Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of June 2025?
Here’s what Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicts today:
Accounting for all factors and avoiding overconfidence, I assess the probability at 25%
Perplexity response:
{think}
Okay, so I need to figure out if there will be a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in June 2025. Let me start by going through the search results provided.
First, looking at the sources from the US Mission to the UN and Security Council Report, there’s a draft resolution for an immediate ceasefire proposed by several countries, but the US had reservations. They wanted a condemnation of Hamas and support for the GHF. The Algerian-Slovenian draft is a key point here, but it’s unclear if it passed, especially with US objections. The date on these is June 5, which is recent.
Then there’s the Jerusalem Post articles from June 10 and 11. The June 10 piece mentions Hamas is considering a new proposal under Qatari pressure, possibly releasing 10 hostages for a 60-day ceasefire. The June 11 live updates don’t mention a ceasefire yet, just ongoing operations.
Another source from CAMERA on June 6 talks about the existing ceasefire but doesn’t provide new info.
Putting this together: The UN draft resolution is stalled due to US and P5 disagreements. However, there are active negotiations involving Qatar, the US mediator Steve Witkoff, and Israel’s officials. Hamas is drafting a response to the Witkoff framework, which could lead to a 60-day ceasefire if they agree. The pressure from Qatar and the mediator might push Hamas towards accepting. However, the UNSC resolution hasn’t been passed yet, and political obstacles remain.
The key factors are the ongoing diplomatic efforts, Hamas’s potential shift under pressure, and the unresolved UN resolution. Without a definitive agreement or resolution passed, the chances are uncertain but there are active negotiations that could lead to a ceasefire by the end of June.
**Recent Developments Toward a Potential Ceasefire**
1. **UN Security Council Draft Resolution Stalled**
– A joint E10 draft resolution (Algeria, Slovenia, Guyana) demanded an **immediate, unconditional ceasefire** and hostage release but faced US objections over language on Hamas and the Gaza Humanitarian Fund[2].
– Key P5 members (France, UK, Russia) proposed revisions, complicating consensus[2].
2. **Hamas Responding to Witkoff Framework**
– Hamas is drafting a response to Steve Witkoff’s proposal, which ties **10 hostage releases** to a **60-day ceasefire**[3].
– Qatari pressure and US mediation (involving Bishara Bahbah) are driving these negotiations[3].
3. **Israeli Government Preparations**
– PM Netanyahu chaired a meeting on June 10 to assess progress on hostage negotiations, signaling potential breakthroughs[3].
– Israel’s Coordinator for Hostages confirmed ongoing secret talks alongside military operations[3].
4. **US-Backed Diplomatic Efforts**
– President Trump confirmed active US-Israel-Hamas negotiations after a June 10 call with Netanyahu[3].
**Key Obstacles**
– **UN Resolution**: No agreement yet on language condemning Hamas or retaining GHF support[2].
– **Hamas’ Conditions**: The group’s willingness to release hostages remains contingent on ceasefire terms[3].
**Resolution Probability**
While direct ceasefire declarations are not yet confirmed, **June 2025** has seen **significant diplomatic momentum**. The Witkoff framework’s 60-day timeframe could align with a mid-to-late June agreement if Hamas accepts the terms under Qatari and US pressure. The failure of the UNSC resolution suggests bilateral or regional channels may be more viable[1][2][3].
Grok response:
Below is a detailed rundown of the news and updates most relevant to your question about whether there will be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in June 2025. As a research assistant, my role is to provide contextual information from reliable sources without producing any forecasts. This analysis draws from recent web-based news articles, official reports, and public sentiment on platforms like X, prioritizing the most up-to-date information available as of June 11, 2025. The question involves a political event, so I focused on news updates, negotiation details, and expert analyses from diplomatic and media sources, emphasizing recent developments in ceasefire talks.
First, I’ll provide a list of 10 citations, selected for their relevance, variety (e.g., from international news outlets, official summaries, and analyses), and recency. Each includes the title, a brief description, the date of publication, and a three-sentence summary of the relevant content.
### List of 10 Citations:
1. **Title:** 2025 Gaza war ceasefire
**Description:** A Wikipedia page summarizing the ongoing ceasefire negotiations and exchanges between Israel and Hamas during the Gaza war.
**Date of Publication:** June 10, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** This page details a proposed three-stage ceasefire plan brokered by the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar, which includes hostage releases and a potential end to hostilities, but notes that implementation stalled after March 2025. It highlights that Hamas accepted an initial version in May 2024, but recent updates indicate ongoing disagreements, with no final declaration as of mid-June 2025. The UN Security Council’s Resolution 2735 from June 2024 endorsed the plan, but experts observe that enforcement remains challenging due to mutual distrust.
2. **Title:** Hamas pushes back on the latest Gaza ceasefire proposal offered by the U.S.
**Description:** An NPR article discussing U.S.-mediated ceasefire efforts and Hamas’s response.
**Date of Publication:** June 1, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The article reports that Israel accepted a new U.S. proposal for a ceasefire, but Hamas deemed it unacceptable, demanding guarantees for a permanent end to the war. U.S. officials described Hamas’s counterproposals as unproductive, potentially delaying any agreement in June. It includes quotes from diplomats emphasizing the fragility of negotiations amid continued violence in Gaza.
3. **Title:** Israel and Hamas at War | Top Headlines
**Description:** A Reuters overview of the latest developments in the Israel-Hamas conflict, including ceasefire talks.
**Date of Publication:** June 10, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** This update covers ongoing military actions and diplomatic efforts, noting that ceasefire negotiations have not progressed to a declaration despite recent U.S. envoy involvement. It highlights reports of Hamas seeking amendments to proposals, with no breakthrough as of early June. Analysts cited in the piece suggest that escalating violence could further complicate talks, reducing the likelihood of a timely resolution.
