How many state-based conflict deaths will be reported in Sudan by ACLED in 2025?
Here’s what Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicts today:
Less than 1000: 2%
Between 1000 and 3000: 5%
Between 3000 and 5000: 12%
Between 5000 and 8000: 28%
Between 8000 and 12000: 40%
More than 12000: 13%
Perplexity response:
{think}
Alright, let’s tackle this query step by step. The user is asking how many state-based conflict deaths ACLED will report in Sudan in 2025, with specific options. First, I need to check the provided search results for any mention of ACLED data or statistics related to Sudan in 2025.
Looking through the sources:
1. The first source from May 16, 2025, compares crime in South Africa to conflict zones, mentioning ACLED data from 2017 and Oxfam’s 2024 stats for Afghanistan and Syria. No direct info on Sudan here.
2. The second source from May 23, 2025, discusses Ethiopia, focusing on humanitarian updates, education, and health initiatives. Mentions Sudan in the context of datasets but not state-based conflict deaths in 2025.
3. The third source from May 17, 2025, is about Sudan datasets related to hazards, floods, diseases, and conflict. It’s a planning tool but doesn’t specify 2025 numbers.
4. The fourth source, a PDF from May 20, 2025, references ACLED in discussing conflict hotspots in 2023, including Sudan. However, it’s about food crises and past data (2023), not projections for 2025.
5. The fifth source from May 22, 2025, lists Sudan humanitarian datasets but doesn’t provide specific death numbers.
None of the provided search results have current ACLED data for Sudan in 2025. The latest Sudan-related info is from 2023 in the PDF. Since the available data doesn’t include 2025 figures, I can’t directly cite any numbers. The user’s provided links to ACLED’s Sudan pages aren’t accessible here, so I can’t pull the latest stats from there either.
Therefore, based on the given sources, there’s no specific information to determine the exact number of state-based conflict deaths in Sudan for 2025. The answer would need to rely on historical trends, but without recent data, it’s speculative. The options provided suggest a range, but without updated ACLED reports, the answer can’t be definitively determined from the provided search results.
**Relevant Sources and Summaries**
1. **”South Africa’s Crime Outpaces Certain Global Conflict Zones” (May 16, 2025)**
Discusses ACLED and Oxfam data comparing South Africa’s crime rates to conflict zones like Gaza, Syria, and Afghanistan. Mentions ACLED’s 2017 data for Afghanistan (14,000 deaths) and Oxfam’s 2024 figures for Syria (96.5 daily deaths) and Afghanistan (23.8 daily deaths). No direct Sudan data, but highlights ACLED’s methodology for conflict tracking[1].
2. **”Ethiopia Updates | ReliefWeb” (May 23, 2025)**
Focused on Ethiopia’s humanitarian crises, including conflict-related fatalities in Amhara and Oromia regions. Mentions Sudan’s datasets in the context of humanitarian response but lacks specific 2025 death tolls[2].
3. **”Ocha Sudan Humanitarian Datasets” (May 17, 2025)**
Provides Sudan datasets for hazards, disease outbreaks, and conflicts. Designed for planning but does not include 2025 death counts[3].
4. **”FSIN Joint Analysis for Better Decisions” (PDF, May 20, 2025)**
Mentions ACLED in analyzing 2023 conflict hotspots, including Sudan and Gaza. States that food crises escalated in conflict zones but provides no 2025 projections[4].
5. **”Crisis Response Datasets | HDX – Sudan” (May 22, 2025)**
Lists 418 Sudan-specific datasets but does not specify state-based conflict deaths for 2025[5].
—
**Analysis**
The provided sources lack explicit data on **state-based conflict deaths in Sudan for 2025**. ACLED’s conflict monitoring in 2023–2024 focused on countries like Gaza, Syria, and Afghanistan, with Sudan mentioned only in general humanitarian contexts (e.g., datasets). For example:
– The PDF references ACLED’s analysis of 2023 conflicts but does not extend to 2025[4].
– Sudan datasets (e.g., OCHA’s May 17 update) focus on risk assessments rather than death tolls[3].
**Key Gaps**
1. **No 2025 Projections**: No source cites ACLED’s 2025 estimates for Sudan.
2. **Historical Context**: ACLED’s past reports (e.g., 2017, 2023) track conflicts but lack Sudan-specific trends.
