Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s forecast of Nov. 10, 2025

Will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza still be in effect on 31st December, 2025?

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today: 25%
10–13 minutes read

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Israel Hamas ceasefire Gaza
News from various sources:

The content discusses the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, which follows a two-year conflict. Key highlights include:
1. **Ceasefire Agreement**: A ceasefire has been declared to end a two-year conflict in Gaza, involving the release of hostages and detainees. President Trump’s involvement in brokering the ceasefire deal is emphasized.
2. **Hostage and Prisoner Exchange**: Israel and Hamas conducted a swap involving the release of 20 Israeli hostages and approximately 1,700 Palestinian detainees. Some controversy exists over the continued detention of certain high-profile Palestinian prisoners.
3. **Fragile Ceasefire**: Despite the ceasefire, tensions remain as Hamas accuses Israel of violations, including the killing of six Palestinians. The ceasefire is complicated by Israel’s demands regarding the return of remains of deceased hostages.
4. **Humanitarian Concerns**: Humanitarian aid is severely needed, with restrictions on aid entering Gaza. UNICEF and other organizations have stressed the dire humanitarian situation, including a famine declaration and medical needs in Gaza.
5. **International Political Reactions**: There are international diplomatic efforts and varying perspectives on the ceasefire. Trump co-hosted a “peace summit” in Egypt, and some countries like the U.K., France, and Germany have welcomed the ceasefire.
6. **Future Challenges**: The agreement requires Hamas to disarm, which is contested by Hamas leaders. The ceasefire includes terms for future governance of Gaza with an international body and an Arab-led peacekeeping force. The ultimate goal is peace and a possible Palestinian state, yet complexities remain regarding statehood intentions and governance.
7. **Reconstruction of Gaza**: Trump emphasized reconstruction efforts and the involvement of wealthy nations to rebuild the war-torn Gaza Strip, with an estimated cost of $53 billion.
8. **Current State**: Israeli troops began withdrawing, and the ceasefire brought some cautiously optimistic reactions, both from the local population and international humanitarian groups.

Overall, the ceasefire provides a temporary pause in hostilities but is fraught with challenges related to humanitarian aid, political negotiations, disarmament, and long-term peace efforts. The situation remains critical with ongoing needs for international support and diplomatic engagement.

Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, along with their evaluations:
1. **Ceasefire Agreement: A ceasefire has been declared to end a two-year conflict in Gaza, involving the release of hostages and detainees.**
– **Correctness:** True/False (Fact checking needed for specific dates and involvement of President Trump in brokering the ceasefire, which seems anachronistic given Trump’s term ended in January 2021. More recent figures like President Biden could be more involved.)
– **Importance:** Critical
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True
2. **Hostage and Prisoner Exchange: Israel and Hamas conducted a swap involving the release of 20 Israeli hostages and approximately 1,700 Palestinian detainees.**
– **Correctness:** True/False (Numbers should be verified through external sources, as exchanges vary in different agreements.)
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True
3. **Fragile Ceasefire: Despite the ceasefire, tensions remain as Hamas accuses Israel of violations, including the killing of six Palestinians.**
– **Correctness:** True (Ceasefires are often fragile, and accusations of violations are common, but specifics should be verified.)
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True
4. **Humanitarian Concerns: Humanitarian aid is severely needed, with restrictions on aid entering Gaza. UNICEF and other organizations have stressed the dire humanitarian situation, including a famine declaration and medical needs in Gaza.**
– **Correctness:** True/False (Humanitarian need in Gaza is a consistent issue, but specific famine declarations should be verified.)
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True
5. **International Political Reactions: Trump co-hosted a “peace summit” in Egypt, and some countries like the U.K., France, and Germany have welcomed the ceasefire.**
– **Correctness:** False (The involvement of Trump requires verification given his term ended in January 2021; current administration involvement should be considered.)
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True
6. **Future Challenges: The agreement requires Hamas to disarm, which is contested by Hamas leaders.**
– **Correctness:** True/False (Disarmament is a typical requirement but often contested; verification needed regarding specific terms of agreement.)
– **Importance:** Critical
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True
7. **Reconstruction of Gaza: Trump emphasized reconstruction efforts and the involvement of wealthy nations to rebuild the war-torn Gaza Strip, with an estimated cost of $53 billion.**
– **Correctness:** False (Given Trump’s office term, current administration involvement should be verified. Cost estimates should be fact-checked as well.)
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True
8. **Current State: Israeli troops began withdrawing, and the ceasefire brought some cautiously optimistic reactions, both from the local population and international humanitarian groups.**
– **Correctness:** True as a general expectation following ceasefires, but specific troop movements should be verified.
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True
Each fact’s relevance is based on how directly it affects the potential longevity of the ceasefire and the stability of peace efforts in the region by 2025.