4. **Title:** Hamas official says it rejects new US Gaza ceasefire plan backed by Israel
**Description:** A BBC news article on Hamas’s formal response to a U.S.-backed ceasefire framework.
**Date of Publication:** May 30, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The article states that Hamas rejected the latest U.S. plan due to insufficient commitments for a full Israeli withdrawal and permanent ceasefire. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff called the rejection “unacceptable,” indicating stalled progress in negotiations. It includes expert opinions from diplomats who warn that without concessions, a June ceasefire remains uncertain.
5. **Title:** Hamas makes hostage pledge but demands changes to US Gaza ceasefire plan
**Description:** Another BBC article focusing on Hamas’s conditions for a ceasefire agreement.
**Date of Publication:** May 31, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** Hamas offered to release hostages in exchange for prisoners but insisted on amendments to ensure a complete end to the war and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. The U.S. described these demands as neither a full acceptance nor rejection, but negotiations have since slowed. Commentators note that this back-and-forth reflects deeper strategic disagreements, with no immediate signs of a declaration in June.
6. **Title:** Updates: Israeli forces kill dozens at US-backed aid sites in Gaza
**Description:** An Al Jazeera live blog on conflict updates, including ceasefire negotiations amid violence.
**Date of Publication:** June 1, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The blog reports ongoing violence at aid sites, which complicates ceasefire talks, as Hamas seeks U.S.-proposed changes for a sustainable truce. It mentions that despite diplomatic pressure, no agreement has been reached, with experts highlighting the risk of escalation. Aid organizations cited in the updates emphasize that humanitarian crises could pressure both sides toward negotiations, but no concrete progress was noted as of early June.
7. **Title:** ‘Clearly an excuse’: Does Netanyahu really want Hamas gone?
**Description:** An Al Jazeera analysis questioning Israeli leadership’s commitment to a ceasefire.
**Date of Publication:** June 8, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The piece features expert opinions suggesting that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s rhetoric on defeating Hamas may prioritize political survival over peace, potentially undermining ceasefire efforts. Analysts argue that this stance has led to repeated delays in negotiations, with no declaration expected soon. It draws on recent statements from international observers who see little movement toward mutual agreement in June.
8. **Title:** Israel is accused of the gravest war crimes in Gaza
**Description:** A BBC investigative article on human rights concerns and their impact on diplomacy.
**Date of Publication:** June 8, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** Senior humanitarians and lawyers accuse Israel of war crimes, which could influence ceasefire negotiations by increasing international pressure. The article notes that such accusations have prompted calls for Hamas to engage more constructively, but no breakthroughs have occurred. Experts predict that ongoing legal scrutiny might delay any potential agreement beyond June.
9. **Title:** Updates: Israel commits ‘massacre’ in Gaza City, 75 killed across the Strip
**Description:** An Al Jazeera live blog detailing recent violence and its implications for talks.
**Date of Publication:** June 7, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The blog documents escalating violence, including airstrikes that killed dozens, as a backdrop to stalled ceasefire discussions. It reports that Hamas has reiterated demands for a full truce in response, but Israeli actions suggest little immediate willingness to declare one. Observers warn that this cycle of conflict could prevent any resolution in June, based on patterns from prior negotiations.
10. **Title:** Hamas chief says group did not reject US ceasefire proposal for Gaza, sought changes
**Description:** A Reuters article on Hamas’s official stance in ongoing talks.
**Date of Publication:** June 5, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** Hamas’s leader stated that the group is open to negotiations but requires modifications to secure a permanent end to the war, indicating partial engagement. The article notes that U.S.-mediated talks are ongoing but have not resulted in a declaration as of mid-June. Expert analyses suggest that while this shows some flexibility, fundamental disagreements persist, making a timely ceasefire uncertain.
### Detailed Rundown of Relevant News and Context:
Based on the citations above and other recent sources, ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas remain stalled as of June 11, 2025, with no official declaration confirmed. Recent updates indicate ongoing diplomatic efforts, particularly through U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, but Hamas has consistently demanded changes to proposals—such as guarantees for a permanent ceasefire and full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza—while Israel has pushed back on these conditions. For instance, articles from Al Jazeera and BBC highlight increasing violence, including airstrikes and aid site incidents, which experts like diplomats and analysts view as obstacles to progress; sentiments from posts on X reflect a mix of frustration and skepticism about the talks, though these should be treated as inconclusive public opinions rather than factual evidence.
There are no recent statistics or polling data directly tied to ceasefire approval ratings in this context, as the sources focus more on negotiation updates than surveys. However, expert opinions from authoritative figures, such as those in The New York Times and UN-affiliated reports, emphasize that the core sticking points—hostage releases, territorial control, and war termination—have not been resolved, with some suggesting that humanitarian pressures could sway outcomes. No authoritative resolution source (e.g., an official UN or U.S. State Department announcement) has been updated with a definitive ceasefire declaration as of today, but historical data from the past year shows seasonal fluctuations in conflict intensity, often escalating in spring and summer due to political calendars.
In summary, while there are indications of continued dialogue, recent developments point to challenges that could prevent a ceasefire in June 2025. This includes Hamas’s amendments to proposals and reports of military actions, as noted in sources up to June 10, 2025. Always cross-reference with the latest official statements for the most accurate context.
