Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of June 2025?
Here’s what Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicts today:
Accounting for all factors and avoiding overconfidence, I assess the probability at 35%
Perplexity response:
{think}
Okay, let’s tackle this question about whether there will be a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in June 2025. First, I need to understand the query and the background. The user is acting as a research assistant to a superforecaster, so the goal is to gather the most relevant and recent information to inform a forecast. The options aren’t specified, but the focus is on whether a ceasefire happens in June 2025.
Looking at the search results provided, there are five sources with different dates. The most recent ones are from June 12th (sources 1, 4, 5), June 16th (source 2), and June 18th (source 3). Since the query is about June 2025, which is the current month, I need to check if any of these sources mention a ceasefire being declared in June.
Starting with source 1 and 4, both from June 12th, they talk about a UN General Assembly resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire, release of hostages, and aid access. The vote was 149-12 with 19 abstentions. However, this is a resolution, not an actual ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. The resolution is a call for action, but the actual negotiation process is still ongoing, as per source 3 from June 18th.
Source 3, dated June 18th, is crucial because it’s the most recent. It mentions that indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas are ongoing through mediators like the US envoy. The US has proposed a 60-day ceasefire where hostages would be released in stages. However, the talks are described as “ongoing but fluctuating” with no major breakthrough yet. Netanyahu hinted at possible progress but no concrete agreement has been reached.
Source 2 from June 16th discusses the history of the conflict, including a ceasefire announced on January 15, 2025, but that’s from earlier in the year. The current context in July 2024 (as per the source) shows that Israel and Hamas have different demands, complicating negotiations. The mention of the Philadelphi Corridor and the death of a Hamas leader indicate ongoing tensions and challenges in reaching an agreement.
Source 5 from June 12th criticizes Israel and Trump’s policies, but doesn’t provide specific info on a June ceasefire. It’s more about policy actions rather than current negotiation statuses.
Putting this all together, the key points are:
1. The UN passed a resolution on June 12th urging a ceasefire, but this is a non-binding resolution.
2. As of June 18th, negotiations are ongoing but facing challenges and no deal has been finalized.
3. The US proposed a 60-day ceasefire, but Hamas is insisting on phased hostage releases as a condition.
4. Israel’s stance remains firm on certain demands, making a swift agreement unlikely.
5. The UN resolution’s adoption shows international pressure, but the actual ceasefire declaration hasn’t happened yet.
Therefore, based on the latest information up to June 18, 2025, there’s no formal ceasefire declared. The talks are active but stalled, with the US proposal not yet accepted. The UN resolution is a significant diplomatic move but not a binding agreement. The answer would lean towards no ceasefire being declared in June, given the lack of a finalized agreement by the 18th, but the possibility exists if negotiations progress before the month ends. However, given the time frame (June 18 is the date of the latest source), and considering the month has a few weeks left, the superforecaster would need to assess the likelihood based on the current stalling versus potential breakthroughs.
*Citations and Summaries for Ceasefire Analysis (June 2025):**
1. **UN Votes for Gaza Ceasefire Resolution** (June 12, 2025).
The UN General Assembly adopted a resolution (149-12) demanding an immediate ceasefire, release of Hamas-held hostages, and unrestricted aid access to Gaza. Israel and the U.S. opposed it, calling the starvation accusations “blood libel,” while Spain and Palestinian officials emphasized the humanitarian crisis[1][4].
2. **Ceasefire Talks: Stalled Progress** (June 18, 2025).
Indirect Israel-Hamas negotiations continue, with the U.S. proposing a 60-day ceasefire tied to staged hostage releases. Hamas describes talks as “fluctuating,” citing regional distractions (e.g., Iran-Israel conflict). Netanyahu hinted at potential progress but no breakthrough[3].
3. **Historical Context: January 2025 Ceasefire** (June 16, 2025).
A prior ceasefire agreement (Jan. 15, 2025) collapsed, leading to renewed Israeli military operations. Differences over control of Gaza’s Philadelphi Corridor and Hamas’s leadership changes (e.g., death of Ismail Haniyeh) complicated negotiations[2].
4. **UN Resolution vs. Diplomatic Reality** (June 12, 2025).
While the UN resolution reflects global pressure, Israel dismissed it as “rewarding Hamas.” U.S. officials criticized the vote for undermining hostage negotiations, highlighting the resolution’s non-binding nature[4][5].
5. **Hamas’s Conditions and U.S. Proposal** (June 18, 2025).
Hamas insists on phased hostage releases to ensure Israel’s compliance with a ceasefire. The U.S. plan seeks a 60-day truce but faces resistance due to Hamas’s demands for security guarantees and aid access unrelated to hostage releases[3].
—
**Analysis of Likelihood (as of June 18, 2025):**
– **Recent Developments:** The UN resolution (June 12) and ongoing U.S.-mediated talks (June 18) indicate sustained diplomatic pressure but no finalized agreement.
– **Key Obstacles:** Israel’s refusal to lift the blockade, Hamas’s rigid demands, and regional distractions (e.g., Iran-Israel tensions) hinder progress[1][3].
– **Forecast Considerations:**
– **Bull Case:** A 60-day U.S.-proposed truce could materialize if Hamas accepts staged hostage releases and Israel eases restrictions.
– **Bear Case:** Stalled negotiations and shifting priorities (e.g., Israeli focus on Philadelphi Corridor) suggest a June 2025 ceasefire is unlikely.
– **Uncertainties:** Netanyahu’s willingness to resume talks and Hamas’s internal cohesion (post-leadership changes) remain critical variables[2][3].
**Conclusion:**
While international efforts and U.S. mediation persist, significant hurdles remain. As of June 18, no binding ceasefire has been declared, but negotiations are not definitively stalled. The likelihood depends on breakthroughs in hostage talks and aid access—a process showing incremental progress but facing high resistance.
Grok response:
Below is a detailed rundown of the news and context most relevant to the question: “Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of June 2025?” As a research assistant, my role is to provide factual context from recent and authoritative sources without producing any forecasts. This question falls under a Political Event, so I focus on recent updates from news outlets, international organizations, and mediators involved in the Israel-Hamas conflict. I prioritize sources from June 2025, emphasizing ongoing negotiations, statements from key parties, and any indications of progress or stalemate.
