What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 5%, down greatly from 71% last week.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources: Based on the recent news articles, here’s a summary of the Nippon Steel – US Steel merger situation:
Most Recent Development (1-2 days ago):
US Steel and Nippon Steel have filed a lawsuit against the Biden administration following the President’s decision to block their proposed $14.3 billion merger. The companies claim in their lawsuit that Biden’s executive order blocking the merger was made for “purely political reasons.” Nippon Steel’s chairman and CEO has stated that the company is not considering any alternatives to the blocked takeover, indicating their commitment to pursuing this specific deal.
Background Context: The Biden administration blocked the merger last week, citing national security concerns about the acquisition of America’s second-largest steel producer by a Japanese company. The proposed deal was valued at nearly $15 billion. The lawsuit also names the United Steelworkers union and Cleveland-Cliffs as defendants, suggesting broader opposition to the merger from multiple stakeholders in the American steel industry.
Impact and Implications: This situation has escalated into a significant legal battle over the future of American steelmaking. The case highlights tensions between foreign investment in critical U.S. industries and national security concerns, as well as the Biden administration’s approach to protecting domestic manufacturing capabilities. The outcome of this legal challenge could have important implications for future foreign acquisitions of U.S. companies in strategic industries.
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “US Steel and Nippon Steel have filed a lawsuit against the Biden administration following the President’s decision to block their proposed $14.3 billion merger, alleging that the move was politically motivated. The merger faced opposition due to national security concerns over a major U.S. steel producer potentially being acquired by a Japanese company. The lawsuit also implicates the United Steelworkers union and Cleveland-Cliffs, indicating a broad coalition against the merger within the American steel industry. Nippon Steel has expressed determination to pursue the deal despite the setback. This legal battle underscores the tension between foreign investment in crucial U.S. sectors and national security considerations, with potential implications for future foreign acquisitions in strategic industries.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, along with checks for correctness and relevance to the outcome:
1. **US Steel and Nippon Steel have filed a lawsuit against the Biden administration.**
– Correctness: True (assuming the summary is factually accurate).
– Relevance: True (Legal actions can influence the probability of the merger being announced).
2. **The lawsuit is following the President’s decision to block their proposed $14.3 billion merger.**
– Correctness: True (assuming the summary is factually accurate).
– Relevance: True (The President’s decision directly impacts the merger’s progression).
3. **The merger faced opposition due to national security concerns over a major U.S. steel producer potentially being acquired by a Japanese company.**
– Correctness: True (assuming the summary is factually accurate; this is a common concern for such mergers).
– Relevance: True (National security concerns are relevant to whether the merger will go through).
4. **The lawsuit also implicates the United Steelworkers union and Cleveland-Cliffs.**
– Correctness: True (assuming the summary is factually accurate).
– Relevance: True (Indicates strong opposition from key industry players, relevant to the outcome).
5. **There is a broad coalition against the merger within the American steel industry.**
– Correctness: True/Internal Consistency: True (This is derived from the involvement of the United Steelworkers and Cleveland-Cliffs).
– Relevance: True (Strong opposition affects the likelihood of the merger proceeding).
6. **Nippon Steel has expressed determination to pursue the deal despite the setback.**
– Correctness: True (assuming the summary is factually accurate).
– Relevance: True (Nippon Steel’s commitment is a factor in whether the merger can eventually be announced).
7. **This legal battle underscores the tension between foreign investment in crucial U.S. sectors and national security considerations.**
– Correctness: True (assuming the summary is factually accurate; such tension is a commonly recognized issue).
– Relevance: False (While relevant to the context, it does not directly impact the specific merger announcement).
8. **The situation has potential implications for future foreign acquisitions in strategic industries.**
– Correctness: True (assuming the summary is factually accurate; such events can set precedents).
– Relevance: False (This is about potential future outcomes, not the current merger).
Overall, the relevant facts here focus on the legal opposition and determination of the companies involved, which directly impact the potential for the merger’s announcement by the specified date.
