Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle, comprising Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, and OpenAI
Will the Federal Republic of Germany announce that it is in an economic recession by the end of 2026? On Oct. 28, 2024, his Multi-AI Oracle predicted: 30%
Details here —>
Will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza still be in effect on 31st December, 2025? On Oct. 27, 2025, his Multi-AI Oracle predicted: 65%
Details here —>
How many state-based conflict deaths (total of all civilian and combat deaths, including both Ukrainian and Russian combatants) will be reported by ACLED in Ukraine in October 2025? On Oct. 23, 2025, his Multi-AI Oracle predicted:
Less than 500: 5%
Between 500 and 1,000: 15%
Between 1,000 and 1,500: 30%
Between 1,500 and 2,000: 35%
Greater than 2,000: 15%
Details here —>
How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED for 2025? On Oct. 20, 2025, his Multi-AI Oracle predicted:
Less than 1,000: 1%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 5%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 16%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 26%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 31%
More than 12,000: 21%
Details here —>
How many state-based conflict deaths (total of all civilian and combat deaths, including both Ukrainian and Russian combatants) will be reported by ACLED in Ukraine in October 2025? On Oct. 16, his Multi-AI Oracle predicted:
Less than 500: 5%
Between 500 and 1,000: 15%
Between 1,000 and 1,500: 30%
Between 1,500 and 2,000: 35%
Greater than 2,000: 15%
Details here —>
How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED for 2025?
On Oct. 13, his Multi-AI Oracle predicted:
Less than 1,000: 1%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 5%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 12%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 22%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 28%
More than 12,000: 32%
Details here—>
How many state-based conflict deaths (total of all civilian and combat deaths, including both Ukrainian and Russian combatants) will be reported by ACLED in Ukraine in October 2025? On Oct. 9, 2025, his Multi-AI Oracle predicted:
Less than 500: 5%
Between 500 and 1,000: 20%
Between 1,000 and 1,500: 35%
Between 1,500 and 2,000: 25%
Greater than 2,000: 15%
Details here —>
Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of October 2025? Oct. 8, 2025, his Multi-AI Oracle predicted 25%
Details here —>
How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED for 2025?
Oct. 6, 2025, his Multi-AI Oracle predicted:
Less than 1,000: 1%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 5%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 16%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 26%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 31%
More than 12,000: 21%
Details here —>
How many state-based conflict deaths (total of all civilian and combat deaths, including both Ukrainian and Russian combatants) will be reported by ACLED in Ukraine in October 2025? Oct. 2, 2025, his Multi-AI Oracle predicted:
Less than 500: 5%
Between 500 and 1,000: 20%
Between 1,000 and 1,500: 35%
Between 1,500 and 2,000: 25%
Greater than 2,000: 15%
Details here —>
Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of October 2025? Oct. 1, 2025, his Multi-AI Oracle predicted 25%
Details here —>
Less than 1000: 1%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 5%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 10%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 19%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 30%
More than 12,000: 35%
Details here —>
How many state-based conflict deaths (total of all civilian and combat deaths, including both Ukrainian and Russian combatants) will be reported by ACLED in Ukraine in September 2025? Sept. 25, 2025, his Multi-AI Oracle predicted:
Less than 500: 5%
Between 500 and 1,000: 21%
Between 1,000 and 1,500: 37%
Between 1,500 and 2,000: 26%
Greater than 2,000: 11%
Details here —>
Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of September 2025? Sept. 24, 2025, his Multi-AI Oracle predicted 15%
Details here—>
Below, the final Metaculus AI Benchmark Tournament Q2 Leaderboard. Phillip Godzin’s pgozinai, highlighted in light orange, is #3! Colors code for previous holders of first place, excepting jbot, in yellow, belonging to Jeremy Lichtman.
Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai, comprising Perplexity, Grok, GPT, Anthropic (AKA Claude), and Gemini
Will the US announce a deal to deliver Tomahawks to Ukraine by the end of 2025?