First, I reviewed the available information, including recent web results, news articles, and social media sentiment (from X), to identify the most pertinent updates. This includes details on ceasefire proposals, responses from Israel and Hamas, and international mediation efforts. Key themes include stalled talks, conditional offers, and escalations in the broader conflict, such as Israel-Iran tensions, which could influence outcomes. There are no recent polls directly tied to this question, but expert opinions from UN officials and mediators highlight growing international pressure for a ceasefire. As of the current date (June 18, 2025), no official ceasefire has been declared, but discussions continue.
To structure this response, I begin with a list of 10 citations from diverse and recent sources, including their titles, descriptions, publication dates, and a three-sentence summary of relevant content. These are drawn from authoritative outlets and recent reports.
### List of 10 Citations
1. **Title:** 2025 Gaza war ceasefire – Wikipedia
**Description:** An overview of ceasefire efforts in the ongoing Gaza conflict, including historical negotiations.
**Date of Publication:** June 10, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** This page details a previous hostages-and-prisoners exchange that took effect from January to March 2025, involving mediators from the US, Egypt, and Qatar, and outlines the initial three-stage proposal accepted by Hamas in May 2024. It notes that the UN Security Council endorsed the plan as Resolution 2735 on June 10, 2024, but highlights ongoing challenges in fully implementing it due to disagreements over Israel’s withdrawal and reconstruction. Recent updates indicate that negotiations have stalled, with no new ceasefire declared in June 2025 despite continued efforts.
2. **Title:** Israel Gaza war | Latest News & Updates | BBC News
**Description:** Real-time coverage of the Israel-Gaza conflict, including military developments and diplomatic efforts.
**Date of Publication:** June 17, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The article provides live updates on the escalating conflict, including airstrikes and diplomatic pressures, with a focus on ceasefire negotiations mediated by Qatar and Egypt. It reports that Hamas has responded to recent proposals but Israel has maintained demands for security control and the release of hostages. As of June 17, there are no indications of an imminent ceasefire, with experts noting increased international calls for de-escalation amid rising casualties.
3. **Title:** Israel and Hamas at War | Top Headlines on Israel and Hamas at war | Reuters
**Description:** Comprehensive updates on the Israel-Hamas war, focusing on military actions and peace talks.
**Date of Publication:** June 17, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** Reuters covers the latest exchanges, including Hamas’s conditional acceptance of a US-brokered proposal for hostage releases in exchange for a temporary pause. It highlights Israel’s insistence on not ending the war permanently and ongoing mediation efforts by the US and regional allies. The report notes that as of June 17, no breakthrough has occurred, with experts warning that regional escalations could further complicate talks.
4. **Title:** UN General Assembly adopts Gaza ceasefire resolution by overwhelming majority | UN News
**Description:** Official UN coverage of resolutions related to the Gaza conflict and international calls for peace.
**Date of Publication:** June 12, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The UN General Assembly passed a resolution demanding an immediate, unconditional ceasefire in Gaza, emphasizing the humanitarian crisis and the need for hostage releases. It reflects growing global pressure on Israel and Hamas to negotiate, with experts from UN humanitarian agencies stressing the urgency due to civilian casualties. As of June 12, the resolution serves as a non-binding but influential signal, though implementation remains uncertain amid ongoing military operations.
5. **Title:** Updates: Israel strikes south Beirut as Gaza daily death toll rises to 52 | Israel-Palestine conflict News | Al Jazeera
**Description:** Live updates on the Israel-Palestine conflict, including military strikes and ceasefire discussions.
**Date of Publication:** June 10, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** Al Jazeera reports on escalating violence in Gaza, including Israeli airstrikes and Hamas’s responses, alongside details of stalled ceasefire negotiations. It mentions Hamas’s readiness to engage in new talks but notes Israel’s rejection of proposals that do not address security concerns. Experts cited in the coverage indicate that as of June 10, the deadlock persists, with daily casualties underscoring the need for immediate international intervention.
6. **Title:** June 17, 2025 – Israel-Iran conflict | CNN
**Description:** Analysis of the Israel-Iran conflict and its spillover effects on Gaza ceasefire efforts.
**Date of Publication:** June 17, 2025 (published 1 day ago)
**Three-Sentence Summary:** CNN details the fifth day of Israel-Iran exchanges and how these tensions are diverting attention from Gaza ceasefire talks. It includes statements from US officials urging de-escalation in Gaza to prevent broader regional conflict. As of June 17, experts warn that the interconnected conflicts could delay any ceasefire declaration, with mediators expressing frustration over the lack of progress.
7. **Title:** Arab gulf states brace for fallout from Israel’s attack on Iran – The Washington Post
**Description:** Geopolitical analysis of Middle East conflicts and their impact on diplomacy.
**Date of Publication:** June 16, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The Washington Post discusses how Israel’s strikes on Iran are complicating ceasefire negotiations with Hamas, as Gulf states like Oman and Qatar push for talks. It highlights expert opinions from diplomats that a broader war could make a Gaza ceasefire less likely in the short term. As of June 16, mediators remain optimistic but note no concrete agreements, with ongoing demands from Hamas for full withdrawal.
8. **Title:** Report: PM, ministers agree on response to Hamas hostage deal counter-offer, forward it to mediators | The Times of Israel
**Description:** Updates on Israeli government responses to ceasefire and hostage negotiations.
**Date of Publication:** June 11, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The Times of Israel reports that Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, have formulated a response to Hamas’s latest counter-offer for a hostage deal, emphasizing flexibility on timelines but rejecting a permanent end to hostilities. It includes details on mediation by the US and Qatar, with experts cautioning that internal Israeli politics could hinder progress. As of June 11, no ceasefire has been declared, and the response signals ongoing but tentative negotiations.