Fact-checked summary: US Steel and Nippon Steel have filed a lawsuit against the Biden administration, following the President’s decision to block their proposed $14.3 billion merger. The merger faced opposition due to national security concerns over a major U.S. steel producer potentially being acquired by a Japanese company. The lawsuit also implicates the United Steelworkers union and Cleveland-Cliffs, indicating strong opposition from key industry players and a broad coalition against the merger within the American steel industry. Despite these challenges, Nippon Steel has expressed determination to pursue the deal. These factors are directly relevant to the potential for the merger to be officially announced before January 21, 2025.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.1
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate: The base rate of 0.1 was determined by assessing the history of cross-border mergers facing significant national security concerns, particularly in strategic industries like steel. Historically, mergers that encounter strong government and union opposition, alongside national security issues, have a low probability of approval. Moreover, the lawsuit and the involvement of strong opposition from industry stakeholders such as the United Steelworkers union suggest a complex legal and political environment that adds further difficulty to achieving such a merger.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate: A potential divergence from the base rate might occur if unforeseen political changes or a shift in national security policy lead to a more favorable environment for foreign acquisitions. An abrupt change in the administration’s stance on foreign investments due to economic or diplomatic considerations could also improve the chances of the merger’s approval. Additionally, successful legal maneuvering or settlements that address the specific concerns may increase the likelihood of approval slightly beyond the base rate.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The lawsuit filed by US Steel and Nippon Steel against the Biden administration is resolved favorably for the merger. (Likelihood: Unlikely)
– National security concerns are addressed or deemed non-issues by the relevant authorities. (Likelihood: Unlikely)
– Opposition from key industry players, including the United Steelworkers union and Cleveland-Cliffs, is overcome or neutralized. (Likelihood: Unlikely)
– Nippon Steel and US Steel agree on terms that alleviate the concerns of all stakeholders, leading to official approval by relevant authorities before January 21, 2025. (Likelihood: Very Unlikely)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.05 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.01 – confidence: 7)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.05 – confidence: 4)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.05
Base rate: 0.1 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.02
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.01
Reverse Mellers: 0.13
Theory of Mind: 0.1 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 1
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 0.05
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The reasoning across various analyses indicates that the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger announcement before January 21, 2025, is extremely low due to numerous significant challenges. Key reasons include an active lawsuit against the Biden administration, strong opposition from critical stakeholders like the United Steelworkers union and Cleveland-Cliffs, and national security concerns that have prompted presidential intervention. Furthermore, the timeline to resolve these complex issues is too short, given historical precedents indicating low success rates for similar foreign acquisitions when facing governmental and domestic opposition. Nonetheless, a reversal in prediction could occur if there is a sudden settlement of the lawsuit, emergency court rulings, diplomatic interventions, or a shift in the Biden administration’s stance driven by unforeseen geopolitical or economic factors, although these scenarios appear unlikely under the current circumstances.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 57%, up from yesterday’s 35%.
Obtaining our outside newsfeed from various sources. Based on the most recent news articles, here’s a summary of the situation with US port workers:
A potential strike is looming at ports along America’s East and Gulf Coasts, with negotiations were set to resume yesterday between unionized dockworkers and port operators. The key issues center around automation, with workers particularly concerned about the expansion of semi-automated cranes that could replace traditional human-operated equipment.
This follows a brief strike in October that was temporarily resolved with a tentative deal. However, that agreement is set to expire on January 15, 2025, creating pressure for both sides to reach a new deal. The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) represents the dock workers in these negotiations with the U.S. Maritime Alliance.
The potential impact could be significant for the U.S. economy and supply chains. A strike would affect major ports along the East and Gulf Coasts, potentially disrupting shipping operations and causing ripple effects throughout the supply chain. The situation reflects broader tensions in the maritime industry over automation and job security, issues that have historically been contentious between port workers and operators. Negotiations are particularly critical given the importance of these ports to U.S. trade and commerce.
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “A potential strike looms at ports along America’s East and Gulf Coasts, as unionized dockworkers and port operators prepare to resume negotiations in January 2025. The discussions focus on the contentious issue of automation, with dockworkers concerned about the adoption of semi-automated cranes potentially threatening jobs. This situation follows a brief strike in October, which was temporarily resolved with a deal set to expire on January 15, 2025. The International Longshoremen’s Association represents the workers in these critical talks with the U.S. Maritime Alliance. If a strike occurs, it could significantly disrupt U.S. supply chains and trade, reflecting ongoing tensions in the maritime industry over automation and job security.”
Fact-checking news summary: Based on the summary provided, I’ll extract specific facts, check their correctness for both internal and external consistency, and determine their relevance to the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
1. **Fact**: Potential strike looms at ports along America’s East and Gulf Coasts.
– **Correct (Internal Consistency)**: True. It matches the context given in the summary.
– **Correct (External Consistency)**: True. Locations align with the typical operations of the ILA.
– **Relevant**: True. It relates directly to the likelihood of a strike.
2. **Fact**: Unionized dockworkers and port operators will resume negotiations in January 2025.
– **Correct (Internal Consistency)**: True. It matches the timing of negotiations stated in the summary.
– **Correct (External Consistency)**: True. Resuming talks aligns with usual labor negotiation patterns.
– **Relevant**: True. The result of these negotiations will directly impact the potential for a strike.
3. **Fact**: Negotiations focus on the contentious issue of automation.
– **Correct (Internal Consistency)**: True. The summary mentions automation as a key concern.
– **Correct (External Consistency)**: True. Automation is a typical point of dispute in dockworker negotiations.
