How many state-based conflict deaths (total of all civilian and combat deaths, including both Ukrainian and Russian combatants) will be reported by ACLED in Ukraine in May, 2025?
Here’s what Phil’s pgodzinai predicts today:
Less than 500: 10%
Between 500 and 1000: 20%
Between 1000 and 1500: 40%
Between 1500 and 2000: 20%
Greater than 2000: 10%
Perplexity response:
{think}
Okay, let’s tackle this query. The user is asking for the number of state-based conflict deaths in Ukraine in May 2025, as reported by ACLED. The options given range from less than 500 to over 2000. They want recent data, so I need to focus on the most up-to-date sources provided.
First, looking at the search results, the latest updates are from May 2025. The key sources here are the Ukraine Conflict Monitor from ACLED, which was updated on January 31, 2025, but has a situation update from April 26 to May 2, 2025. There’s also an April 19-25 update mentioned in search result [2] and [3], both dated May 7 and 8, 2025. The May 9th regional overview from ACLED covers Asia-Pacific, which isn’t directly relevant, so I can ignore that.
The user’s question is about May 2025, but the most recent data available in the search results is up to April 25, 2025. There’s no data provided for May, which is the month in question. The ACLED Ukraine Conflict Monitor is updated every Wednesday, covering the previous week’s events. Since the current date is May 13, 2025, the latest update would be for the week ending May 9 or 10. However, the search results don’t include data beyond April.
The April data shows a decrease in political violence events (1% drop) from the previous week, with 1,376 events. However, this is events, not deaths. The specific death figures mentioned in the April 19-25 update are 49 civilians killed, and in the January update, 24 civilians and 4 combatants. But these are for individual weeks, not cumulative monthly totals.
The ACAPS report from May 8, 2025, mentions over 3.6 million internally displaced people and 6.9 million refugees, but these numbers relate to displacement, not deaths. The April 15 entry notes 54 civilian deaths from ballistic missile attacks. Again, these are specific incidents, not monthly totals.
Since the search results don’t have May data, I can’t provide an exact number. The user is a superforecaster needing a detailed rundown. I should explain that while recent April data shows weekly death figures, projecting May’s total isn’t possible without May-specific data. The available data suggests weekly civilian deaths in the range of 24-54, but combatant deaths aren’t broken out. If we extrapolate, say 40 civilian deaths per week, a month would be around 160. But combatant deaths could be higher, possibly in the hundreds per week. Adding them up might push the total towards 500-1000. However, without explicit May data, this is speculative. The answer must clarify that ACLED hasn’t released May data yet, so the question can’t be resolved definitively. The closest option based on recent trends might be between 500-1000, but with uncertainty.
**Citations for Contextual Analysis**
1. **Ukraine Conflict Monitor (May 2025)**
*Date*: May 7, 2025 | *Summary*: Reports 1,376 political violence events in the week of April 26–May 2, with a 1% decrease from the previous week. Highlights Russian advances in Donetsk and Kharkiv, 18 long-range strikes, and civilian casualties in Kyiv, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia regions. Ukrainian forces intercepted 40+ strikes[1].
2. **Ukraine War Situation Update (April 19–25)**
*Date*: May 7, 2025 | *Summary*: Documents 49 civilian deaths from Russian shelling, missiles, and drones across Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Sumy, and Zaporizhia. Emphasizes escalating attacks in key regions[2][3].
3. **ACAPS Crisis Report (May 2025)**
*Date*: May 8, 2025 | *Summary*: Notes 3.6 million internally displaced persons and 6.9 million refugees by February 2025. Mentions a 40% increase in civilian infrastructure damage in Dnipropetrovsk since 2024, linked to intensified conflict in western Zaporizhzhia[4].
4. **Regional Overview Asia-Pacific (May 2025)**
*Date*: May 9, 2025 | *Summary*: Irrelevant to Ukraine, focuses on Kashmir Valley violence[5].
—
**Key Trends and Projections**
Recent data indicates **no direct monthly death totals** for May 2025, as ACLED releases weekly updates. However, April 2025 saw:
– **Civilian Deaths**: 24 (Jan. week) to 49 (April week) per week from Russian strikes[1][2][3].
– **Combatant Activity**: Ground advances in Donetsk and Kharkiv, though specific combatant death counts are not provided[1][4].
– **Regional Intensity**: Rising clashes in western Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk, with infrastructure damage up 40% in key areas[4].
**Resolution Considerations**
– **Weekly Patterns**: If April’s 49 civilian deaths/week persist, May could see ~200 civilian deaths. Combatant deaths (unreported in sources) may inflate totals.
