How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025?
Phil’s pgodzinai is a side competitor with the machine forecasting bots of the VIEWS competition.
Perplexity response:
Looking at the search results, all are from 2025, specifically around April 28, 2025. So the election is actually scheduled for April 28, 2025, not 2024. That’s a key point. The user might have a typo in the year. I need to correct that in the answer.
Next, the user is a superforecaster’s research assistant, so the answer needs to be detailed with recent sources. The query provides possible options, and I need to assess which range the Conservatives will fall into based on the latest info.
From the search results, the Liberals under Mark Carney are facing a tight race with the Conservatives. The first source from Lemonde.fr on April 28, 2025, mentions that the Conservatives’ polling numbers have dropped in favor of the Liberals. But the user’s background says the Conservatives need at least 172 seats to avoid a coalition. The current seat count before the election is: Liberals had over 150, Conservatives 120, Bloc Quebecois 33, NDP 24, Greens 2, according to Axios’s April 24, 2025, article. So there are 343 seats total.
The resolution criteria mention the Conservative Party’s seat count. The recent polls indicate a tight race. The Economic Times article from April 28, 2025, says the Liberals might lose to the Conservatives until Trump’s attacks, which could have shifted things. Carney’s policies, like abolishing the carbon tax, might be trying to win over Conservative voters.
But in the Axios article, the Liberals were in majority with over 150 seats before dissolution. The Conservatives had 120. If the Conservatives need 172+ seats, they need to gain 52 seats. The tight race suggests they might not reach that. The Lemonde article mentions that the race is tight, with Alberta’s 37 seats possibly being decisive. If the election is very tight, Alberta’s seats could tip the balance.
The Our Commons.ca source is from April 28, 2025, but it’s about the seats per party, which doesn’t provide current standings. The Wikipedia link is about Reform UK, which isn’t relevant here.
Putting this together: The Conservatives had 120 seats before the election. If they gain enough to reach 172, they need 52 more. The polls are tight, with some sources indicating the Liberals might maintain their lead, especially after Trump’s interference. However, with the Carbon tax abolished and pipeline projects emphasized, there might be some shift. The mention of Alberta’s 37 MPs being crucial suggests a possible close result where the Conservatives might gain seats but not enough to reach 172. So the likely outcome is between 130 and 171 seats.
I need to structure the answer with citations from the relevant sources, noting the tight race, the required 172 seats, and the reasons the Conservatives might not reach it. Emphasize the dates of the sources to show recency.
—
### **1. Seat Requirements and Current Context**
The Conservative Party needs **172+ seats** to form a majority government without requiring coalition support[3]. Pre-election standings (as of April 2025):
| Party | Seats Before Election |
|———————|———————–|
| Liberals (Carney) | >150 |
| Conservatives | 120 |
| Bloc Québécois | 33 |
| NDP | 24 |
| Greens | 2 |
**Total Seats**: 343[3].
—
### **2. Recent Polling Trends and Electoral Dynamics**
**Key Developments**:
– **Tight Race**: Polls indicate a “[tight race between Liberals and Conservatives](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/04/28/canada-tight-race-between-liberals-and-conservatives-ahead-of-monday-s-federal-elections_6740691_4.html)” as of April 28, 2025, with the Liberals gaining ground recently[1][4].
– **Policy Shifts**: The Liberals under PM Mark Carney have abolished the unpopular carbon tax and prioritized pipeline projects, seeking to appeal to conservative-leaning voters[1]. However, skepticism persists among oil industry members, who remain distrustful of Liberal environmental policies[1].
– **Alberta’s Role**: Alberta’s 37 MPs could swing the election, with threats of a provincial independence referendum if Carney’s Liberals win[1].
—
### **3. Projected Seat Ranges**
Based on the available data, the Conservatives are unlikely to reach the **172-seat threshold**. Most indicators suggest a result closer to **130–171 seats**:
– **Pre-Election Seat Gain Potential**: The Conservatives held 120 seats pre-election and face challenges in gaining sufficient seats to reach a majority, especially with the Liberals consolidating support[1][3].
– **Regional Challenges**: The Bloc Québécois and NDP may retain seats in Québec and other regions, limiting Conservative gains[3].
– **Uncertainty Factors**: Donald Trump’s recent tariff threats and interference in Canadian politics have complicated the race, potentially benefiting the Liberals as voters rally around stability[4][3].
—
### **4. Critical Dates and Sources**
| **Source** | **Date** | **Key Insight** |
|———————————|—————-|———————————————————————————|
| [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/04/28/canada-tight-race-between-liberals-and-conservatives-ahead-of-monday-s-federal-elections_6740691_4.html) | April 28, 2025 | Tight race; Alberta’s 37 seats as a potential swing factor; oil industry skepticism toward Liberals. |
| [Axios](https://www.axios.com/2025/04/24/canada-election-trump-carney-poilievre-tariffs) | April 24, 2025 | Pre-election seat breakdown; Liberals’ majority status; Trump’s influence. |
| [Economic Times](https://economictimes.com/news/international/global-trends/canada-election-results-2025-live-updates-justin-trudeau-mark-carney-riding-wise-federal-polls-vote-tracker-live-map-mark-carney-pierre-poilievre/liveblog/120681321.cms) | April 28, 2025 | Liberals losing momentum until Trump’s interference; tight election dynamics. |
| [Our Commons](https://www.ourcommons.ca/members/en/party-standings) | April 28, 2025 | Official seat tally pending; results to be finalized by May 19, 2025. |
—
### **5. Conclusion**
The Conservative Party is most likely to win **between 130 and 171 seats**, falling short of the 172-seat threshold required for a majority. This projection aligns with recent polling showing a competitive but narrow race and the Liberals’ efforts to retain incumbency advantages[1][3][4].
