What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 25%, up from 15% Friday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews: Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “US Steel Nippon Steel merger” from reliable sources
1. **Title:** Nippon Steel deal, Indian Ocean tsunami, holiday trading hours
**URL:** [biztoc.com](https://biztoc.com/x/1c4c3e4f2c3a5c1b)
**Summary:** Nippon Steel’s $14 billion bid to buy U.S. Steel hangs in the balance as a U.S. government panel struggles to agree on national security concerns. Former Nissan boss Carlos Ghosn holds a media briefing to discuss a possible merger between Nissan and Honda Motor, as well as his legal battles and Nissan’s financial problems. Indonesia marks the 20th anniversary of the devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, which killed over 220,000 people across the region. Financial markets in some countries will be closed during the Christmas holidays, while others will remain open.
2. **Title:** The Nippon Steel Deal Is Key To U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy
**URL:** [nationalinterest.org] https://nationalinterest.org/article/nippon-steel-deal-key-us-indo-pacific-strategy-205962
**Summary:** President Biden is reportedly planning to block Nippon Steel’s proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel based on ‘national security’ concerns, despite the deal’s potential benefits for U.S. workers, the economy, and national security. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has concluded that the deal poses no national security risks, but U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai opposes the acquisition.
3. **Title:** Post-Tribune | Melton, Pennsylvania mayors critical of union in Nippon-U.S. Steel deal negotiations
**URL:** [biztoc.com] https://biztoc.com/x/1c4c3e4f2c3a5c1b
**Summary:** Gary Mayor Eddie Melton and two Pennsylvania mayors, Cletus Lee and Chris Kelly, issued a joint statement criticizing the United Steelworkers (USW) for its stance on the proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel. They stated that USW leadership is putting jobs at risk by refusing to engage in good faith negotiations.
4. **Title:** Nippon Steel’s $14.9 Billion Gamble: A Merger in Peril
**URL:** [devdiscourse.com] https://devdiscourse.com/article/business/2024/12/18/nippon-steels-149-billion-gamble-a-merger-in-peril
**Summary:** Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel is facing significant hurdles due to national security concerns. A letter obtained by Reuters suggests that President Biden may block the merger due to unresolved security risks. Despite three revamped proposals, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) remains divided.
5. **Title:** US Steel Acquisition Examined by CFIUS
**URL:** [zonebourse.com] https://zonebourse.com/cours/actualite/US-Steel-Acquisition-Examined-by-CFIUS-2024-12-11
**Summary:** The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) will examine the proposed acquisition of US Steel by Nippon Steel on December 22. The committee must decide whether to approve, block, or extend the review period for the operation. The White House has stated that it will wait for the results of the examination before making a decision on blocking the operation.
*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 23, 2024 01:50 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “The potential $14 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel is currently in a state of uncertainty due to national security concerns, with President Biden reportedly considering blocking the deal. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has so far found no security risks, but the U.S. Trade Representative is opposed to the acquisition. As negotiations continue, local mayors have criticized the United Steelworkers for their stance, accusing them of risking jobs by not negotiating in good faith. Meanwhile, the White House is awaiting further examination results by CFIUS before deciding on the transaction, which also faces scrutiny from members of the government due to the concerns over its impact on U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts stated in the summary, along with their analysis for correctness and relevance:
1. **Fact**: The potential acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel is valued at $14 billion.
– **Correctness**: True, U.S. Steel announced investigating strategic alternatives, but $14 billion is a plausible public estimate.
– **Relevance**: True, the deal’s valuation is crucial for assessing its magnitude and potential implications.
2. **Fact**: The deal is in a state of uncertainty due to national security concerns.
– **Correctness**: True, such deals often face scrutiny regarding national security implications.
– **Relevance**: True, national security concerns are a significant factor affecting the merger’s announcement.
3. **Fact**: President Biden is reportedly considering blocking the deal.
– **Correctness**: True, it is within presidential authority to consider blocking deals based on national interest.
– **Relevance**: True, presidential decisions heavily influence the probability of the merger’s announcement.
4. **Fact**: The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has found no security risks so far.
– **Correctness**: False, as CFIUS reviews are usually confidential, and any public statement would be atypical.
– **Relevance**: True, CFIUS evaluations are central to the administration’s decision on foreign acquisitions.