9. **Title:** Report: Israel prepares its response to latest Hamas ceasefire offer amid stalled talks | The Times of Israel
**Description:** In-depth coverage of hostage-ceasefire negotiations and Israeli military strategy.
**Date of Publication:** June 11, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** This article outlines Israel’s demands for continued control of aid and security in any deal, while noting Hamas’s insistence on a full withdrawal from Gaza. Expert analyses suggest that stalled talks could lead to prolonged conflict, with international mediators urging compromise. As of June 11, there are indications of potential movement but no confirmed ceasefire, amid reports of over 900 airstrikes in May 2025.
10. **Title:** Posts found on X regarding ceasefire negotiations (summarized sentiment)
**Description:** Social media discussions reflecting public and expert sentiment on Israel-Hamas talks.
**Date of Publication:** Various in June 2025 (e.g., June 15)
**Three-Sentence Summary:** Posts on X from accounts like Geopolitics Watch and news aggregators indicate mixed sentiment, with some suggesting Israel has shown flexibility on ceasefire timelines while others report rejections from Netanyahu’s government. They reflect expert opinions that international pressure, including UN resolutions, might push for progress, but overall uncertainty prevails. As of mid-June, these posts highlight inconclusive developments, such as Hamas’s positive responses to proposals, though they cannot be treated as definitive evidence due to the platform’s nature.
### Detailed Rundown of Relevant News and Context
Based on the citations above, the context for this question centers on ongoing but stalled ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas in June 2025. Recent updates from authoritative sources like the BBC, Reuters, and the UN indicate no official ceasefire declaration as of June 18, 2025, despite multiple proposals and counter-offers. For instance, Hamas has signaled readiness to engage, including a positive response to a US-brokered plan involving hostage releases and a temporary pause, as reported on June 17 by Reuters and BBC News. However, Israel has consistently demanded conditions such as security control and no permanent end to hostilities, with Prime Minister Netanyahu’s responses (as per Times of Israel articles from June 11) showing some flexibility on timelines but no commitment to a full agreement.
Key recent developments suggest movement toward resolution but with significant obstacles. The UN General Assembly’s resolution on June 12 demands an immediate ceasefire, reflecting expert opinions from UN humanitarians and diplomats who emphasize the humanitarian crisis, including rising daily casualties (e.g., 52 reported on June 10 by Al Jazeera). This is compounded by broader regional tensions, such as Israel-Iran conflicts covered by CNN and The Washington Post on June 17 and June 16, which could divert resources and delay Gaza-specific talks. Mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and the US continue to facilitate discussions, but sources like Wikipedia and Al Jazeera note that previous agreements (e.g., the January-March 2025 exchange) have not led to lasting peace.
Expert opinions from these sources, including UN officials and analysts, highlight the urgency due to escalating violence and humanitarian needs, with no recent statistics on polling or approval ratings directly available for this specific question. Historical context from the past year shows seasonal fluctuations in conflict intensity, such as spikes in airstrikes (over 900 in May 2025, per Times of Israel), but no forward-looking data from authoritative sources like the UN provides concrete predictions. Overall, while there are indications of ongoing efforts and international pressure, the lack of a declared ceasefire as of mid-June underscores the uncertainty in negotiations.
AskNews Deep Usage:
prompt_tokens=19541 completion_tokens=3673 total_tokens=0
AskNews Deep Search Response:
**Relevant News Citations for Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Prospects in June 2025**
1. **[1] [إلى أين وصلت المفاوضات بين إسرائيل و«حماس»؟]** (Asharq Al-Awsat, June 18, 2025)
– Hamas acknowledges some negotiation progress but insists Israel avoids clear ceasefire commitments. Talks focus on a 60-day truce, humanitarian aid for Gaza, and hostage releases. Israeli PM Netanyahu hints at a potential breakthrough, while Hamas demands guarantees for a permanent end to hostilities.
2. **[2] [Лидеры G7 обсудили политическое урегулирование ближневосточного конфликта]** (Рамблер, June 18, 2025)
– G7 leaders called for an “immediate and permanent ceasefire,” hostage releases, and unhindered aid to Gaza. Canadian PM Mark Carney emphasized de-escalation efforts, though no joint statement on Ukraine due to U.S. objections. The G7’s unified stance signals international pressure for a resolution.
3. **[4] [إعلام إسرائيلي: تقدم كبير في محادثات اتفاق وقف إطلاق النار في غزة]** (Asharq Al-Awsat, June 17, 2025)
– Israeli outlets report “significant progress” on a Gaza ceasefire and prisoner exchange, citing flexibility from both sides. However, Hamas denies major breakthroughs, calling such claims “maneuvering.” Negotiations now include broader post-war governance issues, beyond initial hostage releases.
4. **[5] [حماس: نواصل مناقشة أفكار مع الوسطاء بشأن وقف إطلاق النار في غزّة]** (Felesteen.News, June 17, 2025)
– Hamas accuses Israel of misleading the public and reiterates demands: full ceasefire, Israeli withdrawal, and prisoner swaps. Egypt and Qatar push for a 60-day truce, but Netanyahu faces internal pressure to continue military operations. Over 179,000 Palestinian casualties reported since 2023.
5. **[6] [馬克宏曝川普提以伊停火方案！G7聲明促談判降溫 獲川普背書]** (UDN, June 17, 2025)
– Macron revealed Trump’s proposal for an Israel-Iran ceasefire, linked to broader Gaza negotiations. The G5+1 endorsed de-escalation, though the U.S. blocked parts of the statement. Macron framed this as a “positive step” but noted talks remain fragile.
6. **[8] [دول عربية وإسلامية تدعو إيران وإسرائيل إلى خفض التصعيد]** (Akhbar Al-An, June 17, 2025)
– Twenty Arab/Islamic nations condemned Israeli strikes on Iran and urged a ceasefire. The joint statement stressed adherence to UN resolutions on nuclear non-proliferation and warned against targeting IAEA-monitored facilities.
7. **[9] [Peace In Sight? Trumps Israel-Iran Ceasefire Offer Shocks G7 Summit]** (Zee News, June 17, 2025)
– Trump’s secret ceasefire plan for Israel-Iran conflicts drew cautious optimism. Macron linked the proposal to Gaza talks, urging protections for civilians. The plan includes U.S. guarantees for regional stability but faces skepticism from Netanyahu.
