What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 15%, down from 35% yesterday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews: Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “US Steel Nippon Steel merger” from reliable sources
1. **Title:** Rejecting the US Steel sale to Nippon Steel will mark the end of an era in US capitalism
**URL:** [forexlive.com]https://forexlive.com
**Summary:** US President Joe Biden is expected to reject a $14.9 billion takeover of US Steel by Nippon Steel, citing national security concerns. Experts argue that the decision is driven by crony-capitalism and corruption, rather than genuine concern for national security. The deal would have brought significant investments and job creation to the US, but opposition remains strong.
2. **Title:** As we look ahead to 2025, a moment to reflect on mining milestones from 2024
**URL:** [wdio.com](https://wdio.com)
**Summary:** As 2024 comes to a close, the mining industry reflects on its major milestones, including the proposed merger between U.S. Steel and Nippon, which was approved by shareholders in April. The U.S. Army Corp of Engineers agreed to open the Soo Locks earlier than normal, and President Biden visited Pittsburgh, emphasizing that U.S. Steel should remain a totally American company.
3. **Title:** USA Redefining Capitalism By Blocking Nippon Steel Takeover Of US Steel
**URL:** [ipanewspack.com]https://ipanewspack.com
**Summary:** The US government is blocking the takeover of US Steel by Nippon Steel, citing national security concerns. This marks a departure from the US’s usual stance of allowing foreign companies to acquire US firms. Experts argue that Nippon Steel’s takeover could revitalize US Steel, making it one of the best steelmakers in the country.
4. **Title:** President Biden given fifteen days to decide whether Nippon Steel of Japan acquiring U.S. Steel works for the company
**URL:** [beavercountyradio.com]https://beavercountyradio.com
**Summary:** Nippon Steel has been given 15 days by President Joe Biden to decide whether to acquire U.S. Steel. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States has approved the analysis of the acquisition, which is expected to close around the opening quarter of 2025.
5. **Title:** Time line: U.S. Steel’s long journey toward Nippon Steel
**URL:** [bizjournals.com]https://bizjournals.com
**Summary:** Nippon Steel’s $55-a-share cash bid for United States Steel Corp. was announced on Dec. 18, 2023, but has faced opposition from the United Steelworkers union and a bipartisan group of critics. Despite efforts from Nippon Steel to save the deal, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States review has been extended until Dec. 31, with President Biden expressing opposition to the sale.
6. **Title:** Nippon Steel’s US Steel Acquisition Plan Receives Support from Local Communities
**URL:** [3yonnews.com]https://3yonnews.com
**Summary:** Tadashi Imai, president of Nippon Steel, stated that the company sees support for its proposal to buy US Steel in areas where steel mills are located. The US Committee on Foreign Investment has referred the $15 billion deal to President Biden, who has 15 days to make a decision. Local officials have expressed support for the acquisition.
7. **Title:** Biden to kill Nippon Steel’s $15B takeover of US Steel on national security grounds: report
**URL:** [nypost.com](https://nypost.com)
**Summary:** President Biden plans to block Nippon Steel’s proposed $15 billion takeover of US Steel on national security grounds. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States must refer its decision to Biden by Dec. 22 or 23. If Biden decides to block the merger, the two companies may pursue litigation.
8. **Title:** Trump vows to block US Steel sale to Nippon Steel
**URL:** [manager-magazin.de]https://manager-magazin.de
**Summary:** US President-elect Donald Trump announced that he will block the sale of US Steel to Nippon Steel, citing national security interests. Trump has a history of protectionist economic policies and has threatened new tariffs against US trade partners, emphasizing that he aims to keep US Steel domestically owned and operated.
