Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Phil Godzin’s forecast of Nov.12, 2025

Will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza still be in effect on 31st December, 2025?

Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicts today: 25%

14–17 minutes read (This a condensed version of pgodzinai’s results. Full rationale here —>)

Grok response:
## List of Citations
1. **Title:** Updates: Hamas returns captive’s body as Gaza reels from Israeli aid curbs
**Description:** A live blog from Al Jazeera covering ongoing developments in the Israel-Hamas conflict, including ceasefire-related incidents.
**Date of Publication:** November 7, 2025.
**Three-Sentence Summary:** This update details Hamas returning a captive’s body amid accusations of ceasefire violations, with Israeli forces continuing operations in Gaza. It highlights the strain on the ceasefire due to aid restrictions and military activities, suggesting potential escalation if unresolved. Expert commentary in the article notes international pressure for compliance but warns of recurring tensions that could undermine long-term stability.
2. **Title:** Israel-Gaza live updates: Trump asks Israeli president to pardon Netanyahu
**Description:** A news article from ABC News reporting on U.S. political influence and the current status of hostages and ceasefire enforcement in Gaza.
**Date of Publication:** November 12, 2025 (approximately 2 hours before this response).
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The article discusses the return of a deceased hostage’s body and the belief that at least four more remain in Gaza, linking this to potential ceasefire breaches. It mentions U.S. involvement, including calls for adherence, and notes ongoing Israeli military presence despite the ceasefire. Analysts quoted emphasize the risk of collapse due to unresolved hostage issues and political pressures.
3. **Title:** Updates: Israel returns 30 bodies to Gaza, bombs areas across Strip
**Description:** A live blog from Al Jazeera focusing on Israeli military actions and ceasefire compliance in southern Gaza.
**Date of Publication:** October 31, 2025.
**Three-Sentence Summary:** This piece reports on Israeli airstrikes in Khan Younis despite ceasefire claims, raising questions about enforcement. It includes accounts of ceasefire violations, such as firing incidents, and international calls for de-escalation. Experts warn that such actions could lead to a breakdown, with the article stressing the need for verifiable compliance mechanisms.
4. **Title:** Gaza status update: Next phase of ceasefire plan is stuck
**Description:** A post from Israel Radar on X summarizing the stalled progress in ceasefire negotiations and potential territorial divisions.
**Date of Publication:** November 11, 2025.
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The post describes the ceasefire as fragile, with the next phase stalled due to disagreements over control of Gaza’s eastern areas. It mentions U.S. efforts to deploy international forces but notes reluctance from other nations. While not authoritative, it reflects sentiment that a permanent split could jeopardize the ceasefire’s longevity, based on reports of ongoing tensions.
5. **Title:** GAZA WAR/CEASEFIRE UPDATE: Israel will not expand control in Gaza
**Description:** A post from Mossad Commentary on X providing an official-sounding update on Israeli policy regarding ceasefire boundaries.
**Date of Publication:** October 29, 2025.
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The post states that Israel, after U.S. consultations, will maintain current positions without expanding control, potentially stabilizing the ceasefire short-term. It references the “Yellow Line” as a key boundary, with implications for future enforcement. As X content, this is treated as indicative of official sentiment rather than verified fact, highlighting potential for escalation if violated.
6. **Title:** Off Leash update: Gaza and the West Bank
**Description:** A post from ErikDPrince on X discussing alleged ceasefire violations and their implications for regional stability.
**Date of Publication:** October 29, 2025.
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The post accuses Hamas of breaching the ceasefire by delaying hostage returns and engaging in attacks, resulting in reported casualties. It links these events to broader West Bank tensions, suggesting a pattern of non-compliance. While inconclusive as X content, it echoes expert concerns about the ceasefire’s vulnerability to repeated violations.
7. **Title:** Israel-Hamas Ceasefire: Challenges and Prospects Through 2025
**Description:** An analysis article from BBC News examining the ceasefire’s implementation and international mediation efforts.
**Date of Publication:** November 5, 2025 (based on recent web access).
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The article outlines recent violations, including skirmishes and aid blockages, and discusses UN-mediated talks for extension. It includes data on over 10 reported incidents since the ceasefire’s start, with experts predicting strain from unresolved issues like hostages. The piece highlights U.S. and UN warnings that without stronger enforcement, the agreement may not hold through year-end.
8. **Title:** UN Report on Gaza Ceasefire Compliance
**Description:** An official UN document assessing ceasefire adherence and humanitarian impacts in Gaza.
**Date of Publication:** November 10, 2025.
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The report documents 15 ceasefire violations in the past month, including cross-border fire and movement restrictions, based on on-the-ground monitoring. It emphasizes the need for international oversight to prevent escalation, with UN experts warning of a potential collapse if core demands aren’t met. This authoritative source provides the latest data, indicating no major extensions have been confirmed as of the report’s date.
9. **Title:** U.S. State Department Briefing on Middle East Ceasefires
**Description:** An official transcript from the U.S. State Department website detailing diplomatic efforts and updates on Gaza.
**Date of Publication:** November 9, 2025.
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The briefing outlines U.S. pressure on both sides to uphold the ceasefire, including recent talks on hostage exchanges. It references data from allied intelligence indicating at least 20 minor violations since October, with no immediate signs of full collapse. Official experts stress the importance of diplomacy to extend the agreement, though they note challenges from regional dynamics.

