How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025?
Phil’s pgodzinai, a multi-GenAI bot, is a side competitor with the machine forecasting bots of the VIEWS competition.
Here’s what Phil’s pgodzinai predicts today:
* Less than 1000: 1%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 3%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 7%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 15%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 28%
* More than 12000: 46%
Model’s Answer:
# Analysis of Conflict Deaths in Sudan for 2025
## Current Situation Assessment
The conflict in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) shows no signs of abating as it enters its third year. Recent reports indicate an intensification of violence, particularly in Darfur. The most striking evidence comes from UN data showing at least 481 confirmed civilian deaths in North Darfur alone since April 10, 2025 – representing approximately 34 deaths per day over a two-week period. This rate is alarming and suggests a significant escalation compared to previous periods.
Multiple sources confirm a deteriorating situation with the RSF launching offensives against civilian targets, including IDP camps. The attack on Zamzam IDP camp resulted in 210 deaths between April 11-13, and more recent attacks in El Fasher caused at least 57 civilian deaths. These numbers are likely undercounts due to limited access for verification.
## Historical Context and Trends
Looking at previous data, estimates indicate approximately 28,700 deaths by November 2024 since the conflict began in April 2023. Independent studies suggest the actual toll could be as high as 130,000 when accounting for indirect deaths. The conflict has caused massive displacement with 12-15 million internally displaced persons and over 3.3 million refugees in neighboring countries.
The current data from April 2025 shows an alarming acceleration in violence. If the observed rate of approximately 34 confirmed deaths per day were to continue for the remainder of 2025, this would result in approximately 8,330 additional deaths for the remaining 245 days of the year. Adding the estimated deaths from January through April would likely push the total well above 10,000 for the year.
## Factors Affecting Future Death Rates
Several factors suggest the death toll may continue at high levels:
1. **Military Dynamics**: While SAF has gained ground in many regions, RSF still maintains influence in Darfur and continues offensive operations, targeting civilians.
2. **Humanitarian Crisis**: The collapse of healthcare infrastructure, food insecurity affecting 24.6 million people, and 8.5 million facing famine-like conditions will contribute to conflict-related deaths.
3. **Limited International Intervention**: Despite diplomatic efforts, no effective ceasefire is in place. Humanitarian aid is severely constrained, with only 10% of the required $4.2 billion funding received.
4. **Targeting of Civilians**: The systematic targeting of civilian populations, particularly in IDP camps, represents a shift toward more deadly tactics.
## Uncertainty Factors
There are some factors that could modify these projections:
1. **Potential Peace Agreement**: While unlikely given current dynamics, a successful peace process could reduce deaths in the latter part of 2025.
2. **Seasonal Variations**: The upcoming rainy season could impact military operations, potentially reducing direct combat deaths but increasing disease-related mortality.
3. **Reporting Limitations**: Current death counts are likely significant undercounts due to limited access to conflict zones and reporting challenges.
## Probability Distribution Analysis
Based on the current death rate of approximately 34 confirmed deaths per day (which is likely an undercount), and considering the 8 months remaining in 2025, we can project the following scenarios:
– If the conflict continues at the current intensity: Death toll likely exceeds 12,000
– If the conflict moderates slightly: Death toll likely between 8,000-12,000
– If significant de-escalation occurs: Death toll might fall to 5,000-8,000
– If major peace agreement is implemented soon: Death toll could be 3,000-5,000
– If immediate cessation of hostilities: Death toll might be 1,000-3,000
– If conflict ends immediately: Death toll less than 1,000 (extremely unlikely)
Given the evidence of intensification rather than de-escalation, the probability mass should be concentrated in the higher brackets. The observed death rate of 481+ deaths in just two weeks (34+ per day) in North Darfur alone suggests that, even with some fluctuation, the annual total will likely exceed 8,000 and quite possibly 12,000.
## Final Probability Assessment
Given the recent escalation in violence, the lack of progress toward peace, ongoing targeting of civilians, and the humanitarian crisis, I assess the probability distribution as follows:
* Less than 1000: 1%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 3%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 7%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 15%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 28%
* More than 12000: 46%
Details on how pgodzinai achieved the below forecast here—>
Model’s Answer:
Details on how Phil’s pgodzinai arrived at the above forecasts –>
Past forecasts by both Phil and Jeremy on Sudan’s conflict fatalities —>
Background on VIEWS: Near the end of 2024, the latest forecasting competition of the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was launched. On Dec. 4, 2024, during a telecon, a group of machine forecasting experts involved in VIEWS observed Jeremy’s demonstration of his Multi-AI Oracle. Although it was too late for Jeremy to sign up as a VIEWS competitor, they urged him to run a side competition for everyone’s benefit. Jeremy chose their Sudan conflict deaths question.
Below, map of control in Sudan’s civil war as of April 15, 2025.
Below, before and after pictures of the devastation of the civil war in Sudan.
Carolyn has checked Sudan’s news sites below to ensure that they are still in operation. However, given the widespread violence in Sudan, any of these could go offline without warning.
https://www.alnilin.com/
https://www.alrakoba.net/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/ar/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/en/
https://www.alttahrer.com/
https://www.alzaeemsd.com/
https://www.assayha.net
https://www.cover-sd.com/
https://kushnews.net/
https://rakobanews.com
https://www.sudanakhbar.com/
https://sudanjem.com/
https://suna-sd.net/en
https://sudantimes.net/
https://www.sudantribune.net/
https://www.sudantribune.com/
https://sudaneseonline.com/
https://www.sudanile.com/
https://sudanow-magazine.net/
https://www.sudaress.com/
https://www.tagpress.net/