– **Historical Context**: January 2025 data included 4 combatant deaths alongside 24 civilian deaths in one week[1]. Extrapolating, monthly totals could range **200–500** for civilians, with combatants potentially doubling this.
**Conclusion**
ACLED’s May 2025 data is unavailable as of May 13, 2025. Based on April trends and prior weeks, a reasonable estimate would align with **500–1,000 deaths** (combining civilian and combatant fatalities), though uncertainty remains due to incomplete data. The lack of explicit May figures makes definitive forecasting challenging.
AskNews Deep Search Response:
**Contextual Analysis for May 2025 Ukraine Conflict Deaths (ACLED Data)**
The resolution source (ACLED’s Ukraine Conflict Monitor) will determine fatalities reported in May 2025. Based on recent trends and authoritative sources:
### Key Updates (May 2025, as of May 13):
1. **Escalating Civilian Casualties**:
– April 2025 was the deadliest month for civilians since September 2024, with **209 killed and 1,146 injured**, driven by intensified Russian ballistic missile attacks on cities like Kryvyi Rih, Sumy, and Kyiv [13][15][17]. The UN warns this trend has continued into May, with new attacks in Kharkiv, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia [18][19].
– Child casualties in April reached **19 killed, 78 injured**—the highest since June 2022 [6][16].
2. **Military Losses**:
– **Russian forces**: Independent sources document 107,620 confirmed military deaths as of May 9, 2025, with ~1,200 daily casualties in April 2025 [7][9][36]. Ukraine’s General Staff claims 958,070 Russian soldiers killed/wounded since 2022 [30].
– **Ukrainian forces**: Losses are less transparent, but Ukrainian President Zelensky acknowledged ~250,000 military deaths since 2022, with 140,650 in early 2025 [30][33].
3. **May 2025 Violence Indicators**:
– **Frontline activity**: 111 daily battles reported in late April [7], with Russia launching 1,262 kamikaze drones and 3,821 attacks on Ukrainian positions in April alone [7][9].
– **Ceasefire breakdown**: A Russian-declared May 7–11 ceasefire saw **6 civilians killed and 23 injured** in Ukrainian attacks per Russian officials [2][4].
### Critical Uncertainties:
– **Reporting delays**: ACLED data may lag by weeks. April numbers were published in early May, suggesting May’s totals may not be finalized until June.
– **Conflict escalation**: Western intelligence notes Russia’s 2025 losses could surpass previous years (~160,000 in early 2025) [34][36]. Increased drone/ballistic missile attacks on cities could worsen civilian tolls [17][20].
### Expert Projections:
– **Civilian deaths**: If April’s rate continues (~200/month), May’s count may align. However, the UN cited “seasonal intensification” in spring offensives [15][19].
– **Combatant deaths**: Russian daily losses of ~1,200 (April 2025) suggest ~36,000 monthly. Even if halved, this would far exceed civilian deaths.
**Likely Range**: Given ACLED aggregates *all* conflict deaths (civilian + military), and May’s violence appears comparable to April, a **“Between 1000 and 1500”** estimate is reasonable. However, combatant-heavy reporting (e.g., Russian losses) could push totals higher if ACLED includes confirmed military deaths promptly.
**Weaknesses**: No direct ACLED May 2025 data is available yet, and Russian/Ukrainian figures are disputed. Civilian counts may exclude unreported frontline deaths.
GPT News Summary:
To assist in forecasting the number of state-based conflict deaths reported by ACLED in Ukraine in May 2025, here is a summary of the most relevant developments and statistics related to the ongoing conflict:
1. **Recent Casualty Reports**:
– From May 5 to 12, 2025, the Joint Center for Control and Coordination (JCCC) in the Donetsk People’s Republic reported that Ukrainian armed formations killed one civilian and injured 12 others (Rossaprimavera.ru, May 13, 2025).
– Six Russian citizens were killed and 23 were injured by Ukrainian forces during a three-day ceasefire. In the past week, 21 people were killed, and over 70 were injured (KP.ru, May 13, 2025).
– Ukrainian forces are reported to have suffered around 4,800 casualties, including military personnel and mercenaries, during breaches of the ceasefire (Ridus.ru, May 12, 2025).
2. **Military Engagement and Front Line Changes**:
– The situation on the front line is dynamic, with Ukrainian forces making gains, such as liberating over 200 hectares of forest. The most intense fighting occurred during a ceasefire period (24tv.ua, May 12, 2025).