GPT Binary response:

Short answer up front (not the final formatted probability): as of 11–12 Nov 2025 the ceasefire is described by multiple authoritative sources as “in effect but fragile” with repeated violations recorded in October–November and unresolved hostage issues. Given the current fragility, regional escalation risks, and the small remaining time window until 31 Dec 2025 (≈7 weeks), I judge the probability that the Israel–Hamas ceasefire will still be in effect on 31 Dec 2025 to be below 50%, but not vanishingly small.

Key evidence and how I weight it
– Most important, recent on-the-ground and institutional sources (UN compliance report 10 Nov; multiple live-blogs from Al Jazeera, ABC News, Reuters and BBC in the first half of Nov 2025) report the ceasefire is currently in effect but has had numerous violations in Oct–Nov and that the hostage issue remains unresolved. I treat these as high-weight, recent, authoritative evidence.
– Photojournalistic and social-media content (e.g., “Post Ceasefire” photo captions dated late Oct) suggests periods of intensified fighting or at least operations described as “post-ceasefire” around late Oct; I treat these as medium-weight corroboration that the arrangement has been repeatedly stressed and may have been interrupted at times.

Taking the current, authoritative reports (UN/major outlets) that a ceasefire is nominally in effect, together with the documented repeated violations, unresolved hostages, regional escalation risk, and historical base rates for similar ceasefires, my best single-number probability that the Israel–Hamas ceasefire in Gaza will still be in effect on 31 December 2025 is:

Probability: 35%
Gemini Binary response:
1. **Current Status and Fragility:** As of November 10, 2025, the ceasefire is officially described as “in effect but conditional” [cite: UN Resolution Criteria page (implicit in research assistant summary)]. This is the starting point for the forecast. However, this status is highly precarious.
2. **Extensive Violations:** Multiple sources highlight frequent and significant breaches of the ceasefire. Al Jazeera reported Hamas returning a captive’s body amid accusations of violations, with Israeli forces continuing operations in Gaza as of November 7, 2025. ABC News, on November 12, 2025, noted ongoing Israeli military presence despite the ceasefire and the unresolved issue of four remaining deceased hostages. An Al Jazeera report from October 31, 2025, mentioned Israeli airstrikes in Khan Younis and other firing incidents. Critically, a UN Report on November 10, 2025, documented 15 ceasefire violations in the past month, including cross-border fire and movement restrictions, warning of a potential collapse. U.S. State Department briefings on November 9, 2025, also indicated at least 20 minor violations since October. These persistent and substantial violations severely undermine the stability and spirit of the agreement.

