How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s April 28, 2025 parliamentary election?
Here’s what Jeremy‘s latest version of his Multi-AI Oracle says:
(Carolyn’s note: Both Jeremy and I agree, these probabilities are, so far, just an experiment. By the end of April we should learn how good these will turn out to be)
* less than 172: 45%
* between 172 and 205: 35%
* between 206 and 240: 15%
* more than 240: 5%
How Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle arrived at the above probabilities:
Obtaining outside data. Checking internet sources, using keywords: Conservative Party Canada election. Results from around the web:
{think}
Okay, let’s tackle this query. The user wants information on the Canada Conservative Party’s election seats, current web results, and relevant data tables. First, I need to check the provided search results to find any mentions of the Conservative Party’s seat projections or current standings.
Looking at the first result from Wikipedia about the 2025 Canadian federal election, there’s a table showing the current standings. The Conservatives have 120 seats out of 338, up from 119 in 2021. The election will use a new 343-seat map, so that’s a key point. The second search result lists candidates, which might not directly address seat projections but shows where they’re competing.
Search result 5 from CTV News mentions polling data: the Conservatives are at 39% nationally, with regional strengths in the Prairies (60%) and BC (39%). However, the Liberals lead in Ontario and Quebec. Result 6 (POLITICO) quotes a pollster predicting a Liberal majority, which implies the Conservatives might not gain enough seats despite high popularity.
Abacus Data’s poll (result 8) shows the Conservatives at 38% nationally, with a slight edge among committed voters. Seat-rich regions like Ontario have the Liberals leading, which is crucial because Ontario’s seats are critical for forming a government. Angus Reid’s poll (result 10) shows the Liberals at 42%, Conservatives at 37%, with the Conservatives struggling in Ontario and Quebec.
I need to compile this data into a summary. Mention the current seat standings from Wikipedia, the polling trends, regional breakdowns, and expert analyses. Create tables for national polling averages and regional support. Highlight factors affecting Conservative chances, like Trump’s influence and Carney’s leadership. Also, note the shift in voter sentiment and the impact of key issues like affordability and US relations.
Make sure to cite sources properly, using the brackets for each reference. Check if any of the search results mention prediction markets, but it seems they don’t, so focus on the provided polls and analyses. Ensure tables are clear and follow the formatting rules, using markdown where appropriate. Avoid any subjective language and stick to the data presented.
The 2025 Canadian federal election shows the Conservative Party (CPC) led by Pierre Poilievre competing in a tightening race against Mark Carney’s Liberals. Below is a detailed breakdown of seat projections, polling trends, and key factors influencing the CPC’s performance:
—
## Current Seat Standings and Electoral Context
– The **2025 election** will use a new 343-seat electoral map (+5 seats from 2021) [1].
– As of March 2025, the Conservatives held **120 seats** (up from 119 in 2021), while the Liberals had 152 (down from 160) [1].
– Key regional battlegrounds include **Ontario** (51% Liberal vs. 40% CPC), **Quebec** (44% Liberal vs. 22% CPC), and **British Columbia** (41% Liberal vs. 39% CPC) [5][8].
—
## National Polling Trends
**Key Insights**:
– The CPC’s support (~37–39%) is its highest since 2011 but insufficient for a majority due to inefficient vote distribution [5][6].
– Among committed voters, the CPC edges the Liberals (40% vs. 39%), suggesting potential turnout advantages [8].
—
## Regional Strengths and Weaknesses
—
## Factors Influencing CPC’s Seat Prospects
1. **Trump’s Impact**: U.S. tariff threats and annexation rhetoric under President Trump have galvanized Canadian nationalism, boosting Liberal support [6][10].
2. **Leadership Perception**: Pierre Poilievre trails Mark Carney on economic trust (34% vs. 41% as “Preferred PM”) and handling of U.S. relations [8].
3. **Policy Focus**: The CPC’s emphasis on affordability resonates in the Prairies but struggles in Ontario/Quebec, where climate and social spending dominate [6][8].
—
## Projected Outcomes
– **Current Polling Average**: Liberals ~42%, CPC ~38% [10]. If maintained, this could translate to a **Liberal majority** (≈200 seats) [6].
– **Critical Vulnerabilities**: CPC’s low support in Quebec and urban Ontario limits seat gains despite strong national turnout [5][8].
For real-time updates, monitor official party websites and polling aggregators like [Abacus Data](https://abacusdata.ca) and [Nanos Research](https://nanos.co).
OpenAI gives a base rate of probability: (Carolyn’s note: OpenAI gave a verbal summary instead of a numerical base rate, see below.)
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 200
(Carolyn’s note: The elections are scheduled for April 28, 2025, in only 11 days.)
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was considered based on polling data which shows the Conservatives consistently trailing the Liberals at a national level and having significant weaknesses in vote-rich regions like Quebec and urban Ontario. Historically, shifting this level of support into substantial seat gains is challenging without major political developments.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional insights into district-level polling and the operational strategy of the CPC would be valuable. Access to micro-targeting campaign data, demographic shifts, and historical voting patterns would strengthen the forecast.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Factors that could lead the Conservatives to secure more than 205 seats include a late campaign swing in voter sentiment due to unforeseen events or a significant Liberal misstep. Additionally, any drastic changes in public opinion regarding key electoral issues such as the economy or international relations could alter outcomes significantly.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively: (Carolyn’s note: Meaning in favor of the Conservative party)
– The Conservative Party of Canada needs to win more than 205 seats in the upcoming federal election, which would require resources and effective campaigning in highly contested regions such as Ontario and Quebec. (Likelihood: Low) – Sufficient voter turnout in favor of the Conservative Party driven by key issues like affordability and dissatisfaction with the current government. (Likelihood: Medium)
– Strategic regional wins in provinces where they are currently trailing but have the potential to close gaps, especially in Ontario and British Columbia. (Likelihood: Low)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.45, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.45, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.15, “between 172 and 205”: 0.55, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
MAPD: Avg: 0.1, Max: 0.2
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 45%
* between 172 and 205: 35%
* between 206 and 240: 15%
* more than 240: 5%
The various AI analyses suggest that the Conservative Party faces considerable challenges in gaining a majority in the upcoming election, primarily due to its current polling at around 37-39% nationally and its weaker performance in critical regions like Ontario and Quebec, where the Liberals lead. The Conservatives hold strong support in the Prairies and British Columbia, but these areas alone do not offer enough seats to secure a majority. Historical trends and electoral inefficiencies, such as their vote distribution being strong in less vote-rich areas, further hinder their chances of obtaining more than 205 seats. However, this prediction might change if unforeseen events occur, such as shifts in public opinion, significant economic changes, or Liberal scandals, which could benefit the Conservatives and alter their current polling trajectory.
Guide to Jeremy’s Bots Reports (These don’t all apply to the current version of his bot.)
MAPD: Mean Absolute Percentage Deviation calculates the average percentage difference between actual values and predicted values, providing a relative measure of error.
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