On Oct. 27, 2025, his pgodzinai predicted: 10%
Details here —>
How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED in 2025? On Oct. 24, 2025, his pgodzinai predicted:
Less than 1,000: 0%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 0%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 1%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 15%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 70%
More than 12,000: 14%
Details here —>
Will the Federal Republic of Germany announce that it is in an economic recession by 31st December, 2026? On Oct. 23, 2025, his pgodzinai predicted 28%
Details here —>
Will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza still be in effect on 31st December, 2025? On Oct. 22, 2025, his pgodzinai predicted: 32%
Details here —>
Will the Haven-1 space habitat be launched in 2026? On Oct. 21, 2025, his pgodzinai predicted: 10%
Details here —>
Will the US announce a deal to deliver Tomahawks to Ukraine by the end of 2025?
Today, his pgodzinai predicted 10%
Details here —>
How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED in 2025? Oct. 17, 2025, his pgodzinai predicted:
Less than 1,000: 1%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 1%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 3%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 20%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 60%
More than 12,000: 15%
Details here —>
Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of October 2025?
On Oct. 16, his pgodzinai bot predicted 55%, but Anthropic was essentially correct at 92%.
Details here —>
How many state-based conflict deaths in Syria will be reported by ACLED for the month of October, 2025? On Oct. 15,. his pgodzinai predicted:
Less than 100: 4%
Between 100 and 250: 75%
Between 250 and 500: 20%
Between 500 and 1,000: 5%
Greater than 1,000: 1%
Details here —>
How many state-based conflict deaths (total of all civilian and combat deaths, including both Ukrainian and Russian combatants) will be reported by ACLED in Ukraine in October of 2025? On Oct. 14, 2025, his pgodzinai predicted:
Less than 500: 2%
Between 500 and 1,000: 53%
Between 1,000 and 1,500: 36%
Between 1,500 and 2,000: 7%
Greater than 2,000: 2%
Details here—>
Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 31 October 2025? On Oct. 13, his pgodzinai predicted 6%
Details here —>
How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED in 2025?
On Oct. 10, 2025, his pgodzinai predicted:
Less than 1,000: 1%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 2%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 12%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 65%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 15%
More than 12,000: 5%
Details here —>
How many state-based conflict deaths in Syria will be reported by ACLED for the month of October, 2025? On Oct. 9, 2025, his pgodzinai predicted:
Less than 100: 5%
Between 100 and 250: 65%
Between 250 and 500: 20%
Between 500 and 1,000: 8%
Greater than 1,000: 2%
Details here —>
Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of October 2025? Oct. 8, 2025, his pgodzinai predicted 52%
Details here —>
How many state-based conflict deaths (total of all civilian and combat deaths, including both Ukrainian and Russian combatants) will be reported by ACLED in Ukraine in October of 2025? Oct. 7, 2025, his pgodzinai predicted:
Less than 500: 2%
Between 500 and 1,000: 5%
Between 1,000 and 1,500: 18%
Between 1,500 and 2,000: 35%
Greater than 2,000: 40%
Details here —>
Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 31 October 2025? On Oct. 6, 2025, his pgodzinai bot predicted 7%
Details here —>
All his bot’s past forecasts here —>
News Briefs
Oct. 19-24, 2025: This is the week that was in AI: News briefs from twenty sources, gathered by our anonymous sleuth. 9–11 minutes read —>
AI news briefs, Oct. 12-18, 2025: Our team gleaned eighteen news briefs from sixteen sources, from “Everyone’s worrying about chips, the circular economy and the AI boom” to “Spot a Sora fake, while you still can.” 14–17 minutes read—>.
AI news briefs, Oct. 5 – 11, 2025. Our team gleaned twenty-seven briefs from sixteen sources, ranging from “we admit to being confused” through “Make America Deepfaked Again.”
12–15 minutes read —>.