– Ukrainian military reported eliminating 1,170 Russian soldiers in a single day (24tv.ua, May 12, 2025).
3. **Ceasefire and Diplomatic Efforts**:
– Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for a 30-day ceasefire, supported by the US. However, Russian attacks continue, and ceasefire proposals from Ukraine are rejected (Alaraby.co.uk, May 12, 2025).
– Russia and China have shown an interest in peace talks, with China advocating for a binding peace agreement (Alaraby.co.uk, May 12, 2025).
4. **Impact on Civilians**:
– Continued civilian casualties despite ceasefires; recent reports included civilians being killed in both the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics due to ongoing conflict actions (Rossaprimavera.ru & Ridus.ru, May 12-13, 2025).
5. **Overall Conflict Context**:
– The Ukrainian military states that since the conflict’s inception, approximately 967,060 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured (Alaraby.co.uk, May 12, 2025).
– The conflict remains intense with both sides experiencing significant casualties, and international diplomatic efforts are ongoing but have yet to yield a ceasefire or substantial peace agreement.
The data suggests continued high-intensity conflict and casualty rates, making additional significant reported deaths likely in May 2025. The situation remains volatile with efforts at achieving a ceasefire or peace agreement facing challenges. Given this, the superforecaster might predict a continuation of recent casualty trends for the month.
Model’s Answer:
## Forecasting May 2025 ACLED State-Based Conflict Deaths
To forecast ACLED’s reported state-based conflict deaths for May 2025, I need to consider several factors:
1. **Recent monthly trends**: Civilian casualties have been increasing in early 2025 (January +39%, March +50% compared to previous months).
2. **Military casualty rates**: Russia losing approximately 1,200-1,500 soldiers daily (killed and wounded), with Ukraine likely experiencing 30,000 casualties monthly.
3. **Conflict intensity**: The war remains intense with continued Russian missile and drone strikes on civilian areas.
4. **Reporting lags**: ACLED reports have some delay, and May 2025 figures will only be partially available by the resolution date of June 15, 2025.
5. **ACLED methodology**: ACLED includes both civilian and military deaths in state-based conflict deaths.
### Estimating Civilian Deaths for May 2025:
– March 2025: 164 civilians killed
– January 2025: 139 civilians killed
– April 2025: At least 54 killed in just two missile attacks
Given the ongoing escalation, we can estimate May 2025 civilian deaths to be approximately 170-200.
### Estimating Military Deaths for May 2025:
– Russian combat deaths: Approximately 1,200-1,500 casualties daily, of which perhaps 30-40% are deaths (rest are wounded)
– This suggests approximately 400-600 Russian soldiers killed daily
– Ukrainian forces likely suffering at similar or somewhat lower rates
At these rates, combined military deaths could range from 15,000-25,000 for the month. However, ACLED doesn’t report all military deaths due to verification challenges.
### Total State-Based Conflict Deaths Expected in ACLED Data:
Given ACLED’s conservative methodology and verification requirements, they will likely report only a portion of the total deaths, especially for military personnel.
## Final Forecast
Based on the data collected, ACLED will most likely report between 1,000-1,500 state-based conflict deaths in Ukraine for May 2025. This reflects:
1. The increasing intensity of the conflict in early 2025
2. ACLED’s conservative methodology for reporting deaths, especially military casualties
3. The continuation of high-intensity attacks, particularly in eastern Ukraine
4. The lag in reporting that will affect complete May 2025 data
5. The historical patterns of ACLED reporting compared to other casualty estimates
While the actual death toll is almost certainly higher, ACLED’s verified and reported figures for May 2025 will likely fall in this range based on their methodological constraints and recent reporting patterns.
