his Multi-AI Oracle is a side competitor with the machine forecasting bots of the VIEWS competition.
Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Sudan conflict 2025
Results from around the web:
{think}
Okay, let’s tackle this query about the Sudan conflict in 2025. The user wants current web results, so I need to check the provided search results first. The sources are from April 2025, which is right around the current date given (April 16, 2025).
First, I’ll look at the news articles. The Vatican News source [1] from April 15, 2025, mentions the two-year anniversary of the conflict, describing it as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. They talk about tens of thousands dead, famine, and 13 million displaced. There’s also info about recent attacks by RSF and a conference in London trying to restart peace talks. The USCRI report [2] from April 8, 2025, confirms the ongoing deterioration, with over 11 million internally displaced and 3.9 million refugees. It also accuses RSF of genocide and both sides of war crimes.
Next, the Wikipedia entries [3][4][5] give background on the civil war starting in 2023, the factions involved (SAF vs RSF), and recent military actions up to March 2025. The timeline [9] from August 2024 to September 2024 details specific battles, airstrikes, and humanitarian issues like famine declarations.
I need to summarize these findings, focusing on the current state in 2025. Key points are the humanitarian crisis, displacement numbers, famine, international efforts (like the London conference), and recent military gains by SAF in Khartoum. Also, the UN’s involvement and accusations of war crimes by both sides.
The user asked for tables with relevant data. From the sources, I can extract displacement stats, casualty figures, and maybe a timeline of key events in 2024-2025. The Vatican article [1] mentions 13 million displaced, while USCRI [2] says 11 million IDPs and 3.9 million refugees. The Wikipedia timeline [9] has specific dates and events, which can be formatted into a table.
I should make sure to cite each source properly, using brackets after each fact. Also, check for any discrepancies between sources, like varying displacement numbers. The Vatican News might have more recent data since it’s from April 15, 2025, so I’ll prioritize that.
Lastly, the user mentioned market prediction sites, but none of the provided sources include data from Kalshi, Metaculus, or Polymarket. Since those aren’t available, I’ll note that no relevant data from prediction sites was found.
Putting it all together, the summary should start with an overview, then break down into sections like humanitarian impact, military developments, international response, and data tables. Make sure to highlight the severity of the crisis and the ongoing conflict dynamics in 2025.
The Sudan conflict in 2025 remains one of the world’s most devastating humanitarian crises, marked by widespread violence, famine, and displacement. Here’s a summary of current developments and data based on recent reports and sources:
—
### **Key Developments (2024–2025)**
– **Humanitarian Catastrophe**:
– Over **13 million people** are internally displaced, with **3.9 million refugees** fleeing to neighboring countries like Chad and South Sudan[1][2].
– Famine has been declared in regions such as **Zamzam IDP camp** (El Fasher) and parts of **South Kordofan** and **Blue Nile**, affecting millions[3][9].
– At least **100,000+ casualties** have been reported since the war began in 2023, including civilians and aid workers[1][3].
– **Military Dynamics**:
– The **Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)** recaptured strategic locations in **Khartoum** (e.g., Presidential Palace, Central Bank) by March 2025, weakening RSF control[3][9].
– The **Rapid Support Forces (RSF)** continues attacks in Darfur, Gezira, and Sennar, accused of ethnic killings, systematic rape, and blocking humanitarian aid[2][9].
– Both sides are rearming, with SAF increasingly relying on Islamist militias and RSF receiving alleged support from the UAE and Wagner Group[3][5].
– **International Response**:
– A **London peace conference** (April 2025) aims to revive stalled negotiations involving 20 nations[1].
– The U.S. has accused the RSF of **genocide**, while the UN warns of regional destabilization due to refugee flows[2][9].
– Aid organizations like Caritas Internationalis and ACT Alliance are providing critical support but face access challenges[1].
—
### **Data Tables**
—
### **Regional and Global Implications**
– **Refugee Pressure**: Neighboring countries like Chad and South Sudan, already facing their own crises, struggle to accommodate refugees[1][2].
– **Economic Collapse**: Sudan’s GDP has plummeted, with inflation exceeding 300% and infrastructure decimated[3][5].
– **War Crimes Allegations**: Both SAF and RSF face ICC investigations for atrocities, including ethnic cleansing and blocking aid[2][9].