—
*LNote: The election results will be officially confirmed by the Chief Electoral Officer, with final counts expected by May 19, 2025[2].*
AskNews Deep Search Response:
Here is the detailed breakdown of key information and sources regarding seat projections for Canada’s April 28, 2025 parliamentary election:
### **10 Key Citations**
1. **Milenio.com** (April 28, 2025)
– **Title:** *”Canadenses vão às urnas em eleição ofuscada por ameaças e tarifas de Trump”*
– **Summary:** CBC poll average shows Liberals leading with 42% support, projected to win **172 seats** (majority threshold), while Conservatives are at 38% with **136 seats**. Highlighted regional strength in Ontario/Quebec for Liberals. [7]
2. **Business Standard** (April 28, 2025)
– **Title:** *”Canada polls today: Who will be the next Prime Minister?”*
– **Summary:** Polls show Liberals at 42% nationally, projected to secure **189 seats** (70% chance of majority). Conservatives face an uphill battle with only an 11% chance of winning. [12]
3. **Narcity** (April 26, 2025)
– **Title:** *”Canada’s election polls are tightening…”*
– **Summary:** 338Canada.com projects Liberals at **42.3%** vs. Conservatives at **38.6%**, emphasizing vote efficiency favoring Liberals in urban ridings. [27]
4. **kiwiblog.co.nz** (April 26, 2025)
– **Title:** *”Liberals looking comfortable in Canada”*
– **Summary:** 338Canada gives Liberals an 89% chance of winning the most seats, projecting **124 Conservative seats** (up from 120). Final betting markets favor Liberals at 82–88% odds. [28]
5. **POLITICO** (April 27, 2025)
– **Title:** *”Strange Data in the Polls”*
– **Summary:** Experts predict Liberals will win a majority, citing Trump-driven nationalism and Carney’s leadership. Ontario and Quebec are critical to securing over 172 seats. [24]
6. **РБК** (April 28, 2025)
– **Title:** *”Как Трамп изменил расклад сил перед досрочными выборами в Канаде”*
– **Summary:** Abacus survey shows 49% of voters prioritize economic stability, benefiting Liberals. Conservatives trail by 3–5 points nationally. [11]
7. **Global News** (April 27, 2025)
– **Title:** *”Liberals hold four-point lead over Conservatives…”*
– **Summary:** Ipsos poll shows Liberals at **42%** vs. Conservatives at **38%**, with decisive leads in Ontario/Québec. Only 5% of voters remain undecided. [41]
8. **Radio Canada** (April 28, 2025)
– **Title:** *”L’Ontario, une province cruciale lors de l’élection fédérale”*
– **Summary:** Ontario’s 122 seats are pivotal. Liberals dominate urban ridings (Greater Toronto), while Conservatives lag despite tariff concerns. [30]
9. **Pulse24.com** (April 28, 2025)
– **Title:** *”Liberals lead Conservatives by 3 points…”*
– **Summary:** Final Nanos poll: Liberals at **43%**, Conservatives at **40%**. Liberals lead in BC/Ontario/Québec; Conservatives dominate Prairies. Seat efficiency favors Liberals. [36]
10. **국민일보** (April 28, 2025)
– **Title:** *”트럼프가 만든 역전…캐나다 총선서 좌파 낙승할 듯”*
– **Summary:** 338Canada projects Liberals at **187 seats** vs. Conservatives at **125**, citing Trump’s threats and Carney’s economic credibility. Conservatives struggle in Ontario/Quebec. [35]
—
### **Analysis**
The **Conservative Party** is projected to win **125–136 seats**, placing them in the **”between 130 and 171″** category. Key factors influencing this range:
1. **Polling Trends**: Conservatives hold **38–40%** national support but lag in seat-rich Ontario/Québec [7][36][41].
2. **Regional Divide**: Conservative strength in Alberta/Prairies (fewer seats) contrasts with Liberal dominance in urban Ontario/Québec [30][43].
3. **Seat Efficiency**: Liberals convert votes into seats more effectively (e.g., 42% vote share ≈ 172+ seats) due to geographic concentration [27][35].
4. **Trump Factor**: Tariff threats boosted Liberal support by 5–10 points since January, eroding Conservative momentum [24][35].
**Authoritative Sources**:
– **Nanos Research**: Liberals at **43%**, Conservatives at **40%** (April 28) [36].
– **338Canada**: Liberals **68% chance of majority** (April 26) [28].
– **Ipsos**: Liberals lead in all regions except Prairies (April 27) [41].
**Critical Uncertainty**:
– Turnout in Ontario’s suburban ridings and Quebec’s Bloc Québécois performance could shift seat counts marginally, but a Conservative majority (>172 seats) is highly unlikely.
GPT News Summary:
Based on recent polls and analyses from April 2025, the Conservative Party in Canada is projected to face significant challenges in the April 28, 2025, parliamentary election:
1. **Polling Averages**: The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, is currently polling at around 38-39%, trailing behind the Liberal Party led by Mark Carney, which is polling at 42-43% (Milenio, NV, Business Standard, Asiae; April 28, 2025).
2. **Seat Projections**: Conservative seat projections range between 107 to 140 seats in Parliament. The upper end of these projections does not meet the 172-seat threshold needed for a majority government, indicating that the Conservatives are unlikely to form a government without a coalition (Economic Times; April 24, 2025).
3. **Election Trends**: The Liberal Party is expected to win due to its resurgence in regions critical for securing a majority—namely, Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia—where the Conservatives have struggled to solidify support (L’Express; April 27, 2025).
4. **Effect of Donald Trump’s Policies**: Donald Trump’s trade policies and rhetoric have played a role in uniting votes in favor of the Liberal Party, particularly as anti-American sentiments influence voter decisions. The Conservatives have found challenging navigating these sentiments while trying to differentiate their platform from Trump-like policies (Asiae, YNA; April 27, 2025).
5. **Electoral Dynamics**: The election environment is highly competitive but colored by issues of sovereignty and economic management, with the Liberals viewed more favorably in managing current international challenges. The Conservative Party’s more right-leaning positions have not translated into broader urban appeal (Jiji.com, Elliot Lake Standard; March 25, April 26, 2025).
6. **Potential Outcomes**: Despite some last-minute gains, the overall environment suggests the Conservatives have only an 11% chance of winning the most seats, whereas the Liberals are likely to form a government either by majority or through a coalition (Business Standard; April 28, 2025).
Thus, considering the current polling and seat projections, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party is expected to secure a minority of seats, likely under the 172-seat threshold needed for a majority.
Extracted resolution criteria links:
[]
GPT Multiple Choice JSON response:
Polling over the final week (CBC/Nanos/Ipsos averages) shows the Conservatives trailing the Liberals by roughly 3-5 pts nationally (≈38-40 % vs 42-43 %). 338Canada and other seat-modelers translate that gap into just 125-140 Conservative seats because:
• Vote efficiency: Liberal support is concentrated in seat-rich urban Ontario/Québec; Conservative votes pile up in already-safe Prairie ridings.
• Regional ceilings: Even an Alberta/Saskatchewan sweep only yields 50-odd seats; gains elsewhere are constrained by the Bloc in Québec and resurgent Liberals/NDP in Ontario & B.C.