3. **Regional Comparisons**: The May 16 article highlights Oxfam’s 2024 data for Syria (23.8 daily deaths) and Afghanistan (20 per 100,000), but Sudan’s data remains unspecified[1][4].
**Resolution Context**
Given the absence of explicit 2025 data, resolution relies on extrapolating trends. However, without direct ACLED statistics or recent Sudan-specific reports, selecting an option requires inferring from:
– **Option ranges** (e.g., “Between 8000 and 12000”) necessitate awareness of Sudan’s conflict intensity.
– **Regional Conflict Rates**: For example, Syria’s 2024 rate (~96.5 deaths/day) would equate to ~35,200 annually[1], but Sudan’s context differs.
**Conclusion**
The provided sources do not contain sufficient data to select a precise answer. For a definitive resolution, direct consultation with ACLED’s Sudan-specific reports (linked in the query’s background) would be required.
AskNews Deep Search Response:
The most recent available data for Sudan’s conflict as of May 2025 highlights an escalating crisis but does not yet provide definitive ACLED-reported state-based conflict death totals for 2025. Key contextual updates include:
1. **Persistent High Casualties**: ACLED has documented record violence in Sudan since 2023, with the October–December 2024 quarter alone seeing over 700 violent events targeting civilians, a 78% increase compared to early 2024 [17][15]. By January 2025, attacks on hospitals and markets caused 120+ deaths in single incidents [23].
2. **Humanitarian Collapse**: Over 25 million Sudanese (half the population) face acute hunger, and 17 million children lack education, worsening conflict-driven vulnerabilities [37]. These conditions correlate with higher civilian mortality.
3. **ACLED’s 2025 Forecast**: While no specific Sudan figure is published, ACLED globally projects a 20% rise in organized violence by 2025 [1][6]. In Sudan, fragmentation of armed groups (e.g., RSF vs. SAF) and ethnic targeting [22][23] suggest fatalities could align with recent trends (e.g., ~18,000 deaths reported from April 2023–May 2025 in earlier data) [2][9].
4. **Current 2025 Data Gaps**: The latest ACLED update cited (May 23, 2025) focuses on global trends but does not specify Sudan’s 2025 totals [1][6]. ReliefWeb and UN reports through May 2025 emphasize extreme violence but lack aggregated death counts [2][4][5].
**Critical Uncertainty**: ACLED’s 2025 Sudan page ([Conflict Watchlist 2025] (https://acleddata.com/conflict-watchlist-2025/sudan/)) is not directly accessed here, but contextual reports suggest fatalities are likely to fall in the **”Between 5000 and 8000″** range due to sustained high-intensity conflict, though escalation risks (e.g., famine, disease) might push numbers higher. Earlier 2024 data (e.g., 153,000 global conflict deaths [1]) and Sudan’s outsized share of fatalities support this estimate.
**Limitations**: Inconsistent aid access and underreporting in conflict zones mean actual deaths may exceed official counts. Final resolution should defer to ACLED’s forthcoming 2025 data.
GPT News Summary:
Here’s a detailed rundown of the most relevant information from the recent sources concerning the ongoing conflict in Sudan, which may aid in forecasting the number of state-based conflict deaths in 2025 as reported by ACLED:
1. **Escalating Violence and Instability in Sudan**: The ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has resulted in significant violence and instability across Sudan, particularly in Khartoum, North Darfur, and the states of Kordofan and Darfur (Swissinfo – May 22, 2025). Recent reports indicate that the SAF captured various strategic locations in Khartoum (ReliefWeb – March 8, 2025).
2. **Conflict Impact on Civilians**: The humanitarian situation in Sudan is dire, with over 13 million displaced people and atrocious acts committed against civilians, including mass rapes and abductions (AllAfrica – May 21, 2025). The RSF is accused of attacking medical facilities and targeting aid workers. There have been 481 civilian deaths reported in North Darfur since April 10, 2025 (AllAfrica – May 21, 2025).
3. **Destruction of Infrastructure**: The conflict has severely affected public infrastructure, including healthcare facilities. There have been 603 attacks on Sudan’s healthcare system from April 2023 to the end of April 2025, resulting in significant damage to health facilities and the deaths of healthcare workers (ReliefWeb – May 22, 2025).
4. **Health Crisis Exacerbated by Conflict**: The ongoing airstrikes and the resultant power and water shortages have exacerbated health crises, including severe cholera outbreaks. In Khartoum, over 2,300 cholera cases were reported over the past three weeks, with 51 associated deaths (Swissinfo – May 22, 2025).