No relevant data from prediction platforms (e.g., Kalshi, Polymarket) was found in the provided sources.
The conflict shows no signs of abating, with both factions rejecting negotiations and the international community struggling to coordinate effective intervention[1][3][9].
OpenAI gives a base rate of probability of fatalities exceeding 12,000: High.
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 260
(Caroly’s
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
Given the current reported fatalities and the ongoing intensity of the conflict, the base rate considers the likelihood that ongoing violence, including significant military offensives and humanitarian crises, will result in a continuation of fatalities. Previous conflicts of a similar nature have shown a high likelihood of exceeding 12,000 fatalities when significant humanitarian crises and armed conflict persist.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Information on the likelihood of successful peace talks or details of any forthcoming international interventions could greatly improve forecast quality. Monitoring ongoing refugee flows and humanitarian aid effectiveness would also provide critical insights.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
If international peace talks lead to a ceasefire or if significant interventions reduce conflict intensity, the actual number of fatalities might be lower. However, the entrenched positions of the combatants and ongoing humanitarian challenges suggest it will be hard to lower the base rate significantly.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
For more than 12,000 confirmed fatalities to occur due to the conflict by the end of 2025. Very likely
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.02, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.05, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.12, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.25, “More than 12000”: 0.55] – confidence: 7)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.15, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.3, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.3, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.19, “More than 12000”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.1, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.15, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.19, “More than 12000”: 0.5] – confidence: 7)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 7
MAPD: Avg: 0.12444444444444, Max: 0.33333333333333
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* Less than 1000: 1%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 5%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 10%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 15%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 19%
* More than 12000: 50%
The various AIs collectively predict that the conflict in Sudan, having caused over 100,000 casualties since 2023 with ongoing intense fighting, famine, and displacement, is likely to continue to result in significant fatalities. The entrenched positions of the combatants, lack of effective peace negotiations, and deteriorating humanitarian conditions, including a humanitarian crisis with millions affected, support the prediction of a high death toll. However, this outlook could change with successful international interventions, peace agreements, or emergent ceasefires that might reduce conflict intensity and improve humanitarian conditions.
Past forecasts on Sudan’s conflict fatalities —>
Guide to Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports (some of these only apply to older versions)
MAPD: Mean Absolute Percentage Deviation calculates the average percentage difference between actual values and predicted values, providing a relative measure of error.
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Revers
Background on VIEWS: Near the end of 2024, the latest forecasting competition of the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was launched. On Dec. 4, 2024, during a telecon, a group of machine forecasting experts involved in VIEWS observed Jeremy’s demonstration of his Multi-AI Oracle. Although it was too late for Jeremy to sign up as a VIEWS competitor, they urged him to run a side competition for everyone’s benefit. Jeremy chose their Sudan conflict deaths question.
Background on the Sudan conflict, as evaluated by the team of Jeremy Lichtman and Carolyn Meinel:
(1) The importance of the Sahel, a region in Africa that includes Sudan:
Why the Sahel Actually Matters (Possibly To You, Too)
(2) April 29, 2024: Today, a Russian diplomat is negotiating gold mining with the Sudanese Minister of Minerals.
(3) June 3, 2024: Today the African Union Announced Plans to Mediate in Sudan’s Civil War
(4) Sept. 11, 2024 Over 100K starvation deaths 96% likely in Sudan by 1 Jan 2025
Carolyn has checked Sudan’s news sites below to ensure that they are still in operation. However, given the widespread violence in Sudan, any of these could go offline without warning.
https://www.alnilin.com/
https://www.alrakoba.net/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/ar/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/en/
https://www.alttahrer.com/
https://www.alzaeemsd.com/
https://www.assayha.net
https://www.cover-sd.com/
https://kushnews.net/
https://rakobanews.com
https://www.sudanakhbar.com/
https://sudanjem.com/
https://suna-sd.net/en
https://sudantimes.net/
https://www.sudantribune.net/
https://www.sudantribune.com/
https://sudaneseonline.com/
https://www.sudanile.com/
https://sudanow-magazine.net/
https://www.sudaress.com/
https://www.tagpress.net/
Below, a screenshot from VIEWS forecasting conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028. Below that, satellite images of the devastation in Sudan.
Below, before and after pictures of the devastation of the civil war in Sudan.