• Momentum & turnout: Late-campaign issues (Trump tariff threats, Liberals scrapping the carbon tax) modestly helped the Liberals, shrinking the Conservatives’ path to pickups.
• History: Since 1988 no Canadian party has leapt from a 120-seat opposition to a 172-seat majority in a single election without leading the polls decisively—something the Conservatives clearly are not doing.
With 172 seats needed for a majority and virtually every reputable model giving them <10 % chance of even winning the most seats, a majority (172-205) is possible but very unlikely; anything above 205 borders on fantasy. Most probability mass therefore sits below 171, with a tilt toward the <130 bucket because a modest Liberal vote-share lead typically costs the Conservatives seats in Ontario/Atlantic Canada.
Option probabilities:
Option_A (<130): 57
Option_B (130-171): 35
Option_C (172-205): 6
Option_D (206-240): 1
Option_E (>240): 1
probability_yes_per_category: {‘less than 130’: 0.57, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.35, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.06, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.01, ‘more than 240’: 0.01}
________________________
Anthropic response:
# Analysis of Conservative Party Seat Projections in Canada’s 2025 Election
## Current Political Context and Information Assessment
The question asks about the Conservative Party’s seat count in Canada’s parliamentary election occurring on April 28, 2025. First, I need to assess the reliability and consistency of the information provided by the research assistants.
All three research assistants provide detailed polling data and seat projections from April 2025, with sources dated within days of the election. The information is recent, relevant, and largely consistent across sources. The assistants cite reputable polling organizations and media outlets, including 338Canada, Nanos Research, Ipsos, CBC, and Global News.
## Key Factors for Forecast
### 1. Current Polling Averages
Multiple polls consistently show the Conservatives trailing the Liberals:
– Liberals: 42-43% support nationally
– Conservatives: 38-40% support nationally
### 2. Seat Projections from Multiple Models
There’s remarkable consistency in Conservative seat projections across sources:
– 338Canada projects 124-125 Conservative seats
– CBC poll average projects 136 Conservative seats
– Various other models project 107-140 seats
– The pre-election seat count was 120 seats
### 3. Regional Factors
The Conservatives face significant challenges in seat-rich provinces:
– Strong in Alberta and Prairie provinces (fewer seats overall)
– Weaker in Ontario (122 seats) and Quebec, where Liberals dominate urban ridings
– This regional distribution creates vote efficiency problems for the Conservatives
### 4. External Factors
Donald Trump’s trade threats and rhetoric appear to have boosted Liberal support by triggering nationalist sentiment in Canada, further complicating Conservative prospects.
## Historical Context and Precedent
Historically, Canadian elections can produce surprising results, but the consistency of polling so close to election day (most sources within 1-4 days of the election) suggests limited volatility. In previous Canadian elections, late polls within days of the election have generally provided reasonably accurate projections.
## Probability Distribution Analysis
Based on the evidence, I can now assess probabilities for each outcome bracket:
### “Less than 130 seats”
– Multiple credible projections place the Conservatives in this range
– Several sources specifically cite 124-125 seats
– The Conservative floor appears to be around 107 seats
– Pre-election seat count was 120
– Probability: ~45%
### “Between 130 and 171 seats”
– Some projections (e.g., CBC) suggest 136 seats
– Upper projections reach around 140 seats
– Historical volatility suggests some possibility of overperformance
– The regional distribution makes reaching the upper end of this range difficult
– Probability: ~53%
### “Between 172 and 205 seats”
– This would require significant polling error
– All projections place Conservatives well below this threshold
– Would require unexpected collapse of Liberal support in Ontario/Quebec
– No models or projections suggest this outcome is likely
– Probability: ~2%
### “Between 206 and 240 seats” and “More than 240 seats”
– These outcomes are essentially impossible given current polling
– Would require unprecedented polling errors across multiple firms
– No historical precedent for such dramatic election day surprises
– Combined probability: ~0%
## Final Assessment
The evidence overwhelmingly suggests the Conservative Party will win between 107-140 seats, with the most likely outcomes falling in the 120-135 range. This places them primarily in the “less than 130” and “between 130 and 171” brackets, with the latter slightly more likely due to the possibility of modest outperformance of current projections.
Given the recency and consistency of the polling data (within days of the election), these projections likely have high accuracy. The limited time remaining before the election (same day) minimizes the potential for significant shifts from these projections.
Option_A: 45
Option_B: 53
Option_C: 2
Option_D: 0
Option_E: 0
probability_yes_per_category: {‘less than 130’: 0.4411764705882353, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.5196078431372549, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.0196078431372549, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.00980392156862745, ‘more than 240’: 0.00980392156862745}
________________________
Anthropic response:
# Forecasting Analysis: Conservative Party Seats in Canadian Election
## Assessment of Available Information
I’m analyzing the three research assistant reports, all focused on the Canadian federal election scheduled for April 28, 2025. The seat count threshold for a Conservative majority is 172 seats, and they previously held 120 seats.
All three reports present broadly consistent information, showing:
1. The Liberals under Mark Carney are leading in most polls (42-43% support vs. 38-40% for Conservatives)
2. Seat projections consistently show Conservatives falling short of the 172-seat majority threshold
3. Most projections place Conservatives in the 124-140 seat range, with specific projections at 124, 125, 136, and “between 107-140”
The most specific projections come from:
– CBC poll average: Conservatives at 136 seats
– 338Canada.com: Conservatives at 125 seats (up from 120)
– Business Standard: Liberals with 189 seats, implying Conservatives well below 150
– Kiwiblog citing 338Canada: Conservatives at 124 seats
## Regional Analysis
The reports consistently highlight regional patterns that disadvantage Conservatives:
1. Conservatives are strong in Alberta and the Prairie provinces but these represent relatively few seats
2. Liberals lead in seat-rich Ontario and Quebec where election outcomes are typically decided
3. Vote efficiency favors Liberals who win urban ridings that have greater seat concentration
## Time Factors and Recent Developments
The research is from April 2025, just days before the election. With the election happening on April 28, 2025, and today being April 28, 2025, we’re looking at actual election day polling, which is generally more accurate than forecasts months in advance.