AskNews Deep Usage:
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AskNews Deep Search Response:
**10 Key Citations on Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Negotiations (June 2025)*
**[1] [Newsweek Japan] June 10, 2025**
Significant progress in hostage negotiations reported by Israeli PM Netanyahu, but no formal agreement yet. U.S. provides ceasefire guarantees, though no direct Hamas-Israel talks. Hamas remains uncompromising on permanent ceasefire demands.
**[3] [Al-Ain News] June 10, 2025**
Three-phase plan proposed: 8 hostages released on Day 1, 2 more on Day 60, and phased withdrawal of Israeli forces. U.S. President Trump offers guarantees, but Hamas has not officially endorsed the plan.
**[5] [Middle East Newspaper] June 10, 2025**
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff’s plan includes 60-day ceasefire, 28 hostages exchanged for 1,200 Palestinian prisoners, and expanded aid. Qatar’s mediators note “delicate phase” but no breakthrough. Hamas insists on written guarantees to end war permanently.
**[6] [Anadolu Agency] June 10, 2025**
Netanyahu claims “significant progress” but rejects Hamas’ terms (full Israeli withdrawal, prisoner releases). Israel holds 10,100+ Palestinian prisoners; Hamas demands their release. Deadlock persists over disarmament clauses.
**[7] [Al-Araby Al-Jadeed] June 10, 2025**
Families of Israeli hostages pressure Netanyahu to accept a deal, citing public support. Hamas demands release of all 55 captives without conditions. U.S. mediator proposes revised terms, including release of deceased hostages.
**[12] [Palestine Info Center] June 6, 2025**
Hamas negotiator Khalil al-Hayya states willingness to transfer Gaza governance to a Palestinian body but calls Netanyahu the “main obstacle” due to ideological refusal to end the war.
**[14] [Yeni Şafak] June 6, 2025**
Hamas claims flexibility but accuses Israel of blocking aid. Over 54,600 Palestinians killed since October 2023. U.S. vetoes UN ceasefire resolutions, prolonging humanitarian crisis.
**[15] [Albawaba] June 6, 2025**
Hamas seeks amendments to Witkoff’s proposal, demanding permanent ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal. Israel insists on Hamas’ disarmament. Netanyahu’s government faces international sanctions for violence against Palestinians.
**[21] [Le Monde] June 5, 2025**
Talks stalled as Netanyahu prioritizes dismantling Hamas over ceasefire. Hamas blames Israeli intransigence, citing ongoing military operations in Gaza.
**[33] [CRI News] June 4, 2025**
Israel halts Qatar talks, resumes military strikes. U.S. envoy’s 60-day truce plan rejected by Hamas as “effective rejection.” 27 Palestinians killed in recent airstrikes.
—
**Key Trends and Expert Opinions (as of June 10–11, 2025):**
1. **Status of Talks**: Negotiations remain indirect, mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the U.S. Proposals include 60-day ceasefires, prisoner swaps, and aid access, but no agreement finalized.
2. **Sticking Points**:
– Hamas demands *permanent ceasefire*, Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and release of all Palestinian prisoners.
– Israel insists on *Hamas disarmament* and control over aid distribution.
3. **Recent Movement**:
– Netanyahu acknowledges “progress” but delays finalizing terms [1][6].
– U.S. guarantees under Witkoff’s plan partially accepted by Hamas, pending amendments [5][15].
4. **Authoritative Sources**:
– **UN/OCHA**: Gaza’s humanitarian crisis worsens; healthcare collapse reported [23][25].
– **WHO**: Last functional hospitals in Khan Yunis at risk [23].
5. **Conflicting Signals**:
– Hamas claims flexibility [12][15] but rejects “temporary” solutions.
– Israel escalates strikes despite talks [33][36].
**Resolution Outlook**:
As of June 11, no ceasefire has been declared. While incremental progress is reported, gaps on core issues (duration, disarmament, withdrawals) remain unresolved. Netanyahu’s insistence on Hamas’ destruction and Hamas’ demand for irreversible guarantees reduce the likelihood of a June 2025 agreement. Expert opinions (e.g., Tarek Fahmy [5]) suggest both sides need a truce but lack trust. Monitoring U.S.-Qatari pressure on Israel and Hamas’ response to amended proposals is critical.
GPT News Summary:
As of June 11, 2025, the ongoing situation between Israel and Hamas continues to be precarious, with significant diplomatic activities aimed at brokering a ceasefire, yet substantial obstacles remain. Here are the recent developments:
1. **UN Resolution Efforts**: Spain and Palestine have introduced a draft resolution at the UN General Assembly that seeks an immediate, unconditional, and permanent ceasefire in Gaza. This proposal will be put to a vote on June 12, 2025 (El Periodico, June 10, 2025). The resolution also demands the release of hostages held by Hamas and calls for an end to the Israeli blockade of Gaza to enable humanitarian aid. Despite these efforts, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu opposes the initiative, expressing intentions to further militarily occupy Gaza.
2. **Progress in Peace Talks**: There is reported progress in peace talks between Israel and Hamas, facilitated by the United States, with Qatari and Egyptian mediation. An emerging agreement entails a three-phase plan involving hostage releases and a gradual ceasefire, however, official confirmations from Hamas are still pending (Al-Ain, June 10, 2025). Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu acknowledges the progress but suggests breakthroughs might not be immediate.
3. **US Diplomatic Involvement**: U.S. President Donald Trump has been personally involved in discussions, expressing optimism regarding a potential ceasefire agreement, although Hamas has raised reservations requiring changes to the U.S. proposals (Paltoday, June 10, 2025). The main issues include the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and assurances from the U.S. (Al-Hadath, June 10, 2025).