AI news briefs, Sept. 29 — Oct. 4, 2025
From “AI-designed toxins slip through safety checks” through “Sam Altman’s $1 trillion AI gamble” 6–8 minutes read —>
AI news briefs, Sept. 21-27, 2025: news from “Struggling to Deploy AI Weapons” through “if OpenAI can’t pay Oracle, Oracle can’t pay NVIDIA, NVIDIA’s stock crashes, and suddenly 25% of the S&P 500 is in freefall.”
9–11 minutes read —>
News Briefs, Sept. 11-16, 2025
From “If Anyone Makes it, Everyone Dies” to “Playing the Field with my AI Boyfriends,” one heckuva week’s worth of briefs! 4–6 minutes read —>
News Briefs, Sept. 8-11, 2025: From “The Job Market Is Hell” through “AIs that Can’t Count the Rs in Strawberry.”
4–5 minutes read—>
News Briefs, Sept. 8, 2025: More AI Doomers vs Boosters
2–3 minutes read —>
News Briefs of Sept. 6-7: This was the weekend that was among AI Doomers vs Boosters. 4-5 minutes read —>
News Briefs, Sept. 2-5, 2025:
AI Doomers vs Boosters, in one dozen briefs. 5–7 minutes read —>
News Briefs, Sept. 1-2, 2025:
YouTube’s Covert AI Editing Experiment Won’t Be Its Last…and four more briefs —>
News Briefs, Aug. 30-31, and Sept. 1, 2025: News from Bloomberg, unlocked article; How to Prevent AI From Causing an Economic Catastrophe … and five more briefs —>
Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
Launched Sept. 1, 2025, it pits bots against “Community” humans and Pro forecasters.
Who will win this time, humans or a bot?
Metaculus’s Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament is over. Phil’s pgodzinai is the third place winner among the bots, but Pro Forecasters beat the bots.
Phil Godzin has joined Jeremy in our side competition with the VIEWS competition. He also ran his pgodzinai during the entire Metaculus AI Benchmark Competition, In the final quarter of 2024, Phil’s bot won third place, beating the ordinary human forecasters of the Metaculus Community. Overall, according to Carolyn‘s analysis, Phil’s pgodzinai was the bot that won the most points combined across the entire competition. See the full Q2 leaderboard over time at the foot of this page, or just the final leaderboard here —>
Results Analyzed and Reported from Metaculus’ Q1 AI Benchmark Tournament
Humans beat the bots again, pgodzinai came in #9. Final leaderboard here —>
Metaculus Q4 2024 Results: Pgodzinai Beat All Bots and Human Community Forecasters; Human Pros Barely Edged Win
Human pros beat the bots! But only just barely. Phil’s pgodzinai was the champion bot. Click here to see his Q4 win last year.
Question retired:
“Given the agreement of the US International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) to salary increases, both union and the port returned to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues. What’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.” Result: No strike with the parties making a final agreement. Botmaster Jeremy and Carolyn Meinel both kept on saying the Multi-AI Oracle was too high. So we humans won.
See all our forecasts here —>
More on Bestworldbot’s’s fate:
Our next step with bestworldbot has been using its for our bot or not projectClick here for our preliminary results.
We also have integrative complexity results on forecasting rationales written by a team of college graduates (Amazon Mturk prime workers) in the 2019 Hybrid Forecasting
Competition. These results substantiated our hypothesis that they used true reasoning in the rationales they wrote for that competition.
We additionally have results run by AutoIC based on the National Security Estimates written by participants in US National Security Council meetings in 1960 — 1961. These show strong results in all measures of integrative complexity. However, they were poor at aggregating probabilities, as shown by their resulting Bay of Pigs debacle.
Retired: At the end of Q3 of 2024, Jeremy’s bestworldbot finished #53 out of 55 competitors. That was down from #17 on Sept. 10 and having been #2 for twelve days. A likely explanation for bestworldbot’s collapse on the leaderboard is that in early September we began extremizing its forecasts, meaning that below 50%, we would decrease probabilities and above, increase. This was according to a formula (Mellers) proven to work well on humans. Well, we discovered that bestworldbot isn’t like an average human because extremizing made it worse.