Key factors affecting the race:
1. Donald Trump’s tariff threats have apparently boosted Liberal support
2. Mark Carney (Liberal leader) has made policy shifts to appeal to conservative voters
3. Polling suggests minimal undecided voters (only 5%)
4. Alberta’s 37 seats are mentioned as potentially crucial
## Uncertainty Analysis
Considering polling errors and potential late shifts:
1. Canadian polling has historically had a margin of error of ±3-4%
2. Last-minute shifts are possible but unlikely to dramatically change outcomes given the small undecided voter pool
3. Seat projections have inherent uncertainty due to first-past-the-post system
## Probability Distribution Assessment
Combining these factors, I’ll assess probabilities for each range:
**Less than 130 seats**: Recent projections place Conservatives at 124-136 seats. Given the consistency of these projections, there’s a moderate probability they could fall below 130, especially if Liberal support strengthens on election day or if polling errors overestimated Conservative support.
**Between 130 and 171 seats**: This is clearly the most likely outcome based on all available data. The consensus of projections falls within this range, and given the regional disadvantages facing Conservatives, they’re unlikely to exceed 171 seats.
**Between 172 and 205 seats**: This would require a substantial polling error or dramatic last-minute shift. Given the consistent polling showing Liberals ahead, plus the regional disadvantages, this outcome has low probability.
**Between 206 and 240 seats**: This would require an unprecedented polling error and dramatic shift in voter sentiment. This is extremely unlikely given the current data.
**More than 240 seats**: This would require not just a polling error but a complete failure of all polling methodologies and political fundamentals. In a parliament of 343 seats, this would mean Conservatives winning over 70% of all seats despite polling at only 38-40%.
## Final Probability Distribution
Given the consistency of projections placing Conservatives between 124-136 seats, with some possibility of variation due to polling error and last-minute shifts, I assign these probabilities:
Option_A: 28
Option_B: 69
Option_C: 3
Option_D: 0
Option_E: 0
probability_yes_per_category: {‘less than 130’: 0.27450980392156865, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.676470588235294, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.029411764705882353, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.00980392156862745, ‘more than 240’: 0.009803921568627562}
________________________
Anthropic response:
# Analysis of Conservative Party Seat Projections in Canada’s 2025 Election
## Current Political Landscape Assessment
The Conservative Party needs 172 seats to form a majority government in Canada’s 338-seat House of Commons. Based on the research provided, the party held approximately 120 seats before the dissolution of parliament for the 2025 election. This means they would need to gain at least 52 additional seats to reach the majority threshold.
Multiple recent polls from April 2025 indicate that the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, is trailing the Liberal Party under Mark Carney’s leadership. These polls show Liberals at approximately 42-43% popular support versus 38-40% for the Conservatives. This gap, while not enormous, is significant when translated into seat projections due to Canada’s first-past-the-post electoral system and regional voting patterns.
## Key Seat Projection Analyses
The most detailed seat projections from the research assistants come from multiple sources including 338Canada (a respected Canadian polling aggregator), CBC polling, and other major polling firms. These projections consistently show the Conservative Party falling short of the 172-seat threshold:
1. CBC poll average: Conservatives projected at 136 seats
2. 338Canada: Conservatives projected at 124-125 seats
3. Business Standard: References only an 11% chance of Conservative victory
4. Kiwiblog: Reports 338Canada projection of 124 Conservative seats
These projections are remarkably consistent, placing the Conservatives in the 124-136 seat range, which falls within the “between 130 and 171” category.
## Critical Electoral Factors
Several factors are contributing to the Conservative Party’s projected seat range:
1. **Regional Distribution**: The Conservatives dominate the Prairie provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba), but these regions have fewer seats compared to Ontario and Quebec. The Liberals are leading in Ontario and Quebec, which together account for over 60% of parliamentary seats.
2. **Vote Efficiency**: Multiple sources note that Liberal support is more efficiently distributed across urban and suburban ridings, particularly in the Greater Toronto Area and Montreal, allowing them to convert similar vote percentages into more seats than the Conservatives.
3. **Trump Factor**: Several sources indicate that Donald Trump’s tariff threats and interference in Canadian politics have significantly impacted the race, boosting Liberal support by approximately 5-10 percentage points since January 2025. This has particularly hurt Conservative prospects in Ontario, where trade issues are critically important.
4. **Leadership Dynamics**: Mark Carney’s economic credentials and abolishment of the unpopular carbon tax appear to have neutralized some traditional Conservative policy advantages.
## Probability Assessment
Based on all available data, the distribution of possible outcomes should primarily focus on the “between 130 and 171” range, with some probability assigned to “less than 130” given the consistent projections in the 124-136 range and the possibility of further erosion of Conservative support.
The probability of the Conservatives winning 172 or more seats appears extremely low based on current polling. Almost all sources indicate the Liberals are strongly favored to win the most seats, with most projecting them to secure a majority government.
The probability of the Conservatives winning 206+ seats is effectively negligible given current polling data. Such an outcome would require a massive polling error far outside the historical norm for Canadian elections.
## Uncertainty Factors
Given that the election is scheduled for April 28, 2025, and today’s date is listed as April 28, 2025, we are essentially looking at an election happening today. This means there is minimal time for significant shifts in voter intention. The research assistants note that turnout patterns in Ontario’s suburban ridings and Quebec’s Bloc Québécois performance could shift outcomes marginally, but not enough to fundamentally alter the projected seat ranges.
With polls showing only 5% of voters remain undecided, major last-minute shifts appear unlikely.
## Final Probability Distribution
Considering all factors, including the consistency of projections in the 124-136 seat range, the electoral math of Canada’s system, and the very limited time for changes before the election, I arrive at the following distribution:
Option_A: 15
Option_B: 82
Option_C: 3
Option_D: 0
Option_E: 0
probability_yes_per_category: {‘less than 130’: 0.14705882352941177, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.8039215686274509, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.029411764705882353, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.00980392156862745, ‘more than 240’: 0.009803921568627562}
________________________
Anthropic response:
# Canadian Conservative Party Seat Projection Analysis
## Current Political Landscape Assessment
Looking at the multiple research inputs provided, I need to carefully analyze what we know about the upcoming Canadian parliamentary election scheduled for April 28, 2025.
First, I note there’s some conflicting information in the research sources. Research Assistant 1 indicates the Conservatives had 120 seats before the election, while Research Assistant 2 cites various polling projections showing them at 124-136 seats in current projections. Research Assistant 3 gives a wider range of 107-140 seats. This variance reflects the uncertainty in polling and projection models.
The consistent element across all sources is that the Conservatives are trailing the Liberals in national polling by approximately 3-5 percentage points. The Liberals under Mark Carney are polling at 42-43%, while the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre are at 38-40%.
