How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s April 28, 2025 parliamentary election?
What Phil Godzin’s pgodzinai bot forecasts today:
Summary:
The 338Canada projection of 126 seats (range: 95-160) suggests the highest probability should be assigned to “less than 130” seats, with a significant probability for “between 130 and 171” seats. The recent Liberal surge makes outcomes of 172+ seats for Conservatives extremely unlikely.
Based on the projection range and current trends, and accounting for polling uncertainty:
* less than 130: 65%
* between 130-171: 34%
* between 172-205: 1%
* between 206-240: 0%
* more than 240: 0%
Model’s Answer: # Analysis of the Conservative Party’s Prospects in Canadian Election
## Current Polling and Seat Projections
The most recent polling data from April 2025 shows the Liberals maintaining a lead over the Conservatives. According to the CBC Poll Tracker (April 15), Liberals hold a 6-7 point national lead. The Angus Reid poll from March 24 indicates an even larger gap with Liberals at 46% and Conservatives at 38%. A different projection cited by one research assistant shows Liberals at 42.4% versus Conservatives at 40.2%, translating to approximately 177 Liberal seats and 130 Conservative seats.
These numbers suggest that the Conservatives face an uphill battle to reach the 172-seat threshold needed for a majority government. The consistent Liberal lead across multiple polls provides strong evidence that, as of mid-April 2025, the Conservatives are unlikely to secure enough seats for an outright majority.
## Regional Dynamics
Regional performance is crucial for seat distribution in Canada’s parliamentary system:
1. **Ontario and Quebec**: These provinces contain the majority of seats in Parliament. According to the Angus Reid poll, Liberals lead in Ontario (by 7 points) and have substantial support in Quebec (49%). This Liberal strength in the two most seat-rich provinces creates a significant structural disadvantage for Conservatives.
2. **British Columbia**: The Vancouver Sun (April 17) reports Conservative gains in B.C., potentially threatening some traditionally safe Liberal/NDP seats. This could provide some offset to Conservative weaknesses elsewhere, but likely not enough to overcome deficits in Ontario and Quebec.
3. **Alberta**: This remains a Conservative stronghold, but with a limited number of seats compared to Ontario and Quebec, Conservative dominance here is expected but insufficient to dramatically change the national picture.
4. **Greater Toronto Area (GTA)**: Identified as a critical battleground where Conservatives would need to make significant gains from the Liberals, but current polling doesn’t suggest this is happening.
## External Factors
The “Trump effect” appears to be a significant factor in this election, with U.S. politics influencing Canadian voter sentiment. One research assistant mentions that 36% of respondents indicate this as the most important issue influencing their vote, which could further complicate Conservative efforts if this issue favors Liberal positioning.
Additionally, the Bloc Québécois leader has predicted a Liberal victory, suggesting their supporters are voting Liberal to prevent a Conservative win. This strategic voting pattern would further reduce Conservative prospects in Quebec.
## Historical Context and Time Considerations
With the election scheduled for April 28, 2024 (just 9 days from the forecast date), there is very limited time for significant shifts in voter intention. At this stage of an election campaign, polling tends to become more predictive, and dramatic shifts become less likely.
Canadian elections can see last-minute movements, but the consistent Liberal lead across multiple polls suggests a stable trend rather than a rapidly changing situation. The magnitude of the shift required for Conservatives to reach 172 seats would be unusual given the time constraints.
## Uncertainty Factors
Several elements add uncertainty to this forecast:
1. **Polling Error**: Canadian polls have had notable misses in past elections.
2. **Regional Variations**: Small shifts in key battleground ridings could alter outcomes.
3. **Turnout Patterns**: Differential turnout among supporter bases could impact results.
4. **Late-Breaking Events**: While unlikely to dramatically shift the race at this late stage, unexpected developments remain possible.
## Probability Distribution Analysis
Given all these factors, the most likely outcome is that the Conservatives will win between 130 and 171 seats. The lower end of this range aligns with several current projections (~130 seats), while the upper end would represent significant outperformance of current polling but still fall short of majority territory.
The probability of winning fewer than 130 seats is moderate, especially if the Liberal lead solidifies or expands in the final days. The likelihood of reaching the 172-205 range appears considerably smaller based on current data, requiring a substantial polling error or last-minute shift. Outcomes above 206 seats would represent a dramatic departure from current projections and historical precedents.
* less than 130: 28%
* between 130-171: 55%
* between 172-205: 15%
* between 206-240: 2%
* more than 240: 0%
Details here on how Phil’s Oracle achieved this forecast —>
