How many state-based conflict deaths (total of all civilian and combat deaths, including both Ukrainian and Russian combatants) will be reported by ACLED in Ukraine in July, 2025?
Here’s what Phil’s pgodzinai predicts today:
Less than 500: 3%
Between 500 and 1000: 15%
Between 1,000 and 1,500: 45%
Between 1,500 and 2,000: 27%
Greater than 2000: 10%
14–18 minutes read
Perplexity response:
{think}
1. **ACLED Ukraine Conflict Monitor (July 16, 2025)**
– Covers conflict data up to July 11, 2025. Reports 53 civilian deaths (Russian actions) and 4 (Ukrainian actions) from July 5–11. Highlights Russian advances in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, and Sumy. Combines civilian and combatant data[1].
– *Summary*: Russian military activity intensified in eastern/southern regions, with escalating civilian casualties. Battlefront advances and drone/missile strikes dominate trends.
2. **ACLED Situation Update (June 28–July 4, 2025)**
– Records 42 civilian deaths (Russian actions) and 8 (Ukrainian actions). Notes Russian territorial gains in Donbas and strike campaigns in western Ukraine[2][4].
– *Summary*: Russian forces consolidated gains near Donetsk-Pokrovsk-k and Kharkiv-Sumy border. Missile/drone strikes targeted western regions, causing civilian harm.
3. **ReliefWeb NGO Statement (July 16, 2025)**
– Highlights April 2025 as the deadliest month with **209 civilian deaths** (23% ↑ from March) and 1,146 injuries. Warns of sustained high casualties in July[3].
– *Summary*: Civilian harm reached record levels in April, driven by indirect fire and strikes. Nongovernmental organizations emphasize urgent need to protect civilians.
4. **ACLED Data via ReliefWeb (July 17, 2025)**
– Reiterates June 28–July 4 data: 42 Russian-linked civilian deaths and 8 Ukrainian-linked. Identifies patterns of strikes in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Odesa[4].
– *Summary*: Geographic focus on southern/central regions, with bombardment exacerbating civilian suffering in frontline areas.
—
**Analysis for July 2025 Projections**
Recent ACLED data shows **~42–53 civilian deaths per week** (Russian actions) and **4–8 Ukrainian-linked civilian deaths** (same period). If this rate persists, July’s civilian toll could reach **~200–300** (excluding combatants).
**Combatant Deaths**: While not explicitly quantified in the search results, ACLED’s inclusion of frontline clashes (e.g., Russian advances in Donetsk) implies significant combatant fatalities. Historical patterns suggest combatant deaths often outpace civilian losses by 3:1 to 5:1 in asymmetric conflicts.
Grok response:
1. **Title:** Ukraine Conflict Monitor
**Description:** ACLED’s dedicated platform for real-time data on the Ukraine war, including an interactive map and weekly updates on political violence.
**Date:** July 2, 2025
**Summary:** This monitor provides near real-time tracking of conflict events, including state-based violence deaths, from the start of the invasion. It reports on civilian and combat fatalities, with data showing a rise in events during early July 2025. The platform emphasizes the cumulative impact of Russian strikes, offering tools for analyzing trends in Ukraine.
2. **Title:** Russia’s Bombing Campaign is Killing Record Numbers of Ukrainian Civilians
**Description:** An analysis by the Atlantic Council on escalating civilian casualties due to Russian airstrikes.
**Date:** July 14, 2025
**Summary:** The article highlights June 2025 as the deadliest month for Ukrainian civilians in over three years, with data from UN sources indicating a surge in deaths. It discusses the broader implications for state-based conflict, including combatant losses, and attributes the increase to intensified Russian missile attacks. Experts warn that this trend could persist into July, potentially raising total deaths.
3. **Title:** Casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War
**Description:** A Wikipedia page compiling estimates of military and civilian casualties from various official sources.
**Date:** July 13, 2025 (last updated)
**Summary:** The page aggregates data from UN and government reports, estimating over 1 million total casualties (including combatants) since 2022, with recent updates showing high losses in mid-2025. It notes that Russian forces have suffered significant deaths in offensive operations, while Ukrainian civilian fatalities have spiked due to aerial bombardments. This serves as a reference for historical context but relies on verified sources like ACLED for real-time accuracy.
4. **Title:** Civilian Casualties in Ukraine Reach Three-Year High in June, UN Human Rights Monitors Say
**Description:** A UN report on the protection of civilians in the Ukraine conflict, focusing on recent trends.
**Date:** July 10, 2025
**Summary:** The report details 232 civilian deaths and 1,343 injuries in June 2025, attributing them to a tenfold increase in Russian missile and drone strikes compared to June 2024. It includes data on combatant losses, suggesting total state-based deaths could exceed previous months due to ongoing frontline engagements. UN experts urge immediate action, noting that early July patterns indicate sustained high violence.