## Key Electoral Dynamics
Several critical factors emerge from the research:
1. **Regional Distribution**: The Conservatives have strong support in Alberta and the Prairies but struggle in seat-rich Ontario and Quebec, where the Liberals are dominant. This creates an inefficient vote-to-seat conversion for the Conservatives.
2. **Trump Factor**: Donald Trump’s tariff threats and interference in Canadian politics have apparently shifted the race, strengthening Liberal support and creating a nationalism effect that benefits the incumbent government.
3. **Seat Thresholds**: The 172-seat threshold for a majority is significant, as it determines whether a party can govern alone or needs to form a coalition.
4. **Polling Consistency**: Multiple polling organizations (Nanos, Ipsos, 338Canada) show similar trends, increasing confidence in the general direction of the projections.
## Seat Projection Analysis
The most detailed seat projections come from:
– CBC poll average: Liberals 172, Conservatives 136
– Business Standard: Liberals 189, Conservatives implied to be well below 172
– 338Canada: Liberals 187, Conservatives 125
– Kiwiblog (citing 338Canada): Conservatives 124 (up from 120)
These projections consistently place the Conservatives in the 124-136 seat range, firmly within the “between 130 and 171” category. The consistency across multiple sources increases confidence in this range.
The probability of the Conservatives winning less than 130 seats exists but appears relatively low based on the projections. Most sources place them above the 130-seat threshold, though some uncertainty remains given the dynamics of first-past-the-post electoral systems.
The probability of the Conservatives winning more than 171 seats (the three higher categories) appears extremely low. Multiple sources indicate they have only an 11% chance of winning the most seats overall, let alone securing a majority of 172+.
## Uncertainty Factors
Several elements contribute to uncertainty:
1. **Polling Error**: Canadian polls have historically shown error margins of 2-3 percentage points.
2. **Late Shifts**: While most sources indicate only 5% of voters remain undecided, late momentum shifts can occur.
3. **Regional Effects**: Local issues in specific ridings could cause deviations from national trends.
4. **Vote Efficiency**: The geographic concentration of support can lead to surprising seat counts even with similar vote percentages.
## Probability Distribution
Considering all these factors, I assess the probabilities as follows:
– **Less than 130 seats**: There’s a meaningful but minority chance the Conservatives perform below projections, particularly if Liberal support continues to consolidate or if turnout patterns favor the Liberals. The multiple projections showing them in the 124-136 range suggest some possibility of falling below 130.
– **Between 130 and 171 seats**: This is clearly the most likely outcome based on all available evidence. The consistent projections from multiple sources place the Conservatives squarely in this range.
– **Between 172 and 205 seats**: This would require a significant polling error or last-minute shift not captured in recent polling. While not impossible, this outcome appears highly unlikely given the consistent Liberal lead and regional dynamics.
– **Between 206 and 240 seats**: This would represent a massive polling error and would be unprecedented given current projections. The probability is extremely low.
– **More than 240 seats**: This would require not only an unprecedented polling error but also a fundamental restructuring of Canadian politics given the multi-party system. This outcome has virtually no probability.
Based on this analysis, my probability distribution is:
Option_A: 22
Option_B: 76
Option_C: 2
Option_D: 0
Option_E: 0
probability_yes_per_category: {‘less than 130’: 0.21568627450980393, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.7450980392156863, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.0196078431372549, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.00980392156862745, ‘more than 240’: 0.00980392156862745}
________________________
Anthropic response:
# Analysis of Conservative Party Seat Projections in Canada’s 2025 Election
## Current Political Context
To analyze this forecasting question accurately, I need to first establish the current political landscape. Based on the research materials, Canada is holding a federal election on April 28, 2025. The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, is facing off against Mark Carney’s Liberal Party, with several smaller parties also contesting seats.
The pre-election seat distribution showed:
– Liberals: >150 seats
– Conservatives: 120 seats
– Bloc Québécois: 33 seats
– NDP: 24 seats
– Greens: 2 seats
Canada’s Parliament has 343 total seats, with 172 seats needed for a majority government.
## Polling Data and Seat Projections
Multiple polling sources from April 2025 show consistent patterns:
1. **National Support**: The Liberals are polling at 42-43%, while Conservatives trail at 38-40% (Global News, Pulse24, Milenio).
2. **Regional Breakdown**: Conservatives show strength in the Prairies (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba) but face weaker support in the more populous regions of Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia, which collectively contain the majority of parliamentary seats.
3. **Seat Efficiency**: Liberal support is more efficiently distributed across electoral districts, particularly in urban areas, converting similar vote percentages into more seats than the Conservatives.
4. **Specific Projections**: Several models (338Canada, CBC poll tracker) project Conservative seats in the 124-136 range, with a consensus estimate around 125-130 seats.
## External Factors Affecting the Race
1. **Trump Factor**: Donald Trump’s tariff threats and intervention in Canadian politics appear to have boosted Liberal support by 5-10 points since January 2025, creating headwinds for the Conservatives.
2. **Regional Dynamics**: Alberta’s 37 seats are considered reliably Conservative, but Ontario’s 122 seats and Quebec’s substantial representation favor the Liberals in current polling.
3. **Economic Issues**: The Liberals abolished the unpopular carbon tax, potentially neutralizing a traditional Conservative strength, while positioning themselves as economically credible during uncertain international conditions.
## Uncertainty Considerations
Several factors could introduce uncertainty into these projections:
1. **Polling Error**: Canadian election polling has historically shown errors of ±2-3%, which could shift seat totals by 10-15 seats in either direction.
2. **Vote Efficiency**: Small shifts in key battleground ridings could produce disproportionate seat changes.
3. **Turnout Factors**: Differential turnout among demographic groups could benefit either party.
4. **Late Movement**: While the election is imminent (taking place the same day as the forecast date), last-minute shifts are still possible but would likely be modest.
## Historical Context and Base Rates
The Conservative Party has fluctuated between 99 and 166 seats in the past five federal elections, with an average of approximately 121 seats. Their highest recent performance was 167 seats in 2011 under Stephen Harper. The current polling environment shows similarities to the 2019 and 2021 elections where they won 121 and 119 seats respectively.
## Synthesis and Range Probability Assessment
Synthesizing all available data, I can now assess the probabilities of each range:
**Less than 130 seats**: There’s significant probability mass here given the polling averages and seat projections. Multiple credible projections place the Conservatives below this threshold, with numbers like 124-125 appearing in several forecasts. The regional distribution of Conservative support (concentrated in Alberta/Prairies) suggests inefficient vote-to-seat conversion.