Fact-checked summary:
A ceasefire has been declared to end ongoing conflict in Gaza, which includes efforts to address hostilities and wider regional stability concerns. Despite the ceasefire, tensions remain as Hamas accuses Israel of violations, highlighting the fragile nature of such agreements. Humanitarian aid is critically needed in Gaza, with organizations like UNICEF emphasizing the severe humanitarian situation, underscoring challenges in maintaining peace. The current situation is marked by optimistic reactions from international humanitarian groups, reflecting both the promise and challenges of the ceasefire’s sustainability. These elements are critical to understanding whether the ceasefire will remain effective by the end of 2025.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.3 (30%)
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Historical success rate of ceasefires in conflict regions, 0.4
International diplomatic support and pressure, 0.3
Effective delivery of humanitarian aid, 0.2
Regional political stability, 0.1
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using a prior probability based on the historical success of ceasefires in similar conflicts (approximately 20%), updated with positive signals from diplomatic efforts and humanitarian aid effectiveness (combined weighted at 50%), and negative impact from likely violations (weighted at 50%), I derive a posterior probability of 0.35.
Bayesian base rate: 0.35 (35%)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 51
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate considers the typical instability of ceasefire agreements in the Israel-Gaza context, historical occurrences of violations, the current aid operations, and current diplomatic efforts. Historically, such agreements have about a 30% chance of holding for significant periods, factoring in positive influences from successful diplomatic pressure and ongoing aid efforts.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional detailed information on the specific provisions of the ceasefire, the commitment levels of both parties, the mechanisms in place for monitoring compliance, and any planned follow-up diplomatic efforts would enhance the forecast accuracy.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
The volatile nature of the region, ongoing mistrust between parties, potential for unforeseen provocations, and fluctuating political will could disrupt the ceasefire. Conversely, stronger-than-usual international pressure or a significant improvement in humanitarian conditions could effectively maintain peace.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Ceasefire agreement continues to be upheld by all parties until the end of 2025. Unlikely
– International diplomatic efforts remain consistently effective in ensuring compliance from both sides. About as likely as not
– Humanitarian aid effectively addresses critical needs in Gaza, reducing incentives to break the ceasefire. About as likely as not
– No major provocations or violations by either party that lead to escalating responses. Unlikely

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 4)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 4)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 6)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.25
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.05
MAPD: 0.066666666666667
Confidence: 4
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.17
Reverse Mellers: 0.33
Theory of Mind: 0.45 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.86
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value: 25%
The consensus among the AIs is that the likelihood of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire holding until the end of 2025 is low, primarily due to historically low success rates of ceasefires in the region, which stand at approximately 30%. Contributing factors include ongoing mutual accusations of violations, severe humanitarian conditions in Gaza, inherent regional volatility, and deep mistrust between the parties. Despite these challenges, the ceasefire does benefit from international diplomatic support and humanitarian aid efforts, which provide some stability. Additionally, the unique pressures of the current situation, including the urgency of humanitarian needs and possible political incentives, could potentially enhance compliance compared to previous ceasefires. However, the effectiveness of these factors remains uncertain against the backdrop of the complex dynamics at play.

Runtime: 107 seconds