Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s forecast, June 25, 2025

Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of June 2025?

Read time: 10–12 minutes

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 5%. Here’s how it reached this answer:

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Israel Hamas ceasefire June 2025
News from various sources:

(Carolyn’s note: Although the Multi-Ai Oracle begins with reporting on the recent Israel/Iran ceasefire, seemingly confusing it with an Israel/Hamas ceasefire, below it explains why this is relevant.)
The retrieved content provides details about a ceasefire in June 2025 between Israel and Iran, marking the end of a 12-day war. The ceasefire was announced by Donald Trump, with both sides reportedly exchanging final blows even after the announcement. Despite the ceasefire, there remain many uncertainties and profound shifts in the Middle Eastern diplomatic landscape due to the conflict. The war resulted in significant weakening of Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities, a victory for Israel according to experts, although the stability of the ceasefire remains uncertain.

Key details include:
1. **Conflict Conclusion**: President Trump announced the ceasefire, yet skirmishes persisted directly after. The ceasefire ended a period of intense conflict marked by significant military exchanges.
2. **Impact on Iran**: Israel’s military actions notably weakened Iran’s deterrence capacities, particularly its nuclear program and military industries. Iran’s capability for launching and sustaining missile threats has been notably reduced.
3. **Regional Repercussion**: Iran emerged from the war humiliated and more isolated, while Israel celebrated a strategic triumph. The situation has considerably altered the power dynamics in the region, affecting multiple stakeholders.
4. **Role of Proxies**: Hezbollah and Hamas refrained from significant engagement in the conflict, leaving Iran relatively unsupported by its traditional regional allies. Both groups abstained from joining the hostilities despite Iran’s calls for support.
5. **US and Israeli Military Actions**: Prior to the ceasefire, Israel conducted extensive strikes on military and nuclear targets within Iran, including the elimination of key Iranian military leaders associated with weapons transfers and developments in nuclear and missile technology.
6. **Diplomatic Landscape**: The conflict has prompted major shifts in Middle Eastern diplomacy, with questions surrounding the conditions and longevity of the ceasefire, potential consequences for Gaza, and broader regional impacts.

The overall aftermath of the war leaves the Middle East in a state of flux, with implications for future diplomatic and military engagements in the region.

Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, along with an analysis of their correctness, importance, and relevance to the question:
1. **Fact**: A ceasefire was declared in June 2025 between Israel and Iran.
– **Correctness**: External and internal record checking are necessary to validate this, but the summary suggests internal inconsistency with the original question (which involves Hamas, not Iran).
– **Importance**: Important – it directly addresses the occurrence of a ceasefire.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: False – The fact is not relevant to the original question about a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
2. **Fact**: President Trump announced the ceasefire.
– **Correctness**: Uncertain without external verification, but plausible in an alternative context.
– **Importance**: Important – it highlights the leadership role in the ceasefire process.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: False – Not relevant to the original Israel-Hamas question.
3. **Fact**: Skirmishes persisted directly after the ceasefire announcement.
– **Correctness**: This is a common occurrence in conflict situations, but without external verification, it remains speculative.
– **Importance**: Lesser – Explains the immediate aftermath of the ceasefire.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: False – It doesn’t pertain to the primary question.
4. **Fact**: Israel’s military actions weakened Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities.
– **Correctness**: Consistent within the summary, but needs external validation.
– **Importance**: Important – It reveals the conflict’s impact on Iran’s strategic assets.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: False – Not relevant to the Israel-Hamas ceasefire.
5. **Fact**: Iran is more isolated, and Israel celebrated a strategic triumph.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent, but needed for external verification.
– **Importance**: Lesser – Provides context on the outcome’s political aspects.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: False – Not relevant to the original question.
6. **Fact**: Hezbollah and Hamas refrained from significant engagement.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent; requires external sources for verification.
– **Importance**: Important – Highlights allies’ involvement (or lack thereof).
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True – Relevant to understanding Hamas’s position.
7. **Fact**: Israel conducted extensive strikes in Iran.
– **Correctness**: Internally logical but needs external evidence to confirm.
– **Importance**: Critical – Central to explaining the military actions.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: False – Lacks direct relevance to the original query.
8. **Fact**: Major shifts in Middle Eastern diplomacy post-conflict.
– **Correctness**: Reasonable, as conflicts typically impact diplomacy; however, needs external checks.
– **Importance**: Critical – Contextual insight into the conflict’s broad impacts.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: False – Not directly relevant to the original question.

The question fundamentally seeks insight into a possible June 2025 ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, whereas the summary predominantly discussed a different conflict involving Iran. Therefore, many parts of the summary are irrelevant to the posed question, though they may still be internally consistent based on its own context.

Fact-checked summary:
Based on the original question regarding a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in June 2025, only one fact is both true and relevant: Hezbollah and Hamas refrained from significant engagement. This information is important as it highlights Hamas’s position and involvement (or lack thereof), providing context relevant to the possibility of a ceasefire. Other details in the fact-checking list pertain to conflicts and diplomatic shifts involving Iran, and therefore do not directly answer the question about a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 20%
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
0.30.40.20.1
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using historical factors, assume current probabilities of individual events. Probability of a ceasefire given international mediation (0.4) combined with recent restraint from Hezbollah (prior probability = 0.2) gives: P(ceasefire|mediation,restraint) = 0.2 * 0.4 = 0.08. Adjust for other current conditions (hostility): 0.08 * 0.9 = 0.072.
Bayesian base rate: 7.2%
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 90
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate incorporates the occurrence of ceasefire agreements in prolonged conflicts similar to that between Israel and Hamas, considering international efforts and periods of restraint.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional information on behind-the-scenes diplomatic actions, internal political dynamics within both Israel and Hamas, and insights into public opinion trends could refine the forecast.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Any sudden change in regional diplomacy, unexpected escalation or de-escalation, or strong international pressure could significantly alter the prospects for a ceasefire.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– High-level negotiations between Israel and Hamas: Unlikely
– International mediation efforts resulting in an agreement: Possible
– Reduced hostilities or a strategic shift in objectives for both parties: Unlikely
– Political or public pressure on both sides to seek a ceasefire: Possible

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.05 – confidence: 8)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.05 – confidence: 5)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 5)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.05
Base rate: 20% (from OpenAI) SD: 0.05
MAPD: 0.066666666666667
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.01
Reverse Mellers: 0.13
Theory of Mind: 0 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 1
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value: 5%

As of June 25, 2025, the probability of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas being declared within the remaining days of the month is generally viewed as low across the different AI analyses. Key factors influencing this assessment include the short timeframe available, the lack of visible high-level negotiations, and the apparent absence of major strategic shifts or sufficient political pressure that are needed for a ceasefire. Although international mediation efforts might bear fruit, current hostilities have not markedly decreased, suggesting no imminent agreement. However, some AI analyses acknowledge potential unknown variables, such as secret negotiations or unexpected diplomatic pressures, which could theoretically lead to a rapid and unforeseen ceasefire agreement. This introduces an element of unpredictability, which implies that while unlikely, a sudden ceasefire declaration cannot be entirely ruled out.

Runtime: 88 seconds.