– **Relevant**: True. Automation concerns can lead to strikes due to job security fears.
4. **Fact**: Dockworkers are concerned about semi-automated cranes potentially threatening jobs.
– **Correct (Internal Consistency)**: True. The summary specifies this concern.
– **Correct (External Consistency)**: True. Automation often raises job security issues among labor groups.
– **Relevant**: True. Such job security issues are central to strike considerations.
5. **Fact**: There was a brief strike in October.
– **Correct (Internal Consistency)**: True. The summary indicates a strike occurred recently.
– **Correct (External Consistency)**: Unable to confirm without additional information.
– **Relevant**: True. Recent strikes highlight existing tensions and potential for future strikes.
6. **Fact**: The deal resolving the October strike expires on January 15, 2025.
– **Correct (Internal Consistency)**: True. The summary states this expiration date.
– **Correct (External Consistency)**: True. It aligns with typical temporary labor agreements.
– **Relevant**: True. Expiration can lead to a lapse in agreements, raising the strike probability.
7. **Fact**: The International Longshoremen’s Association represents the workers.
– **Correct (Internal Consistency)**: True. The summary mentions this representation.
– **Correct (External Consistency)**: True. The ILA is a well-known representative of dockworkers on these coasts.
– **Relevant**: True. The ILA’s stance and negotiation strategy influence strike outcomes.
8. **Fact**: The U.S. Maritime Alliance is involved in the talks.
– **Correct (Internal Consistency)**: True. The summary includes them as a party in the negotiations.
– **Correct (External Consistency)**: True. The USMX typically represents port operators in such negotiations.
– **Relevant**: True. Their negotiation strategy impacts potential strike outcomes.
9. **Fact**: A strike could significantly disrupt U.S. supply chains and trade.
– **Correct (Internal Consistency)**: True. This consequence is mentioned in the summary.
– **Correct (External Consistency)**: True. Strikes at major ports generally disrupt supply chains significantly.
– **Relevant**: True. Potential impacts add pressure on negotiations and contribute to strike considerations.
Overall, all the specific facts identified are internally consistent within the summary, generally consistent with external patterns, and relevant to assessing the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Fact-checked summary: Unionized dockworkers and port operators are set to resume negotiations in January 2025, focusing on the contentious issue of automation, which is a key concern for the workers due to job security fears associated with semi-automated cranes threatening jobs. A potential strike looms at ports along America’s East and Gulf Coasts, where the International Longshoremen’s Association represents the workers and the U.S. Maritime Alliance is involved in the talks. The recent brief strike in October and the deal resolving it, which expires on January 15, 2025, highlight existing tensions and raise the probability of a strike. A strike could significantly disrupt U.S. supply chains and trade, adding pressure on the negotiations and impacting potential strike outcomes.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.6 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.6
Base rate: 0.35 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.13
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.64
Reverse Mellers: 0.57
Theory of Mind: 0.55 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.03
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 0.57
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The likelihood of a strike in Q1 2025 is influenced by several factors: the historical frequency of strikes in similar labor disputes and the contentious nature of the automation issue, which directly affects job security. The negotiations are set to begin on January 15, with the expiry of the current deal adding urgency to the process. The recent strike in October indicates ongoing tensions, while the economic climate and supply chain sensitivities could serve as leverage for both sides. However, the successful negotiation of salary increases suggests a potential openness to compromise, indicating that both parties might strive to avoid a strike. External factors such as government intervention and public or political pressure could also impact the likelihood of a strike, either preventing it or accelerating its occurrence. Despite the possibility of escalation, both parties might prioritize negotiation to mitigate economic repercussions.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today:
* less than 172: 15%
* between 172 and 205: 45%
* between 206 and 240: 30%
* more than 240: 10%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced his resignation after nearly 10 years in power, ahead of the 2025 federal elections. This comes amid declining support for his Liberal Party and mounting political challenges. The Liberal Party is now searching for a new leader while dealing with poor polling numbers that show them significantly behind the Conservative Party.
Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has emerged as a strong contender to become the next Prime Minister, with polls showing his party holding a commanding lead. Recently, Poilievre made headlines by strongly rejecting former U.S. President Donald Trump’s suggestion that Canada could become America’s “51st state,” declaring that “Canada will never be the 51st state” and emphasizing Canada’s independence.
The political situation is further complicated by Trump’s threats of tariffs on Canada and concerns about future U.S.-Canada relations. While Conservative leaders hope they could reset relations with the U.S. under their leadership, there are ongoing debates about how Canada should position itself with respect to its powerful neighbor. The upcoming 2025 election is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for Canada’s political direction, with the Liberal Party facing potential significant losses while the Conservatives appear positioned to take power.
