How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s April 28, 2024 parliamentary election?
Here’s what Jeremy‘s latest version of his Multi-AI Oracle says:
Obtaining outside data. Checking internet sources, using keywords: Conservative Party Canada election. Results from around the web:
{think}
Okay, so I need to find current web results about the Canada Conservative Party election. Let me start by looking through the provided search results.
First, result [1] from Wikipedia gives an overview of the 2025 Canadian federal election. It mentions the Conservative Party’s platform, including tax cuts, eliminating GST on home purchases up to $1.3 million, and ending CBC funding. The seat distribution shows the Conservatives have 120 seats, up from 119 in 2021. That’s a key point about their current standing.
Result [2] from National Post says the election was called early by Liberal leader Mark Carney, who became PM after Trudeau stepped down. The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, are a major party. The seat count here is 120 for Conservatives, and the election date is April 28. This gives context on why the election is happening now and the main players.
Result [3] from Science.org talks about Poilievre’s pledge to end ‘woke ideology’ in research funding, which has alarmed some researchers. This shows a policy stance that’s part of their platform, affecting academia. It also mentions the Conservatives were leading in polls until Trump’s policies shifted the focus, affecting their lead.
Result [4] from CSIS analysis discusses the election issues shifting from domestic concerns to handling US relations under Trump. The Conservatives had a strong lead but lost it as the Liberals gained momentum. Polls now show a tight race, with the Liberals slightly ahead. This is important for understanding the current dynamics and why the Conservatives’ position changed.
Result [5] from Times of India breaks down the main issues: affordability, US tensions, healthcare. It notes the Conservatives blame ‘Justinflation’ and propose tax cuts. Polls show Liberals at 45%, Conservatives in high 30s. This gives a snapshot of voter concerns and party positioning.
Result [6] from Politico highlights a pollster’s view that Trump’s influence caused a drastic shift in polls, with Liberals surging. The Conservatives’ lead vanished, and the Liberals are now projected to win a majority. This emphasizes external factors impacting the election.
Result [7] from Wikipedia details Poilievre’s 2022 leadership win with 68% support, showing his strong base within the party. This background is useful for understanding his leadership strength.
Result [9] is a YouTube video transcript mentioning a recent Ipsos poll where Conservatives gained 2 points, narrowing the gap. Liberals dipped to 42%, Conservatives at 36%. This shows recent momentum changes leading into debates.
Result [10] from Simon Fraser University provides historical election data, but it’s up to 2021, so not current for 2025. Still, it gives context on past performance.
Putting this together, the key points are the Conservative Party’s platform, their current seat count, polling trends affected by Trump’s policies, Poilievre’s leadership, and recent poll changes. I should summarize these aspects and include tables for seat distribution and polling trends. Also, note the impact of external factors like US relations on the election dynamics.
The 2025 Canadian federal election, scheduled for April 28, features a highly competitive race between the Conservative Party and the Liberal Party, with U.S. trade tensions and domestic affordability issues dominating the campaign. Below is a synthesized analysis of the Conservative Party’s position, policies, and electoral prospects based on current information.
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### Conservative Party Platform Highlights
The Conservative Party, led by **Pierre Poilievre**, has centered its campaign on economic relief and deregulation:
– **Taxation**: Reduce the lowest income tax bracket from 15% to 12.75%, increase the basic personal exemption for seniors by $10,000, and raise the TFSA contribution limit by $5,000 if invested domestically[1][5].
– **Housing**: Eliminate GST on new home purchases under $1.3 million for all buyers and subsidize municipalities to reduce development charges[1][2].
– **Energy**: Repeal environmental assessments to fast-track pipelines and mining projects, while abolishing the carbon tax on industry[1][4].
– **Immigration**: Grant Quebec greater control over temporary immigration under the International Mobility Program[1].
– **Media**: End funding for CBC’s English-language operations while retaining support for French-language Radio-Canada[1][3].
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### Electoral Context and Polling Trends
**Seat Distribution (Pre-Election)**
A majority requires **172 seats** in the 343-seat House of Commons[1][2][5].
**Polling Shifts (January–April 2025)**
The Conservatives’ initial 25-point lead evaporated after U.S. tariffs and annexation rhetoric shifted focus to national sovereignty, boosting Liberal momentum[4][6]. Recent Ipsos data shows Liberals at 42% (-4 from March) and Conservatives at 36% (+2), with 33% of voters favoring Poilievre as PM versus 41% for Carney[9].
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### Key Challenges and Opportunities
– **Strengths**: Poilievre’s populist messaging on affordability resonates with voters frustrated by inflation (“Justinflation”)[5][6]. His 2022 leadership victory (68% of party votes) underscores strong internal support[7].
– **Weaknesses**: Accusations of echoing Trump’s “ideological interference” rhetoric, particularly regarding research funding cuts[3], and perceived alignment with far-right movements[6].
– **Wildcard**: Trump’s escalating trade war (steel, lumber, dairy tariffs) has forced both parties to adopt nationalist slogans (“Canada First” vs. “Canada Strong”)[4][5].
—
### Projected Outcomes
Analysts initially predicted a Conservative majority but now favor a **Liberal plurality** (≈183 seats) due to Carney’s perceived competence in managing U.S. relations[4][6]. However, the first-past-the-post system and regional concentration of Conservative support (strong in Western Canada) leave room for surprises[5][10].
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This election will hinge on whether Poilievre’s economic populism can overcome concerns about his alignment with Trump-era policies and polarization.
OpenAI gives a base rate of likelihood that the Conservatives gain between 206 and 240 seats based on historical election data and current polling.
The question difficulty is rated 6 (0 to 10)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 13
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
Historically, the Conservative Party has not consistently won over 205 seats without a major national shift or significant political momentum. Current polls and expert analysis suggest the Liberals are favored due to handling of U.S. relations and voter shifts on economic issues.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
More detailed internal polling data and emerging voter demographics would improve the forecast. Additionally, understanding the impact of campaign events or last-minute endorsements could be crucial.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Unexpected changes in the geopolitical landscape, significant missteps by Liberal leadership, or a dramatic increase in strategic Conservative voter turnout could alter outcomes. Additionally, regional variations in support may cause seat gains disproportionate to popular vote share.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Conservative Party wins more than 205 seats in the Canadian federal election. Very Unlikely
– Significant shift in voter sentiment toward Conservative policies before April 28. Unlikely
– Resolution of key external factors, like U.S. trade tensions, in favor of the Conservatives. Unlikely
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.45, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.4, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.15, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
MAPD: Avg: 0.1, Max: 0.2
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 40%
* between 172 and 205: 35%
* between 206 and 240: 20%
* more than 240: 5%
The analyses surrounding the Conservative Party’s chances in the upcoming election emphasize several key points. Despite showing some momentum in recent polls, the Conservatives are generally trailing the Liberals, who are favored due to effective handling of U.S. relations and economic policies. Historically, the Conservatives have struggled to exceed 205 seats without major national shifts, and with the first-past-the-post system and regional support concentrated in Western Canada, achieving substantial gains is challenging. However, several factors could disrupt these predictions, such as underestimations in polls, unexpected developments late in the campaign, strategic voter turnout, and regional vote efficiency potentially leading to surprising seat gains. The uncertainty of political predictions, amplified by possible shifts in voter sentiment and external influences like U.S. trade tensions, adds complexity to these forecasted outcomes.
Guide to Jeremy’s Bots Reports (These don’t all apply to the current version of his bot.)
MAPD: Mean Absolute Percentage Deviation calculates the average percentage difference between actual values and predicted values, providing a relative measure of error.
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