5. **Fact**: The U.S. Trade Representative is opposed to the acquisition.
– **Correctness**: False, explicit public opposition by the U.S. Trade Representative would be notable but needs verification.
– **Relevance**: True, opposition by influential bodies affects the merger’s probabilities.
6. **Fact**: Local mayors have criticized the United Steelworkers for their negotiation stance.
– **Correctness**: True, labor disputes and worker representation issues often arise in such negotiations.
– **Relevance**: True, worker sentiment and union negotiations impact the local and national perception of the merger.
7. **Fact**: The White House is awaiting further examination results by CFIUS.
– **Correctness**: True, this aligns with typical procedures for significant foreign acquisitions.
– **Relevance**: True, the White House’s decision will be pivotal to the timing of any announcement.
8. **Fact**: The merger faces scrutiny due to concerns over its impact on U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy.
– **Correctness**: True, as a significant merger involving a foreign company could affect regional industrial strategy.
– **Relevance**: True, strategic considerations directly impact national policy and might delay the deal.
Overall, while most facts are consistent and relevant, there may be inaccuracies with public statements attributed to CFIUS and the U.S. Trade Representative’s stance.
Fact-checked summary: The potential acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel, valued at $14 billion, is marked by uncertainty due to national security concerns, which are a significant factor in the merger’s timing and announcement. President Biden is reportedly considering whether to block the deal, reflecting the influence of presidential decisions on its probability. Meanwhile, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is involved in the review process, and the White House awaits further examination results, underscoring the role of government scrutiny. Additionally, the merger is scrutinized for its potential impact on the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, adding another layer of strategic consideration. Labor issues are also at play, as reflected in local mayors’ criticism of the United Steelworkers, indicating that worker sentiment and union negotiations might influence public and political perceptions of the merger.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.3. The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate of 0.3 is informed by the high level of government scrutiny such mergers typically encounter, particularly in the context of national security concerns involving major U.S. industries like steel. Past instances of foreign acquisitions in sensitive sectors often see significant hurdles, leading to a relatively low percentage of successful resolutions when national security is a factor. Additionally, political considerations and labor relations introduce further uncertainty that must be resolved for the merger to proceed smoothly.
Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate: If significant political pressure were to arise in favor of the merger, possibly due to strategic alignments or shifts in geopolitical concerns, the likelihood could increase. Conversely, increased labor opposition or deteriorating U.S. relations with Japan could decrease the chances. Moreover, any further negative finding by CFIUS on national security grounds or particularly strong intervention by the President would reduce the probability further.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– CFIUS approval is granted, which is of moderate likelihood given typical scrutiny surrounding foreign acquisitions of US companies.
– President Biden decides not to block the deal, which currently appears to be of low to moderate likelihood due to potential national security concerns.
– Resolution of labor issues and garnering support or neutrality from key stakeholders like the United Steelworkers, which is of moderate likelihood considering potential union negotiations.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 4)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.25
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.05
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.17
Reverse Mellers: 0.33
Theory of Mind: 0.3 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.86
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value : 0.25
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The US Steel/Nippon Steel merger faces a low probability of being announced before January 21, 2025, due to significant regulatory and political challenges. CFIUS approval is noted as a major hurdle, typically involving extensive scrutiny, especially for strategic industries. President Biden’s potential opposition and national security concerns further complicate matters. Labor issues and United Steelworkers’ negotiations add another layer of complexity. With the deadline nearing, the time available to address these challenges appears insufficient. However, the prediction could be proven wrong if there have been significant but undisclosed advancements, if the Biden administration finds strategic value in the merger, or if geopolitical shifts favor swift approvals and positive union negotiations.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 43%, down from 55% Friday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews. Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “dock workers strike” from reliable sources:
1. **Title:** CN, railworkers strike new deal avoiding potential strike
**URL:** [piquenewsmagazine.com](https://piquenewsmagazine.com)
**Summary:** Unifor, the union representing 3,000 railworkers, has reached a new collective agreement with Canadian National Railway Co. The four-year deal includes improved pay, benefits, and job protections, addressing workers’ concerns that led to a potential strike in January.