*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 31, 2024 12:59 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “The newsfeed presents a series of reports about the controversial proposed merger between U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel, with a focus on expected governmental opposition. President Biden and President-elect Trump are both presented as intending to block the $15 billion merger on national security grounds, reflecting ongoing protectionist sentiments within the U.S. government. Despite some support from local communities and potential economic benefits, voices in opposition contend the takeover would undermine national security and U.S. industrial independence. While the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States is involved in reviewing the acquisition, the potential for litigation exists if the merger is blocked. The situation remains fluid, with mixed opinions on the implications for U.S. capitalism and foreign investment policies.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here’s a list of specific facts from the summary:
1. **Fact: The proposed merger between U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel is valued at $15 billion.**
– **Correctness:** True. The summary consistently refers to this value.
– **Relevance to the Outcome:** True. The value of the merger is relevant as it influences the scale and potential economic impact, factors that could affect the probability of the merger’s approval or announcement.
2. **Fact: President Biden and President-elect Trump intend to block the merger on national security grounds.**
– **Correctness:** False. Only one person can be President or President-elect at a given time. There is an inconsistency here unless this is a hypothetical or future scenario with Trump becoming President again. [Hallucination warning: False! In the U.S. the president elect, if different from the President, true in this case, does not take office until Jan. 20 of the following year.]
– **Relevance to the Outcome:** True. Opposition from high-level leaders like the President can significantly influence the approval process and the timing of any announcement.
3. **Fact: There is ongoing protectionist sentiment within the U.S. government regarding the merger.**
– **Correctness:** True. The narrative reflects protectionist concerns which are consistent with recent U.S. political trends.
– **Relevance to the Outcome:** True. Protectionist sentiments can impact governmental opposition and regulatory reviews, affecting the likelihood of the merger being announced.
4. **Fact: Local communities provide some support for the merger due to potential economic benefits.**
– **Correctness:** True. The summary states there is some local support based on economic benefits.
– **Relevance to the Outcome:** True. Local support can influence political decision-making and potentially help facilitate the merger.
5. **Fact: Opponents argue that the merger would undermine national security and U.S. industrial independence.**
– **Correctness:** True. The summary presents this as an argument from the opposition.
– **Relevance to the Outcome:** True. These arguments are central to the controversy and could significantly impact the decision to approve or block the merger.
6. **Fact: The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is involved in the review of the merger.**
– **Correctness:** True. CFIUS is mentioned as reviewing the acquisition, which is consistent with its role in assessing national security implications of foreign investments.
– **Relevance to the Outcome:** True. CFIUS’s involvement is crucial to the approval process, affecting whether the merger will be announced.
7. **Fact: There is a potential for litigation if the merger is blocked.**
– **Correctness:** True. The summary states this potential exists, which is reasonable in high-impact mergers.
– **Relevance to the Outcome:** True. Litigation could delay the process, affecting the timing of the merger’s announcement.
8. **Fact: There are mixed opinions on the implications for U.S. capitalism and foreign investment policies.**
– **Correctness:** True. The summary notes differing views on these broader implications.
– **Relevance to the Outcome:** True. Divergent opinions reflect the complexity and debate surrounding the merger, influencing its chances of proceeding.
In examining these facts, all are relevant to determining the probability of the merger’s announcement by the specified date, except for the incorrect fact about the leadership situation. [Hallucination warning]
Fact-checked summary: The proposed merger between U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel is valued at $15 billion, a significant factor as it influences the scale and potential economic impact, which could affect the probability of the merger’s approval or announcement before January 21, 2025. Ongoing protectionist sentiment within the U.S. government is relevant, as it can impact governmental opposition and regulatory reviews. Local communities provide some support for the merger due to potential economic benefits, which can influence political decision-making and potentially facilitate the merger. Critics argue that the merger would undermine national security and U.S. industrial independence, concerns central to the controversy that could impact the merger’s approval. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is involved in reviewing the merger, a critical part of the approval process. There is also potential for litigation if the merger is blocked, which could delay the announcement process. Finally, mixed opinions on the implications for U.S. capitalism and foreign investment policies reflect the complexity of the situation, influencing the merger’s chances of proceeding.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.25
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate: The base rate is influenced by the complexities surrounding international mergers, historical precedence of similar mergers being assessed and approved within the US, and factors such as regulatory and political hurdles. Given the mix of local community support and potential economic benefits juxtaposed with strong protectionist sentiment and national security concerns, the base rate reflects a moderate likelihood of the merger being finalized or announced before the given date. The involvement of regulatory bodies like CFIUS, which historically can prolong review processes, and the impact of litigation, further temper expectations for completion within the timeframe.
Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate: Any shifts in the political climate towards less protectionist policies, an expedited review by CFIUS, or an unexpected lack of significant antitrust opposition could increase the likelihood significantly. Conversely, heightened concerns over national security, increased protectionist rhetoric, or emergent legal hindrances could decrease the likelihood further, potentially delaying the announcement until well beyond the deadline.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel reach a final agreement on the terms of the merger. (Very likely)
– Approval of the merger by the U.S. Department of Justice or Federal Trade Commission, considering antitrust implications. (Unlikely)
– Approval by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), considering national security concerns. (Unlikely)
– Support and lack of significant opposition from U.S. political stakeholders and local communities. (Somewhat likely)
– Avoidance or successful navigation through potential litigation that might delay the announcement. (Somewhat likely)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.15
Base rate: 0.25 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.07
Reverse Mellers: 0.24
Theory of Mind: 0.3 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.001
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 0.15
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel faces significant regulatory challenges, primarily due to antitrust and national security concerns that are unlikely to receive swift approval from authorities such as the U.S. Department of Justice, the Federal Trade Commission, and CFIUS. The presence of a strong protectionist sentiment and national security worries further complicate the process, making it improbable that the merger will be finalized before the January 21, 2025 deadline. Although local community support and potential economic benefits are positive factors, they are outweighed by the complexity and expected duration of regulatory reviews. However, there is a possibility that expedited regulatory processes, shifts in political sentiment, or breakthroughs in addressing key concerns could lead to an earlier announcement.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 75%, up from 65% yesterday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews. Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “dock workers strike” from reliable sources:
1. **Title:** Transportation unions face key dates that could mean strikes in 2025
**URL:** [nj.com](https://nj.com)
**Summary:** Major transportation unions, including flight attendants at United Airlines, dockworkers on East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, and locomotive engineers who operate NJ Transit commuter trains, are engaged in contentious contract talks. The International Longshoreman’s Association (ILA) and the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen are the closest to potential strike dates in 2025, which could come to a head in January.
2. **Title:** US sees surging worker strikes in 2024
**URL:** [socialnews.xyz]https://socialnews.xyz
**Summary:** The United States has seen a surge in worker strikes in 2024, with 334 labor actions across 515 locations as of Friday, according to the Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations’s Labor Action Tracker. Among these, dockworkers are preparing for potential strikes in 2025 due to ongoing disputes over wages and working conditions.
3. **Title:** From Amazon warehouse to port strikes, shippers and the DOT are preparing for an unpredictable 2025
**URL:** [nbcdfw.com](https://nbcdfw.com)
**Summary:** The logistics industry is bracing for another year of disruption in 2025, with supply chain strikes and labor battles poised to cause trade shocks. A potential strike by dock workers at 36 ports could bring East and Gulf Coast ports to a standstill. The Department of Transportation is monitoring the situation closely as it prepares for possible disruptions.
4. **Title:** Trump sides with dockworkers preparing to strike over automation
**URL:** [biztoc.com](https://biztoc.com)
**Summary:** President-elect Donald Trump has expressed his support for dock workers who are preparing to strike over automation. The strike, which is set to begin in mid-January 2025, could bring commercial shipping on the East and Gulf Coasts to a halt just before Trump takes office.
