How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s April 28, 2024 parliamentary election?
Here’s what Phil Godzin’s pgodzinai bot forecasts today:
* less than 130: 60%
* between 130-171: 39%
* between 172-205: 1%
* between 206-240: 0%
* more than 240: 0%
Model’s Answer:
# Analysis of Conservative Party Seat Projections for Canada’s 2025 Election
## Initial Assessment of Available Data
Looking at the research assistants’ reports, there appears to be a discrepancy in the election date. The question mentions April 28, 2024, but all research sources consistently reference an April 2025 election. Given that today’s date is listed as April 22, 2025, and all research sources are from April 2025, I’ll proceed with the understanding that we’re forecasting the April 28, 2025 Canadian federal election.
The most recent and authoritative polling data comes from multiple aggregators and individual pollsters, with updates as recent as April 22, 2025 (today). The three research assistants provide somewhat consistent data points:
– 338Canada projects 126 Conservative seats (range: 95-160)
– Signal Poll Aggregator shows 129 Conservative seats
– Nanos/CTV/Globe and Mail projects ~121 Conservative seats
– Mainstreet Research indicates 126 Conservative seats
These projections consistently place the Conservatives in the 121-130 seat range, with a broader possible range of 95-160 when accounting for polling error.
## Key Factors Influencing the Forecast
1. **Current Polling Trend**: The Liberal Party under Mark Carney has gained significant momentum, partly due to their response to U.S. tariff threats and external pressures. This appears to have consolidated moderate voters behind the Liberals.
2. **Regional Dynamics**:
– Ontario (122 seats): Liberals are dominant at ~49% vs Conservatives at ~37%, giving Conservatives only ~35 seats in this crucial province.
– Quebec (78 seats): Conservatives polling at ~22%, likely securing only ~10 seats, with Liberals leading at ~43%.
– Prairies: Conservative stronghold at ~54% support vs Liberals at ~35%.
– British Columbia: Competitive battleground with Liberals at ~46% vs Conservatives at ~35%, though some sources suggest a statistical tie.
3. **Time Until Election**: With the election just 6 days away (April 28, 2025), major shifts in voting intentions are unlikely barring extraordinary events. Advance voting has already begun with over 2 million ballots cast.
4. **Historical Performance**: The Conservative Party won 119 seats in the 2021 election, so current projections suggest a slight improvement from their previous performance, but well short of the 172 needed for a majority.
## Probability Assessment Considerations
The current seat projections place the Conservatives most likely in the “less than 130” range, with a central tendency around 125-126 seats. However, polling error and last-minute shifts could push them into the “between 130 and 171” range.
The upper bound of current projections (160 seats) still falls short of the 172 threshold needed for a majority, making outcomes in the ranges of “between 172 and 205,” “between 206 and 240,” and “more than 240” extremely unlikely without a dramatic and unprecedented polling error or last-minute shift.
Given the consistency of recent polls, the short timeframe until the election, and the advance voting already underway, I’ll assign the highest probability to outcomes close to the current polling average, with decreasing probabilities for outcomes that would require larger polling errors.
## Uncertainty Analysis
Polling errors in Canadian federal elections have historically been around 2-3 percentage points for major parties. With the current Conservative support at ~36-41% depending on the poll, a 3-point polling error could shift their seat count by approximately 15-25 seats in either direction.
The most recent update from 338Canada gives a range of 95-160 seats, which reflects this uncertainty. This suggests that while outcomes at the edges of this range are possible, they are less likely than outcomes near the central projection of ~126 seats.
## Final Forecast
Given the analysis above, here’s my probability distribution for Conservative Party seats:
* less than 130: 60%
* between 130-171: 39%
* between 172-205: 1%
* between 206-240: 0%
* more than 240: 0%