4. **Continuing Conflict**: Despite diplomatic movements, violence continues on the ground. Israeli military operations in Gaza persist, with reports of Israeli forces firing upon Palestinians near humanitarian aid sites, resulting in casualties (Annahar, June 10, 2025).
5. **US Veto**: A previously proposed UN Security Council resolution for an immediate ceasefire was vetoed by the United States on June 4, 2025, marking the latest in a series of vetoes opposing resolutions that did not hold Hamas accountable for the conflict (RFI, June 4, 2025).
Overall, while there have been diplomatic efforts and some perceived progress in talks, significant obstacles remain, chiefly the conditional issues raised by Hamas and the continuing Israeli military operations. The likelihood of achieving a ceasefire within June 2025 seems uncertain without a dramatic breakthrough in these ongoing negotiations.
Extracted resolution criteria links:
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Anthropic Binary response:
# Analyzing Ceasefire Likelihood between Israel and Hamas by June 2025
I need to assess the probability of a ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas by the end of June 2025, with today being June 11, 2025.
## Current State of Negotiations
The research indicates several key developments:
1. **Active Negotiations**: There is clearly an active negotiation process involving:
– US envoy Steve Witkoff’s framework proposing a 60-day ceasefire with hostage releases
– Qatari and Egyptian mediation
– Hamas drafting responses to proposals
– Netanyahu acknowledging “significant progress” in recent talks
2. **Remaining Obstacles**:
– Hamas demands permanent ceasefire guarantees and full Israeli withdrawal
– Israel opposes Hamas’s conditions and continues military operations
– UN Security Council resolution efforts stalled due to US objections
– Continuing violence on the ground complicating negotiations
3. **Timeline Considerations**:
– We have 19 days remaining until the end of June 2025
– Recent intensification of diplomatic efforts suggests urgency
– Hamas is reportedly drafting responses to the latest proposals
## Historical Patterns & Base Rates
Previous Israel-Hamas ceasefires typically required:
– Intense international pressure
– Mutually agreeable terms on hostages/prisoners
– Sufficient humanitarian crisis to motivate agreement
– Clear security guarantees
I note that ceasefires often follow periods of escalated violence and international pressure, both of which are present now.
## Time-Based Analysis
With 19 days remaining:
– This is sufficient time for negotiations to conclude if there is genuine momentum
– Previous ceasefire agreements have sometimes come together in less time
– However, the entrenched positions on permanent vs. temporary ceasefire create a significant hurdle
## Probability Assessment
Factors increasing likelihood:
– Active US, Qatari, and Egyptian mediation
– Reports of “significant progress” in talks
– Hamas drafting responses to Witkoff framework
– Humanitarian crisis creating pressure
– International diplomatic momentum
Factors decreasing likelihood:
– Fundamental disagreement on permanent vs. temporary ceasefire
– Continued military operations
– Netanyahu’s historical reluctance to accept Hamas terms
– Failed UN resolution attempts
– Past negotiations have frequently stalled
## Comparative Timeline Analysis
If I consider:
– Probability of ceasefire in next 7 days: ~12% (very short timeframe)
– Probability of ceasefire in next 30 days: ~35% (includes our resolution period plus 11 more days)
– Probability of ceasefire in next 60 days: ~55% (more time for negotiation breakthroughs)
This suggests the probability increases with time, and our 19-day window falls between the 7-day and 30-day estimates.
## Final Assessment
The evidence suggests active negotiations with some progress, but significant obstacles remain. The 19-day window provides enough time for a breakthrough, but the fundamental disagreements on permanent vs. temporary ceasefire make resolution challenging.
Given the current state of talks, the remaining time window, historical patterns, and the precise obstacles at play, I assess the probability of a ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas in June 2025 at 25%.
Probability: 25%
The extracted probability is: 25%
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Anthropic Binary response:
## Analyzing Ceasefire Prospects Between Israel and Hamas in June 2025
To assess the probability of a ceasefire declaration by June 30, 2025, I’ll analyze the current state of negotiations, obstacles, and historical patterns of similar peace processes.
### Current State of Negotiations (as of June 11, 2025)
1. **Active Diplomatic Efforts**:
– There is a three-phase plan proposed by US envoy Steve Witkoff, involving hostage releases and a 60-day ceasefire.
– Qatar and Egypt are mediating, with US President Trump personally involved.
– Israeli PM Netanyahu reports “significant progress” in hostage negotiations.
– Hamas is drafting a response to the Witkoff framework.
2. **Major Obstacles**:
– Hamas demands permanent ceasefire guarantees and full Israeli withdrawal.
– Israel insists on Hamas disarmament and maintains control over aid distribution.
– The UN Security Council draft resolution is stalled due to US objections.
– Military operations continue despite talks, with recent airstrikes reported.
3. **Timing Considerations**:
– Only 19 days remain until the end of June 2025.
– The proposed framework involves a 60-day ceasefire, which would extend well beyond June.
### Historical Context and Base Rates
Looking at previous Israel-Hamas ceasefires:
– Most successful ceasefires required weeks or months of negotiations.
– Previous ceasefires often followed intense periods of fighting.
– Mediation by third parties (US, Egypt, Qatar) has been crucial to past agreements.
– Trust-building measures typically precede formal declarations.
### Time Pressure Analysis
With only 19 days remaining in June:
– Negotiations appear to be at a critical juncture but not at final agreement stage.
– Hamas still needs to formally respond to the Witkoff proposal.
– Even if Hamas agrees in principle, finalizing terms typically takes additional time.
– Implementation logistics (timing of hostage releases, withdrawal schedules) would need to be negotiated.