*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 31, 2024 12:59 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “Recent reports indicate that dockworkers on the East and Gulf Coasts are preparing for potential strikes in early 2025 due to ongoing disputes over wages, working conditions, and automation, which may significantly disrupt shipping and trade. The International Longshoreman’s Association is among the major transportation unions embroiled in contentious contract negotiations, with potential strike actions anticipated in January. These developments are part of a broader trend of increased labor actions across the United States, with a notable rise in worker strikes throughout 2024. As the logistics industry braces for disruption, the Department of Transportation is closely monitoring the situation. In a related political development, President-elect Donald Trump has expressed support for the dockworkers’ stance against automation, with implications for commercial shipping operations.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, along with an evaluation of their correctness and relevance to the outcome:
1. *Fact: Dockworkers on the East and Gulf Coasts are preparing for potential strikes in early 2025 due to disputes over wages, working conditions, and automation.*
– Correctness: True (assuming this is accurately reported in the recent reports mentioned).
– Relevance: True (directly relevant to the probability of a strike in Q1 2025).
2. *Fact: The International Longshoreman’s Association is among the unions involved in contentious contract negotiations.*
– Correctness: True (the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) is a major union for dockworkers and is likely involved in such negotiations).
– Relevance: True (the ILA’s involvement directly affects the likelihood of strike actions).
3. *Fact: Potential strike actions are anticipated in January.*
– Correctness: True (if recent reports anticipate strikes in January 2025).
– Relevance: True (timing of potential strikes is relevant to the Q1 2025 period).
4. *Fact: There is a broader trend of increased labor actions across the United States, with a rise in strikes in 2024.*
– Correctness: True (there has been a general increase in labor actions in the U.S. during the period mentioned).
– Relevance: True (general trends in labor actions can influence the probability of strikes in specific sectors).
5. *Fact: The Department of Transportation is monitoring the situation.*
– Correctness: True (it is standard for the Department of Transportation to monitor situations affecting major transportation sectors).
– Relevance: False (while monitoring by the department is part of normal procedures, it does not directly affect the likelihood of a strike).
6. *Fact: President-elect Donald Trump has expressed support for the dockworkers’ stance against automation.*
– Correctness: False (Donald Trump is not the President-elect as of the data known up to October 2023; Joe Biden is the current president, and the next U.S. presidential election is in November 2024). [Warning: Out of date information]
– Relevance: False (even if the fact were correct, any political expression of support does not directly impact the probability of immediate strike actions).
7. *Fact: These developments have implications for commercial shipping operations.*
– Correctness: True (strikes would likely disrupt shipping operations).
– Relevance: True (disruptions in shipping operations relate to the impact of potential strikes).
The relevant and potentially incorrect statements have been identified, and the overall context suggests a high probability of strikes due to ongoing disputes with the ILA being a key player.
Fact-checked summary: Dockworkers on the East and Gulf Coasts are preparing for potential strikes in early 2025 due to ongoing disputes over wages, working conditions, and automation. The International Longshoremen’s Association is among the unions engaged in contentious contract negotiations, which is significant given their influence on labor actions in this sector. Recent reports also anticipate potential strike actions as early as January 2025, directly affecting the probability of strikes occurring in the first quarter of the year. Additionally, there has been a broader trend of increased labor actions across the United States, evidenced by a rise in strikes in 2024, which may further influence the likelihood of strikes in the dockworking industry. These developments hold critical implications for commercial shipping operations, as any strike actions could disrupt the flow of goods and impact the industry broadly.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.65
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate: The base rate of 0.65 reflects the similar outcomes in labor negotiations where contentious negotiations have often led to strikes. Given that there is already a precedent of increased labor actions and the current contract disputes are unresolved, it increases the likelihood of a strike occurring. The historical context of 2024, with a significant rise in strikes, also contributes to this elevated probability.
Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate: External factors such as potential economic downturns, legislative interventions, or unexpected resolutions in negotiations could reduce the likelihood of strikes. Additionally, if employers offer a concession or an unexpected third-party mediation occurs, the resolution could differ from the projected base rate.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
Continued lack of agreement in contract negotiations highly likely – Increased solidarity and pressure within the union for taking strike action likely – Escalation of disputes over wages, working conditions, and automation without resolution likely
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.75 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.75 – confidence: 7)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.7 – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.75
Base rate: 0.65 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.02
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.83
Reverse Mellers: 0.67
Theory of Mind: 0.6 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.001
Close Type: C (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value): 0.75
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The reasoning across the AI-generated lists indicates a high probability of a strike in Q1 2025, largely driven by unresolved contract issues, particularly concerning automation. The scheduled negotiations on January 15, 2025, and the historical context of increased labor actions in 2024 reinforce this likelihood. Additional factors include union pressures, industry-wide labor tension, and influences from key organizations like the International Longshoremen’s Association. However, several mitigating factors could reduce this probability: recent successes in salary negotiations could foster compromise, government interventions may occur due to the economic significance of ports, port operators might make concessions, and potential economic pressures could dissuade union members from striking. Legislative actions or successful mediations might also avert a strike despite the strong union momentum.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today,
* less than 172: 15%
* between 172 and 205:.40%
* between 206 and 240: 35%
* more than 240: 10%
Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews. Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “Conservative Party Canada election” from reliable sources:
1. **Title:** Conservatives say they will move motion of non-confidence in Liberal Government
**URL:** [voiceonline.com]https://voiceonline.com
**Summary:** The Conservative Party announced that they will move a motion of non-confidence in the Liberal Government on January 7, with the goal of forcing an election. The motion is supported by the Bloc Quebecois and the NDP, who represent a majority of MPs. The Conservative Party stated that the Liberal Government has lost the confidence of Parliament and that Canadians need an election now. The party noted that the NDP Leader, Jagmeet Singh, has previously voted confidence in the Liberal Government eight times but has now announced that he will vote non-confidence in the Liberal Government.
2. **Title:** Conservatives to Attempt to Oust Trudeau for Fourth Time
**URL:** [rcinet.ca](https://rcinet.ca)
**Summary:** The Conservative Party of Canada, led by Pierre Poilievre, will attempt to oust Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for the fourth time. According to a press release from the Conservative Party, Trudeau has ‘lost all control’ and is ‘desperately clinging to power.’ The Public Accounts Committee will meet on January 7 to examine the new motion of no-confidence against Trudeau’s Liberal government. If the motion is adopted, the committee’s report will be presented to Parliament on January 27, and the motion can be put to a vote in the House of Commons starting on January 30.
3. **Title:** Justin Trudeau May Not Lead Liberals in 2025 Election, Says Former Advisor
**URL:** [journaldemontreal.com]https://journaldemontreal.com
**Summary:** Gerald Butts, a former principal advisor to Justin Trudeau, believes it is unlikely that the Canadian Prime Minister will lead the Liberal Party in the next election in 2025. According to Butts, the reason for this potential departure is the resignation of Trudeau’s Deputy Prime Minister, Chrystia Freeland, on December 16, following disagreements with the Prime Minister on the direction of the Canadian government. The Liberal government must call general elections by the end of 2025, but they could take place earlier if the Prime Minister decides to do so or if a vote of no confidence is supported by a majority.
4. **Title:** Most readers say they will vote for this party in Canada’s next election
**URL:** [insauga.com]https://journaldemontreal.com
**Summary:** A recent poll by INsauga.com found that 70.34% of readers plan to vote for the Conservative Party in Canada’s next election, followed by the Liberals at 14.37% and the NDP at 7.19%. In a separate poll, 85.7% of readers believe the Justin Trudeau Liberals will not win the next election. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has stated that his party would vote non-confidence in the governing Liberals during the next sitting of the House of Commons.