**Between 130 and 171 seats**: This range encompasses the higher end of current projections (136) and allows for polling error or last-minute shifts. It reflects a scenario where Conservatives outperform current polling slightly but still fall short of a majority. This represents the most likely range based on available evidence.
**Between 172 and 205 seats**: This would require significant polling error or a dramatic last-minute shift. While not impossible, it would mean overcoming substantial deficits in Ontario and Quebec. Given the consistency of polling and proximity to election day, this scenario has low probability.
**Between 206 and 240 seats**: This outcome would represent a landslide Conservative victory far beyond current projections and would require massive polling error across multiple firms. Historical precedent for such polling misses in Canada is extremely limited.
**More than 240 seats**: This outcome is virtually impossible given the structural limitations of Canada’s electoral system and the Conservative Party’s regional support patterns. No major party has achieved such dominance in modern Canadian politics.
## Final Probability Distribution
Option_A: 42
Option_B: 55
Option_C: 3
Option_D: 0
Option_E: 0
probability_yes_per_category: {‘less than 130’: 0.4117647058823529, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.5392156862745099, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.029411764705882353, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.00980392156862745, ‘more than 240’: 0.00980392156862745}
GPT Multiple Choice JSON response:
For this election the Conservatives enter voting day with only 120 of the 343 seats dissolved, and all reputable public-domain poll aggregators (CBC, 338Canada, Ipsos/Nanos) give them roughly 38-40 % of the popular vote, four to five points behind the Liberals. Because their vote is heavily concentrated in the Prairies and rural Alberta/Saskatchewan—areas they already sweep—additional gains there translate into few extra ridings, while they remain clearly behind in seat-rich Ontario, Québec and B.C. Under Canada’s first-past-the-post system that vote/seat inefficiency sharply limits their ceiling.
• Current seat-projection models (CBC Poll Tracker, 338Canada, LeanTossup) cluster around 120-140 CPC seats, with only low-single-digit probabilities of even winning the most seats and <5 % probability of crossing the 172-seat majority line.
• Historic precedent is similar: in 2021 the CPC won 35 % of the vote and 119/338 seats; a 3-4 pt popular-vote improvement distributed comparably would translate to roughly 10–15 extra seats.
• Surprise swings after ballots are cast are impossible; the result is now locked in and only small post-election judicial recount shifts are possible.
• For the Conservatives to reach 206+ seats they would have to net roughly every competitive riding in the country including dozens of suburban GTA and francophone Québec seats where they currently trail by 5–15 pts—an outcome well outside any observed polling error in modern Canadian elections.
Combining these data with a modest allowance for polling error and late-breaking turnout surprises yields the following subjective probability distribution:
Option ‘less than 130’ 48 %
Option ‘130–171’ 44 %
Option ‘172–205’ 6 %
Option ‘206–240’ 2 %
Option ‘more than 240’ 0 %
Option_A: 48
Option_B: 44
Option_C: 6
Option_D: 2
Option_E: 0
probability_yes_per_category: {‘less than 130’: 0.4752475247524752, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.43564356435643564, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.0594059405940594, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.019801980198019802, ‘more than 240’: 0.009900990099009901}
GPT Multiple Choice JSON response:
The public-polling picture on election day is unusually clear. National aggregates from CBC, 338Canada, Nanos, Ipsos, Léger and Abacus all show the Conservatives trailing the Liberals by roughly 3-5 pp (≈42 % – 43 % LPC vs 38 % – 40 % CPC). Canada’s first-past-the-post geography makes that gap hard to overcome: Conservative votes are heavily concentrated in the Prairies while the Liberals have more “efficient” support in Ontario, Québec and the Lower Mainland of B.C. Seat-projection models that convert today’s polling to ridings—CBC Poll Tracker, 338Canada, Éric Grenier’s model—cluster tightly around 125-140 Conservative seats, giving them about an 8-12 % chance of finishing first and only a low-single-digit chance of reaching the 172-seat majority line.
Historical precedents reinforce this. Since 2000, Canadian parties have needed a popular-vote lead of roughly 5-6 pp plus favourable regional swings to secure >170 seats. The Conservatives are 3-5 pp behind, not ahead. To get to 172+ they would require a late polling error at the very edge of modern Canadian experience (≈4 pp miss in the right regions) and an unusually efficient vote split with the Bloc and NDP—possible but rare.
Down-side risk (<130 seats) still exists. If turnout dips in the Conservative base or if Liberal support in the 905 belt and Atlantic Canada is understated, the CPC could lose a handful of ridings and end up near or even below their current 120-seat pre-dissolution mark. Poll-error distributions and past elections put that risk in the one-third range.
Upside tail events above 206 seats would require a polling error of 8–10 pp plus near-perfect vote distribution—well beyond anything seen in recent federal elections—so only token probability is warranted.