2. **Title:** Teamsters say Amazon workers will strike at multiple facilities as union seeks labor contract
**URL:** [news12.com](https://news12.com)
**Summary:** The International Brotherhood of Teamsters announced that workers at seven Amazon facilities will go on strike on Thursday, pressuring the company for a labor agreement after Amazon ignored a Dec. 15 deadline for contract negotiations. The strike involves nearly 10,000 employees across various locations.
3. **Title:** Qube Ports faces more strikes across Australia
**URL:** [splash247.com](https://splash247.com)
**Summary:** Strikes at major Australian ports are set to continue due to ongoing disputes between unionized workers and Qube Ports over contract negotiations. The Maritime Union of Australia has conducted industrial action since September, with work stoppages planned in multiple cities as the union seeks changes to wage and rostering proposals.
4. **Title:** Dockworkers’ Strike Threatened in Canada
**URL:** [seanews.ru](https://seanews.ru)
**Summary:** A potential dockworkers’ strike has been threatened in Canada, with port operators in British Columbia receiving warnings from a union representing around 700 workers. The strike is set to begin if a new collective agreement is not reached by Monday.
5. **Title:** Montreal dockworkers hold one-day strike to put pressure on employer
**URL:** [citynews.ca](https://citynews.ca)
**Summary:** Dockworkers at the Port of Montreal went on a one-day strike to pressure their employer in contract talks. The strike affects 1,200 longshore workers, who have been without a collective agreement since December 31, 2023, and aims to advance stalled negotiations.
6. **Title:** Montreal Port Workers on Strike, Demanding New Collective Agreement
**URL:** [radio-canada.ca] https://radio-canada.ca
**Summary:** Montreal port workers are on strike for a second day, with 1,000 dockworkers participating. The strike, which began on Sunday, aims to secure a new collective agreement that has been stalled in negotiations, impacting delivery schedules ahead of the holiday season.
*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 23, 2024 01:51 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “Recent news surrounding labor disputes highlights ongoing and potential strikes involving dockworkers and other labor groups. In Canada, a series of strikes by dockworkers at the Port of Montreal has been underway, highlighting demands for a new collective agreement affecting over a thousand workers, with negotiations having stalled since the end of 2023. Meanwhile, a threatened dockworkers’ strike in British Columbia looms if contract negotiations are not concluded by an imminent deadline. Additionally, Qube Ports in Australia faces continued industrial action over contract disputes. In related developments, Canadian railworkers successfully negotiated a new contract avoiding a strike, and Amazon facilities are preparing for a strike by Teamsters pushing for labor agreements. These events underscore the ongoing tension and negotiations among various labor groups seeking improved work conditions and agreements.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, along with an evaluation of each fact’s correctness and relevance to the original question:
1. **Fact:** There are ongoing and potential strikes involving dockworkers and other labor groups.
– *Correctness:* True. The summary accurately describes current events involving labor disputes.
– *Relevance:* True. The presence of ongoing and potential strikes provides context for the likelihood of dockworkers’ actions in the US.
2. **Fact:** Dockworkers at the Port of Montreal in Canada are on strike, demanding a new collective agreement affecting over a thousand workers with stalled negotiations since the end of 2023.
– *Correctness:* True. The summary is internally consistent regarding the Port of Montreal’s situation.
– *Relevance:* True. It highlights broader labor unrest, potentially influencing US dockworkers’ strategies or actions.
3. **Fact:** A threatened dockworkers’ strike looms in British Columbia, Canada, if contract negotiations aren’t concluded by an imminent deadline.
– *Correctness:* True. The summary’s narrative suggests a pending labor dispute in British Columbia.
– *Relevance:* True. It adds to the climate of labor negotiations and potential strike actions affecting the US context.
4. **Fact:** Qube Ports in Australia faces continued industrial action due to contract disputes.
– *Correctness:* True. The summary mentions ongoing disputes at Qube Ports.
– *Relevance:* False. While it shows international labor action trends, it’s less directly relevant to the US dockworkers’ situation.
5. **Fact:** Canadian railworkers successfully negotiated a new contract, avoiding a strike.
– *Correctness:* True. The summary is consistent about Canadian railworkers’ outcomes.
– *Relevance:* True. This can offer a contrasting example of successful negotiation, suggesting a framework for resolving disputes and possibly influencing US outcomes.
6. **Fact:** Amazon facilities are preparing for a strike by Teamsters pushing for labor agreements.
– *Correctness:* True. The summary indicates this labor preparation.
