How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025? In this question, Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle is a side competitor with the machine forecasting bots of the VIEWS competition.
Model value:
* Less than 1000: 1%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 6%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 16%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 33%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 22%
* More than 12000: 22%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources: Based on the most recent news articles, here’s a summary of the current situation in Sudan:
The conflict in Sudan has reached a critical point after nearly two years of fighting between the Sudanese military and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Most recently, the military has claimed control of Khartoum’s Republican Palace, marking a significant development in the capital city. The war has had devastating humanitarian consequences:
– An estimated 150,000 people have been killed
– Millions have been displaced and are facing hunger
– Heavy fighting continues in Khartoum with artillery shelling and aerial bombardment killing dozens of civilians, including humanitarian workers
– Infrastructure damage is severe, with reports of sewage problems and deteriorating conditions in the capital
In parallel developments, South Sudan (which gained independence from Sudan in 2011) is also reportedly “teetering on the edge of renewed civil war” according to UN envoys. The humanitarian crisis in South Sudan is described as one of the worst in the world, with widespread food insecurity and displacement.
The most urgent news is from South Sudan, where the UN’s top official has just warned about the imminent risk of renewed civil war. Meanwhile in Sudan proper, the military’s recent capture of the Republican Palace in Khartoum represents a potential turning point in the conflict, though fighting continues to severely impact civilians with no clear end in sight.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The situation in Sudan remains dire as nearly two years of conflict between the Sudanese military and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has escalated, with the military recently claiming control of Khartoum’s Republican Palace. This development comes amid ongoing heavy fighting in the capital, resulting in significant civilian casualties and widespread infrastructure damage. The conflict has led to an estimated 150,000 deaths and displaced millions, who are now facing severe hunger. Meanwhile, South Sudan, which has experienced instability since gaining independence in 2011, is reportedly on the brink of renewed civil war, with the UN highlighting an alarming humanitarian crisis characterized by extreme food insecurity and displacement. The situation in both countries is causing increasing concern, with no immediate resolution in sight.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts stated in the summary, along with their truth-value, importance to the resolution of the question, and relevance to the outcome:
1. **Fact:** Conflict between the Sudanese military and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has escalated over nearly two years.
– **Truth Check:** True. Reports indicate ongoing conflict between these forces.
– **Importance:** Important to understanding the context and potential factors influencing deaths in 2025.
– **Relevance:** True. It is relevant to the prediction of conflict deaths.
2. **Fact:** The military has recently claimed control of Khartoum’s Republican Palace.
– **Truth Check:** True. This is consistent with recent news reports.
– **Importance:** Lesser important; specific territorial control is less directly relevant to predicting deaths in 2025.
– **Relevance:** True. Relevant to understanding current conflict dynamics.
3. **Fact:** Ongoing heavy fighting in the capital is resulting in significant civilian casualties and widespread infrastructure damage.
– **Truth Check:** True. Reports confirm significant impacts on civilians and infrastructure.
– **Importance:** Important, as current conflict intensity may impact ongoing and future casualties.
– **Relevance:** True. Relevant to understanding the current situation’s impact on potential future deaths.
4. **Fact:** The conflict has led to an estimated 150,000 deaths and displaced millions.
– **Truth Check:** True. Various reports give similar estimates for conflict-related fatalities and displacement in Sudan.
– **Importance:** Critical, as it provides a baseline for understanding the potential scale of future conflict deaths.
– **Relevance:** True. Directly relevant to predicting future conflict deaths.
5. **Fact:** Displaced people in Sudan are facing severe hunger.
– **Truth Check:** True. There are numerous reports of severe food insecurity among displaced populations.
– **Importance:** Important, as it speaks to potential mortality from indirect conflict effects, such as famine.
– **Relevance:** True. Relevant due to the impact on indirect conflict-related deaths.
6. **Fact:** South Sudan is reportedly on the brink of renewed civil war, with the UN highlighting an alarming humanitarian crisis.
– **Truth Check:** True, based on various reports about instability and humanitarian issues in South Sudan.
