Updates from BestWorld’s AI Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman of Dec. 12, 2024

What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?

Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 65%, up from 60% yesterday. 

Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews:

Here are the latest news articles relevant to the keywords “US Steel Nippon Steel merger” from reliable sources:

1. **Title:** US Steel Acquisition Examined by CFIUS
**URL:** https://www.zonebourse.com
**Summary:** The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) will examine the proposed acquisition of US Steel by Nippon Steel on December 22. The committee must decide whether to approve, block, or extend the review period for the operation. The White House has stated that it will wait for the results of the examination before making a decision on blocking the operation. According to a Reuters report in September, President Joe Biden expressed his intention to block the acquisition.

2. **Title:** What next for Nippon Steel and US Steel’s $15 billion mega-merger?
**URL:** https://www.marketscreener.com
**Summary:** A U.S. government panel is set to submit its recommendations this month on whether Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel would threaten national security, with the fate of the $15 billion mega-merger in the balance. President Joe Biden has voiced opposition to the deal, citing national security concerns. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has been reviewing the transaction for several months.

3. **Title:** Nippon Steel Defends U.S. Steel Acquisition Plan Amid Biden’s Potential Block
**URL:** https://www.agenzianova.com
**Summary:** Nippon Steel has defended its plan to acquire U.S. Steel, which has been opposed by the U.S. government and may be blocked by President Joe Biden. Nippon Steel stated that it is inappropriate for politics to prevail over genuine national security interests. The company has announced its intention to give a $5,000 cash bonus to all U.S. Steel employees once the merger is complete.

4. **Title:** Biden to kill Nippon Steel’s $15B takeover of US Steel on national security grounds: report
**URL:** https://www.nypost.com
**Summary:** President Biden plans to block Nippon Steel’s proposed $15 billion takeover of US Steel on national security grounds, according to a Bloomberg report. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) panel reviewing the deal must refer its decision to Biden by Dec. 22 or 23. If Biden decides to block the merger, the two companies are poised to pursue litigation.

5. **Title:** Nippon Steel slams ‘inappropriate’ politics in US deal
**URL:** https://www.digitaljournal.com
**Summary:** Nippon Steel has criticized the ‘inappropriate’ role of politics in the review of its planned takeover of US Steel, worth $14.9 billion including debts. According to Bloomberg, President Joe Biden plans to block the sale on national security grounds. US Steel argues that it needs the Nippon deal to ensure sufficient investment in its Mon Valley plants in Pennsylvania.

*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 12, 2024 01:14 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*

Summarizing outside newsfeed: “The proposed $15 billion acquisition of US Steel by Nippon Steel is under scrutiny by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) due to national security concerns, with a decision expected by December 22. President Joe Biden has expressed intentions to block the merger on these grounds. Nippon Steel has criticized what it perceives as the undue influence of politics over genuine national security concerns and has committed to a $5,000 bonus for US Steel employees if the merger is completed. In response to Biden’s potential blocking of the deal, litigation could ensue between the companies. The outcome of CFIUS’s review and the subsequent action by Biden will determine the future of this acquisition.”

Fact-checking news summary: Below is a list of specific facts stated in the summary, along with their truthfulness and relevance to the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being announced before January 21, 2025:

1. **Fact**: The proposed acquisition of US Steel by Nippon Steel is valued at $15 billion.
– **Truthfulness**: True (based on the information provided; needs external verification for absolute certainty).
– **Relevance**: True (the value of the deal is relevant to understanding its significance and potential hurdles).

2. **Fact**: The acquisition is under scrutiny by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) due to national security concerns.
– **Truthfulness**: True (CFIUS typically reviews foreign acquisitions of US companies for national security implications).
– **Relevance**: True (CFIUS’s decision is directly relevant to whether the merger can proceed).

3. **Fact**: A decision by CFIUS is expected by December 22.
– **Truthfulness**: True (assuming the summary is accurate; timelines for such decisions can be subject to change).
– **Relevance**: True (the timing of the decision impacts the probability of the merger being announced before January 21, 2025).

4. **Fact**: President Joe Biden has expressed intentions to block the merger on national security grounds.
– **Truthfulness**: Needs verification (internally consistent with the narrative, but external confirmation required for absolute truth).
– **Relevance**: True (Presidential opposition can significantly impact the merger’s feasibility).

5. **Fact**: Nippon Steel perceives the influence of politics over genuine national security concerns.
– **Truthfulness**: True (this is a reported perspective, consistent with similar cases).
– **Relevance**: True (such perceptions might influence legal strategies and negotiations, impacting the probability of the merger).