Less than 500: 10%
Between 500 and 1000: 20%
Between 1000 and 1500: 40%
Between 1500 and 2000: 20%
Greater than 2000: 10%
=== Reasoning ===
All Predictions:
[{‘Less than 500’: 0.03, ‘Between 500 and 1000’: 0.12, ‘Between 1000 and 1500’: 0.25, ‘Between 1500 and 2000’: 0.3, ‘Greater than 2000’: 0.3}, {‘Less than 500’: 0.25, ‘Between 500 and 1000’: 0.35, ‘Between 1000 and 1500’: 0.22, ‘Between 1500 and 2000’: 0.12, ‘Greater than 2000’: 0.06}, {‘Less than 500’: 0.04, ‘Between 500 and 1000’: 0.12, ‘Between 1000 and 1500’: 0.3, ‘Between 1500 and 2000’: 0.36, ‘Greater than 2000’: 0.18}, {‘Less than 500’: 0.08, ‘Between 500 and 1000’: 0.17, ‘Between 1000 and 1500’: 0.39, ‘Between 1500 and 2000’: 0.27, ‘Greater than 2000’: 0.09}, {‘Less than 500’: 0.09999999999999998, ‘Between 500 and 1000’: 0.19999999999999996, ‘Between 1000 and 1500’: 0.3999999999999999, ‘Between 1500 and 2000’: 0.19999999999999996, ‘Greater than 2000’: 0.1000000000000002}, {‘Less than 500’: 0.08, ‘Between 500 and 1000’: 0.32, ‘Between 1000 and 1500’: 0.42, ‘Between 1500 and 2000’: 0.15, ‘Greater than 2000’: 0.03}, {‘Less than 500’: 0.05, ‘Between 500 and 1000’: 0.3, ‘Between 1000 and 1500’: 0.45, ‘Between 1500 and 2000’: 0.15, ‘Greater than 2000’: 0.05}, {‘Less than 500’: 0.02, ‘Between 500 and 1000’: 0.08, ‘Between 1000 and 1500’: 0.2, ‘Between 1500 and 2000’: 0.25, ‘Greater than 2000’: 0.45}, {‘Less than 500’: 0.78, ‘Between 500 and 1000’: 0.16, ‘Between 1000 and 1500’: 0.04, ‘Between 1500 and 2000’: 0.01, ‘Greater than 2000’: 0.01}]
Median Reasoning:
EXTRACTED_PROBABILITIES: [10, 20, 40, 20, 10]
Model’s Answer:
## Forecasting May 2025 ACLED State-Based Conflict Deaths
To forecast ACLED’s reported state-based conflict deaths for May 2025, I need to consider several factors:
1. **Recent monthly trends**: Civilian casualties have been increasing in early 2025 (January +39%, March +50% compared to previous months).
2. **Military casualty rates**: Russia losing approximately 1,200-1,500 soldiers daily (killed and wounded), with Ukraine likely experiencing 30,000 casualties monthly.
3. **Conflict intensity**: The war remains intense with continued Russian missile and drone strikes on civilian areas.
4. **Reporting lags**: ACLED reports have some delay, and May 2025 figures will only be partially available by the resolution date of June 15, 2025.
5. **ACLED methodology**: ACLED includes both civilian and military deaths in state-based conflict deaths.
### Estimating Civilian Deaths for May 2025:
– March 2025: 164 civilians killed
– January 2025: 139 civilians killed
– April 2025: At least 54 killed in just two missile attacks
Given the ongoing escalation, we can estimate May 2025 civilian deaths to be approximately 170-200.
### Estimating Military Deaths for May 2025:
– Russian combat deaths: Approximately 1,200-1,500 casualties daily, of which perhaps 30-40% are deaths (rest are wounded)
– This suggests approximately 400-600 Russian soldiers killed daily
– Ukrainian forces likely suffering at similar or somewhat lower rates
At these rates, combined military deaths could range from 15,000-25,000 for the month. However, ACLED doesn’t report all military deaths due to verification challenges.
### Total State-Based Conflict Deaths Expected in ACLED Data:
Given ACLED’s conservative methodology and verification requirements, they will likely report only a portion of the total deaths, especially for military personnel.
## Final Forecast
Based on the data collected, ACLED will most likely report between 1,000-1,500 state-based conflict deaths in Ukraine for May 2025. This reflects:
1. The increasing intensity of the conflict in early 2025
2. ACLED’s conservative methodology for reporting deaths, especially military casualties
3. The continuation of high-intensity attacks, particularly in eastern Ukraine
4. The lag in reporting that will affect complete May 2025 data
5. The historical patterns of ACLED reporting compared to other casualty estimates
While the actual death toll is almost certainly higher, ACLED’s verified and reported figures for May 2025 will likely fall in this range based on their methodological constraints and recent reporting patterns.
Less than 500: 10%
Between 500 and 1000: 20%
Between 1000 and 1500: 40%
Between 1500 and 2000: 20%
Greater than 2000: 10%
Details from how Phil’s pgodzinai reached this forecast —>
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
Phil’s Ukraine forecasts are a side experiment with the VIEWS competition. Its Ukraine dashboard is pictured below. (Carolyn‘s note: we expect that VIEWS will use ACLED data, given the tendency of nations to minimize their own fatalities and exaggerating those of their enemies.)