– **Importance:** Unimportant for predicting Sudan’s conflict deaths specifically, as it pertains to South Sudan.
– **Relevance:** False. Irrelevant to the number of deaths in Sudan in 2025.
7. **Fact:** The situation in both Sudan and South Sudan is causing increasing concern, with no immediate resolution in sight.
– **Truth Check:** True. There is widespread concern and uncertainty in the region.
– **Importance:** Important, as a lack of resolution implies continued or escalating conflict, affecting future death tolls.
– **Relevance:** True. Relevant to the overall understanding of future conflict dynamics in Sudan.
Overall, the most relevant and critical facts pertain to the current conflict’s scale, its effects on the population such as displacement and hunger, and the intensity of fighting, as these directly impact the likely trajectory of future deaths in Sudan.
Fact-checked summary:
The conflict in Sudan between the Sudanese military and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has escalated over nearly two years, with ongoing heavy fighting in the capital resulting in significant civilian casualties and widespread infrastructure damage. The conflict has led to an estimated 150,000 deaths and displaced millions, providing a critical baseline for understanding the potential scale of future conflict deaths. Displaced people in Sudan are facing severe hunger, pointing to potential mortality from indirect conflict effects, such as famine. The situation causes increasing concern, with no immediate resolution in sight, implying that continued or escalating conflict could affect future death tolls. These factors shape the context and potential for conflict deaths in Sudan in 2025.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.15, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.35, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.24, “More than 12000”: 0.2] – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.15, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.24, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.3, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.2, “More than 12000”: 0.1] – confidence: 7)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.02, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.05, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.08, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.14, “More than 12000”: 0.7] – confidence: 7)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 7
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* Less than 1000: 1%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 6%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 16%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 33%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 22%
* More than 12000: 22%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The conflict in Sudan between the military and RSF has resulted in approximately 150,000 deaths over nearly two years, with considerable civilian casualties and widespread displacement. Given the current trajectory of violence and infrastructural damage, the conflict shows no signs of abating by 2025, and secondary effects such as famine and disease could further raise the death toll. While historical patterns and current conditions suggest the continuation of significant casualties, the possibility of a sudden peace agreement, effective international intervention, or changes in leadership could alter this outcome. Additionally, substantial humanitarian aid or changes in death toll measurement methods might mitigate the predicted impact.
Runtime: 215 seconds for both questions on this page.
Background on VIEWS: Near the end of 2024, the latest forecasting competition of the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was launched. On Dec. 4, 2024, during a telecon, a group of machine forecasting experts involved in VIEWS observed Jeremy’s demonstration of his Multi-AI Oracle. Although it was too late for Jeremy to sign up as a VIEWS competitor, they urged him to run a side competition for everyone’s benefit. Jeremy chose their Sudan conflict deaths question.
Background on the Sudan conflict, as evaluated by the team of Jeremy Lichtman and Carolyn Meinel:
(1) The importance of the Sahel, a region in Africa that includes Sudan:
Why the Sahel Actually Matters (Possibly To You, Too)
(2) April 29, 2024: Today, a Russian diplomat is negotiating gold mining with the Sudanese Minister of Minerals.
(3) June 3, 2024: Today the African Union Announced Plans to Mediate in Sudan’s Civil War.
Sept. 11, 2024 Over 100K starvation deaths 96% likely in Sudan by 1 Jan 2025
Carolyn has checked Sudan’s news sites below to ensure that they are still in operation. However, given the widespread violence in Sudan, any of these could go offline without warning.
https://www.alnilin.com/
https://www.alrakoba.net/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/ar/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/en/
https://www.alttahrer.com/
https://www.alzaeemsd.com/
https://www.assayha.net
https://www.cover-sd.com/
https://kushnews.net/
https://rakobanews.com
https://www.sudanakhbar.com/
https://sudanjem.com/
https://suna-sd.net/en
https://sudantimes.net/
https://www.sudantribune.net/
https://www.sudantribune.com/
https://sudaneseonline.com/
https://www.sudanile.com/
https://sudanow-magazine.net/
https://www.sudaress.com/
https://www.tagpress.net/
Links to all Multi-AI forecasts here.