– *Relevance:* False. While indicative of labor tension, it pertains to a different industry and group, thus less relevant to the outcome for US dockworkers.
Each fact has been checked for correctness based on the summary’s internal consistency and known labor trends, with relevance relating specifically to the probability of a US dockworkers’ strike in Q1 2025.
Fact-checked summary: Ongoing and potential strikes involving dockworkers and other labor groups are currently true and relevant, providing context for the likelihood of US dockworkers’ actions. There are strikes at the Port of Montreal in Canada, impacting negotiations and over a thousand workers since the end of 2023, which illustrates broader labor unrest potentially influencing US dockworkers’ strategies. In British Columbia, Canada, a threatened dockworkers’ strike looms if contract negotiations aren’t concluded by a deadline, contributing to the climate of labor negotiations and potential strike actions in the US. Additionally, Canadian railworkers successfully avoided a strike by negotiating a new contract, offering a contrast that might suggest frameworks for resolving disputes that could influence US negotiations.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.25. The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is determined by analyzing historical data on US labor strikes, their frequency, and the impact of international labor movements. The current context of labor unrest in Canada suggests broader regional discontent among workers, which could tip US dockworkers towards similar actions. Historically, US dockworkers have gone on strike, but successful negotiation is also possible, as seen in the recent Canadian railworker agreement. The combination of external influences and historical strike rates informed this base rate.
Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate: Factors that might lead to a deviation from the base rate include successful agreements being reached in ongoing US labor negotiations, influenced by recent examples of successful contract negotiations in Canada, such as the railworkers’. Additionally, any governmental interventions or shifts in labor policy could alter the likelihood of a strike. Furthermore, any economic downturns or changes in public sentiment might either pressure or dissuade strike actions.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– US dockworkers decide to initiate a strike after ongoing labor negotiations. (Likely) – Failure to reach an agreement in US dockworker contract negotiations before the deadline. (About as likely as not)
– Influence of ongoing or recent strikes in Canada, pressuring US dockworkers to adopt similar strategies. (Moderately likely)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.4 – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.4
Base rate: 0.25 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.13
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.36
Reverse Mellers: 0.43
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.12
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 0.43
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The probability of a strike among US dockworkers in Q1 2025 is influenced by several interconnected factors. Key concerns include the contentious nature of automation discussions, a historical point of conflict between unions and employers striving for port modernization, and the ongoing labor activism in Canada, exemplified by recent strikes. While the recent salary agreement suggests a cooperative atmosphere, the potential for conflict over automation remains significant. Historical patterns indicate a tendency for dockworker unions to use strikes as leverage, particularly on challenging issues like automation. On the other hand, past successful negotiations in Canada, such as those by railworkers, could set a precedent for resolving current disputes without resorting to strikes. Additionally, economic pressures, government interventions, and US-specific conditions could either heighten or decrease the likelihood of strike actions. Thus, the situation remains fluid, with the resolution of Canadian strikes potentially influencing the strategies and outcomes of US negotiations.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today,
* less than 172: 9.525%
* between 172 and 205: 42.86%
* between 206 and 240: 38.1%
* more than 240: 9.52%
Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews. Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “Conservative Party Canada election” from reliable sources:
1. **Title:** Poilievre’s Conservatives still in majority territory: Nanos seat projections
**URL:** [ctvnews.ca](https://ctvnews.ca)
**Summary:** According to the latest Nanos Research ballot tracking, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives remain in comfortable majority territory, with 42% national support. The Liberals and NDP are within the margin of error of each other at 23% and 21%, respectively. Seat projections indicate significant gains for the Conservatives across the country, including traditional Liberal strongholds in Ontario, British Columbia, and the Atlantic region. If an election were held today, Poilievre would likely become prime minister with a majority Conservative government.
2. **Title:** Conservative motion, United divided, mourning Premier Dad: 2024 in B.C.
**URL:** [campbellrivermirror.com](https://campbellrivermirror.com)
**Summary:** The 2024 British Columbia provincial election resulted in a close contest between the NDP and the Conservatives, with the NDP winning 46 seats to the Conservatives’ 45. This election marked a significant shift in the province’s political landscape, highlighting the rise of the Conservative Party of B.C. under John Rustad. Despite the Conservatives’ strong performance, they failed to secure enough urban voters in Vancouver and Victoria to form a government.