Factoring these elements—current polling, seat-conversion mathematics, historical polling error, regional vote efficiency, and the short time remaining before results are certified—I arrive at the following probability distribution:
Option_A (less than 130): 35
Option_B (between 130 and 171): 55
Option_C (between 172 and 205): 7
Option_D (between 206 and 240): 2
Option_E (more than 240): 1
probability_yes_per_category: {‘less than 130’: 0.35, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.55, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.07, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.02, ‘more than 240’: 0.01}
Task failed with error: 403 PERMISSION_DENIED. {‘error’: {‘code’: 403, ‘message’: ‘This API method requires billing to be enabled. Please enable billing on project #forecasting-433205 by visiting https://console.developers.google.com/billing/enable?project=forecasting-433205 then retry. If you enabled billing for this project recently, wait a few minutes for the action to propagate to our systems and retry.’, ‘status’: ‘PERMISSION_DENIED’, ‘details’: [{‘@type’: ‘type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.ErrorInfo’, ‘reason’: ‘BILLING_DISABLED’, ‘domain’: ‘googleapis.com’, ‘metadata’: {‘service’: ‘aiplatform.googleapis.com’, ‘consumer’: ‘projects/forecasting-433205’, ‘containerInfo’: ‘forecasting-433205’}}, {‘@type’: ‘type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.LocalizedMessage’, ‘locale’: ‘en-US’, ‘message’: ‘This API method requires billing to be enabled. Please enable billing on project #forecasting-433205 by visiting https://console.developers.google.com/billing/enable?project=forecasting-433205 then retry. If you enabled billing for this project recently, wait a few minutes for the action to propagate to our systems and retry.’}, {‘@type’: ‘type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help’, ‘links’: [{‘description’: ‘Google developers console billing’, ‘url’: ‘https://console.developers.google.com/billing/enable?project=forecasting-433205’}]}]}}
Traceback (most recent call last):
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 107, in fetch_gemini_multiple_choice_prediction
return await fetch_sync(get_gemini_multiple_choice_prediction, title, perplexity_summary_report, asknews_summary, asknews_deep_research, vision_analysis, today, resolution_date, background, fine_print, resolution_criteria, options)
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 61, in fetch_sync
return await asyncio.get_event_loop().run_in_executor(
File “/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.10.17/x64/lib/python3.10/concurrent/futures/thread.py”, line 58, in run
result = self.fn(*self.args, **self.kwargs)
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 57, in run_sync
return future.result(timeout=45)
File “/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.10.17/x64/lib/python3.10/concurrent/futures/_base.py”, line 458, in result
return self.__get_result()
File “/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.10.17/x64/lib/python3.10/concurrent/futures/_base.py”, line 403, in __get_result
raise self._exception
File “/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.10.17/x64/lib/python3.10/concurrent/futures/thread.py”, line 58, in run
result = self.fn(*self.args, **self.kwargs)
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/gemini_service_2.py”, line 84, in get_gemini_multiple_choice_prediction
response = client.models.generate_content(
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/.venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/google/genai/models.py”, line 4672, in generate_content
response = self._generate_content(
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/.venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/google/genai/models.py”, line 3831, in _generate_content
response_dict = self._api_client.request(
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/.venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/google/genai/_api_client.py”, line 455, in request
response = self._request(http_request, stream=False)
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/.venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/google/genai/_api_client.py”, line 385, in _request
errors.APIError.raise_for_response(response)
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/.venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/google/genai/errors.py”, line 100, in raise_for_response
raise ClientError(status_code, response)
google.genai.errors.ClientError: 403 PERMISSION_DENIED. {‘error’: {‘code’: 403, ‘message’: ‘This API method requires billing to be enabled. Please enable billing on project #forecasting-433205 by visiting https://console.developers.google.com/billing/enable?project=forecasting-433205 then retry. If you enabled billing for this project recently, wait a few minutes for the action to propagate to our systems and retry.’, ‘status’: ‘PERMISSION_DENIED’, ‘details’: [{‘@type’: ‘type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.ErrorInfo’, ‘reason’: ‘BILLING_DISABLED’, ‘domain’: ‘googleapis.com’, ‘metadata’: {‘service’: ‘aiplatform.googleapis.com’, ‘consumer’: ‘projects/forecasting-433205’, ‘containerInfo’: ‘forecasting-433205’}}, {‘@type’: ‘type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.LocalizedMessage’, ‘locale’: ‘en-US’, ‘message’: ‘This API method requires billing to be enabled. Please enable billing on project #forecasting-433205 by visiting https://console.developers.google.com/billing/enable?project=forecasting-433205 then retry. If you enabled billing for this project recently, wait a few minutes for the action to propagate to our systems and retry.’}, {‘@type’: ‘type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help’, ‘links’: [{‘description’: ‘Google developers console billing’, ‘url’: ‘https://console.developers.google.com/billing/enable?project=forecasting-433205’}]}]}}
All predictions:
[{‘less than 130’: 0.4752475247524752, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.43564356435643564, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.0594059405940594, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.019801980198019802, ‘more than 240’: 0.009900990099009901}, {‘less than 130’: 0.4411764705882353, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.5196078431372549, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.0196078431372549, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.00980392156862745, ‘more than 240’: 0.00980392156862745}, {‘less than 130’: 0.4117647058823529, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.5392156862745099, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.029411764705882353, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.00980392156862745, ‘more than 240’: 0.00980392156862745}, {‘less than 130’: 0.35, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.55, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.07, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.02, ‘more than 240’: 0.01}, {‘less than 130’: 0.57, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.35, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.06, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.01, ‘more than 240’: 0.01}, {‘less than 130’: 0.27450980392156865, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.676470588235294, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.029411764705882353, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.00980392156862745, ‘more than 240’: 0.009803921568627562}, {‘less than 130’: 0.21568627450980393, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.7450980392156863, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.0196078431372549, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.00980392156862745, ‘more than 240’: 0.00980392156862745}, {‘less than 130’: 0.14705882352941177, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.8039215686274509, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.029411764705882353, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.00980392156862745, ‘more than 240’: 0.009803921568627562}]
Filtered predictions:
[{‘less than 130’: 0.4117647058823529, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.5392156862745099, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.029411764705882353, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.00980392156862745, ‘more than 240’: 0.00980392156862745}, {‘less than 130’: 0.35, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.55, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.07, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.02, ‘more than 240’: 0.01}, {‘less than 130’: 0.57, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.35, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.06, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.01, ‘more than 240’: 0.01}, {‘less than 130’: 0.27450980392156865, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.676470588235294, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.029411764705882353, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.00980392156862745, ‘more than 240’: 0.009803921568627562}]
Averaged predictions:
{‘less than 130’: 0.4752475247524752, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.43564356435643564, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.0594059405940594, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.019801980198019802, ‘more than 240’: 0.009900990099009901}
Median reasoning:
All Predictions:
[{‘less than 130’: 0.4752475247524752, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.43564356435643564, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.0594059405940594, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.019801980198019802, ‘more than 240’: 0.009900990099009901}, {‘less than 130’: 0.4411764705882353, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.5196078431372549, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.0196078431372549, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.00980392156862745, ‘more than 240’: 0.00980392156862745}, {‘less than 130’: 0.4117647058823529, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.5392156862745099, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.029411764705882353, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.00980392156862745, ‘more than 240’: 0.00980392156862745}, {‘less than 130’: 0.35, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.55, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.07, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.02, ‘more than 240’: 0.01}, {‘less than 130’: 0.57, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.35, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.06, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.01, ‘more than 240’: 0.01}, {‘less than 130’: 0.27450980392156865, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.676470588235294, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.029411764705882353, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.00980392156862745, ‘more than 240’: 0.009803921568627562}, {‘less than 130’: 0.21568627450980393, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.7450980392156863, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.0196078431372549, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.00980392156862745, ‘more than 240’: 0.00980392156862745}, {‘less than 130’: 0.14705882352941177, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.8039215686274509, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.029411764705882353, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.00980392156862745, ‘more than 240’: 0.009803921568627562}]
Median Reasoning:
EXTRACTED_PROBABILITIES: [57, 35, 6, 1, 1]
Model’s Answer:
Polling over the final week (CBC/Nanos/Ipsos averages) shows the Conservatives trailing the Liberals by roughly 3-5 pts nationally (≈38-40 % vs 42-43 %). 338Canada and other seat-modelers translate that gap into just 125-140 Conservative seats because:
• Vote efficiency: Liberal support is concentrated in seat-rich urban Ontario/Québec; Conservative votes pile up in already-safe Prairie ridings.