6. **Fact**: Nippon Steel has committed to a $5,000 bonus for US Steel employees if the merger is completed.
– **Truthfulness**: Needs verification (internally consistent, but needs external confirmation for absolute truth).
– **Relevance**: False (this is a peripheral detail regarding employee incentives, not directly relevant to the merger’s announcement probability).

7. **Fact**: Litigation could ensue between the companies if Biden blocks the deal.
– **Truthfulness**: True (litigation is a typical recourse if deals are blocked on such grounds).
– **Relevance**: True (potential litigation could delay or alter the merger process and its announcement timeline).

8. **Fact**: The outcomes of CFIUS’s review and subsequent action by Biden will determine the future of the acquisition.
– **Truthfulness**: True (correctly outlines critical decision points influencing the merger).
– **Relevance**: True (these are key factors affecting the probability of the merger being announced by the specified date).

Overall, most facts are internally consistent and relevant to the merger’s potential announcement before January 21, 2025, but some require external verification for complete accuracy.
Fact-checked summary: The proposed acquisition of US Steel by Nippon Steel, valued at $15 billion, is under scrutiny by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) due to national security concerns, with a decision expected by December 22. This monitoring is crucial as CFIUS’s decision will directly impact whether the merger can proceed. Additionally, potential litigation could ensue if the deal is blocked, which could delay or alter the merger process and its announcement timeline. Ultimately, the outcomes of CFIUS’s review and any subsequent actions will determine the future of the acquisition, impacting the likelihood of the merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.6. The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:

The base rate considers the likelihood of CFIUS approving the merger, which is a key determinant given the national security concerns involved. Historically, CFIUS has blocked similar deals, but they have also approved others under certain conditions. The fact that a decision is expected soon increases the chances of an efficient resolution. The likelihood of significant legal challenges also factors into the base rate; since litigation could delay the process, but legal actions of this nature often end in settlements rather than outright blocks. Finally, within industry groups, mergers valued similarly and with fewer regulatory concerns tend to have about a 60% chance of completion in a given timeframe.

Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate: Factors that might lead to a resolution differing from the base rate include unexpected national security concerns identified by CFIUS that are not resolvable through negotiation or amendments to the deal. Further, if there is substantial political or public opposition that arises at the last moment, it could impact CFIUS’s decision. Additionally, should there be any significant market developments that deteriorate the financial feasibility of the deal for either party, the timeline could be affected. Lastly, any global economic or geopolitical shifts, such as trade tensions between the US and Japan, could influence the merger’s outcome.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– CFIUS approves the acquisition by December 22, 2024 (likely).
– No significant legal actions are taken that could block or delay the merger (moderately likely).
– Both companies can finalize agreements and announce the merger publicly before January 21, 2025 (likely).

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.85 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 6)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.65
Base rate: 0.6 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.09
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.71
Reverse Mellers: 0.6
Theory of Mind: 0.55 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.3
Close Type: C (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 0.65

We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews).
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows: The merger in question appears likely to be completed before January 21, 2025, due to a combination of factors. A CFIUS decision is anticipated by December 22, 2024, which is expected to confirm approval, drawing on precedent from similar cross-border mergers in the steel industry. Moreover, the merger has strong corporate backing and clear strategic value, with financial capability and commitment from both companies. Despite these positive indicators, some uncertainties remain, such as potential national security concerns that could be raised by CFIUS, unforeseen political opposition, legal challenges, or changing market conditions that could delay the timeline. However, these challenges are generally expected to result in settlements rather than outright blocks, underpinned by a solid historical base rate of 60% for similar mergers, which could be bolstered by the collective urgency and commitment to finalize the deal in the given timeframe.

Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.

Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 53%, up from 34% yesterday.

Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews:

Here are the latest news articles relevant to the keywords “US Dock Workers strike 2025” from reliable sources:

1. **Title:** The Port Strike Ended — Now What?
**URL:** https://taranganews.com
**Summary:** The recent port strike in the U.S. has ended, but businesses should be prepared for the possibility of another strike. The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) went on strike for the first time since 1977, shutting down 14 major ports and threatening to disrupt over half of the U.S.’s global trade. The ILA is demanding higher wages and a ban on automation. If an agreement is not reached by January 15, 2025, the dockworkers could go on strike again. Businesses can mitigate future risk by stockpiling inventory, diversifying their supply chain, and preparing for additional costs. According to the Conference Board, a one-week shutdown could cost the U.S. economy $3.78 billion.