5.. **Title:** Ukraine: AOAV Explosive Violence Data on Harm to Civilians
**Description:** Action on Armed Violence (AOAV) report tracking casualties from explosive weapons in the Ukraine conflict.
**Date:** July 17, 2025
**Summary:** The report records 43,117 total casualties (including 38,756 civilians) from explosive incidents up to mid-July 2025, with a focus on recent spikes in deaths. It correlates these figures with state-based conflict data from sources like ACLED, showing increased combatant losses in border regions. Experts from AOAV emphasize the humanitarian impact, warning of further rises as Russian operations continue.ian and combat deaths, noting an uptick in Russian losses from Ukrainian counterattacks. Experts quoted in the piece express concern over escalating tactics, potentially leading to higher totals.
AskNews Deep Search Response:
Based on the most recent available data and contextual analysis up to July 22, 2025:
**Citations Summary**
[1] July 22, 2025: Drone warfare escalation (117 drones intercepted) caused civilian displacement but minimal direct fatalities ([1][3]).
[2] July 22, 2025: 35 Ukrainian drones intercepted and 43 Russian drones destroyed overnight ([2][8]).
[3] July 22, 2025: Russian aerial assaults killed 2 civilians, injured 15 in Kyiv ([3][16]).
[6][9][10] July 21, 2025: Disputed military death tolls, with claims of hidden Ukrainian casualties (46,000+ alleged unreported) ([6][9][10]).
[7] July 21, 2025: UN confirmed June 232 civilian deaths (+1,343 injuries), citing June as worst month since 2022 ([7][16][21][27]).
[12][14][15] July 17, 2025: OSCE reported 50%+ YoY increase in H1 2025 casualties; June saw 539 drones/missiles in single attacks ([12][14][15]).
[16] July 16, 2025: UN reported July 139 civilian deaths/791 injuries by mid-month ([16][24]).
[18] July 14, 2025: ACLED CAST Report forecasted sustained conflict patterns but lacked July-specific projections ([18]).
[23][24] July 10-11, 2025: Russian drone/rocket barrages (397+ Shahed drones) caused concentrated urban casualties ([23][24]).
[32][33] June 30-July 1, 2025: Short-range drone attacks drove 37% YoY increase in fatalities ([32][33]).
**Key Observations**
1. **Trend Acceleration**: June 2025 saw 232 civilian deaths (UN) ([7][16]), while early July already recorded 139 civilian fatalities by mid-month ([16][24]).
2. **New Tactics**: Swarm drone warfare and long-range strikes ([1][3][15][24]) increased infrastructure damage but showed mixed lethality.
3. **Underreporting Risks**: Multiple sources ([6][9][10]) emphasize Ukraine’s alleged military death undercounting, though ACLED’s methodology is unclear.
4. **No Ceasefire Signals**: Peace talks remained speculative ([4][8]), with Russia escalating strikes to “gain leverage” per U.S. and OSCE assessments ([3][12][14]).
**Proxy Indicators**
– June 2025 baseline: 232 civilian deaths (UN) + ~1,000+ estimated combatant deaths ([6][10]).
– 50% escalation rate (per OSCE H1 data) suggests July deaths could reach ~350 civilians + combatants. However, ACLED’s methodology (combatant inclusion criteria) is critical.
GPT News Summary:
1. **Recent Increase in Hostilities:**
– On July 21, 2025, Russia launched a significant aerial assault on Ukraine, killing 2 people and injuring 15, indicating ongoing intense military operations (Vatican News, July 21, 2025).
– Escalation is highlighted by a large-scale drone attack on Sumy that injured several civilians (n-tv.de, July 19, 2025).
– Reports from Ukraine’s General Staff indicate daily losses on both Russian and Ukrainian sides, with multiple engagements and losses in personnel and equipment (Newsru.co.il, July 21, 2025).
2. **Civilian Impact and Casualties:**
– June 2025 was reported as the deadliest month for civilians since February 2022 according to the UN, with 232 killed and over 1,343 injured. This trend may continue if hostilities do not decrease (ReliefWeb, July 10, 2025).
– The frequency of urban area bombardments has significantly increased, resulting in high civilian casualty rates (Dialog.ua, July 11, 2025).
3. **Strained Military Resources:**
– Reports allege that President Zelensky has downplayed Ukrainian casualties, hinting at potentially higher figures, with overcrowded cemeteries indicating substantial military losses (Le Monde and RIA, July 21, 2025).
4. **Diplomatic Efforts:**
– Attempts at peace talks have stalled, suggesting continued military confrontation. Ukraine proposes talks, but Russia reportedly ignores them (Vatican News, July 21, 2025; LaSexta, July 20, 2025).
5. **Military and Strategic Developments:**
– Russia continues to capture Ukrainian territory, complicating any shift toward a reduction in military engagements (LaSexta, July 20, 2025).
– Ukraine has reinforced its military capabilities with new equipment, which could lead to heightened confrontations (n-tv.de, July 19, 2025).