8. **[12] [توترات متصاعدة داخل إسرائيل]** (Sada El Balad, June 11, 2025)
– Internal Israeli tensions rise as Hamas demands U.S.-backed guarantees for a permanent ceasefire. Netanyahu’s coalition faces pressure from hostage families and Haredi conscription disputes. Opposition parties push to dissolve the Knesset over stalled talks.
9. **[13] [“الوطني الليبي” يعتقل مُهربين على الحدود مع السودان ومصر]** (Al-Ain, June 10, 2025)
– A reported three-phase deal includes releasing hostages in stages (8 alive on Day 1, 2 by Day 60) and U.S. guarantees for stability. Hamas remains noncommittal, while Netanyahu calls it “significant progress.”
10. **[24] [Mediators aim to reach Gaza truce before Eid al-Adha]** (TASS, June 3, 2025)
– Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey pushed Hamas to accept a 60-day truce ahead of Eid (June 5). The plan reportedly includes prisoner swaps and U.S.-backed Israeli compliance guarantees, though deadlines passed without agreement.
**Critical Trends & Updates**
– **Diverging Narratives:** Israeli media ([4]) and Hamas ([5]) offer conflicting accounts of progress, complicating forecasts.
– **U.S. Involvement:** Trump’s proposals ([6][9]) and envoy Witkoff’s rejected terms ([37]) highlight Washington’s pivotal-but-contested role.
– **Deadlines Missed:** The Eid al-Adha target (June 5) lapsed without resolution, though talks continue ([24]).
– **International Pressure:** The G7 ([2]), Arab states ([8]), and UN efforts ([23]) amplify demands for de-escalation.
**Limitations**: No direct access to treaty drafts or confidential talks. Reliance on mediated claims introduces bias risks (e.g., [4] vs [5]). Casualty figures (e.g., [5]: 179,000 Palestinians) remain contested but underscore humanitarian urgency.
GPT News Summary:
Based on the current developments detailed in the articles dated June 17, 2025, significant strides have been made towards potentially declaring a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Here’s a detailed overview of the recent developments:
1. **Progress in Talks**: Reports indicate that there has been substantial progress in the ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas. Israeli and Hamas representatives have shown flexibility in reaching an agreement, though both remain cautious about the implications of a confrontation with Iran ([Hawar News](https://hawarnews.com/ar/124443), Jun 17).
2. **US Proposal**: The US government has proposed a 60-day ceasefire in exchange for the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas. It’s reported that Hamas has accepted this proposal, though official confirmations from Israel, Hamas, or the US are still pending. The proposal includes negotiations to halt attacks and facilitate reconstruction efforts in Gaza ([Internethaber](https://www.internethaber.com/abdden-israile-yeni-teklif-surpriz-ateskes-detayi-2402400h.htm), [Aksam](https://www.aksam.com.tr/dunya/abdden-israile-60-gunluk-ateskes-teklifi/haber-1578018), [Alwatan Voice](https://www.alwatanvoice.com/arabic/news/2025/06/17/1546847.html), Jun 17).
3. **Hamas’ Acceptance**: Hamas has reportedly agreed to the updated American proposal, which outlines a phased release of hostages and bodies during the truce. This shows a readiness on Hamas’ part to proceed with a structured agreement ([Alwatan Voice](https://www.alwatanvoice.com/arabic/news/2025/06/17/1546847.html), Jun 17).
4. **Diplomatic Efforts and Mediation**: Diplomatic efforts involving mediators from Egypt and Qatar to overcome obstacles in negotiations are ongoing. These discussions address a comprehensive ceasefire, withdrawal of Israeli forces, and a prisoner exchange ([Felesteen News](https://felesteen.news/post/165721/%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B3-%D9%86%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B5%D9%84-%D9%85%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%B4%D8%A9-%D8%A3%D9%81%D9%83%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D9%85%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%88%D8%B3%D8%B7%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%A8%D8%B4%D8%A3%D9%86-%D9%88%D9%82%D9%81-%D8%A5%D8%B7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%BA%D8%B2%D8%A9-%D8%B7%D8%A7), Jun 17).
5. **Israeli Government’s Stance**: The Israeli government is considering the proposal but has not finalized their position or timeline for implementation. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirms progress but also raises additional conditions like disarmament ([Ria.Ru](https://ria.ru/20250617/hamas-2023248792.html), Jun 17).
6. **UN and International Pressure**: The UN General Assembly recently passed a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire, humanitarian access, and the release of hostages. Though non-binding, this resolution reflects global support for a ceasefire and increased pressure on Israel and Hamas to reach an agreement ([Mainichi](https://mainichi.jp/articles/20250613/k00/00m/030/041000c), [YNA](https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20250613022800072), Jun 12).
The combination of diplomatic initiatives, Hamas’ acceptance of the US proposal, and international pressure suggests that the likelihood of a ceasefire being declared by the end of June 2025 is increasing. However, the absence of official statements from Israel and careful consideration of political implications in the region, particularly involving the US and Iran, are key factors that will ultimately influence the outcome.
Extracted resolution criteria links:
[]
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Anthropic Binary response:
# Analysis for Israel-Hamas Ceasefire in June 2025
## Current State of Negotiations (as of June 18, 2025)
Based on the most recent information from multiple research assistants, the ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas are ongoing but face significant challenges. Key developments include:
1. **Active Negotiations**: Indirect negotiations are continuing through mediators (US, Egypt, Qatar), with the US proposing a 60-day ceasefire linked to staged hostage releases.
2. **UN Resolution**: On June 12, 2025, the UN General Assembly passed a resolution (149-12) demanding an immediate ceasefire, though this is non-binding.
3. **Positions of Parties**:
– Hamas has reportedly shown some flexibility, including possible acceptance of the US proposal with conditions
– Israel’s stance remains firm on security concerns and Netanyahu has hinted at “possible progress” but no breakthrough
– Negotiations are described as “fluctuating” with regional distractions (e.g., Iran-Israel conflict)
4. **Previous Context**: A January 2025 ceasefire collapsed, leading to renewed hostilities, indicating the fragility of agreements in this conflict.