*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 31, 2024 01:00 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Recent reports suggest that the Conservative Party of Canada plans to introduce a motion of non-confidence against the Liberal Government, aiming to prompt an election. This move is reportedly supported by the Bloc Quebecois and the NDP, indicating a significant parliamentary challenge for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Additionally, a former advisor to Trudeau suggests he may not lead the Liberals in the 2025 election, especially following the recent resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland amid internal government disagreements. In parallel, a local poll indicates a strong preference for the Conservatives in a future election, with a substantial portion of respondents expressing skepticism about the Liberals’ chances of victory. It should be noted that these reports include a mix of verified news and potentially speculative claims.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts derived from the summary, along with their truth status and relevance to the outcome:
1. **Fact**: The Conservative Party of Canada plans to introduce a motion of non-confidence against the Liberal Government.
– **True/False**: This is potentially speculative since current plans for such motions are often not publicly confirmed until shortly before they occur.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. A successful motion of non-confidence could lead to an election, indirectly affecting the Conservative Party’s seat count if elections occur.
2. **Fact**: The motion of non-confidence is supported by the Bloc Quebecois and the NDP.
– **True/False**: This claim would need verification as it depends on the political context at the time, including the positions of the Bloc Quebecois and NDP, which can change.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. Support from other parties increases the likelihood of the motion’s success, potentially triggering an election.
3. **Fact**: There is a significant parliamentary challenge for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
– **True/False**: True, if considering the support from other parties for a non-confidence motion. However, “significant challenge” is somewhat subjective and context-dependent.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. Political challenges impacting Trudeau could lead to changes in government or influence election dynamics.
4. **Fact**: A former advisor to Trudeau suggests he may not lead the Liberals in the 2025 election.
– **True/False**: This is speculative unless statements from a specific advisor are verified. Timeframe also important as future plans are subject to change.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: False. Trudeau’s potential leadership status in 2025 does not directly relate to the Conservative seat count now.
5. **Fact**: There has been a recent resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland amid internal government disagreements.
– **True/False**: False. There are no verifiable reports of Freeland’s resignation as of the latest data.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: False. Even if true, her resignation would not directly predict Conservative seat wins.
6. **Fact**: A local poll indicates a strong preference for the Conservatives in a future election.
– **True/False**: Probably true if considering various polls showing fluctuating support, but specific polls need verification.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. Poll preferences can be indicative of potential election results hence potentially predicting seat outcomes.
7. **Fact**: A substantial portion of respondents express skepticism about the Liberals’ chances of victory.
– **True/False**: Potentially true if supported by specific poll data; however, this needs verification as perceptions vary.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. Public skepticism can affect voter turnout and behavior, impacting electoral results.
Overall, several claims are speculative or subjective, and their potential impact on the Conservative Party’s seat count in an election is indirect, focusing on the larger political and public opinion environment.
Fact-checked summary: The upcoming federal election in Canada could be influenced by several factors that may affect the Conservative Party’s chances of winning seats. There is a recognized parliamentary challenge for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, particularly if other parties support a motion of non-confidence, which could lead to an election and impact the political landscape. Additionally, local polls suggest strong public preference for the Conservatives, and there exists public skepticism regarding the Liberals’ chances of victory. These factors together could potentially influence voter behavior and electoral outcomes in favor of the Conservative Party.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.35, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.1, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.4, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.15, “between 172 and 205”: 0.3, “between 206 and 240”: 0.35, “more than 240”: 0.2] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 0.15
* between 172 and 205: 0.4
* between 206 and 240: 0.35
* more than 240: 0.1
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The AIs generally agree that the Conservative Party is likely to gain seats in an upcoming Canadian election, driven by strong current polling signals. However, several factors generate uncertainty about the extent of their gains, such as historical voting patterns which favor moderation, potential bias in polls, and possible shifts in public opinion due to unforeseen events or effective strategies by opposing parties like the Liberals. While predictions suggest the Conservatives could secure between 172 to 240 seats, surpassing 240 is seen as unlikely given the political landscape. External factors like a non-confidence motion could catalyze an election, possibly to the Conservatives’ advantage; however, regional voting trends and the dynamics of the campaign could significantly influence the final outcome.
Runtime for the three forecastin questions on this page: 172 seconds
Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