Anthropic response:
## Current Conflict Assessment
According to ACLED data up to July 11, 2025, there were 53 civilian deaths from Russian actions and 4 from Ukrainian actions during July 5-11. The previous week (June 28-July 4) saw 42 civilian deaths from Russian actions and 8 from Ukrainian actions.
These figures represent only civilian casualties for about half the month and exclude combatant deaths, which typically outnumber civilian casualties significantly in this conflict.
## Historical Context and Trends
Several key data points help establish context:
1. April 2025 was reported as particularly deadly with 209 civilian deaths (a 23% increase from March and 84% higher than April 2024)
2. June 2025 was identified by UN reports as the deadliest month for civilians since February 2022, with 232 civilian deaths and 1,343 injuries
3. Early July data shows no signs of de-escalation, with 57 civilian fatalities recorded for July 5-11 alone
The conflict has shown seasonal patterns with intensification during summer months due to improved operational conditions, suggesting July could maintain or exceed June’s high casualty rates.
## Civilian vs. Combatant Death Ratios
While precise combatant death figures are more difficult to verify, historical patterns in this conflict suggest that combatant deaths typically exceed civilian deaths by a ratio of approximately 3:1 to 5:1, depending on the nature of operations. This means that for every civilian death, we can reasonably expect 3-5 combatant fatalities across both Ukrainian and Russian forces.
Gemini Multiple Choice response: (Task failed)
Model’s Answer:
## Current Conflict Assessment
Looking at the available data for the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, we have partial information for July 2025 that allows us to make a reasoned forecast. According to ACLED data up to July 11, 2025, there were 53 civilian deaths from Russian actions and 4 from Ukrainian actions during July 5-11. The previous week (June 28-July 4) saw 42 civilian deaths from Russian actions and 8 from Ukrainian actions.
These figures represent only civilian casualties for about half the month and exclude combatant deaths, which typically outnumber civilian casualties significantly in this conflict.
## Historical Context and Trends
Several key data points help establish context:
1. April 2025 was reported as particularly deadly with 209 civilian deaths (a 23% increase from March and 84% higher than April 2024)
2. June 2025 was identified by UN reports as the deadliest month for civilians since February 2022, with 232 civilian deaths and 1,343 injuries
3. Early July data shows no signs of de-escalation, with 57 civilian fatalities recorded for July 5-11 alone
The conflict has shown seasonal patterns with intensification during summer months due to improved operational conditions, suggesting July could maintain or exceed June’s high casualty rates.
## Civilian vs. Combatant Death Ratios
While precise combatant death figures are more difficult to verify, historical patterns in this conflict suggest that combatant deaths typically exceed civilian deaths by a ratio of approximately 3:1 to 5:1, depending on the nature of operations. This means that for every civilian death, we can reasonably expect 3-5 combatant fatalities across both Ukrainian and Russian forces.
## Projecting July 2025 Total
Given the partial data showing approximately 100 civilian deaths in the first half of July, and assuming a similar rate continues through the month, we can project approximately 200-220 civilian deaths for the full month. Applying a conservative combatant-to-civilian death ratio of 4:1, this would suggest approximately 800-880 combatant deaths.
This yields a projected total of 1,000-1,100 state-based conflict deaths for July 2025.
However, several factors suggest this may be a lower bound:
1. Escalation pattern: Reports indicate intensified Russian aerial campaigns and increased military operations in multiple regions
2. Historical comparison: June saw 232 civilian deaths, and July has historically shown equal or greater intensity
3. Seasonal factors: Summer has typically shown higher casualty rates due to increased military mobility
## Key Assumptions and Uncertainties
1. **Assumption: Current intensity will continue through July** (70% confidence)
If intensity decreases due to tactical pauses or diplomatic breakthroughs, deaths could be lower. If it increases due to new offensives, deaths could be higher.
2. **Assumption: ACLED’s methodology and reporting remains consistent** (90% confidence)
Changes in how ACLED counts or classifies deaths could affect the final figure.
3. **Assumption: 4:1 combatant-to-civilian death ratio** (75% confidence)
This ratio could vary depending on the nature of military operations. Urban combat typically produces higher civilian casualties, while rural/frontline operations see higher combatant deaths.
## Final Forecast Distribution
Accounting for the data and uncertainties outlined above, I believe the most likely outcome falls in the 1000-1500 range, with significant probability mass in the 1500-2000 range due to the potential for escalation.
Given the available information, here’s my probability distribution:
Less than 500: 3%
Between 500 and 1,000: 17%
Between 1,000 and 1,500: 45%
Between 1,500 and 2,000: 25%
Greater than 2,000: 10%
Full details from pgozinai’s report here —>
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
Phil’s Ukraine forecasts are a side experiment with the VIEWS competition. Its Ukraine dashboard below.
Source: The VIEWS machine forecasting competition https://data.viewsforecasting.org
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