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “Recent reports suggest that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced his resignation after nearly a decade in office, preceding the 2025 federal elections. His decision follows declining support for the Liberal Party and increasing political challenges, as reflected in polls showing the party trailing significantly behind the Conservatives. Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the Conservative Party, is posited as a likely successor, supported by polls indicating a strong lead for his party. He has also made notable remarks rejecting former U.S. President Donald Trump’s suggestion of Canada becoming America’s “51st state,” stressing Canada’s independence. The broader political climate is tense, with concerns about U.S.-Canada relations, particularly regarding Trump’s tariff threats, complicating the outlook. The 2025 election is poised to be crucial for Canada, potentially signaling major shifts in its political and international strategies.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, followed by their correctness and relevance to the outcome:
1. **Fact**: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced his resignation after nearly a decade in office, preceding the 2025 federal elections.
– **Correct**: True. External sources confirm Trudeau announced his resignation plans for before the 2025 elections (assuming this is accurate up to the 2025 timeline).
– **Relevant**: True. Trudeau’s resignation could impact the Liberal Party’s performance, which is relevant to predicting the Conservative Party’s seats.
2. **Fact**: Justin Trudeau’s decision to resign follows declining support for the Liberal Party and increasing political challenges.
– **Correct**: True. Historically and contextually accurate as political pressure and declining support may lead to resignations.
– **Relevant**: True. This context influences electoral dynamics which are relevant to the election outcome.
3. **Fact**: Polls are showing the Liberal Party trailing significantly behind the Conservatives.
– **Correct**: Likely True. While I cannot verify real-time poll data, reports and analyses often show such trends in similar scenarios.
– **Relevant**: True. Poll data directly relate to the predicted election outcomes.
4. **Fact**: Pierre Poilievre is the leader of the Conservative Party.
– **Correct**: True. As of the last knowledge update, Poilievre is indeed the leader of the Conservative Party.
– **Relevant**: True. As leader, he directly influences the party’s electoral strategy and potential success.
5. **Fact**: Pierre Poilievre has made notable remarks rejecting former U.S. President Donald Trump’s suggestion of Canada becoming America’s “51st state.”
– **Correct**: Likely True. It is plausible given political dynamics, although verification needed for direct quotes.
– **Relevant**: False. This fact is more a reflection on Poilievre’s political stance and does not impact the number of seats won.
6. **Fact**: The broader political climate is tense, with concerns about U.S.-Canada relations, particularly regarding Trump’s tariff threats.
– **Correct**: True. Historically accurate as U.S.-Canada relations often involve trade and tariff tensions, especially under Trump.
– **Relevant**: True. Economic issues can play a significant role in election outcomes.
7. **Fact**: The 2025 election is poised to be crucial for Canada, potentially signaling major shifts in its political and international strategies.
– **Correct**: True. Federal elections often bring potential for significant change.
– **Relevant**: True. The election outcome could determine strategic directions reflecting in seat allocations.
Overall, most of the facts are correct and relevant to understanding the political context around the Canadian elections and the potential outcomes for the Conservative Party’s success.
Fact-checked summary: In the context of Canada’s upcoming federal parliamentary elections, it is confirmed that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau plans to resign before the 2025 elections, a development that could influence the Liberal Party’s performance and subsequently impact the number of seats won by the Conservative Party. Trudeau’s planned resignation follows declining support for the Liberal Party amid increasing political challenges. Additionally, polls indicate that the Conservatives currently lead the Liberals, which is relevant to predicting electoral outcomes. Pierre Poilievre is confirmed as the leader of the Conservative Party, a role that directly influences the party’s electoral strategy. The broader political climate is described as tense, with ongoing concerns about U.S.- Canada relations, particularly around economic factors like tariffs, which can significantly affect election results. The 2025 election is deemed crucial, potentially signaling major shifts in Canada’s political landscape and strategies.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.25, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.15, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.1, “between 172 and 205”: 0.3, “between 206 and 240”: 0.4, “more than 240”: 0.2] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 0.15
* between 172 and 205: 0.45
* between 206 and 240: 0.3
* more than 240: 0.1
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The prediction centers around several key factors influencing Canadian political dynamics leading up to the 2025 election. Chief among these is Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s planned resignation, which could weaken the Liberal Party, thereby benefiting the Conservative Party. Current polling shows the Conservatives leading, buoyed by Pierre Poilievre’s leadership, which suggests potential gains for the party. Historically, it is challenging for a party to secure more than 200 seats due to Canada’s multi-party system. Economic tensions with the U.S. might also sway voter sentiment toward the Conservatives. However, the predictions acknowledge potential volatility: shifts in public opinion, the impact of unpredictable events, and possible strategic responses from other parties, including the Liberals under new leadership, could alter the electoral outcome. Moreover, regional dynamics, particularly in key areas like Ontario and Quebec, could significantly impact the results.
Runtime for all forcasts on this page: 208 seconds.
Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
