How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Here’s what Jeremy‘s latest version of his Multi-AI Oracle says:
Obtaining outside data. Checking internet sources, using keywords: Conservative Party Canada election. Results from around the web:
{think}
Okay, let’s tackle this query step by step. The user wants current web results related to the Canada Conservative Party election, including news, Wikipedia pages, party websites, and prediction markets. They also want tables of relevant data and time series if available.
First, I need to go through the provided search results to find information about the current state of the Conservative Party in the 2025 Canadian federal election.
Looking at result [1], it’s a Politico article from April 5, 2025. It says that Pierre Poilievre’s campaign is struggling due to backlash from Trump’s policies. The Conservatives are facing declining poll numbers, issues with volunteers, and internal criticism. The party’s “Canada First” message is seen as too aligned with Trump, causing some alienation. Poilievre is trying to shift to a more optimistic tone but is still facing challenges.
Result [5] is a YouTube video from April 7, 2025, where journalist Markham Hislop discusses Poilievre’s strategy linked to Alberta’s oil industry. It mentions that Poilievre’s likability is low, and the Liberals under Mark Carney have gained momentum. The polls show Carney leading, which is a shift from previous Conservative leads.
Result [8] is an Angus Reid poll from March 31, 2025. It shows the Liberals leading with 46% support versus Conservatives at 38%. The gender split is significant: men slightly favor Conservatives, while women heavily favor Liberals. Regional breakdowns indicate Liberal strength in major cities and Quebec, though Quebec’s support may be slipping due to debate cancellations.
Result [4] from Global News on April 2, 2025, reports the Conservatives dropping two candidates over controversial comments, indicating possible internal issues and risk management in their campaign strategy.
Result [10] is the Wikipedia page for the 2025 election, giving the date as April 28, with seat distribution and party platforms. The Liberals have 152 seats currently, Conservatives 120. The Conservative platform includes tax cuts, GST elimination on homes, and changes to CBC funding.
Now, compiling the data into tables. For vote intention, the Angus Reid poll [8] provides the latest numbers. The time series would need data over periods, but the search results only show the March 31 poll. Without multiple data points, creating a time series with changes and stats isn’t feasible. However, regional and demographic breakdowns can be tabulated.
Key issues from the platforms in [10] include economy, housing, environment, and immigration. The Conservatives focus on tax reductions and resource projects, contrasting with Liberal policies on housing and CBC funding.
Prediction markets aren’t directly mentioned in the provided results. Results [3] and [9] discuss prediction markets in other contexts but not specific to the Canadian election. So, that part might be omitted due to lack of data.
Summarizing all this, the answer should highlight the Conservative Party’s challenges, poll numbers, campaign issues, and policy positions. Tables for vote intention and platform comparisons are essential. Since there’s no time series data, that part can be excluded, explaining the limitation.
The 2025 Canadian federal election, scheduled for April 28, has seen significant volatility in the Conservative Party’s campaign under leader Pierre Poilievre. Recent developments highlight challenges related to shifting voter sentiment, campaign management, and external geopolitical influences.
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### **Current Polling and Voter Sentiment**
– **National vote intention**:
– Liberals: 46%
– Conservatives: 38%
– NDP: 7% | Bloc Québécois: 7% | Others: 4% [8]
– **Favorability ratings**:
– Mark Carney (Liberal): +18 (men), +26 (women)
– Pierre Poilievre: 61% unfavorable among women [8]
—
### **Key Campaign Challenges for Conservatives**
1. **Trump-adjacent backlash**:
Poilievre’s “Canada First” slogan is perceived as aligning too closely with Donald Trump’s “America First” policies, alienating moderate voters. Trump’s tariffs on Canada and annexation rhetoric have revitalized Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney’s campaign [1][5].
2. **Grassroots mobilization issues**:
– Reports of delayed lawn sign deliveries and volunteer shortages in key regions [1].
– Two candidates (Mark McKenzie and Stéfan Marquis) were dropped in 24 hours over controversial comments about capital punishment and support for Trump-era policies [4].
3. **Messaging difficulties**:
Poilievre admitted his tone “can sometimes come across as aggressive” and pledged to adopt a more optimistic approach [1]. Internal critiques suggest slow adaptation to Trump’s impact, allowing Carney to dominate discourse [1][5].
—
### **Policy Platform Comparison**
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### **Regional Dynamics**
– **Quebec**: Liberals lead Bloc Québécois 38% to 32%, though their advantage has narrowed after skipping a key French-language debate [8][10].
– **Alberta**: Poilievre’s alignment with oil/gas interests has galvanized base support but alienated urban and younger voters concerned about climate policy [5].
—
### **Historical Context**
– The Conservatives last won a majority in 2011 (166 seats). In 2021, they secured 119 seats with 33.7% of the vote [2][6].
– Recent polling suggests Liberals could secure a fourth mandate, with seat projections favoring urban centers [8][10].
—
### **Market Predictions and Volatility**
Prediction markets like Polymarket are not directly cited in available sources, but internal party assessments highlight skepticism about polling accuracy. Conservative candidates argue door-knocking feedback contradicts national surveys [1][10].
—
### Summary
The Conservative campaign faces structural challenges, including gender polarization, grassroots disorganization, and geopolitical headwinds linked to Trump. Poilievre’s policy focus on tax cuts and resource development resonates in Western Canada but struggles in urban and suburban districts critical to forming government. With three weeks remaining, mobilization of young voters and recalibration of messaging will determine whether the Conservatives can close the gap.
OpenAI gives a base rate of probability (Carolyn’s note: the Multi-AI Oracle failed to return a value.)
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 19
The following were considered in order to (fail to) produce this base rate:
The base rate of outcomes is influenced by current polling that shows the Conservative Party trailing behind the Liberals, internal campaign challenges, and geopolitical environment. Historically, the Conservatives have found it challenging to secure a majority in recent election cycles. Current dynamics and recent events could impact the base rate positively or negatively.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
It would be valuable to have more recent and detailed data on regional voting trends, undecided voter surveys, and historical voter turnout data to refine projections.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
A sudden shift in voter sentiment or major political event could increase the odds for Conservatives winning more seats. Aggressive campaign strategy changes or electoral disruptions could also play a role.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
Conservatives win more than 240 seats in the upcoming election Very unlikely
– Conservatives win between 206 and 240 seats Unlikely
– Conservatives win between 172 and 205 seats Somewhat unlikely
– Conservatives win less than 172 seats Somewhat likely
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.55, “between 172 and 205”: 0.3, “between 206 and 240”: 0.12, “more than 240”: 0.03] – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.8, “between 172 and 205”: 0.14, “between 206 and 240”: 0.05, “more than 240”: 0.01] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.45, “between 172 and 205”: 0.3, “between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 55%
* between 172 and 205: 30%
* between 206 and 240: 12%
* more than 240: 3%
The prediction that the Conservative Party will face challenges in the upcoming election is based on current polling data showing them trailing the Liberals by a wide margin. Several factors contribute to this projection: weak support among women and urban voters, internal party issues, and negative associations with Trump-adjacent policies. Historical context highlights the Conservatives’ difficulty in securing a majority since 2011, with regional performance in Ontario and Quebec being particularly weak. There are concerns about their campaign platform and organizational hurdles. However, the prediction remains uncertain as there are potential factors that could change the outcome. These include possibilities like a late surge in support, unforeseen setbacks for the Liberals, or polling inaccuracies potentially underestimating Conservative support. Shifts in voter sentiment, campaign reorganizations, or significant political events could also alter the electoral landscape significantly.
Guide to Jeremy’s Bots Reports (These don’t all apply to the current version of his bot.)
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