Below, a screenshot from VIEWS forecasting conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028. Below that, satellite images of the devastation in Sudan.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Model value:
* less than 172: 35%
* between 172 and 205: 45%
* between 206 and 240: 15%
* more than 240: 5%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources: Based on the provided news articles, here’s a summary of the key points about Canada’s upcoming election:
A federal election has been called in Canada for April 28, 2025, marking Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first time running for elected office. Recent polling from Leger shows the Liberal Party leading with 44% support among decided voters, while the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre trail at 38%.
The Conservative campaign launched with Poilievre promising to “restore Canada’s promise” and criticizing the Liberal government. However, his initial polling lead has reportedly faded amid concerns about Trump-style influences dividing Canadian conservatives. The election is being characterized as a potential toss-up.
Some notable developments include:
– The Maverick Party (formerly promoting western separatism) will not participate after being deregistered
– Several incumbent MPs have announced they won’t seek re-election, including Conservative Larry Maguire
– Anti-Trump rhetoric has emerged as a campaign theme
– Parties and candidates are scrambling to organize given the snap nature of the election call
– Local riding nominations and candidate selections are still ongoing across the country
The election will test both Carney’s leadership as an unelected PM and Poilievre’s ability to unite conservatives while appealing to mainstream voters. Campaign financing seems robust, with one Liberal candidate reportedly raising $17 million in pre-election fundraising.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“A federal election has been called in Canada for April 28, 2025, presenting Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first campaign as an elected official. According to recent polling by Leger, the Liberal Party holds a slight lead over the Conservatives, with 44% of decided voters expressing support for the Liberals and 38% for the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre. The election is portrayed as highly competitive, potentially due to internal divisions within the Conservatives over concerns about Trump-style influences. Key developments include the Maverick Party’s absence after deregistration, the decision of some incumbents not to seek re-election, and the emergence of anti-Trump rhetoric as a campaign theme. Candidates from all parties face a challenging election call as they finalize local nominations. This election will be a critical test of Carney’s leadership and Poilievre’s ability to unify the Conservative base while attracting broader voter support. Campaign finances appear strong, with substantial fundraising reported by Liberal candidates.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, each checked for accuracy (where possible) and assessed for importance and relevance to the original question:
1. **Fact:** A federal election has been called in Canada for April 28, 2025.
– **True/False:** False. [Carolyn’s note: True. This error reveals that the fact-check system, powered only by OpenAI, recently has been failing to access recent Canadian news topics. Botmaster Jeremy will be working on this soon.] This date cannot be verified externally.
– **Importance:** Critical. The timing of the election is central to the context of the question.
– **Relevance:** True. The election date is highly relevant to the outcome of the number of seats won.
2. **Fact:** This election presents Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first campaign as an elected official.
– **True/False:** False. As of October 2023, Mark Carney is not the Prime Minister of Canada. [Carolyn’s note: True – out of date.]
– **Importance:** Critical. The political leadership heading into the election substantially influences the election outcome.
– **Relevance:** True. Leadership impacts the number of seats won.
3. **Fact:** According to Leger polling, the Liberal Party holds a slight lead over the Conservatives with 44% support versus 38% for Conservatives.
– **True/False:** Unknown. Specific Leger polling results for 2025 cannot be verified as they are speculative. [Carolyn’s note: True — out of date.]
– **Importance:** Important. Polling data helps predict election outcomes.
– **Relevance:** True. It directly relates to predicting the number of conservative seats.
4. **Fact:** The election is competitive, partly due to internal divisions within the Conservatives over concerns about Trump-style influences.
– **True/False:** True. There have been documented concerns about populist influences within Conservative parties worldwide, including in Canada.
– **Importance:** Important. Internal party stability can affect election performance.
– **Relevance:** True. Relevant as it may impact voter confidence and thus seat numbers.
