How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025?
Phil’s pgodzinai, a multi-GenAI bot, is a side competitor with the machine forecasting bots of the VIEWS competition.
Here’s what Phil’s pgodzinai predicts today:
* Less than 1000: 1%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 2%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 5%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 15%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 27%
* More than 12000: 50%
Model’s Answer:
# Analysis of Conflict Deaths in Sudan for 2025
## Recent Conflict Dynamics and Casualty Rates
The conflict in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has intensified significantly in early 2025. The most recent data from April 2025 shows alarming trends:
– In North Darfur alone, approximately 481 civilian deaths occurred between April 10-24, 2025 (roughly two weeks)
– An additional 20+ civilians were killed in artillery shelling at the Abu Shouk refugee camp on April 28
– Recent RSF attacks in Omdurman reportedly resulted in 30+ civilian deaths in late April
– These figures represent only documented deaths in limited geographic areas
The death rate from just these reported incidents averages to roughly 500 deaths in a two-week period in limited regions of Sudan. If we extrapolate this conservatively across the entire country, we could see approximately 1,000 deaths per month, or 12,000+ for the year. However, this is likely an underestimate for several reasons.
## Underreporting and Systemic Issues
Multiple sources emphasize that official casualty figures significantly undercount actual deaths:
1. UN officials explicitly warn that reported numbers are lower than actual deaths
2. Deaths in remote areas often go unrecorded
3. The conflict has damaged reporting mechanisms, with the UN noting systems to track deaths are “on the brink of collapse”
4. Indirect conflict deaths (from displacement, disease, and food/water shortages) are often not tallied in immediate reporting
## Conflict Intensity and Trajectory
The evidence suggests the conflict is not abating but rather intensifying:
– Recent SAF gains in Khartoum have led to increased RSF retaliatory attacks on civilians
– Humanitarian access continues to be blocked in key regions
– Famine has been declared in multiple regions, including Zamzam and Abu Shouk
– No successful ceasefire negotiations are underway, with G7/EU calls for talks stalled
The conflict has already resulted in an estimated 150,000 deaths since April 2023 (per US estimates). Even if the death rate were to remain constant rather than escalate further, we would expect to see tens of thousands of deaths in 2025
.
## Comparative Analysis with Historical Data
Previous conflict patterns in Sudan suggest that:
1. The 2023-2024 period saw approximately 130,000-150,000 deaths over 24 months (averaging 5,000-6,000 per month)
2. The current reported death rate in April 2025 (500+ in two weeks in limited regions) suggests the conflict is continuing at a similar or higher intensity
3. As of November 2024, the conflict had already resulted in 28,700 deaths for that year, indicating a baseline of over 2,000 deaths per month
Even if we assume a modest decline in intensity from the 2023-2024 average, we would still expect to see 8,000+ deaths for the full year 2025.
## Time Consideration and Forecast Period
Today’s date is April 29, 2025, and we’re forecasting for the entire year of 2025. This means:
1. Nearly 4 months of 2025 have already passed, during which thousands of deaths have likely occurred
2. We have 8 months remaining, during which the conflict could either intensify or de-escalate
3. Historically, there has been no successful de-escalation over the past two years, making a rapid reduction in violence unlikely
Considering that we’re already seeing death rates of approximately 1,000+ per month in April, even if the conflict were to gradually de-escalate, the cumulative death toll for 2025 would likely exceed 8,000, and quite possibly exceed 12,000.
## Final Assessment
Considering all evidence, the conflict in Sudan will almost certainly result in thousands of deaths in 2025. The minimum threshold of 1,000 deaths has likely already been surpassed in just the first four months of the year. Given the current intensity, lack of ceasefire progress, and historical patterns, I assess that the death toll will most likely exceed 8,000 for the year, with a significant probability it will exceed 12,000.
The evidence strongly suggests that “More than 12,000” is the most likely outcome, particularly given:
1. The already high intensity in the first four months of 2025
2. The underreporting of deaths acknowledged by UN officials
3. The continuing deterioration of the humanitarian situation
4. The historical precedent of 28,700+ deaths in 2024 (as of November)
However, I must account for the possibility of a significant de-escalation or successful peace process, which could reduce death rates in the latter part of 2025.
* Less than 1000: 1%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 2%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 5%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 15%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 27%
* More than 12000: 50%
Details on how pgodzinai achieved the above forecast here—>
Past forecasts by both Phil and Jeremy on Sudan’s conflict fatalities —>
Background on VIEWS: Near the end of 2024, the latest forecasting competition of the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was launched. On Dec. 4, 2024, during a telecon, a group of machine forecasting experts involved in VIEWS observed Jeremy’s demonstration of his Multi-AI Oracle. Although it was too late for Jeremy to sign up as a VIEWS competitor, they urged him to run a side competition for everyone’s benefit. Jeremy chose their Sudan conflict deaths question.
Below, map of control in Sudan’s civil war as of April 15, 2025.
Below, before and after pictures of the devastation of the civil war in Sudan.
Carolyn has checked Sudan’s news sites below to ensure that they are still in operation. However, given the widespread violence in Sudan, any of these could go offline without warning.
https://www.alnilin.com/
https://www.alrakoba.net/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/ar/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/en/
https://www.alttahrer.com/
https://www.alzaeemsd.com/
https://www.assayha.net
https://www.cover-sd.com/
https://kushnews.net/
https://rakobanews.com
https://www.sudanakhbar.com/
https://sudanjem.com/
https://suna-sd.net/en
https://sudantimes.net/
https://www.sudantribune.net/
https://www.sudantribune.com/
https://sudaneseonline.com/
https://www.sudanile.com/
https://sudanow-magazine.net/
https://www.sudaress.com/
https://www.tagpress.net/