### Key Uncertainties
1. **Hamas Response**: Their counterproposal could either bridge gaps or create new obstacles.
2. **Netanyahu’s Political Constraints**: His coalition may resist concessions.
3. **Military Developments**: Escalation could derail talks entirely.
4. **US/International Pressure**: Trump’s involvement could accelerate or complicate process.
### Comparative Timeline Probabilities
If I were to forecast ceasefire probabilities across different timeframes:
– By June 20, 2025: ~15% (very short timeframe for current negotiation stage)
– By June 30, 2025: ~30% (our target question)
– By July 31, 2025: ~55% (allows more time for negotiation cycles)
– By September 30, 2025: ~70% (significant time for pressure to build and details to be resolved)
### Mathematical Reasoning
Given the current stage of negotiations, ongoing fighting, and outstanding disagreements on fundamental issues, a ceasefire declaration requires:
1. Hamas accepting core elements of the Witkoff proposal (probability ~50%)
2. Israel making concessions on permanence of ceasefire (probability ~60%)
3. Implementation details being finalized quickly (probability ~65%)
4. No major military escalation disrupting talks (probability ~70%)
These conditions must all be satisfied within 19 days, which gives us: 0.5 × 0.6 × 0.65 × 0.7 ≈ 0.14 or 14%
However, this strict calculation underestimates the possibility of breakthroughs or compromises. Based on the intensity of diplomatic efforts and some reported progress, I should adjust upward.
### Final Assessment
Considering all factors, there is movement in negotiations but significant obstacles remain with limited time. Hamas’s counterproposals and Netanyahu’s political constraints make a June 2025 ceasefire challenging but not impossible. The 60-day timeframe in the Witkoff proposal suggests parties are working toward an agreement, but finalizing and implementing it by June 30 faces timing challenges.
Probability: 30%
The extracted probability is: 30%
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Anthropic Binary response:
# Analysis of Ceasefire Prospects between Israel and Hamas in June 2025
## Synthesizing the Research
The research assistants provide detailed information about ongoing negotiations as of June 11, 2025, with several key points emerging:
1. **Current Negotiation Status**: There are active talks mediated by the US, Qatar, and Egypt. A framework proposed by US envoy Steve Witkoff includes a 60-day ceasefire with hostage releases.
2. **Divergent Positions**:
– Hamas wants permanent ceasefire guarantees and full Israeli withdrawal
– Israel insists on Hamas disarmament and continues military operations
– Netanyahu acknowledges “progress” but implementation seems distant
3. **Recent Developments**:
– UN Security Council resolution for immediate ceasefire stalled due to US objections
– Hamas is drafting a response to the Witkoff framework under Qatari pressure
– Continuing violence reported on the ground, with Israeli operations ongoing
4. **Diplomatic Timeline**:
– Hamas rejected a US proposal around May 30-31, 2025
– By June 5-10, Hamas had softened stance but still demanded changes
– UN General Assembly vote scheduled for June 12, 2025
## Time Constraints and Historical Patterns
We have approximately 20 days until the resolution date (July 1). In conflict resolution, particularly for Israel-Hamas disputes, finalizing agreements typically takes weeks to months after “progress” is acknowledged.
Previous ceasefire negotiations during this conflict have shown:
– Multiple rounds of proposals and counterproposals
– Implementation delays even after verbal agreements
– Continued fighting during talks
– Political considerations often extending timelines
## Base Rate Analysis
Looking at historical Israel-Hamas ceasefires:
– Since October 2023, there has been only one significant temporary ceasefire
– Most negotiation rounds have failed to produce formal declarations
– Ceasefires typically follow intense diplomatic pressure and clear military inflection points
– The current situation shows ongoing operations without a decisive military turning point
## Key Factors Weighing Against a June Ceasefire
1. **Fundamental Disagreements**: Hamas demands permanent ceasefire guarantees while Israel continues operations aimed at dismantling Hamas.
2. **Netanyahu’s Political Constraints**: Internal political pressures make concessions difficult.
3. **Recent Rejection**: Hamas rejected the latest US proposal in late May, and subsequent amendments aren’t fully accepted.
4. **Ongoing Violence**: Continued military operations suggest parties aren’t positioning for imminent implementation.
5. **Time Constraints**: With only 20 days remaining in June, even if a breakthrough occurs, implementation protocols would be challenging to finalize.
## Key Factors Supporting a June Ceasefire
1. **Active Mediation**: US, Qatar, and Egypt continue diplomatic efforts with high-level engagement.
2. **Framework Exists**: The Witkoff proposal provides a starting point that could be adjusted.
3. **Reported Progress**: Netanyahu acknowledged progress in negotiations, suggesting some momentum.
4. **Humanitarian Pressure**: International concerns about Gaza’s humanitarian situation create pressure for resolution.
5. **Qatari Pressure**: Reports indicate Qatar is applying significant pressure on Hamas to accept terms.
## Probability Assessment
Given the information available, I need to assess the likelihood of a ceasefire declaration by June 30:
– The fundamental disagreements between parties remain substantial
– The time window is narrow (20 days) for resolving complex implementation details
– Recent violence contradicts preparations for imminent ceasefire
– Historical patterns suggest longer timelines for finalizing agreements
– The Witkoff framework exists but with significant disputed elements
While negotiations are active, the conditions don’t appear conducive to a formal declaration within this timeframe. Hamas’s insistence on permanent guarantees and Israel’s continuing operations suggest that even if progress continues, implementation would likely extend beyond June.
Considering all factors, I assess there is a relatively low probability of a formal ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas in the remaining days of June 2025.
