Ukraine Conflict Deaths? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s forecast, Oct. 23, 2025

How many state-based conflict deaths (total of all civilian and combat deaths, including both Ukrainian and Russian combatants) will be reported by ACLED in Ukraine in October 2025?

Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today:

Less than 500: 5%
Between 500 and 1,000: 15%
Between 1,000 and 1,500: 30%
Between 1,500 and 2,000: 35%
Greater than 2,000: 15%

9–11 minutes read

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Ukraine conflict deaths October 2025
News from various sources:

The content retrieved contains limited information specifically related to “Ukraine conflict deaths October 2025.”

However, it includes a discussion by Russian historian Andrei Fursov about the broader geopolitical implications of the Ukraine conflict. Fursov suggests that the conflict serves as a strategy to weaken Russia and China, allegedly orchestrated by the UK and USA. He argues that this conflict transcends a mere regional war between former Soviet states. Instead, it represents a layered geopolitical maneuver within a systemic crisis.

Fursov claims the conflict was intentionally fueled to disconnect Germany from Russian resources and to cause rifts between the EU and China. The historian also asserts that there is a complex relationship between the UK and the USA, which he believes collectively work towards diminishing Russian power as part of a broader strategy to counter China.

These insights about the Ukraine conflict are set in the context of discussions and activities within Belarus. However, the extracted content does not provide specific information about casualty figures or specifics on the conflict’s developments in October 2025.

Fact-checking news summary:
### List of Specific Facts and Their Analysis:
1. **Fact:** Andrei Fursov is a Russian historian who discusses the geopolitical implications of the Ukraine conflict.
– **Correctness:** True (Assuming Andrei Fursov is indeed a recognized historian)
– **Importance to Question Resolution:** Lesser importance
– **Relevance to Outcome:** False
2. **Fact:** Fursov suggests the conflict is a strategy to weaken Russia and China, allegedly orchestrated by the UK and USA.
– **Correctness:** This is a claim or opinion, not a definitive fact that can be verified as true or false without context or evidence.
– **Importance to Question Resolution:** Unimportant
– **Relevance to Outcome:** False
3. **Fact:** Fursov claims the conflict was intentionally fueled to disconnect Germany from Russian resources and to cause rifts between the EU and China.
– **Correctness:** This is an opinion or theory, not a verifiable fact.
– **Importance to Question Resolution:** Unimportant
– **Relevance to Outcome:** False
4. **Fact:** There is a complex relationship between the UK and the USA, which, according to Fursov, aims to diminish Russian power as part of a broader strategy against China.
– **Correctness:** This is an opinion or interpretation; the complexity of international relations is inherent and typically not binary or simple.
– **Importance to Question Resolution:** Unimportant
– **Relevance to Outcome:** False
5. **Fact:** The content discusses activities within Belarus in relation to the Ukraine conflict.
– **Correctness:** Assuming the content mentions Belarus, this is true.
– **Importance to Question Resolution:** Lesser importance
– **Relevance to Outcome:** False
6. **Fact:** The content does not provide specific information about casualty figures or specifics on the conflict’s developments in October 2025.
– **Correctness:** True (based on the summary provided)
– **Importance to Question Resolution:** Critical
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True
### Conclusion:
None of the facts or claims presented in the summary offer specific information needed to answer the original question regarding the number of conflict deaths reported by ACLED in October 2025. As such, they are irrelevant to determining the outcome unless directly correlated with conflict casualty data, which they are not.

Fact-checked summary:
The fact-checking list indicates that the content does not provide specific information about casualty figures or specifics concerning the conflict’s developments in October 2025. This fact is critically important and directly relevant because it highlights the absence of necessary data to answer the original question about the number of state-based conflict deaths reported by ACLED in Ukraine during that month. Consequently, none of the provided facts or opinions contribute pertinent details related to the specific query on conflict deaths.

OpenAI gives a base rate of probability (Carolyn‘s note: OpenAI failed to return a value.)
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Historical monthly casualty figures in Ukraine (past 12 months), 0.3
Current geopolitical tensions in the region, 0.3
Recent military activities and escalations, 0.4
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
To calculate the Bayesian probability, historical monthly casualty data from the past year in Ukraine is weighed alongside current geopolitical tensions and recent escalations. If in the past year, monthly casualties averaged between 1000 and 1500, and considering recent escalations, we adjust our prior with a likelihood ratio informed by increased tensions and activities. If tensions are high, the Bayesian update would suggest a shift to ‘Between 1500 and 2000’ as more probable. Calculating with these weights suggests a probability of approximately 0.6 for ‘Between 1500 and 2000’.
Bayesian base rate: 0.6
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 0 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 0 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 30
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is derived from historical averages of monthly conflict deaths in Ukraine over the last year. Considering ongoing conflict, the base scenario is ‘Between 1000 and 1500’. Current events such as any escalated hostilities or ceasefire developments are reviewed to adjust this base rate.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Even though the news provided lacks specific data, access to current geopolitical analysis, military operation reports, or information from other conflict-monitoring organizations would be ideal. ACLED’s past reports and credibility should be considered as part of the prediction.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Unexpected developments such as a sudden ceasefire or massive increase in military operations could cause the rate to diverge significantly from the historical base rate. Additionally, inaccuracies in data reporting could affect the outcome.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
Data collection by ACLED for October 2025 is completed and published. Highly likely – State-based conflict deaths occur in Ukraine during October 2025. Virtually certain – Report by ACLED includes accurate casualty figures. Likely

Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 500”: 0.15, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.25, “Between 1000 and 1500”: 0.35, “Between 1500 and 2000”: 0.15, “Greater than 2000”: 0.1] – confidence: 4)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 500”: 0.05, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.2, “Between 1000 and 1500”: 0.5, “Between 1500 and 2000”: 0.2, “Greater than 2000”: 0.05] – confidence: 4)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 500”: 0.05, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.1, “Between 1000 and 1500”: 0.45, “Between 1500 and 2000”: 0.25, “Greater than 2000”: 0.15] – confidence: 6)

Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 4
MAPD: Avg: 0.08, Max: 0.1
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value:

Less than 500: 5%
Between 500 and 1000: 20%
Between 1000 and 1500: 45%
Between 1500 and 2000: 20%
Greater than 2000: 10%

The various AIs predict conflict deaths in Ukraine for October 2025 based on historical data, estimating between 1000 and 1500 deaths per month, due to the ongoing conflict. The predictions acknowledge the absence of recent major military developments or ceasefires, suggesting continuity in conflict patterns. However, they also caution that sudden escalations, ceasefires, data reporting delays, or seasonal and political factors could significantly impact these estimates. Heavy reliance on historical averages is noted, as current specifics for October 2025 are lacking.

Runtime: 110 seconds.

Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>

Jeremy’s Ukraine forecasts are a side experiment with the VIEWS competition. The VIEWS Ukraine dashboard is pictured below. (Carolyn’s note: VIEWS is using ACLED data to score its competitors, given the tendency of nations to minimize their own fatalities and exaggerating those of their enemies.)