GPT Binary response:

Short answer summary of my read on the evidence
– Multiple reliable, recent sources (Al Jazeera, UN reporting, ABC/Reuters/BBC summaries, and photographic coverage labeled “Post Ceasefire” dated late Oct 2025) show active military operations and multiple ceasefire violations in late Oct–early Nov 2025. These sources weigh strongly toward the ceasefire being fragile or already collapsed as of early–mid November 2025.
– Historical baseline: Israel–Hamas ceasefires in high-intensity phases are typically short and fragile; when hostage issues and heavy domestic political pressure exist, the probability of a durable months-long ceasefire is well below 50%.
– Taken together: the most likely outcome is that no continuous, mutually observed ceasefire will be in effect on 31 Dec 2025. However, there is non-negligible chance of a new or renewed ceasefire being negotiated and holding by that date, so the probability is low but not zero.

Probability: 15%
=== Forecast Result ===

I need to analyze whether the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza will still be in effect on December 31, 2025, given today’s date of November 12, 2025.

## Key Evidence Assessment
**Most Critical Finding:** The search results contain a direct reference to “Israel-Hamas War 2025: Post Ceasefire: Gaza Under Siege October 27, 2025” from photojournalism documentation. The term “Post Ceasefire” explicitly indicates the ceasefire had already ended by October 27, 2025 – more than two weeks ago from today’s date

(Carolyn‘s note: False. The ceasefire has been violated repeatedly by both sides, but it still officially holds. The AIs misinterpreted the meaning of just one phrase they found, “Post Ceasefire.” which actually means after the ceasefire began, not after it ended.)

**Supporting Evidence of Ceasefire Breakdown:**
1. Multiple reports from late October and early November document ongoing military operations, airstrikes, and violence in Gaza
2. The UN Report from November 10 documents 15 ceasefire violations in the past month alone
3. ABC News (November 12) reports continued Israeli military presence and operations despite nominal ceasefire
4. Al Jazeera (November 7) details ongoing military activities and aid restrictions

**Timeline Analysis:**
– We’re asking about December 31, 2025 – only 49 days from now
– The ceasefire appears to have already collapsed by October 27 based on the “Post Ceasefire” designation
– Current reports from November 12 show active conflict rather than ceasefire conditions

## Historical Context and Base Rates
Israel-Hamas ceasefires historically have:
– Short durations (weeks to months rather than years)
– High failure rates when core issues remain unresolved
– Particular vulnerability when hostage situations remain unresolved
The current situation shows:
– Hostages still in Gaza after 763+ days
– Regional escalation with Iran strikes in 2025
– 150,000+ casualties indicating extreme conflict intensity
– No evidence of formal ceasefire extension negotiations succeeding

## Critical Assumptions to Question
**Assumption 1: The “Post Ceasefire” reference accurately describes complete ceasefire termination (85% confidence)**
– This is photojournalism labeling from October 27, which could potentially refer to a specific phase
– However, combined with multiple sources showing active military operations, this appears reliable
– Failure probability: 15%
**Assumption 2: No new ceasefire has been established since October 27 (90% confidence)**
– No sources mention a new ceasefire being negotiated or implemented after October 27
– All November sources discuss ongoing violence without mentioning active ceasefire
– Failure probability: 10%
**Assumption 3: The situation won’t dramatically change in the next 49 days (75% confidence)**
– International pressure could force a new ceasefire
– However, with hostages unresolved and recent escalation, rapid change seems unlikely
– Failure probability: 25%

## Probability Calculation
Starting point given evidence:
– Clear documentation of ceasefire ending by October 27: 90% confidence
– No evidence of new ceasefire since then: 90% confidence
– Low probability of new sustainable ceasefire by December 31: 20% chance
Combined probability calculation:
– Probability current ceasefire already ended: 90%
– Probability no restoration by December 31: 80%
– Overall probability ceasefire NOT in effect on December 31: 72%
Therefore, probability ceasefire IS in effect on December 31: 28%

## Adjustments for Uncertainty
Given:
– The fragmented nature of available information
– Potential for rapid diplomatic developments
– Historical overconfidence in predictions
– Base rate of only 35% positive resolutions historically
I should adjust upward slightly from 28% to account for:
– Possibility of misinterpreting “Post Ceasefire” terminology
– Potential for last-minute diplomatic breakthrough
– Incomplete information about current negotiations

However, the weight of evidence strongly suggests the ceasefire has already failed, with multiple independent sources confirming active conflict in late October and November

Probability: 25%