Probability: 25%
The extracted probability is: 25%
Gemini Binary response:
**Reasoning Rationale:**
1. **Event Definition and Timeline:** The question asks for the probability of a “ceasefire declared” between Israel and Hamas in June 2025. Today’s date is June 11, 2025, and the resolution date is July 1, 2025. This means the event must be formally announced between June 11 and June 30, inclusive.
2. **Current State of Negotiations (Converging Information):**
* Negotiations are active and intense, primarily mediated by the United States, Qatar, and Egypt.
* A specific US-backed proposal (the “Witkoff framework”) is on the table, which includes elements like hostage releases tied to a 60-day ceasefire and phased withdrawal of Israeli forces. [RA1, RA2, RA3, Grok]
* Both sides acknowledge “progress” in talks, with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu chairing meetings on hostage negotiations and US President Trump expressing optimism. [RA1, RA2, RA3]
* However, despite these efforts, no formal agreement has been finalized or declared as of June 11. [RA2, Grok]
3. **Key Obstacles and Sticking Points (Diverging Information/Major Hurdles):**
* **Hamas’s Demands:** Hamas is consistently seeking amendments to the proposals, primarily demanding *guarantees for a permanent ceasefire* and a *full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza*. They have been described as “uncompromising on permanent ceasefire demands” and have not “officially endorsed” the current 60-day plan without these changes. [RA2, RA3, Grok]
* **Israel’s Stance:** Israel, led by Netanyahu, maintains its objective of dismantling Hamas and rejects the terms of a permanent ceasefire, full withdrawal, or disarmament, claiming “significant progress” but holding firm on these core issues. [RA2, RA3, Grok]
* **Continuing Conflict:** Military operations in Gaza persist, with reports of casualties, complicating trust-building and negotiations. [RA2, RA3, Grok]
* **UN Resolution Stalls:** Efforts at the UN Security Council (due to US objections) and the upcoming UN General Assembly vote (opposed by Netanyahu) highlight the political difficulties in achieving a broader international consensus or leverage for a declaration. [RA1, RA3]
4. **Time Constraint:** With only 19 days remaining in June, the window for overcoming these fundamental, existential disagreements and then formalizing and publicly declaring a ceasefire is very narrow. Historical precedent shows that such complex agreements, especially in this conflict, are protracted and difficult to achieve.
5. **Probability Assessment:**
* **Positive Factors (pushing towards a ceasefire):** Intense, high-level mediation; the existence of a concrete proposal (Witkoff framework); immense humanitarian pressure; and pressure from hostage families. These factors keep the probability from being negligible.
* **Negative Factors (hindering a ceasefire):** The core, seemingly irreconcilable demands of both parties (Hamas: permanent ceasefire/withdrawal vs. Israel: dismantle Hamas/no full withdrawal); Hamas still “seeking amendments” and not officially endorsing the 60-day plan; continued military operations; and the short timeframe. These factors significantly reduce the likelihood.
The fundamental disagreement over whether any ceasefire is temporary or leads to a permanent end to the war remains the primary obstacle. While a temporary 60-day truce is the most plausible outcome if a deal is struck, Hamas’s insistence on embedding it within a permanent resolution makes its declaration challenging in the short term. The term “ceasefire declared” requires a formal announcement,
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Traceback (most recent call last):
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 72, in fetch_gpt_prediction
return await fetch_sync(get_gpt_binary_prediction, title, perplexity_summary_report, asknews_summary, asknews_deep_research, vision_analysis, grok_report, today, resolution_date, background, fine_print, resolution_criteria)
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 62, in fetch_sync
return await asyncio.get_event_loop().run_in_executor(
File “/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.10.17/x64/lib/python3.10/concurrent/futures/thread.py”, line 58, in run
result = self.fn(*self.args, **self.kwargs)
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 58, in run_sync
return future.result(timeout=180)
File “/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.10.17/x64/lib/python3.10/concurrent/futures/_base.py”, line 458, in result
return self.__get_result()
File “/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.10.17/x64/lib/python3.10/concurrent/futures/_base.py”, line 403, in __get_result
raise self._exception
File “/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.10.17/x64/lib/python3.10/concurrent/futures/thread.py”, line 58, in run
result = self.fn(*self.args, **self.kwargs)
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/openai_service.py”, line 103, in get_gpt_binary_prediction
response.raise_for_status()
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/.venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/requests/models.py”, line 1024, in raise_for_status
raise HTTPError(http_error_msg, response=self)
requests.exceptions.HTTPError: 400 Client Error: Bad Request for url: https://llm-proxy.metaculus.com/proxy/openai/v1/chat/completions/
Task failed with error: 400 Client Error: Bad Request for url: https://llm-proxy.metaculus.com/proxy/openai/v1/chat/completions/
Traceback (most recent call last):
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 72, in fetch_gpt_prediction
return await fetch_sync(get_gpt_binary_prediction, title, perplexity_summary_report, asknews_summary, asknews_deep_research, vision_analysis, grok_report, today, resolution_date, background, fine_print, resolution_criteria)
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 62, in fetch_sync
return await asyncio.get_event_loop().run_in_executor(
File “/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.10.17/x64/lib/python3.10/concurrent/futures/thread.py”, line 58, in run
result = self.fn(*self.args, **self.kwargs)
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 58, in run_sync
return future.result(timeout=180)
File “/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.10.17/x64/lib/python3.10/concurrent/futures/_base.py”, line 458, in result
return self.__get_result()
File “/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.10.17/x64/lib/python3.10/concurrent/futures/_base.py”, line 403, in __get_result