5. **Fact:** The Maverick Party is absent after deregistration.
– **True/False:** Unknown. [Carolyn’s note: True — out of date.] The status of the Maverick Party and possible deregistration is speculative and cannot be verified.
– **Importance:** Lesser. Minor parties like the Maverick Party typically have little impact on seat counts for major parties.
– **Relevance:** False. Not directly relevant to the seat count for Conservatives.
6. **Fact:** Some incumbents are choosing not to seek re-election.
– **True/False:** True. It’s typical for some incumbents in Canada not to run in elections.
– **Importance:** Important. This affects party strength and continuity in certain ridings.
– **Relevance:** True. Directly impacts potential seat losses or gains.
7. **Fact:** Anti-Trump rhetoric has emerged as a central campaign theme.
– **True/False:** True. Anti-Trump rhetoric has been a theme in recent Canadian and global elections.
– **Importance:** Important. The thematic content of campaigns influences media coverage and public perception.
– **Relevance:** True. Can sway voters and impact election results.
8. **Fact:** This election will test Carney’s leadership and Poilievre’s ability to unify the Conservative base.
– **True/False:** True. Election campaigns are tests of leadership capabilities.
– **Importance:** Important. Leadership capabilities can deeply influence an election’s outcome.
– **Relevance:** True. Relevant to how many seats each party wins.
9. **Fact:** Campaign finances are strong with substantial fundraising by Liberal candidates.
– **True/False:** True. Fundraising is a critical element of election strategy, although specific current figures are speculative.
– **Importance:** Important. Financial resources can significantly influence campaign effectiveness.
– **Relevance:** True. Directly impacts campaign capacity and potential seat wins.
Overall, several facts presented in the summary have a bearing on the original question about how many seats the Conservative Party will win, though some speculative and unverifiable points have been identified.
Fact-checked summary:
The upcoming federal election in Canada will test party leadership and internal dynamics, with important factors influencing the potential success of the Conservative Party. Concerns about populist influences, similar to those seen with Trump, have created internal divisions within the Conservatives, which might affect their electoral performance. Some incumbents not seeking re-election may also impact party strength and continuity in certain ridings, potentially influencing seat gains or losses. Anti-Trump rhetoric is emerging as a central campaign theme, which could sway voters and impact the overall election results. Additionally, the campaign will test Pierre Poilievre’s ability to unify the Conservative base, as leadership capabilities can deeply influence election outcomes. On the financial front, strong campaign finances, particularly among Liberal candidates, could also impact campaign strategy and effectiveness, thus affecting seat outcomes for competing parties. These factors collectively play a significant role in determining how many seats the Conservative Party might secure in the next federal parliamentary election.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.45, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.35, “between 172 and 205”: 0.5, “between 206 and 240”: 0.13, “more than 240”: 0.02] – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.2, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.25, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 5
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 35%
* between 172 and 205: 45%
* between 206 and 240: 15%
* more than 240: 5%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The AI predictions on the Conservative Party’s performance in Canadian elections consider several key factors, including historical trends, internal party dynamics, leadership challenges, and external campaign influences. Historically, the Conservative Party has won between 119 and 166 seats, suggesting a tendency towards modest gains. Current divisions within the party, influenced by populist sentiments and leadership dynamics, alongside strong Liberal finances and anti-Trump campaign strategies, are expected to limit the Conservative seat count, likely below 205 seats. However, these predictions might not hold if there are shifts in public sentiment or unforeseen events favoring the Conservatives. A significant improvement could occur if Pierre Poilievre successfully unifies the party and appeals to a broader electorate, mitigating Liberal advantages and potential campaign finance disparities.
[All Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
One of the VIEWS Forecasting Pages for Sudan
The chart shows predictions of conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028.
Tracking the toll of Sudan’s forgotten war from afar
Satellite image below is from the Feb. 28, 2025 issue of Science, https://www.science.org/content/article/how-many-have-died-sudan-s-civil-war-satellite-images-and-models-offer-clues
