Botmasters Jeremy Lichtman and Phil Godzin on Geopolitical Topics
Phil on Ukraine conflict deaths, June 17, 2025
Jeremy Ukraine conflict deaths, June 17, 2025
Phil on India/Pakistan military clashes? June 16, 2025
Phil on Sudan conflict deaths, June 13, 2025
Jeremy Sudan conflict deaths, June 13, 2025
Phil on Syria conflict deaths, June 12, 2025
Jeremy Syria conflict deaths, June 12, 2025
Phil on an Israel/Hamas ceasefire, June 11, 2025
Jeremy an Israel/Hamas ceasefire, June 11, 2025
Phil on Ukraine conflict deaths, June 10, 2025
Jeremy on Ukraine conflict deaths, June 10, 2025
Phil on India/Pakistan conflict deaths, June 9, 2025
Jeremy on India/Pakistan conflict deaths, June 9, 2025
Phil on Sudan conflict deaths, June 6, 2025
Jeremy on Sudan conflict deaths, June 6, 2025
Phil on Syria conflict deaths, June 5, 2025
Jeremy on Syria conflict deaths, June 5, 2025
Phil on Israel/Hamas ceasefire, June 4, 2025
Jeremy on Israel/Hamas ceasefire, June 4, 2025
Jeremy on Ukraine conflict deaths, June 3, 2025
Jeremy on Ukraine conflict deaths, June 3, 2025
Phil on Ukraine conflict deaths, June 3, 2025
Jeremy on Ukraine conflict deaths, June 3, 2025
Phil on Sudan conflict deaths, May 30, 2025
Jeremy on Sudan conflict deaths, May 30, 2025
Phil on Syria conflict deaths, May 29, 2025
Jeremy on Syria conflict deaths, May 29, 2025
Phil on Israel/Hamas ceasefire, May 28, 2025
Jeremy on Israel/Hamas ceasefire, May 28, 2025
Phil on Ukraine conflict deaths, May 27, 2025
Phil on India/Pakistan military clashes? May 26, 2025
Jeremy on India/Pakistan military clashes? May 26, 2025
Phil on Sudan conflict deaths, May 23, 2025
Jeremy on Sudan conflict deaths, May 23, 2025
Phil on Syria conflict deaths, May 22, 2025
Jeremy on Syria conflict deaths, May 22, 2025
Jeremy on the likelihood of an Israel/Hamas ceasefire, May 21, 2025
Phil on the likelihood of an Israel/Hamas ceasefire, May 21, 2025
Jeremy on Ukraine conflict deaths, May 20, 2025
Phil on Ukraine conflict deaths, May 20, 2025
Jeremy on India/Pakistan clashes, May 19, 2025
Phil on India/Pakistan clashes, May 19, 2025
Jeremy on state-based conflict deaths in Sudan, May 16, 2025
Phil on Sudan conflict deaths, May 16, 2025
Jeremy on state-based Syria conflict deaths, May 15, 2025
Phil on state-based conflict deaths in Syria, May 15, 2025
Jeremy on a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, May 14, 2025
Phil on a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, May 14, 2025
Jeremy on May 2025 conflict deaths in Ukraine, May 13, 2025
Phil on May 2025 conflict deaths in Ukraine, May 13, 2025
Phil on India/Pakistan clashes, May 12, 2025
Jeremy on India/Pakistan clashes, May 12, 2025
Phil on Sudan conflict deaths, May 9, 2025
Jeremy on Sudan conflict deaths, May 9, 2025
Phil on Syria conflict deaths, May 8, 2025
Jeremy on Syria conflict deaths, May 8, 2025
Jeremy on Israel/Hamas ceasefire, May 7, 2025
Phil on Israel/Hamas ceasefire, May 7, 2025
Jeremy on Ukraine conflict deaths, May 6, 2025
Phil on Ukraine conflict deaths, May 6, 2025
Jeremy on India/Pakistan clash, May 5, 2025
Phil on India/Pakistan clash, May 5, 2025
Jeremy on Sudan, May 2, 2025
Phil on Sudan, May 2, 2025
Jeremy on Sudan, May 1, 2025
Phil on Sudan, May 1, 2025
Jeremy on Sudan, April 30, 2025
Phil on Sudan, April 30, 2025
Jeremy on Sudan, April 29, 2025
Phil on Sudan, April 29, 2025
Phil on Canada Elections, April 28, 2025
Phil on Sudan, April 28, 2025
Jeremy on Canada Elections, April 28, 2025
Jeremy on Sudan, April 28, 2025
Phil on Canada Elections, April 25, 2025
Phil on Sudan, April 25, 2025
Jeremy on Canada Elections, April 25, 2025
Jeremy on Sudan, April 25, 2025
Phil on Canada Elections, April 24, 2025
Phil on Sudan, April 24, 2025
Jeremy on Canada Elections, April 24, 2025
Jeremy on Sudan, April 24, 2025
Phil on Canada Elections, April 23, 2025
Phil on Sudan, April 23, 2025
Jeremy on Canada elections, April 23, 2025
Phil on Canada Elections, April 22, 2025
Jeremy on Canadian elections, April 22,
Phil on Canada elections, April 21, 2025
Jeremy on Canada elections, April 21, 2025
Jeremy on Sudan conflict deaths, April 21, 2024
Phil on Sudan conflict deaths, April 21, 2025
Phil on Canada elections, April 21, 2025
Jeremy on Canada elections, April 19, 2024
Phil on Canada elections, April 19, 2025
Jeremy on Sudan conflict deaths, April 19, 2024
Phil on on Sudan conflict deaths, April 19, 2025
Jeremy on Canada elections, April 18, 2025
Phil on Sudan conflict deaths, April 18, 2025