raise self._exception
File “/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.10.17/x64/lib/python3.10/concurrent/futures/thread.py”, line 58, in run
result = self.fn(*self.args, **self.kwargs)
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/openai_service.py”, line 103, in get_gpt_binary_prediction
response.raise_for_status()
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/.venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/requests/models.py”, line 1024, in raise_for_status
raise HTTPError(http_error_msg, response=self)
requests.exceptions.HTTPError: 400 Client Error: Bad Request for url: https://llm-proxy.metaculus.com/proxy/openai/v1/chat/completions/
Task failed with error: 400 Client Error: Bad Request for url: https://llm-proxy.metaculus.com/proxy/openai/v1/chat/completions/
Traceback (most recent call last):
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 72, in fetch_gpt_prediction
return await fetch_sync(get_gpt_binary_prediction, title, perplexity_summary_report, asknews_summary, asknews_deep_research, vision_analysis, grok_report, today, resolution_date, background, fine_print, resolution_criteria)
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 62, in fetch_sync
return await asyncio.get_event_loop().run_in_executor(
File “/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.10.17/x64/lib/python3.10/concurrent/futures/thread.py”, line 58, in run
result = self.fn(*self.args, **self.kwargs)
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 58, in run_sync
return future.result(timeout=180)
File “/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.10.17/x64/lib/python3.10/concurrent/futures/_base.py”, line 458, in result
return self.__get_result()
File “/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.10.17/x64/lib/python3.10/concurrent/futures/_base.py”, line 403, in __get_result
raise self._exception
File “/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.10.17/x64/lib/python3.10/concurrent/futures/thread.py”, line 58, in run
result = self.fn(*self.args, **self.kwargs)
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/openai_service.py”, line 103, in get_gpt_binary_prediction
response.raise_for_status()
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/.venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/requests/models.py”, line 1024, in raise_for_status
raise HTTPError(http_error_msg, response=self)
requests.exceptions.HTTPError: 400 Client Error: Bad Request for url: https://llm-proxy.metaculus.com/proxy/openai/v1/chat/completions/
Task failed with error: 400 Client Error: Bad Request for url: https://llm-proxy.metaculus.com/proxy/openai/v1/chat/completions/
Traceback (most recent call last):
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 72, in fetch_gpt_prediction
return await fetch_sync(get_gpt_binary_prediction, title, perplexity_summary_report, asknews_summary, asknews_deep_research, vision_analysis, grok_report, today, resolution_date, background, fine_print, resolution_criteria)
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 62, in fetch_sync
return await asyncio.get_event_loop().run_in_executor(
File “/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.10.17/x64/lib/python3.10/concurrent/futures/thread.py”, line 58, in run
result = self.fn(*self.args, **self.kwargs)
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 58, in run_sync
return future.result(timeout=180)
File “/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.10.17/x64/lib/python3.10/concurrent/futures/_base.py”, line 458, in result
return self.__get_result()
File “/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.10.17/x64/lib/python3.10/concurrent/futures/_base.py”, line 403, in __get_result
raise self._exception
File “/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.10.17/x64/lib/python3.10/concurrent/futures/thread.py”, line 58, in run
result = self.fn(*self.args, **self.kwargs)
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/openai_service.py”, line 103, in get_gpt_binary_prediction
response.raise_for_status()
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/.venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/requests/models.py”, line 1024, in raise_for_status
raise HTTPError(http_error_msg, response=self)
requests.exceptions.HTTPError: 400 Client Error: Bad Request for url: https://llm-proxy.metaculus.com/proxy/openai/v1/chat/completions/
Task failed with error: 400 Client Error: Bad Request for url: https://llm-proxy.metaculus.com/proxy/openai/v1/chat/completions/
Traceback (most recent call last):
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 72, in fetch_gpt_prediction
return await fetch_sync(get_gpt_binary_prediction, title, perplexity_summary_report, asknews_summary, asknews_deep_research, vision_analysis, grok_report, today, resolution_date, background, fine_print, resolution_criteria)
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 62, in fetch_sync
return await asyncio.get_event_loop().run_in_executor(
File “/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.10.17/x64/lib/python3.10/concurrent/futures/thread.py”, line 58, in run
result = self.fn(*self.args, **self.kwargs)
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 58, in run_sync
return future.result(timeout=180)
File “/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.10.17/x64/lib/python3.10/concurrent/futures/_base.py”, line 458, in result
return self.__get_result()
File “/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.10.17/x64/lib/python3.10/concurrent/futures/_base.py”, line 403, in __get_result
raise self._exception
File “/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.10.17/x64/lib/python3.10/concurrent/futures/thread.py”, line 58, in run
result = self.fn(*self.args, **self.kwargs)
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/openai_service.py”, line 103, in get_gpt_binary_prediction
response.raise_for_status()
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/.venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/requests/models.py”, line 1024, in raise_for_status
raise HTTPError(http_error_msg, response=self)
requests.exceptions.HTTPError: 400 Client Error: Bad Request for url: https://llm-proxy.metaculus.com/proxy/openai/v1/chat/completions/
All predictions: [25, 25, 30]
Filtered predictions: [25]
Median reasoning:
# Analyzing Ceasefire Likelihood between Israel and Hamas by June 2025
I need to assess the probability of a ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas by the end of June 2025, with today being June 11, 2025.
