How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s April 28, 2024 parliamentary election?
Here’s what Jeremy‘s latest version of his Multi-AI Oracle says:
Obtaining outside data. Checking internet sources, using keywords: Conservative Party Canada election. Results from around the web:
{think}
Okay, I need to address the user’s query about the Canada Conservative Party election by summarizing current web results and including relevant data tables. Let me start by reviewing the provided search results to find information specifically related to the Conservative Party’s platform, polling data, and election dynamics.
First, looking at the search results, [1] from Wikipedia details the policy platforms of all major parties. The Conservative Party’s policies include tax reductions, GST exemptions on homes, fast-tracking resource projects, and changes to the CBC funding. [2] from National Post gives the election date and seat distribution, noting the Conservatives have 120 seats. [3] from Science.org mentions Poilievre’s stance against ‘woke ideology’ in research funding, which is a unique point. [4] Politico’s article discusses the shift in polls due to Trump’s influence, showing the Conservatives losing their lead. [5] CSIS analysis highlights the impact of U.S. relations on the election, with both parties using nationalist slogans. [6] Ipsos polling data shows the Conservatives at 36%, narrowing the gap with Liberals. [10] Global News outlines Conservative promises on housing, environment, and U.S. relations.
I need to structure the answer with sections on policy platforms, polling trends, key issues, and comparisons with other parties. Including tables for polling data and policy comparisons would be helpful. I should ensure citations are correctly applied after each relevant sentence, using the provided search result indices. Also, the user asked for market prediction sites, but none of the sources mention Kalshi, Metaculus, or Polymarket, so I’ll note that info isn’t available.
Time series data isn’t explicitly present, but Ipsos [6] provides weekly changes, which I can format into a table. The CSIS [5] and Politico [4] articles discuss polling shifts over time, so I’ll summarize that. For policy comparisons, using a table from the Liberal and Conservative platforms based on [1] and [10] would clarify differences.
I need to avoid any markdown in the thinking process, but the final answer should use headers and tables as specified. Make sure each claim is backed by the search results and cited properly. Double-check that all Conservative Party info is covered, including their platform, polling trends, and key issues like U.S. relations and housing. Conclude with a summary of their position in the election.
The 2025 Canadian federal election has become a pivotal contest for the Conservative Party, with its platform and polling dynamics shaped by both domestic priorities and external pressures from U.S. relations. Below is a synthesis of key developments:
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## Policy Platform Highlights
The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, has centered its campaign on tax relief, housing affordability, and energy/resource development:
– **Taxation**: Reduce the lowest income tax bracket from 15% to **12.75%**[1], increase the TFSA contribution limit by $5,000 for investments in Canadian businesses[1], and exempt new home purchases under $1.3 million from GST[10].
– **Housing**: Offer municipalities 50% reimbursement for reducing development charges (up to $25,000 per unit)[1] and sell 6,000 federal buildings to free land for housing[10].
– **Energy/Environment**: Repeal the carbon tax on industry[1], fast-track resource projects via a “one and done” approval system[10], and create “shovel-ready zones” for infrastructure[10].
– **Criminal Justice**: Propose a three-strikes law for repeat offenders using the *notwithstanding clause* to override Charter challenges[1].
– **U.S. Relations**: Seek renegotiation of the USMCA trade agreement and pause tariffs during talks[10].
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## Polling Trends and Electoral Dynamics
Recent polls show a tightening race, with Trump-related uncertainties reshaping voter sentiment:
– The Conservatives’ 25-point lead in January collapsed amid Trump’s tariff threats and annexation rhetoric, which boosted Liberal leader Mark Carney’s appeal as a steady hand[4][5].
– As of April 13, 36% of Canadians favor the Conservatives, while 56% believe it’s time for a change in government[6].
## Key Issues Driving the Election
**1. U.S. Relations**:
– Both parties have adopted nationalist slogans (“Canada Strong” vs. “Canada First”) while pledging to resist Trump’s trade policies[5].
– The Conservatives aim to renegotiate USMCA and secure energy sector demands, while Liberals focus on building domestic supply chains[10].
**2. Housing Affordability**:
– Contrasting approaches: Conservatives emphasize municipal incentives and GST cuts, while Liberals propose a Crown corporation (Build Canada Homes) and prefab housing financing[1][10].
**3. Research Funding**:
– Poilievre’s pledge to end “woke ideology” in federal research grants has drawn comparisons to Trump-era policies, sparking concerns about academic freedom[3].
—
## Comparative Policy Table: Conservatives vs. Liberals
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## Challenges and Outlook
– The Conservatives must pivot from criticizing Trudeau’s legacy to contrasting with Carney’s centrist repositioning[5].
– Poilievre’s alignment with Trump-style rhetoric on issues like climate change and “woke ideology” risks alienating moderate voters[3][4].
– Market prediction platforms (e.g., Kalshi, Polymarket) are not directly cited in available sources, but polling suggests a narrow path for a Conservative minority government unless debates shift momentum[6].
The election’s outcome hinges on whether Poilievre can reframe the campaign around domestic economic issues while neutralizing Carney’s advantage on U.S. diplomacy.
OpenAI gives a base rate of percentage of support for Conservative Party in polls (Carolyn’s note: OpenAI has failed to return a value on the base rate calculation prompt.)
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: reference_class
Expected time (days) until question close: 180
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is derived from recent Ipsos polling data which places Conservative support at 36%. Historical trends show fluctuations in support based on external events, such as U.S. relations and economic performance, which could impact voter perception.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional information such as regional polling data, demographic voting trends, or the impact of televised debates would strengthen the forecast. Insights into voter sentiment shifts during the election campaign could provide a more nuanced prediction.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Support for the Conservative Party may increase if their policies on taxation, housing, and energy gain traction, or if geopolitical developments alter public priorities. Conversely, support may decrease if economic indicators worsen or if other parties present more compelling solutions.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively: (Carolyn’s note: the Muti-AI Oracle is presuming that “positively” means the likelihood of the Conservative Party winning control of Parliament and hence Polievre becoming Prime Minister.)
– Conservative Party maintains or gains seats in the parliament. Likelihood: Moderate
– Polls indicate stable or increasing support for Conservative policies. Likelihood: Moderate to Low
– External factors (e.g., U.S. relations, economic indicators) favorably impact Conservative public opinion. Likelihood: Low to Moderate
– Political events or scandals reduce support for other major parties. Likelihood: Low
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.45, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.35, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.25, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
MAPD: Avg: 0.083333333333333, Max: 0.13333333333333
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 39%
* between 172 and 205: 39%
* between 206 and 240: 17%
* more than 240: 5%
The summary interpretations suggest that the Conservative Party, currently at 36% in polling, faces hurdles to attaining a majority in the Canadian parliamentary system. These barriers include declining popularity due to international relations, specifically U.S.-Canada dynamics, and internal challenges against the opposition led by Mark Carney. Historical performance patterns imply that while the Conservatives might achieve modest seat gains, a dramatic increase is unlikely in the shifting political landscape. Potential discrepancies in polling accuracy, unexpected scandals, economic fluctuations, or changes in voter tendencies could alter projections. However, these factors also hold potential for unexpected gains if conditions favor the Conservatives, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of electoral outcomes.
Guide to Jeremy’s Bots Reports (These don’t all apply to the current version of his bot.)
MAPD: Mean Absolute Percentage Deviation calculates the average percentage difference between actual values and predicted values, providing a relative measure of error.
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