2. **Title:** US Dockworkers Demand Higher Wages Amid Shipping Company Profits
**URL:** https://frifagbevegelse.no
**Summary:** American dockworkers have gone on strike, demanding higher wages. The workers, represented by the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILA), are seeking a 62% increase over six years. The strike, which began on September 30, has been ongoing for several weeks. The new agreement will see the hourly wage for the most experienced workers increase from $39 to $63 over several years. The workers argue they deserve a share of the profits made by shipping companies, which have seen enormous profits in recent years.
*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 12, 2024 01:16 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*

Summarizing outside newsfeed: “According to recent reports, a strike by U.S. dockworkers, represented by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), has temporarily ended but may resume if demands are not met by January 15, 2025. The strike, which began in September 2024, involved 14 major ports, significantly impacting U.S. trade. The dockworkers are pushing for higher wages and a halt to automation, citing large profits made by shipping companies. They seek a 62% wage increase over six years, which would raise experienced workers’ hourly wages from $39 to $63. Businesses are advised to prepare for potential disruptions by diversifying supply chains and stockpiling inventory, as a similar one-week shutdown could cost the U.S. economy an estimated $3.78 billion.”

Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, along with an analysis of their accuracy and relevance to the outcome, based on the information provided:

1. **A strike by U.S. dockworkers, represented by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), has temporarily ended.**
– **Accuracy**: Assuming the summary is correct, this is true for reporting purposes.
– **Relevance**: True. The temporary end of the strike is directly relevant to the likelihood of a strike resumption in Q1 2025.

2. **A strike may resume if demands are not met by January 15, 2025.**
– **Accuracy**: Assuming the summary is correct, this is true for reporting purposes.
– **Relevance**: True. The potential for resuming the strike is directly relevant to the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.

3. **The strike began in September 2024.**
– **Accuracy**: Assuming the summary is correct, this is true for reporting purposes.
– **Relevance**: True. Knowing the start date of the strike informs its context and potential outcomes in Q1 2025.

4. **The strike involved 14 major ports.**
– **Accuracy**: Assuming the summary is correct, this is true for reporting purposes.
– **Relevance**: True. The involvement of major ports indicates the scale and potential impact of the strike, relevant to predicting future occurrences.

5. **The strike significantly impacted U.S. trade.**
– **Accuracy**: Assuming the summary is correct, this is true for reporting purposes.
– **Relevance**: True. The impact on trade relates to the economic consequences and pressures that might influence negotiations and subsequent strike actions.

6. **Dockworkers are pushing for higher wages and a halt to automation.**
– **Accuracy**: Assuming the summary is correct, this is true for reporting purposes.
– **Relevance**: True. These demands are central to understanding the reasons behind the strike and future negotiations.

7. **Dockworkers cite large profits made by shipping companies.**
– **Accuracy**: Assuming the summary is correct, this is a claimed justification for their demands.
– **Relevance**: True. Justifications for demands are relevant to negotiation outcomes and strike potential.

8. **Dockworkers are seeking a 62% wage increase over six years.**
– **Accuracy**: Assuming the summary is correct, this is true for reporting purposes.
– **Relevance**: True. Specific wage demands are critical factors in negotiations and strike likelihood.

9. **A 62% wage increase would raise experienced workers’ hourly wages from $39 to $63.**
– **Accuracy**: True, mathematically consistent (0.62 * $39 = $24.18; $39 + $24 = $63).
– **Relevance**: True. Understanding the wage impact gives context to the demands and negotiation stance.

10. **Businesses are advised to prepare for potential disruptions by diversifying supply chains and stockpiling inventory.**
– **Accuracy**: This advice hinges on prior experience and expectations, reasonable advice based on the context.
– **Relevance**: True. Preparation advice indicates anticipation of a strike, relevant to assessing Q1 2025 strike probability.

11. **A similar one-week shutdown could cost the U.S. economy an estimated $3.78 billion.**
– **Accuracy**: Assuming the summary is correct, this estimate is true for reporting purposes.
– **Relevance**: True. Economic impact estimates are important for evaluating the seriousness of a potential future strike.

Overall, all facts presented are internally and externally consistent when assuming the given summary is accurate. Most of the facts are relevant to predicting the likelihood of a strike in Q1 2025.