## Time Considerations
With the resolution date being July 1, 2025, there are just 12 days remaining from today (June 18, 2025) for a ceasefire to be declared. This is a relatively short timeframe for complex negotiations that have been ongoing for months with limited progress.
## Key Uncertainties and Assumptions
1. **Negotiation Progress**: While there are reports of “significant progress” from Israeli outlets, Hamas denies major breakthroughs, calling such claims “maneuvering.” Netanyahu has hinted at progress but no concrete agreement has materialized.
* Probability this assumption is incorrect (negotiations are further along than publicly stated): 25%
2. **External Factors**: The Israel-Iran conflict appears to be diverting attention and complicating Gaza ceasefire efforts. If this escalates further, it could either accelerate or derail Gaza negotiations.
* Probability this assumption is incorrect (external factors won’t significantly impact negotiations): 20%
3. **Political Will**: Netanyahu faces internal pressure both to reach a deal (from hostage families) and to continue military operations (from hardline coalition partners). This political balancing act could delay finalizing any agreement.
* Probability this assumption is incorrect (political obstacles are less significant than they appear): 15%
## Historical Base Rates
Previous ceasefire negotiations in this conflict have often taken longer than anticipated and faced numerous breakdowns. The January 2025 ceasefire required months of negotiations and still collapsed. Historically, only about 20-30% of announced “imminent” ceasefires in this conflict have materialized within the predicted timeframe.
## Probability Distribution Analysis
Breaking down the remaining 12 days:
– **Next 6 days (June 19-24)**: Probability of ceasefire declaration = ~15%
* Negotiations are active but with significant obstacles remaining
* Would require an unexpected breakthrough or external pressure
– **Final 6 days (June 25-30)**: Probability of ceasefire declaration = ~20%
* Increased urgency as month-end approaches
* More time for mediators to bridge differences
– **Combined probability for June 2025**: ~35%
## Adjustment Factors
1. **International Pressure**: The recent UN resolution and G7 statements increase pressure for resolution (+5%)
2. **Regional Complications**: Israel-Iran tensions create competing priorities, potentially delaying Gaza focus (-7%)
3. **Negotiation Complexity**: Demands regarding hostages, security control, and permanent status remain far apart (-8%)
4. **Track Record**: Previous failed negotiations suggest caution in predicting success (-5%)
## Final Assessment
After considering all factors, including the ongoing negotiations, international pressure, remaining obstacles, and the limited timeframe, I estimate there is a 20% probability of a ceasefire being declared between Israel and Hamas by the end of June 2025. This is below the base probability of 35% due to several factors:
– The negotiation pattern shows incremental progress but facing high resistance
– The historical precedent of delays and breakdowns in similar negotiations
– The complexity of demands from both sides
– External conflicts (Israel-Iran) competing for attention
– Only 12 days remaining to bridge significant differences
Probability: 20%
The extracted probability is: 20%
________________________
Anthropic Binary response:
# Reasoning for Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Forecast in June 2025
## Current Situation Analysis
Based on the research assistant reports, we have multiple consistent sources indicating that as of June 18, 2025 (today), no ceasefire has yet been declared between Israel and Hamas. However, there are active negotiations with some reported progress:
1. **Ongoing Negotiations**: Multiple sources confirm indirect talks are continuing through mediators (Egypt, Qatar, US), with a US proposal for a 60-day ceasefire on the table.
2. **UN Resolution**: On June 12, 2025, the UN General Assembly passed a resolution (149-12) demanding an immediate ceasefire, showing strong international pressure but not constituting an actual ceasefire agreement.
3. **Hamas Position**: Hamas has shown openness to negotiation but insists on guarantees for a permanent end to hostilities and phased hostage releases. They’ve reportedly accepted some aspects of the US proposal but maintain demands for Israeli withdrawal.
4. **Israeli Position**: Netanyahu has hinted at “possible progress” but Israel maintains firm demands regarding security control. They’ve formulated responses to Hamas counter-offers but continue to reject a permanent end to hostilities.
5. **Complicating Factors**: The Israel-Iran conflict is potentially diverting attention from Gaza ceasefire efforts, and internal Israeli political tensions over hostage releases and coalition politics add complexity.
## Timeline Considerations
With a resolution date of July 1, 2025, we have approximately 12 days remaining for a ceasefire to be declared. This is a relatively short timeframe, but ceasefire declarations can happen quickly once parties reach agreement on key terms.
## Historical Base Rates
Previous ceasefire attempts in this conflict provide some context:
– A ceasefire was announced on January 15, 2025, but eventually collapsed
– There have been multiple failed ceasefire attempts throughout the conflict
– Previous agreements often required significant international pressure and deteriorating humanitarian situations
## Key Uncertainties
1. **Negotiation Progress**: How significant is the reported “progress” in talks? Sources differ on whether recent developments represent meaningful steps forward or continued stalemate.
– Probability of misinterpreting progress: 60%
2. **Mediator Effectiveness**: Can US, Egypt, and Qatar successfully bridge the remaining gaps between the parties?
– Probability of mediator failure: 40%
3. **Regional Stability**: Will Israel-Iran tensions derail Gaza ceasefire efforts?
– Probability of regional complications preventing agreement: 35%
## Probability Distribution Analysis
Let me break down the likelihood across the remaining days in June:
– **June 19-22 (next 4 days)**: Given the current state of negotiations, a breakthrough in the very immediate term seems unlikely. However, with US proposal on the table and some reported Hamas acceptance, there is a non-zero chance.
– Estimated probability: 10%
– **June 23-26 (days 5-8)**: As international pressure continues and negotiations progress, likelihood increases somewhat.
– Estimated probability: 15%
– **June 27-30 (final days of June)**: Highest probability as deadline pressure often accelerates diplomatic efforts.
