How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025?
Phil’s pgodzinai, a multi-GenAI bot, is a side competitor with the machine forecasting bots of the VIEWS competition.
Here’s what Phil’s pgodzinai predicts today:
* Less than 1000: 2%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 5%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 8%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 18%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 25%
* More than 12000: 42%
Model’s Answer: # Analysis of Conflict Deaths in Sudan for 2025
# Analysis of Conflict Deaths in Sudan for 2025
## Current Situation Assessment
The conflict in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has been ongoing since April 2023, with devastating humanitarian consequences. According to recent reports, the cumulative death toll since the conflict began is significant, with UN estimates suggesting over 20,000 direct conflict deaths, while some local sources put the figure as high as 150,000 when including indirect deaths from disease, starvation, and lack of medical care.
Most critically, recent developments show a marked escalation in violence, particularly in Darfur. In April 2025 alone, RSF attacks on displacement camps near El Fasher resulted in 400+ deaths in a multi-day attack around mid-April, followed by another 30+ deaths in a subsequent attack on April 20-22. This suggests that even in a short timeframe of just one month, the conflict has already caused hundreds of documented deaths.
## Pattern of Violence and Acceleration
The pattern of violence is showing signs of intensification rather than abatement. Several factors support this assessment:
1. **Territorial Focus**: The RSF is regrouping in Darfur after losing ground in Khartoum, signaling a geographical shift in violence rather than a reduction.
2. **Strategic Objectives**: RSF is attempting to establish a parallel government, with a focus on capturing El Fasher, the last major army-held city in Darfur, suggesting prolonged and intense fighting ahead.
3. **Urban Warfare**: Both sides continue to use heavy artillery in populated areas, leading to high civilian casualties.
4. **Humanitarian Crisis**: Severe food insecurity, with half the population (24.6 million people) severely food insecure, combined with blockades of humanitarian aid, suggests indirect conflict deaths will increase significantly.
## Estimating 2025 Deaths
To forecast the death toll for the remainder of 2025, I need to consider:
1. **Recent Death Rate**: The April 2025 attacks in Darfur resulted in at least 430 documented deaths in a very short period. This suggests a high-intensity conflict with the potential for thousands of deaths per month if similar patterns continue.
2. **Time Remaining**: As of April 22, 2025, approximately 8 months remain in the year. If the current intensity continues or escalates, the death toll for these 8 months could easily reach the higher ranges of the options provided.
3. **Underreporting Factors**: Both research assistants highlight severe underreporting due to attacks on journalists, limited access to RSF-controlled areas, and communications blackouts. This suggests actual death tolls are likely higher than reported figures.
4. **Indirect Deaths**: The severe humanitarian crisis, with 15 million children requiring aid and widespread malnutrition, will contribute significantly to conflict-related deaths beyond direct violence.
## Estimating Probabilities
If the violence seen in April 2025 is representative of the rest of the year, with 400+ deaths in a single multi-day attack, and additional smaller attacks causing dozens more, the monthly death toll could easily exceed 1,000-1,500 deaths per month. Over 8 months, this would accumulate to 8,000-12,000+ deaths.
However, I must also account for:
1. **Potential Peace Initiatives**: While no significant breakthrough has been reported, international pressure could potentially lead to ceasefires or reductions in violence.
2. **Conflict Dynamics**: The intensity could fluctuate, with periods of lower violence interspersed with high-casualty events.
3. **Seasonal Factors**: Weather conditions and seasonal patterns might affect military operations and humanitarian conditions.
Given the documented intensity in April 2025, the entrenched positions of both sides, the strategic focus on capturing El Fasher, and the severe humanitarian crisis, the most likely outcome appears to be in the higher ranges. The “More than 12,000” category seems particularly probable given the current trajectory, but I need to distribute probability across multiple outcomes to account for uncertainty.
## Final Probability Distribution
Considering all factors and accounting for uncertainty:
* Less than 1000: 2%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 5%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 8%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 18%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 25%
* More than 12000: 42%
Details on how Phil’s pgodzinai arrived at the above forecasts –>
Past forecasts by both Phil and Jeremy on Sudan’s conflict fatalities —>
Background on VIEWS: Near the end of 2024, the latest forecasting competition of the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was launched. On Dec. 4, 2024, during a telecon, a group of machine forecasting experts involved in VIEWS observed Jeremy’s demonstration of his Multi-AI Oracle. Although it was too late for Jeremy to sign up as a VIEWS competitor, they urged him to run a side competition for everyone’s benefit. Jeremy chose their Sudan conflict deaths question.
Below, map of control in Sudan’s civil war as of April 15, 2025.
Below, before and after pictures of the devastation of the civil war in Sudan.
Carolyn has checked Sudan’s news sites below to ensure that they are still in operation. However, given the widespread violence in Sudan, any of these could go offline without warning.
https://www.alnilin.com/
https://www.alrakoba.net/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/ar/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/en/
https://www.alttahrer.com/
https://www.alzaeemsd.com/
https://www.assayha.net
https://www.cover-sd.com/
https://kushnews.net/
https://rakobanews.com
https://www.sudanakhbar.com/
https://sudanjem.com/
https://suna-sd.net/en
https://sudantimes.net/
https://www.sudantribune.net/
https://www.sudantribune.com/
https://sudaneseonline.com/
https://www.sudanile.com/
https://sudanow-magazine.net/
https://www.sudaress.com/
https://www.tagpress.net/
