How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s April 28, 2024 parliamentary election?
Here’s what Jeremy‘s latest version of his Multi-AI Oracle says:
Obtaining outside data. Checking internet sources, using keywords: Conservative Party Canada election. Results from around the web:
Okay, let’s tackle this query about the Canada Conservative Party election. The user wants current web results from news sites, Wikipedia, party websites, and prediction markets. They also want tables with relevant data and time series if possible.
First, I’ll look through the provided search results. The most recent ones are from April 9th, 10th, and 11th, 2025. The search results include articles from CSIS, Global News, Politico, Angus Reid Institute, Science Magazine, and CTV News.
Starting with the main issues in the election from CSIS [1], the focus is on domestic issues like economy, housing, immigration, healthcare, and crime. But Trump’s tariffs and annexation comments have shifted the discourse toward US-Canada relations. Both Liberals and Conservatives are using nationalistic slogans, “Canada Strong” vs. “Canada First.” The Liberals under Carney have moved to the center, reversing some Trudeau policies. The Conservatives under Poilievre are struggling to distance from Trump’s image.
Looking at policy platforms from Global News [2] and Wikipedia [5], the Conservatives plan to cut income tax, eliminate GST on homes, repeal carbon tax on industry, fast-track resource projects, and reduce CBC funding. The Liberals are reducing the lowest tax bracket, eliminating GST for first-time homebuyers, and investing in housing and clean energy. The NDP focuses on price caps and retrofitting homes, while the Greens push for clean energy funding.
Recent polling data from Angus Reid [7] and CTV News [10] shows the Liberals leading with 46% support, Conservatives at 38%, and a significant gender gap. Women favor Liberals by 19 points. Regional breakdowns indicate Liberal strength in Ontario, BC, and Quebec, while Conservatives lead in the Prairies. The time series from CTV shows the Liberal lead fluctuating but currently at 6 points.
Leadership favorability from Angus Reid [7] gives Carney a +22 net rating, while Poilievre struggles with women voters. Politico [6] highlights Poilievre’s attempts to distance from Trump, criticizing tariffs and emphasizing Canadian sovereignty. However, his earlier alignment with Trump may still hurt his chances.
Science Magazine [9] mentions Poilievre’s pledge to end “woke ideology” in research funding, drawing comparisons to Trump’s policies, which has alarmed academics. This could impact his support among educated voters.
Prediction markets aren’t directly mentioned in the sources, but CSIS [1] and Angus Reid [7] suggest the Liberals are favored to win a majority. The Conservatives’ challenge is overcoming the Trump association and broadening their appeal, especially to women.
Putting this together, the answer should summarize key issues, policy differences, polling data, leadership dynamics, and the Trump factor. Tables for policy platforms and polling trends would be useful. Need to ensure citations are correctly applied after each relevant point.
The 2025 Canadian federal election, set for April 28, has become a high-stakes contest dominated by U.S.-Canada relations, economic concerns, and a shifting political landscape. Below is a synthesis of current data and trends:
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### Key Issues and Campaign Dynamics
**1. U.S.-Canada Relations and Nationalism**
– **Trump’s tariffs and annexation rhetoric** have overshadowed traditional domestic issues (economy, housing, healthcare), forcing both major parties to adopt nationalist slogans:
– Liberals: “Canada Strong” ([1][5])
– Conservatives: “Canada First” ([1][5][6])
– Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, previously aligned with Trump’s rhetoric, now criticizes him as “unreliable” and blames tariffs for economic chaos ([6][9]). Liberals leverage Prime Minister Mark Carney’s technocratic image as a counter to Trump’s volatility ([1][6]).
**2. Policy Platforms**
—
**3. Polling Trends**
– **National Support (April 11):**
– Liberals: 46%
– Conservatives: 38%
– NDP/Bloc: 7% each ([7][10])
– **Gender Divide:**
– Women favor Liberals by 19 points (51% vs. 32%), while men narrowly prefer Conservatives (40% vs. 38%) ([7]).
– **Regional Breakdown:**
– Liberals lead in Ontario (+14), BC (+12), and Quebec (+8). Conservatives dominate the Prairies (+28) ([7][10]).
**4. Leadership Favourability**
– **Mark Carney (Liberal):** Net +22 (55% favorable) ([7]).
– **Pierre Poilievre (Conservative):** Net -15, with 61% of women viewing him unfavorably ([7][9]).
—
### Challenges for the Conservatives
– **Trump Association:** Poilievre’s earlier praise for Trump and “Canada First” messaging has alienated women and urban voters ([6][7][9]).
– **Policy Risks:** Proposals to defund CBC and limit research funding (“anti-woke” measures) face backlash from academics and centrists ([9]).
—
### Outlook
The Liberals are projected to win a majority (183 seats) due to Carney’s momentum and Trump-driven patriotism, while the Conservatives risk losing ground in Québec and suburbs ([1][7]). The NDP and Bloc face significant seat losses, potentially reshaping Canada’s political landscape.
OpenAI gives a base rate of probability of Liberals winning with a majority (Carolyn’s note: OpenAI failed to return a value.)
The question difficulty is rated 5 (0 to 10)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 17
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is influenced by current polling data showing a consistent lead for the Liberals, significant gender gap with women voters favoring the Liberals, and regional strengths in key provinces like Ontario and Quebec.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional data on local riding dynamics, grassroots campaign activities, and upcoming debates could provide more insight. Understanding voter turnout projections could also improve forecast accuracy.
Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate:
Should Pierre Poilievre successfully distance himself from Trump’s image and regain favor among disaffected voter segments, particularly women and urban voters, the election could become more competitive. Economic shifts or an unexpected political scandal affecting the Liberals could also change the dynamics.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The Liberals maintain or expand their lead in the national polls. Very likely
– Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre fails to effectively distance himself from Trump associations. Likely
– The economy and U.S.-Canada relations continue to dominate the political discourse, favoring the Liberals. Likely
– The gender gap remains significant, with women voters continuing to favor the Liberals. Likely
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.55, “between 172 and 205”: 0.3, “between 206 and 240”: 0.1, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.2, “between 172 and 205”: 0.5, “between 206 and 240”: 0.25, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.2, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.25, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 7)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 21%
* between 172 and 205: 47%
* between 206 and 240: 26%
* more than 240: 6%
The various analyses highlight a significant lead for the Liberal Party over the Conservative Party according to current polling data, driven by factors such as a favorable gender gap and strong regional support for the Liberals in key provinces like Ontario and Quebec. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre faces challenges due to negative favorability ratings and his association with Donald Trump, which may impede his appeal, especially among women voters. However, potential shifts, such as polling inaccuracies, unexpected Liberal scandals, or changes in economic conditions, could alter the outcome. If Poilievre successfully distances himself from Trump or if unforeseen events affect voter sentiment, the Conservatives might see improved performance. Ultimately, while the Liberals are currently favored, the inherent unpredictability of political campaigns means factors like economic shifts or last-minute voter sentiment changes could still impact election results.
Guide to Jeremy’s Bots Reports (These don’t all apply to the current version of his bot.)
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