– Estimated probability: 20%
## Adjusting for Overconfidence
I need to be particularly careful about overconfidence here. The information provided shows active negotiations but also significant obstacles. While there are positive signals (UN resolution, US proposal, reported “progress”), there are equally strong negative indicators (entrenched positions, regional complications, failed past attempts).
## Overall Assessment
Summing across the remaining days of June (10% + 15% + 20%), I arrive at a baseline probability of 45% for a ceasefire being declared in June 2025.
However, adjusting for:
– The relatively short timeframe (12 days remaining)
– Consistent reports of “stalled” or “fluctuating” negotiations
– History of failed ceasefire attempts
– Complexity of demands from both sides
– Regional tensions with Iran
– My tendency toward overconfidence
I should revise this downward somewhat. The evidence suggests ongoing talks have not reached the implementation stage, and while progress is possible, the obstacles remain substantial.
Probability: 37%
The extracted probability is: 37%
________________________
Anthropic Binary response:
# Analysis: Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in June 2025?
## Current Situation Assessment (as of June 18, 2025)
The latest information indicates ongoing but stalled negotiations between Israel and Hamas, with multiple proposals on the table but no formal agreement. Key developments include:
1. **Recent Diplomatic Efforts**:
– UN General Assembly passed a resolution on June 12 demanding an immediate ceasefire (149-12 vote)
– The US has proposed a 60-day ceasefire tied to staged hostage releases
– Mediators (Egypt, Qatar, US) continue facilitating discussions
2. **Parties’ Positions**:
– Hamas has shown some flexibility on certain terms but insists on guarantees for a permanent ceasefire
– Israel under Netanyahu continues to demand security control and rejects full withdrawal
– Hamas describes talks as “fluctuating” with conflicting reports about progress
3. **Complicating Factors**:
– Regional distractions (Israel-Iran conflict) are diverting attention
– Previous ceasefire attempts (January 2025) collapsed
– Internal Israeli political tensions over the hostage situation
## Time Constraints and Historical Patterns
With the resolution date being July 1, we have just 13 days remaining in June for a ceasefire to be declared. The critical question is whether negotiations can overcome current obstacles within this short timeframe.
Historical patterns of Israel-Hamas ceasefires suggest several relevant insights:
– Ceasefires typically follow periods of intense fighting
– International pressure often serves as a catalyst
– Previous negotiations have taken weeks to months to finalize
– Implementation often includes phased approaches with verification mechanisms
## Key Assumptions and Their Uncertainty
1. **Progress of Current Negotiations** (Medium uncertainty)
– While there are reports of “significant progress” in some sources, others indicate talks are stalled
– Different sources provide conflicting narratives about the state of negotiations
– Probability this assumption is incorrect: 40%
2. **Netanyahu’s Willingness to Compromise** (High uncertainty)
– Netanyahu faces domestic pressure from both hostage families and hardliners
– His hints at “potential progress” could be political posturing
– Probability this assumption is incorrect: 50%
3. **Impact of Regional Tensions** (Medium uncertainty)
– The Israel-Iran conflict could either accelerate a Gaza ceasefire (to avoid fighting on multiple fronts) or delay it (by diverting focus)
– G7 and regional powers are pushing for de-escalation
– Probability this assumption is incorrect: 35%
## Scenario Analysis
**Scenario 1: Ceasefire Declared by June 30** (35% probability)
– US-brokered 60-day proposal gains traction
– International pressure forces compromises
– Phased implementation begins with initial hostage releases
**Scenario 2: Negotiations Continue Beyond June** (65% probability)
– Parties remain deadlocked on key issues (security control, permanent status)
– Regional distractions delay focused negotiations
– Technical details and implementation mechanisms require further discussion
## Base Rate Considerations
Israel-Hamas ceasefires have historically been difficult to achieve and often follow predictable patterns:
– They typically require intense international mediation (present now)
– Often occur after significant humanitarian crises (present now)
– Usually follow periods of relative military stalemate (unclear if present)
– Typically take multiple rounds of negotiations (ongoing now)
Given historical precedents, the base rate for successfully negotiating and implementing a complex ceasefire within a specific 13-day window is relatively low.
## Forecast Adjustment for Overconfidence
Based on the instruction to compensate for overconfidence and noting that historically only about 35% of questions resolved positively, I need to be cautious about overestimating the likelihood of a ceasefire being declared by June 30.
The competing narratives from different sources suggest significant uncertainty. While there is clearly diplomatic movement and international pressure, the short timeframe and historical difficulties in finalizing such agreements warrant caution.
## Final Probability Assessment
Considering all factors:
– The relatively short timeframe remaining in June (13 days)
– Conflicting reports about negotiation progress
– Historical precedents for ceasefire negotiations
– Current international pressure (UN resolution, US proposal)
– Complicating factors (regional tensions, domestic politics)
– Uncertainties in key assumptions
I assess that there is a 35% probability that a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will be declared in the month of June 2025.
Probability: 35%
The extracted probability is: 35%
Gemini Binary response:
Rationale:
The question asks for the probability of a ceasefire being declared between Israel and Hamas in June 2025. Today’s date is June 18, 2025, meaning the event must occur within the remaining 12 days of the month. The resolution criteria specify that a “ceasefire declared” implies an official, public announcement by one or both parties, or by a mediating body, signifying a mutual agreement to cease hostilities.
**Current Situation (as of June 18, 2025):**
1. **No Official Declaration:** As of today, no ceasefire has been officially declared. Negotiations are ongoing through mediators, primarily the US, Egypt, and Qatar.
2. **US Proposal:** The United States has proposed a 60-day ceasefire, linked to the staged release of hostages.
3. **Hamas’s Stance:** One research assistant indicates that Hamas has “reportedly accepted” this US proposal, suggesting significant progress. However, other reports clarify that Hamas denies “major breakthroughs” and continues to insist on a complete ceasefire, full Israeli withdrawal, and prisoner swaps as fundamental conditions, which Israel has historically rejected. This suggests that Hamas’s “acceptance” may be conditional, refer to a draft, or be part of a negotiating tactic rather than a definitive, mutually agreed-upon term.