3. **Title:** Nova Scotia snap election brings second Conservative majority
**URL:** [rightedition.com](https://rightedition.com)
**Summary:** In the recent Nova Scotia snap election, the Progressive Conservative Party, led by Premier Tim Houston, won a massive majority government with 43 out of 55 seats, securing 52.8% of the vote. The party capitalized on inflation and carbon tax-related frustrations, while the New Democrats will form the official opposition and the Liberals suffered a significant decline, winning only 2 seats. This election reflects a Conservative wave sweeping across Canada.
*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 23, 2024 01:52 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “Recent news reports suggest that the Conservative Party in Canada, under Pierre Poilievre’s leadership, is maintaining a strong position, with national support projected at 42% according to Nanos Research. This positions them for significant gains potentially in traditional Liberal areas such as Ontario, British Columbia, and the Atlantic region, indicating a possible majority government if elections were held currently. In regional developments, the Conservative Party of British Columbia, led by John Rustad, nearly won the provincial election with a close contest against the NDP, signaling a notable rise in their influence despite falling short in urban centers. Additionally, a snap election in Nova Scotia resulted in a decisive victory for the Progressive Conservative Party, capturing 43 out of 55 seats. While these reports suggest a strong Conservative trend across Canada, the reliability of the sources and potential biases should be considered.”
Fact-checking news summary:
The summary provides several specific facts:
1. **Fact:** The Conservative Party in Canada, under Pierre Poilievre’s leadership, is maintaining a strong position with national support projected at 42%, according to Nanos Research.
– **Correctness:** True/False – The correctness of this fact depends on verifying the latest Nanos Research poll data as of the summary’s context.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True – National support percentage is directly relevant to projecting election outcomes.
2. **Fact:** This positions the Conservative Party for significant gains in traditional Liberal areas such as Ontario, British Columbia, and the Atlantic region, indicating a possible majority government if elections were held currently.
– **Correctness:** True/False – This is speculative and would need verification from detailed regional polling data.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True – Gaining in key regions is relevant to potentially winning a majority government.
3. **Fact:** The Conservative Party of British Columbia, led by John Rustad, nearly won the provincial election against the NDP.
– **Correctness:** False – John Rustad leads the BC Conservative Party, but the party has not been close to winning provincial power recently and fell short significantly against the BC NDP.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** False – Provincial results in British Columbia are not directly indicative of federal election outcomes, especially where parties and leadership differ.
4. **Fact:** A snap election in Nova Scotia resulted in a decisive victory for the Progressive Conservative Party, capturing 43 out of 55 seats.
– **Correctness:** True – The Progressive Conservative Party of Nova Scotia did win a majority in the most recent election.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** False – Provincial election results in Nova Scotia may not directly translate to federal Conservative Party success, as they are separate entities.
Overall, while some statements in the summary pertain to potential gains by the Conservative Party in Canada, others are either inaccurate or relevant only on a regional basis, not necessarily indicative of federal election outcomes.
Fact-checked summary: The Conservative Party in Canada, under the leadership of Pierre Poilievre, is maintaining a strong national position with projected support at 42%, according to a poll by Nanos Research. This national support percentage is directly relevant as it may influence the number of seats the party could win in the next federal parliamentary election. However, further details about regional polling and other factors would be necessary to make a more specific prediction about the total number of seats the party might secure.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.15, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.35, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.05, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.4, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.1, “between 172 and 205”: 0.25, “between 206 and 240”: 0.45, “more than 240”: 0.2] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 0.0952
* between 172 and 205: 0.4286
* between 206 and 240: 0.381
* more than 240: 0.0952
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The Conservative Party is polling at 42% nationally, which is considered strong historically and suggests a significant number of parliamentary seats could be won. Traditionally, parties with this level of support secure between 170 to 240 seats, though the exact number will depend heavily on the efficiency and regional distribution of votes due to the first-past-the-post electoral system in Canada. However, uncertainties such as regional variations in voter support, voter turnout, and campaign effectiveness could influence the final outcome. Additionally, national polling could be misleading without detailed regional data, as the party could experience inefficient vote distribution, potentially leading to fewer seats. Unforeseen events or political dynamics could also alter the support landscape significantly before the election.
Runtime: 185 seconds for all forecats on this page.
Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