• Regional ceilings: Even an Alberta/Saskatchewan sweep only yields 50-odd seats; gains elsewhere are constrained by the Bloc in Québec and resurgent Liberals/NDP in Ontario & B.C.
• Momentum & turnout: Late-campaign issues (Trump tariff threats, Liberals scrapping the carbon tax) modestly helped the Liberals, shrinking the Conservatives’ path to pickups.
• History: Since 1988 no Canadian party has leapt from a 120-seat opposition to a 172-seat majority in a single election without leading the polls decisively—something the Conservatives clearly are not doing.
With 172 seats needed for a majority and virtually every reputable model giving them <10 % chance of even winning the most seats, a majority (172-205) is possible but very unlikely; anything above 205 borders on fantasy. Most probability mass therefore sits below 171, with a tilt toward the <130 bucket because a modest Liberal vote-share lead typically costs the Conservatives seats in Ontario/Atlantic Canada.
Option probabilities:
Option_A (<130): 57
Option_B (130-171): 35
Option_C (172-205): 6
Option_D (206-240): 1
Option_E (>240): 1
=== Forecast Result ===
{
“probability_yes”: null,
“probability_yes_per_category”: {
“less than 130”: 0.4015686274509803,
“between 130 and 171”: 0.528921568627451,
“between 172 and 205”: 0.04720588235294118,
“between 206 and 240”: 0.012401960784313725,
“more than 240”: 0.009901960784313754
},
“continuous_cdf”: null
}
=== Reasoning ===
All Predictions:
[{‘less than 130’: 0.4752475247524752, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.43564356435643564, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.0594059405940594, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.019801980198019802, ‘more than 240’: 0.009900990099009901}, {‘less than 130’: 0.4411764705882353, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.5196078431372549, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.0196078431372549, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.00980392156862745, ‘more than 240’: 0.00980392156862745}, {‘less than 130’: 0.4117647058823529, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.5392156862745099, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.029411764705882353, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.00980392156862745, ‘more than 240’: 0.00980392156862745}, {‘less than 130’: 0.35, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.55, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.07, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.02, ‘more than 240’: 0.01}, {‘less than 130’: 0.57, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.35, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.06, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.01, ‘more than 240’: 0.01}, {‘less than 130’: 0.27450980392156865, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.676470588235294, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.029411764705882353, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.00980392156862745, ‘more than 240’: 0.009803921568627562}, {‘less than 130’: 0.21568627450980393, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.7450980392156863, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.0196078431372549, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.00980392156862745, ‘more than 240’: 0.00980392156862745}, {‘less than 130’: 0.14705882352941177, ‘between 130 and 171’: 0.8039215686274509, ‘between 172 and 205’: 0.029411764705882353, ‘between 206 and 240’: 0.00980392156862745, ‘more than 240’: 0.009803921568627562}]
Median Reasoning:
EXTRACTED_PROBABILITIES: [57, 35, 6, 1, 1]
Model’s Answer:
Polling over the final week (CBC/Nanos/Ipsos averages) shows the Conservatives trailing the Liberals by roughly 3-5 pts nationally (≈38-40 % vs 42-43 %). 338Canada and other seat-modelers translate that gap into just 125-140 Conservative seats because:
• Vote efficiency: Liberal support is concentrated in seat-rich urban Ontario/Québec; Conservative votes pile up in already-safe Prairie ridings.
• Regional ceilings: Even an Alberta/Saskatchewan sweep only yields 50-odd seats; gains elsewhere are constrained by the Bloc in Québec and resurgent Liberals/NDP in Ontario & B.C.
• Momentum & turnout: Late-campaign issues (Trump tariff threats, Liberals scrapping the carbon tax) modestly helped the Liberals, shrinking the Conservatives’ path to pickups.
• History: Since 1988 no Canadian party has leapt from a 120-seat opposition to a 172-seat majority in a single election without leading the polls decisively—something the Conservatives clearly are not doing.
With 172 seats needed for a majority and virtually every reputable model giving them <10 % chance of even winning the most seats, a majority (172-205) is possible but very unlikely; anything above 205 borders on fantasy. Most probability mass therefore sits below 171, with a tilt toward the <130 bucket because a modest Liberal vote-share lead typically costs the Conservatives seats in Ontario/Atlantic Canada.
Model value:
* less than 130: 57 %
* between 130 and 171): 35%
* between 172 and 205: 6%
* between 206 and 240: 1%
* over 240): 1%
Past forecasts by both Phil and Jeremy on Sudan’s conflict fatalities —>
Background on VIEWS: Near the end of 2024, the latest forecasting competition of the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was launched. On Dec. 4, 2024, during a telecon, a group of machine forecasting experts involved in VIEWS observed Jeremy’s demonstration of his Multi-AI Oracle. Although it was too late for Jeremy to sign up as a VIEWS competitor, they urged him to run a side competition for everyone’s benefit. Jeremy chose their Sudan conflict deaths question.
Below, map of control in Sudan’s civil war as of April 15, 2025.
Below, before and after pictures of the devastation of the civil war in Sudan.
Carolyn has checked Sudan’s news sites below to ensure that they are still in operation. However, given the widespread violence in Sudan, any of these could go offline without warning.
https://www.alnilin.com/
https://www.alrakoba.net/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/ar/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/en/
https://www.alttahrer.com/
https://www.alzaeemsd.com/
https://www.assayha.net
https://www.cover-sd.com/
https://kushnews.net/
https://rakobanews.com
https://www.sudanakhbar.com/
https://sudanjem.com/
https://suna-sd.net/en
https://sudantimes.net/
https://www.sudantribune.net/
https://www.sudantribune.com/
https://sudaneseonline.com/
https://www.sudanile.com/
https://sudanow-magazine.net/
https://www.sudaress.com/
https://www.tagpress.net/