## Current State of Negotiations
The research indicates several key developments:
1. **Active Negotiations**: There is clearly an active negotiation process involving:
– US envoy Steve Witkoff’s framework proposing a 60-day ceasefire with hostage releases
– Qatari and Egyptian mediation
– Hamas drafting responses to proposals
– Netanyahu acknowledging “significant progress” in recent talks
2. **Remaining Obstacles**:
– Hamas demands permanent ceasefire guarantees and full Israeli withdrawal
– Israel opposes Hamas’s conditions and continues military operations
– UN Security Council resolution efforts stalled due to US objections
– Continuing violence on the ground complicating negotiations
3. **Timeline Considerations**:
– We have 19 days remaining until the end of June 2025
– Recent intensification of diplomatic efforts suggests urgency
– Hamas is reportedly drafting responses to the latest proposals
## Historical Patterns & Base Rates
Previous Israel-Hamas ceasefires typically required:
– Intense international pressure
– Mutually agreeable terms on hostages/prisoners
– Sufficient humanitarian crisis to motivate agreement
– Clear security guarantees
I note that ceasefires often follow periods of escalated violence and international pressure, both of which are present now.
## Time-Based Analysis
With 19 days remaining:
– This is sufficient time for negotiations to conclude if there is genuine momentum
– Previous ceasefire agreements have sometimes come together in less time
– However, the entrenched positions on permanent vs. temporary ceasefire create a significant hurdle
## Probability Assessment
Factors increasing likelihood:
– Active US, Qatari, and Egyptian mediation
– Reports of “significant progress” in talks
– Hamas drafting responses to Witkoff framework
– Humanitarian crisis creating pressure
– International diplomatic momentum
Factors decreasing likelihood:
– Fundamental disagreement on permanent vs. temporary ceasefire
– Continued military operations
– Netanyahu’s historical reluctance to accept Hamas terms
– Failed UN resolution attempts
– Past negotiations have frequently stalled
## Comparative Timeline Analysis
If I consider:
– Probability of ceasefire in next 7 days: ~12% (very short timeframe)
– Probability of ceasefire in next 30 days: ~35% (includes our resolution period plus 11 more days)
– Probability of ceasefire in next 60 days: ~55% (more time for negotiation breakthroughs)
This suggests the probability increases with time, and our 19-day window falls between the 7-day and 30-day estimates.
## Final Assessment
The evidence suggests active negotiations with some progress, but significant obstacles remain. The 19-day window provides enough time for a breakthrough, but the fundamental disagreements on permanent vs. temporary ceasefire make resolution challenging.
Given the current state of talks, the remaining time window, historical patterns, and the precise obstacles at play, I assess the probability of a ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas in June 2025 at 25%.
Probability: 25%
=== Forecast Result ===
{
“probability_yes”: 0.25,
“probability_yes_per_category”: null,
“continuous_cdf”: null
}
=== Reasoning ===
# Analyzing Ceasefire Likelihood between Israel and Hamas by June 2025
I need to assess the probability of a ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas by the end of June 2025, with today being June 11, 2025.
## Current State of Negotiations
The research indicates several key developments:
1. **Active Negotiations**: There is clearly an active negotiation process involving:
– US envoy Steve Witkoff’s framework proposing a 60-day ceasefire with hostage releases
– Qatari and Egyptian mediation
– Hamas drafting responses to proposals
– Netanyahu acknowledging “significant progress” in recent talks
2. **Remaining Obstacles**:
– Hamas demands permanent ceasefire guarantees and full Israeli withdrawal
– Israel opposes Hamas’s conditions and continues military operations
– UN Security Council resolution efforts stalled due to US objections
– Continuing violence on the ground complicating negotiations
3. **Timeline Considerations**:
– We have 19 days remaining until the end of June 2025
– Recent intensification of diplomatic efforts suggests urgency
– Hamas is reportedly drafting responses to the latest proposals
## Historical Patterns & Base Rates
Previous Israel-Hamas ceasefires typically required:
– Intense international pressure
– Mutually agreeable terms on hostages/prisoners
– Sufficient humanitarian crisis to motivate agreement
– Clear security guarantees
I note that ceasefires often follow periods of escalated violence and international pressure, both of which are present now.
## Time-Based Analysis
With 19 days remaining:
– This is sufficient time for negotiations to conclude if there is genuine momentum
– Previous ceasefire agreements have sometimes come together in less time
– However, the entrenched positions on permanent vs. temporary ceasefire create a significant hurdle
## Probability Assessment
Factors increasing likelihood:
– Active US, Qatari, and Egyptian mediation
– Reports of “significant progress” in talks
– Hamas drafting responses to Witkoff framework
– Humanitarian crisis creating pressure
– International diplomatic momentum
Factors decreasing likelihood:
– Fundamental disagreement on permanent vs. temporary ceasefire
– Continued military operations
– Netanyahu’s historical reluctance to accept Hamas terms
– Failed UN resolution attempts
– Past negotiations have frequently stalled
## Comparative Timeline Analysis
If I consider:
– Probability of ceasefire in next 7 days: ~12% (very short timeframe)
– Probability of ceasefire in next 30 days: ~35% (includes our resolution period plus 11 more days)
– Probability of ceasefire in next 60 days: ~55% (more time for negotiation breakthroughs)
This suggests the probability increases with time, and our 19-day window falls between the 7-day and 30-day estimates.
## Final Assessment
The evidence suggests active negotiations with some progress, but significant obstacles remain. The 19-day window provides enough time for a breakthrough, but the fundamental disagreements on permanent vs. temporary ceasefire make resolution challenging.
Given the current state of talks, the remaining time window, historical patterns, and the precise obstacles at play, I assess the probability of a ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas in June 2025 at 25%.
Probability: 25
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2023/10/9/israel-hamas-war-in-maps-and-charts-live-tracker