Fact-checked summary: The temporary end of the strike by U.S. dockworkers represented by the International Longshoremen’s Association, which began in September 2024 and involved 14 major ports, is directly relevant to assessing the likelihood of another strike in Q1 2025. The strike had significant impacts on U.S. trade, creating economic pressures that may influence negotiations. Dockworkers are pushing for higher wages, including a 62% increase over six years, elevating experienced workers’ hourly wages from $39 to $63, and they are also advocating for a halt to automation, citing large profits made by shipping companies. A strike could potentially resume if demands are not met by January 15, 2025. Given this context, businesses have been advised to prepare for potential disruptions by diversifying supply chains and stockpiling inventory. Additionally, a similar one-week shutdown could result in an estimated $3.78 billion loss to the U.S. economy, highlighting the seriousness of a potential future strike.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.4. The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:

The base rate of 0.4 was established considering the recent history of labor negotiations and strikes involving dockworkers, particularly the temporary end of the strike in September 2024. Given the significant economic impacts and unresolved demands from dockworkers for a substantial wage increase and automation concessions, there is a moderate chance that another strike could occur. However, the economic pressure on both sides to avoid severe disruptions might lead to a negotiated settlement before January 15, 2025.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate: Factors that might lead to a resolution differing from the base rate include successful negotiations resulting in a compromise that partially satisfies dockworker demands, a strategic decision by dockworker leadership to delay further strikes due to unfavorable public or economic conditions, or effective government interventions that address critical issues preventing a strike. Additionally, if shipping companies decide to concede to labor demands to avoid economic disruptions and losses, the likelihood of a strike would decrease.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Failure of negotiations between the dockworkers represented by the International Longshoremen’s Association and the port authorities or shipping companies. (Likelihood: Moderate)
– Continued strong stance by dockworkers to achieve a 62% wage increase and a halt in automation, despite economic pressures. (Likelihood: Moderate)
– Lack of satisfactory counteroffers from the shipping companies or port authorities that align with dockworker demands for wages and automation halt. (Likelihood: Moderate)
– Unsuccessful intervention or mediation efforts by government or third parties to prevent a strike resumption. (Likelihood: Moderate)

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.55 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.55
Base rate: 0.4 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.12
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.57
Reverse Mellers: 0.53
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.1
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 0.53


We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews).
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows: The reasoning among the various AIs suggests a moderately high likelihood of a dockworker strike in Q1 2025 due to several factors, including a significant gap between worker demands (such as a 62% wage increase and resistance to automation) and likely management offers. The recent history of labor strikes and the substantial economic impact of potential port disruptions (estimated at $3.78B per week) also support this prediction. However, mitigating circumstances could reduce the likelihood of a strike, such as economic pressures that might compel both sides to reach a compromise, government intervention, or strategic decisions by dockworker leadership to delay action until more favorable conditions arise. Additionally, if shipping companies make sufficient concessions, the chance of a strike may decrease. The official negotiation deadline on January 15, 2025, falls early in the quarter, leaving room for prolonged discussions or potential strikes if no agreement is reached.

How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?

Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today,
* less than 172: 27.5%
* between 172 and 205: 35%
* between 206 and 240: 75%
* more than 240: 10%

Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews:

Here are the latest news articles relevant to the keywords “Canada Conservative election” from reliable sources:

1. **Title:** Poilievre’s Conservatives still in majority territory: Nanos seat projections
**URL:** https://ctvnews.ca
**Summary:** According to the latest Nanos Research ballot tracking, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives remain in comfortable majority territory, with 42% national support. The Liberals and NDP are within the margin of error at 23% and 21%, respectively. Projections indicate significant gains for the Conservatives across the country, including traditional Liberal strongholds. If an election were held today, Poilievre would likely become prime minister with a majority government.

2. **Title:** Canadian Opposition Fails to Pass Vote of No Confidence in Trudeau Government
**URL:** https://warandpeace.ru
**Summary:** The Canadian House of Commons has rejected the Conservative Party’s initiative to pass a vote of no confidence in the Liberal government led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The vote saw 152 MPs in favor and 180 against, marking the third attempt by the Conservatives to initiate such a vote. The next Canadian parliamentary elections are scheduled for October 2025.

3. **Title:** Canada’s Trudeau survives third no-confidence vote **URL:** https://thefrontierpost.com **Summary:** Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government survived its third no-confidence vote, thanks to support from the New Democratic Party (NDP). The motion was defeated 180-152, following a two-month filibuster by the Conservatives. Despite previous elections in 2019 and 2021, Trudeau maintains a 20-point lead in polls.

4. **Title:** Conservatives plan to use Jagmeet Singh’s words in latest non-confidence motion
**URL:** https://citynews.ca
**Summary:** The Conservatives intend to bring a non-confidence motion against the Liberal government, focusing on NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s comments regarding corporate greed. If passed, this motion could trigger an immediate election. The NDP has stated they will evaluate each non-confidence vote individually, while the Bloc Québécois has pledged to work with opposition parties to defeat the government.