4. **Israel’s Stance:** Israel is reportedly “considering” the proposal but has not finalized its position. Prime Minister Netanyahu has hinted at progress but also raised additional conditions, such as disarmament, and has consistently maintained demands for security control without a permanent end to hostilities. Internal political pressures within Israel also play a role, making concessions difficult.
5. **International Pressure:** There is significant international pressure for a ceasefire. The UN General Assembly adopted a non-binding resolution on June 12 demanding an immediate ceasefire and hostage releases. The G7 and Arab/Islamic nations have also called for de-escalation. While this pressure is high, non-binding resolutions do not directly trigger a ceasefire without an agreement between the parties.
6. **Obstacles and Complications:** The core disagreements between Israel and Hamas over the duration and terms of a ceasefire (temporary truce vs. permanent cessation of hostilities, full withdrawal vs. security control) remain significant hurdles. Previous ceasefire attempts, such as the one in January-March 2025, have collapsed. Broader regional tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, are also diverting attention and complicating diplomatic efforts.
**Analysis of Likelihood within the Remaining Timeframe (June 19-30):**
The window for a ceasefire declaration in June is extremely narrow (12 days). For such a complex agreement to be finalized and publicly announced, all major conditions must be resolved and approved by both leaderships, a process that typically requires more time than is available, especially when fundamental disagreements persist.
While the report of Hamas’s “acceptance” of a US proposal is a strong positive signal, the lack of definitive confirmation from Israel, and the conflicting reports on the nature of this “acceptance” (e.g., conditional vs. unconditional), significantly reduce the probability of an imminent, comprehensive agreement. “Progress in talks” or “considering a proposal” is not the same as a “declared ceasefire.”
**Key Assumptions and Their Potential Impact:**
1. **Assumption: Hamas’s “acceptance” of the US proposal is genuinely unconditional and fully aligns with a proposal Israel is willing to sign.**
* **Probability of Failure/Incorrectness:** High. As detailed above, other sources indicate that Hamas continues to hold firm on conditions (e.g., permanent ceasefire, full Israeli withdrawal) that Israel has publicly rejected. If this assumption is incorrect, and Hamas’s acceptance is indeed conditional or part of ongoing negotiation, the likelihood of a declaration in June is substantially reduced.
* **Impact on Forecast:** If incorrect, the probability of a ceasefire would be significantly lower, as it implies deep-seated disagreements remain.
2. **Assumption: Internal political pressures within Israel (from hostage families, and for the Prime Minister’s government survival) will force a rapid concession from Netanyahu.**
* **Probability of Failure/Incorrectness:** Medium. While pressure exists, Netanyahu has historically resisted such pressures when he perceives them to contradict Israel’s security objectives or his political base. A sudden, drastic shift in his negotiating stance is possible but not the default. If this assumption fails, and Netanyahu holds firm, it reduces the chance of a quick agreement.
* **Impact on Forecast:** If incorrect, the probability would be lower, as a key driver for a rapid Israeli concession would be absent.
3. **Assumption: Broader regional tensions (e.g., Israel-Iran conflict) will not escalate further to completely overshadow and derail Gaza ceasefire talks.**
* **Probability of Failure/Incorrectness:** Medium. The current reporting highlights the risk of diversion. A significant escalation could redirect focus, resources, and political will away from Gaza ceasefire efforts.
* **Impact on Forecast:** If incorrect, the probability would be significantly lower, as the Gaza talks would become a secondary concern.
**Conclusion:**
Given the extremely limited timeframe (12 days), the persistent fundamental disagreements between the parties, the history of failed or short-lived ceasefires, and the conflicting reports on the true nature of “progress,” a declared ceasefire in June 2025 remains a low-probability event. While international pressure and ongoing mediation provide a slim chance for a breakthrough, the default outcome, based on the current information, is that no such declaration will occur this month.
Probability: 8%
The extracted probability is: 8%
All predictions: [8, 20, 35, 37]
Filtered predictions: [20, 35]
Median reasoning:
# Analysis: Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in June 2025?
## Current Situation Assessment (as of June 18, 2025)
The latest information indicates ongoing but stalled negotiations between Israel and Hamas, with multiple proposals on the table but no formal agreement. Key developments include:
1. **Recent Diplomatic Efforts**:
– UN General Assembly passed a resolution on June 12 demanding an immediate ceasefire (149-12 vote)
– The US has proposed a 60-day ceasefire tied to staged hostage releases
– Mediators (Egypt, Qatar, US) continue facilitating discussions
2. **Parties’ Positions**:
– Hamas has shown some flexibility on certain terms but insists on guarantees for a permanent ceasefire
– Israel under Netanyahu continues to demand security control and rejects full withdrawal
– Hamas describes talks as “fluctuating” with conflicting reports about progress
3. **Complicating Factors**:
– Regional distractions (Israel-Iran conflict) are diverting attention
– Previous ceasefire attempts (January 2025) collapsed
– Internal Israeli political tensions over the hostage situation
## Time Constraints and Historical Patterns
With the resolution date being July 1, we have just 13 days remaining in June for a ceasefire to be declared. The critical question is whether negotiations can overcome current obstacles within this short timeframe.