Phil on Canada elections, April 18, 2025
Phil’s Pgodzinai Bot, Full Outputs on Geopolitical Topics
Ukraine conflict deaths, June 17, 2025
India/Pakistan casulaties? June 16, 2025
Sudan conflict deaths, June 13, 2025
Syria conflict deaths, June 12, 2025
Israel/Hamas ceasefire? June 11, 2025
Ukraine conflict deaths, June 10, 2025
India/Pakistan conflict deaths, June 9, 2025
Sudan conflict deaths, June 6, 2025
Syria conflict deaths, June 5, 2025
Israel/Hamas ceasefire, June 4, 2025
Ukraine conflict deaths, June 3, 2025
Sudan conflict deaths, May 30, 2025
Syria comflict deaths, May 29, 2025
Israel/Hamas ceasefire, May 28, 2025
Ukraine conflict deaths, May 27, 2025
India/Pakistan clashes, May 26, 2025
Sudan conflict deaths, May 23, 2025
Syria conflict deaths, May 22, 2024
Israel/Hamas Ceasefire, May 21, 2025
Ukraine conflict deaths, May 20, 2025
India/Pakistan clashes, May 19, 2025
Sudan conflict deaths, May 16, 2025
Syria conflict deaths, May 15, 2025
Israel/Hamas ceasefire, May 14, 2025
Ukraine conflict deaths, May 13, 2025
India/Pakistan clashes, May 12, 2025
Sudan conflict deaths, May 9, 2025
Syria conflict deaths, May 8, 2025
Israel/Hamas ceasefire, May7, 2025
Ukraine conflict deaths, May 6, 2025
India/Pakistan clash, May 5, 2024
Sudan conflict deaths, May 2, 2025
Sudan conflict deaths, April 30, 2025
Sudan conflict deaths, April 29, 2025
Canada elections, April 28, 2025
Sudan conflict deaths, April 28, 2025
Canada elections, April 25, 2025
Sudan conflict deaths, April 25, 2025
Canada elections, April 24, 2025
Sudan conflict deaths, April 24, 2025
Canada Elections, April 23, 2025
Sudan conflct deaths, April 23, 2025
Canada elections, April 22, 2024
Susan conflict deaths, April 22, 2025
Canada elections, April 21, 2024
Sudan conflict deaths, April 21, 2024
Canada elections, April 19, 2024
Sudan conflict deaths, April 19, 2024
BestWorld’s Humans vs Multi-AI Panel Experiment of July 25 — Sept. 18, 2024
Carolyn Meinel, Michael DeVault, and Brian LaBatte vs GenAI bots by Jeremy Lichtman. Topic: “What is the probability that the US Federal Reserve Board will cut interest rates in September 2024?” We humans won.
The answer: Sept. 18, 2024, the US FED lowered its key overnight borrowing rate by a half percentage point, or 50 basis points, a huge cut compared to the usual quarter point changes, and the first cut since 2020.
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Summary of all our human’s and bot’s forecasts on the FED rate hike: We stopped reporting the Multi-AI Panel on Sept. 13. Its final answer was 85%, up from the previous day’s 75%. As of Sept. 18, Old Bot had dropped from 85% to just 55%. Our staffers remained at 84% median, 95% with extremizing via one of Prof. Barbara Meller’s algorithms. This includes the effect of our earlier, lower forecasts. Our final spot forecasts on Sept. 12th and were 98% for Brian, 99% for Carolyn.
The record of our staff forecasts is below. Note that our spreadsheet also includes some of our bots.
Forecasts on both Sudan and Canada’s election from Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman
Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle was pretty good at forecasting the election, quickly picking up on the collapse of the Conservative Party in response to threats by Donald Trump.
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What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
June 13, 2025: President Trump Approves Historic Partnership between U. S. Steel and Nippon Steel
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. What’s the probability of a strike by the Longshoremen in the USA Q1 2025?
Result: The final stamp of approval for a new six-year Master Contract Agreement between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), was secured Feb. 25, 2025 as ILA rank-and-file members, working at ports on the Atlantic and Gulf Coast Ports, overwhelmingly ratified the landmark agreement. The extension to the Master Contract will be effective October 1, 2024, through September 30, 2030.
Source: https://www.iladistrict.com/ila-ratifies-six-year-master-contract-with-nearly-99-approval-record-wage-increases-automation-protections-until-2030/
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Pictured below, the leaderboard from beginning to end of the Q4 Metaculus AI Benchmark Competition. The winner, BestWorld’s Phillip Godzin, is highlighted in orange. He didn’t just win — he won with twice the points of the nearest competitor.
