How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025?
Phil’s pgodzinai, a multi-GenAI bot, is a side competitor with the machine forecasting bots of the VIEWS competition.
Here’s what Phil’s pgodzinai predicts today:
Less than 1000: 1%
Between 1000 and 3000: 3%
Between 3000 and 5000: 10%
Between 5000 and 8000: 25%
Between 8000 and 12000: 35%
More than 12000: 26%
Model’s Answer:
## Analyzing Sudan Conflict Deaths Forecast for 2025
To make an accurate forecast, I’ll examine recent developments, historical patterns, and factors that could influence conflict deaths in Sudan through 2025.
### Recent Evidence Analysis
The most significant piece of recent evidence is the UN report confirming **542 civilian deaths in North Darfur in just three weeks** (April 10-May 1, 2025). This represents a rate of approximately 180 deaths per week in a single region. Multiple sources confirm this figure, providing high confidence in this data point.
If we extrapolate this rate just for North Darfur:
– 180 deaths/week × 52 weeks = ~9,360 deaths for North Darfur alone in 2025
– This calculation doesn’t account for other conflict zones in Sudan
However, conflicts rarely maintain consistent intensity throughout a year. The recent surge might represent a peak period rather than a sustainable average.
### Historical Context and Trends
The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) began in April 2023. Recent sources indicate:
1. Cumulative deaths since April 2023 are estimated between 130,000-150,000 (including direct and indirect deaths)
2. The conflict shows signs of intensification rather than resolution, with the siege of El Fasher representing a significant escalation
3. Humanitarian access remains severely restricted, suggesting both underreporting of deaths and increased risk of famine-related mortality
The most reliable recent data indicates:
– Deaths are accelerating in Q2 2025 compared to earlier periods
– Multiple regions beyond North Darfur are experiencing active conflict
– No viable peace process exists as of May 1, 2025
### Uncertainty Factors
Several key uncertainties affect this forecast:
1. **Potential for de-escalation**: There’s little evidence suggesting imminent ceasefire or peace agreements.
2. **Seasonal impacts**: The approaching rainy season (May-October) typically makes conflict operations more difficult but worsens humanitarian conditions.
3. **Data limitations**: Combat deaths are likely underreported due to access restrictions, particularly in active conflict zones.
4. **Definition of “conflict deaths”**: The resolution may include only direct combat casualties or might encompass indirect deaths from displacement, disease, and famine.
### Regional Distribution Analysis
Examining regional patterns:
– North Darfur shows the highest recent casualty rate (542 in three weeks)
– El Fasher remains under siege with daily casualties reported
– Khartoum and other regions continue to experience violence but with less detailed recent reporting
### Forecast Rationale
With 8 months remaining in 2025 (May-December) and evidence of accelerating violence, a conservative projection would be:
– If North Darfur alone maintains even 50% of its recent casualty rate (90 deaths/week), this would add 3,240 more deaths in 2025
– Factoring in deaths from January-April 2025 (likely already >1,500 based on partial reports) plus casualties in other regions
– The minimum plausible outcome exceeds 5,000 deaths for 2025
The continuing siege of El Fasher, deteriorating humanitarian conditions, and absence of peace initiatives all support a forecast toward the higher ranges.
### Probability Distribution Assessment
Considering all factors:
– **Less than 1000**: Extremely unlikely given that recent three-week deaths in one region alone account for over half this number.
– **Between 1000 and 3000**: Highly improbable unless an immediate, effective ceasefire is implemented across all regions.
– **Between 3000 and 5000**: Unlikely given current death rates, but possible with significant de-escalation.
– **Between 5000 and 8000**: Plausible if conflict intensity decreases from current levels.
– **Between 8000 and 12000**: Aligns with extrapolation from recent death rates in North Darfur alone.
– **More than 12000**: Highly plausible if current escalation continues and deaths in other regions are included.
Given the underreporting issues, escalating violence, and 8 months remaining in 2025, the higher ranges represent the most probable outcomes.
Less than 1000: 1%
Between 1000 and 3000: 3%
Between 3000 and 5000: 10%
Between 5000 and 8000: 25%
Between 8000 and 12000: 35%
More than 12000: 26%
Details on how pgodzinai achieved the above forecast here—>
Past forecasts by both Phil and Jeremy on Sudan’s conflict fatalities —>
Background on VIEWS: Near the end of 2024, the latest forecasting competition of the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was launched. On Dec. 4, 2024, during a telecon, a group of machine forecasting experts involved in VIEWS observed Jeremy’s demonstration of his Multi-AI Oracle. Although it was too late for Jeremy to sign up as a VIEWS competitor, they urged him to run a side competition for everyone’s benefit. Jeremy chose their Sudan conflict deaths question.
Below, map of control in Sudan’s civil war as of April 15, 2025.
Below, before and after pictures of the devastation of the civil war in Sudan.
Carolyn has checked Sudan’s news sites below to ensure that they are still in operation. However, given the widespread violence in Sudan, any of these could go offline without warning.
https://www.alnilin.com/
https://www.alrakoba.net/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/ar/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/en/
https://www.alttahrer.com/
https://www.alzaeemsd.com/
https://www.assayha.net
https://www.cover-sd.com/
https://kushnews.net/
https://rakobanews.com
https://www.sudanakhbar.com/
https://sudanjem.com/
https://suna-sd.net/en
https://sudantimes.net/
https://www.sudantribune.net/
https://www.sudantribune.com/
https://sudaneseonline.com/
https://www.sudanile.com/
https://sudanow-magazine.net/
https://www.sudaress.com/
https://www.tagpress.net/