Historical patterns of Israel-Hamas ceasefires suggest several relevant insights:
– Ceasefires typically follow periods of intense fighting
– International pressure often serves as a catalyst
– Previous negotiations have taken weeks to months to finalize
– Implementation often includes phased approaches with verification mechanisms
## Key Assumptions and Their Uncertainty
1. **Progress of Current Negotiations** (Medium uncertainty)
– While there are reports of “significant progress” in some sources, others indicate talks are stalled
– Different sources provide conflicting narratives about the state of negotiations
– Probability this assumption is incorrect: 40%
2. **Netanyahu’s Willingness to Compromise** (High uncertainty)
– Netanyahu faces domestic pressure from both hostage families and hardliners
– His hints at “potential progress” could be political posturing
– Probability this assumption is incorrect: 50%
3. **Impact of Regional Tensions** (Medium uncertainty)
– The Israel-Iran conflict could either accelerate a Gaza ceasefire (to avoid fighting on multiple fronts) or delay it (by diverting focus)
– G7 and regional powers are pushing for de-escalation
– Probability this assumption is incorrect: 35%
## Scenario Analysis
**Scenario 1: Ceasefire Declared by June 30** (35% probability)
– US-brokered 60-day proposal gains traction
– International pressure forces compromises
– Phased implementation begins with initial hostage releases
**Scenario 2: Negotiations Continue Beyond June** (65% probability)
– Parties remain deadlocked on key issues (security control, permanent status)
– Regional distractions delay focused negotiations
– Technical details and implementation mechanisms require further discussion
## Base Rate Considerations
Israel-Hamas ceasefires have historically been difficult to achieve and often follow predictable patterns:
– They typically require intense international mediation (present now)
– Often occur after significant humanitarian crises (present now)
– Usually follow periods of relative military stalemate (unclear if present)
– Typically take multiple rounds of negotiations (ongoing now)
Given historical precedents, the base rate for successfully negotiating and implementing a complex ceasefire within a specific 13-day window is relatively low.
## Forecast Adjustment for Overconfidence
Based on the instruction to compensate for overconfidence and noting that historically only about 35% of questions resolved positively, I need to be cautious about overestimating the likelihood of a ceasefire being declared by June 30.
The competing narratives from different sources suggest significant uncertainty. While there is clearly diplomatic movement and international pressure, the short timeframe and historical difficulties in finalizing such agreements warrant caution.
## Final Probability Assessment
Considering all factors:
– The relatively short timeframe remaining in June (13 days)
– Conflicting reports about negotiation progress
– Historical precedents for ceasefire negotiations
– Current international pressure (UN resolution, US proposal)
– Complicating factors (regional tensions, domestic politics)
– Uncertainties in key assumptions
I assess that there is a 35% probability that a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will be declared in the month of June 2025.
Probability: 35%
=== Forecast Result ===
{
“probability_yes”: 0.275,
“probability_yes_per_category”: null,
“continuous_cdf”: null
}
=== Reasoning ===
# Analysis: Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in June 2025?
## Current Situation Assessment (as of June 18, 2025)
The latest information indicates ongoing but stalled negotiations between Israel and Hamas, with multiple proposals on the table but no formal agreement. Key developments include:
1. **Recent Diplomatic Efforts**:
– UN General Assembly passed a resolution on June 12 demanding an immediate ceasefire (149-12 vote)
– The US has proposed a 60-day ceasefire tied to staged hostage releases
– Mediators (Egypt, Qatar, US) continue facilitating discussions
2. **Parties’ Positions**:
– Hamas has shown some flexibility on certain terms but insists on guarantees for a permanent ceasefire
– Israel under Netanyahu continues to demand security control and rejects full withdrawal
– Hamas describes talks as “fluctuating” with conflicting reports about progress
3. **Complicating Factors**:
– Regional distractions (Israel-Iran conflict) are diverting attention
– Previous ceasefire attempts (January 2025) collapsed
– Internal Israeli political tensions over the hostage situation
## Time Constraints and Historical Patterns
With the resolution date being July 1, we have just 13 days remaining in June for a ceasefire to be declared. The critical question is whether negotiations can overcome current obstacles within this short timeframe.
Historical patterns of Israel-Hamas ceasefires suggest several relevant insights:
– Ceasefires typically follow periods of intense fighting
– International pressure often serves as a catalyst
– Previous negotiations have taken weeks to months to finalize
– Implementation often includes phased approaches with verification mechanisms
## Key Assumptions and Their Uncertainty
1. **Progress of Current Negotiations** (Medium uncertainty)
– While there are reports of “significant progress” in some sources, others indicate talks are stalled
– Different sources provide conflicting narratives about the state of negotiations
– Probability this assumption is incorrect: 40%
2. **Netanyahu’s Willingness to Compromise** (High uncertainty)
– Netanyahu faces domestic pressure from both hostage families and hardliners
– His hints at “potential progress” could be political posturing
– Probability this assumption is incorrect: 50%
3. **Impact of Regional Tensions** (Medium uncertainty)
– The Israel-Iran conflict could either accelerate a Gaza ceasefire (to avoid fighting on multiple fronts) or delay it (by diverting focus)
– G7 and regional powers are pushing for de-escalation
– Probability this assumption is incorrect: 35%
## Scenario Analysis
**Scenario 1: Ceasefire Declared by June 30** (35% probability)
– US-brokered 60-day proposal gains traction
– International pressure forces compromises
– Phased implementation begins with initial hostage releases
**Scenario 2: Negotiations Continue Beyond June** (65% probability)
– Parties remain deadlocked on key issues (security control, permanent status)
– Regional distractions delay focused negotiations
– Technical details and implementation mechanisms require further discussion
## Base Rate Considerations
Israel-Hamas ceasefires have historically been difficult to achieve and often follow predictable patterns:
– They typically require intense international mediation (present now)
– Often occur after significant humanitarian crises (present now)
– Usually follow periods of relative military stalemate (unclear if present)
– Typically take multiple rounds of negotiations (ongoing now)
Given historical precedents, the base rate for successfully negotiating and implementing a complex ceasefire within a specific 13-day window is relatively low.
## Forecast Adjustment for Overconfidence
Based on the instruction to compensate for overconfidence and noting that historically only about 35% of questions resolved positively, I need to be cautious about overestimating the likelihood of a ceasefire being declared by June 30.
The competing narratives from different sources suggest significant uncertainty. While there is clearly diplomatic movement and international pressure, the short timeframe and historical difficulties in finalizing such agreements warrant caution.
## Final Probability Assessment
Considering all factors:
– The relatively short timeframe remaining in June (13 days)
– Conflicting reports about negotiation progress
– Historical precedents for ceasefire negotiations
– Current international pressure (UN resolution, US proposal)
– Complicating factors (regional tensions, domestic politics)
– Uncertainties in key assumptions
I assess that there is a 35% probability that a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will be declared in the month of June 2025.
Probability: 35
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2023/10/9/israel-hamas-war-in-maps-and-charts-live-tracker