5. **Title:** It’s time — Canada must hold an election NOW!
**URL:** https://rebelnews.com)
**Summary:** The article argues for an immediate election in Canada due to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s perceived failures in leadership and policy. It highlights issues such as high food bank usage and mismanagement of various crises. The author suggests that the Conservatives are poised to win, predicting a significant loss for Trudeau’s Liberals.

*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 12, 2024 01:17 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*

Summarizing outside newsfeed: “The newsfeed provides a mix of reports and opinions regarding the political landscape in Canada, focusing on the Conservative Party’s prospects and the Trudeau government. Recent projections by Nanos Research suggest that Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are in a strong position, likely to secure a majority if an election were held now. However, the Canadian House of Commons recently voted against a Conservative-led no-confidence motion, allowing Prime Minister Trudeau’s Liberal government to remain in power with support from the NDP. There is ongoing tension, as the Conservatives plan further no-confidence motions, leveraging statements from NDP leader Jagmeet Singh. Meanwhile, some opinion pieces call for immediate elections, criticizing Trudeau’s leadership while predicting Conservative gains. These reports reflect a volatile political climate, with potential implications for Canada’s future elections.”

Fact-checking news summary: 1. **Fact**: Recent projections by Nanos Research suggest that Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are in a strong position, likely to secure a majority if an election were held now.
– **Correctness**: Cannot be verified from the given information. This would require direct access to Nanos Research projections or reputable sources confirming such projections.
– **Relevance**: True. This fact is directly relevant to the original question about the number of seats the Conservative Party might win.

2. **Fact**: The Canadian House of Commons recently voted against a Conservative-led no-confidence motion.
– **Correctness**: Cannot be verified from the given information. This would require checking the latest proceedings of the Canadian House of Commons.
– **Relevance**: True. This is relevant because it indicates the current stability of the Liberal government, influencing potential election timing and outcomes.

3. **Fact**: The Trudeau government remains in power with support from the NDP.
– **Correctness**: Likely true, based on known recent political alliances, though it still requires current verification. Historically, the NDP has supported the Liberals in maintaining a minority government.
– **Relevance**: True. The support dynamics in the House of Commons affect possible election calls and outcomes.

4. **Fact**: The Conservatives plan further no-confidence motions leveraging statements from NDP leader Jagmeet Singh.
– **Correctness**: Cannot be verified from the given information. This requires specific insider knowledge or news reports confirming future Conservative strategies.
– **Relevance**: True. Future no-confidence motions could influence political stability and electoral timing.

5. **Fact**: Opinion pieces call for immediate elections, criticizing Trudeau’s leadership while predicting Conservative gains.
– **Correctness**: Likely true, given common political commentary trends, but this depends on specific opinion sources, which are not provided in the summary.
– **Relevance**: True. Public opinion and media calls for elections can influence political narratives and potential election timing.

6. **Fact**: These reports reflect a volatile political climate with potential implications for Canada’s future elections.
– **Correctness**: True. The summary’s described elements accurately suggest political volatility.
– **Relevance**: True. Understanding political volatility is relevant as it sets the context for potential election outcomes, including the number of seats parties might win.

Fact-checked summary: The information provided does not definitively answer the question of how many seats the Conservative Party will win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election, as concrete projections or outcomes are absent. However, the Trudeau government currently remains in power with the support of the NDP, which is a key factor in the political dynamics that could influence the timing and results of the next election. The Canadian political climate is volatile, which also affects potential election outcomes. These elements offer context but not specific seat predictions.

Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 172”: 0.45, “Between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “Between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “More than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.3, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.25, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.25, “more than 240”: 0.15] – confidence: 5)

Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 5
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 0.275
* between 172 and 205: 0.35
* between 206 and 240: 0.275
* more than 240: 0.1

We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews).
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows: Various AIs predict the Conservative Party’s performance in Canada’s next federal election based on factors including current polling trends, historical election outcomes, and the unique dynamics of the Canadian political landscape, such as the first-past-the-post system and regional support distribution. The enduring Liberal-NDP agreement adds uncertainty to the timing and conditions of the election. Although the Conservatives are leading in some polls, the volatile political climate and the potential for vote splitting with other right-leaning parties present obstacles. These predictions could be undermined by rapid changes in public sentiment due to economic conditions, political developments, or shifts in polling accuracy. Additionally, significant events such as a collapse of the Liberal-NDP agreement or Conservative breakthroughs in urban areas traditionally dominated by Liberals could also alter the expected outcomes.

Runtime total for the predictions on this page: 223 seconds.

Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts

Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports 

Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).