5. **ACLED and Conflict Deaths Data**: The SAF and RSF conflict has reported at least 11,292 attacks and 32,973 deaths since its onset in April 2023. The data indicate that half of these deaths have occurred in Khartoum and North Darfur (Al Jazeera – April 14, 2025).
6. **Global Context and Implications**: The global conflict landscape is at its most violent since World War II, as per the Global Peace Index and ACLED data. The global death toll from conflicts has seen a significant rise, with the Middle East, Africa, and Asia experiencing elevated death tolls (NZ Herald – May 22, 2025; The Telegraph – May 22, 2025).
Given these conditions, high levels of violence and instability, coupled with humanitarian crises, are likely to continue affecting the civilian population throughout 2025. This ongoing turmoil may continue to result in a significant number of state-based conflict deaths, which ACLED will record by the end of the year.
Model’s Answer:
.
### Prediction Model
Based on the monthly average of reported deaths and the current conflict dynamics, I can project the likely range for ACLED-reported state-based conflict deaths in Sudan for 2025:
1. **Average Monthly Rate**: The 30,813 deaths over 20 months (April 2023-December 2024) gives an average of approximately 1,540 deaths per month.
2. **2025 Patterns**: The first few months of 2025 have seen continued high-intensity conflict, with the SAF recapturing territory but the RSF continuing attacks in various regions. The weekly data suggests conflict levels similar to or slightly lower than late 2024.
3. **Forecasting Scenarios**:
– **Low Estimate**: If the conflict gradually de-escalates (due to SAF gains or international pressure), deaths might average 1,000-1,200 per month (6,000-7,200 for 2025).
– **Baseline Estimate**: If current patterns continue with similar intensity, deaths would average 1,500-1,700 per month (9,000-10,200 for 2025).
– **High Estimate**: If the conflict intensifies or expands to new regions, deaths could average 1,800-2,000+ per month (10,800-12,000+ for 2025).
Given the ongoing high intensity of the conflict, recent territorial shifts, and the SAF’s current offensive, the most likely scenario falls between the baseline and high estimates, with ACLED-reported state-based conflict deaths for 2025 most likely to be between 8,000 and 12,000.
Model’s Answer:
.
### Prediction Model
Based on the monthly average of reported deaths and the current conflict dynamics, I can project the likely range for ACLED-reported state-based conflict deaths in Sudan for 2025:
1. **Average Monthly Rate**: The 30,813 deaths over 20 months (April 2023-December 2024) gives an average of approximately 1,540 deaths per month.
2. **2025 Patterns**: The first few months of 2025 have seen continued high-intensity conflict, with the SAF recapturing territory but the RSF continuing attacks in various regions. The weekly data suggests conflict levels similar to or slightly lower than late 2024.
3. **Forecasting Scenarios**:
– **Low Estimate**: If the conflict gradually de-escalates (due to SAF gains or international pressure), deaths might average 1,000-1,200 per month (6,000-7,200 for 2025).
– **Baseline Estimate**: If current patterns continue with similar intensity, deaths would average 1,500-1,700 per month (9,000-10,200 for 2025).
– **High Estimate**: If the conflict intensifies or expands to new regions, deaths could average 1,800-2,000+ per month (10,800-12,000+ for 2025).
Given the ongoing high intensity of the conflict, recent territorial shifts, and the SAF’s current offensive, the most likely scenario falls between the baseline and high estimates, with ACLED-reported state-based conflict deaths for 2025 most likely to be between 8,000 and 12,000.
## Final Probability Distribution
Based on the comprehensive analysis, here is my forecast for how many state-based conflict deaths will be reported by ACLED in Sudan in 2025:
Less than 1000: 2%
Between 1000 and 3000: 5%
Between 3000 and 5000: 12%
Between 5000 and 8000: 28%
Between 8000 and 12000: 40%
More than 12000: 13%
Full details of Phil’s Syria forecast of today —>
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
Below, a forecast of state-based conflict fatalities for Sudan in the VIEWS machine forecasting competition, which is an aggregate of the forecasts of twenty competitors. Our botmasters, Phil Godzin and Jeremy Lichtman, are conducting a side experiment in collaboration with VIEWS.
Below, control of terrain in Sudan. Source: https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/salafi-jihadi-movement-weekly-update
