How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025? In this question, Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle is a side competitor with the machine forecasting bots of the VIEWS competition.
Model value:
* Less than 1000: 5%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 11%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 16%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 21%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 31%
* More than 12000: 16%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources:
Based on the most recent news articles, here’s a summary of the key developments in Sudan:
.Most Recent Developments (March 2025):
– South Sudan is experiencing escalating tensions between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar, prompting Uganda to deploy special forces to protect the government amid growing fears of civil war. The UN Commission on Human Rights has warned of an “alarming regression” in the peace process.
– The UN is seeking $4.2 billion in aid for Sudan, aiming to reach nearly 21 million vulnerable people with life-saving assistance in 2025. However, funding cuts from major donors are threatening humanitarian operations.
– In Sudan, the ongoing conflict has created what UN officials describe as a “hellscape,” with particularly severe impacts on children. UNICEF has reported shocking cases of sexual violence against children as young as one year old. The humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate, with widespread food insecurity and displacement.
Despite these challenges, there is one positive development: Sudan’s grain production has reached 6.6 million tons during the 2024-2025 summer season, marking the highest production rate in five years. However, this agricultural success is overshadowed by the broader humanitarian crisis and political instability affecting both countries.
The international community remains deeply concerned about both situations, with various diplomatic efforts underway to prevent further escalation. The U.S. has taken action by blocking arms sales to the UAE over its role in the Sudan conflict, indicating growing international pressure to address these crises.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Recent developments in Sudan and South Sudan highlight worsening conflicts and humanitarian challenges as of March 2025. In South Sudan, tensions between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar have heightened fears of civil war, prompting Uganda to deploy special forces for government protection and eliciting warnings from the UN about peace process setbacks. In Sudan, the humanitarian crisis is severe, with the UN urgently seeking $4.2 billion in aid to support nearly 21 million vulnerable people, while funding cuts threaten relief efforts. The situation has become especially dire for children, with reports of extreme sexual violence. Despite a record grain harvest of 6.6 million tons, these achievements are overshadowed by widespread food insecurity and ongoing instability. The international community remains concerned, as demonstrated by the U.S. blocking arms sales to the UAE due to its involvement in the Sudan conflict, illustrating broader diplomatic actions to address these crises.”
Fact-checking news summary: Based on the summary provided, here is a list of specific facts, along with their evaluation for accuracy, importance, and relevance to the original question:
1. **Fact:** Recent developments in Sudan and South Sudan highlight worsening conflicts and humanitarian challenges as of March 2025.
– **True/False:** True
– **Importance:** Critical
– **Relevance:** True (Provides context for potential conflict deaths in Sudan)
2. **Fact:** In South Sudan, tensions between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar have heightened fears of civil war.
– **True/False:** True (Historically, tensions between these leaders have often led to conflict)
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance:** False (Relevant to South Sudan, not directly related to conflict deaths in Sudan)
3. **Fact:** Uganda has deployed special forces for government protection in South Sudan.
– **True/False:** Needs verification (Such actions are plausible given past regional interventions)
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance:** False (Focuses on South Sudan rather than Sudan)
4. **Fact:** The UN has issued warnings about peace process setbacks in South Sudan.
– **True/False:** True
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance:** False (Related to South Sudan peace process, not Sudan conflict deaths)
5. **Fact:** In Sudan, the humanitarian crisis is severe, with the UN seeking $4.2 billion in aid to support nearly 21 million vulnerable people.
– **True/False:** Potentially true (Need to verify specific figures but consistent with ongoing crises)
– **Importance:** Critical
– **Relevance:** True (Directly impacts the humanitarian situation, which may affect conflict death estimates)
6. **Fact:** Funding cuts threaten relief efforts in Sudan.
– **True/False:** True
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance:** True (Can affect humanitarian outcomes and indirectly influence conflict deaths)
7. **Fact:** The situation in Sudan has become especially dire for children, with reports of extreme sexual violence.
– **True/False:** True (Consistent with reports in conflict zones)
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance:** True (Contributes to understanding the severity of the crisis, indirectly relevant to conflict deaths)
8. **Fact:** Sudan experienced a record grain harvest of 6.6 million tons.
– **True/False:** Needs verification (Unlikely due to ongoing instability, but possible)
– **Importance:** Lesser
– **Relevance:** False (Positively affects food security but does not directly address conflict deaths)
9. **Fact:** Widespread food insecurity persists in Sudan.
– **True/False:** True
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance:** True (Food insecurity is linked to instability and potential violence)
10. **Fact:** The U.S. blocked arms sales to the UAE due to its involvement in the Sudan conflict.
– **True/False:** Needs verification (Reflects possible diplomatic actions but requires confirmation) [Carolyn‘s note: Confirmation here.]
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance:** True (Demonstrates international efforts to resolve conflict, potentially reducing conflict deaths)
Overall, the critical facts are those directly related to the humanitarian crisis and international response, as they shape the conditions under which conflict deaths might occur in Sudan in 2025.
Fact-checked summary:
As of March 2025, recent developments in Sudan indicate worsening conflicts and severe humanitarian challenges, with the United Nations requesting $4.2 billion in aid to support nearly 21 million vulnerable people, highlighting the critical nature of the crisis and its potential impact on conflict deaths. Funding cuts threaten relief efforts, emphasizing the importance of continued support to manage the humanitarian situation, which may indirectly influence conflict death estimates. Additionally, the dire situation particularly affects children, as reports of extreme sexual violence underscore the severity of the crisis. Widespread food insecurity persists, linking to instability and potential violence, while international efforts, such as the U.S. blocking arms sales to involved parties, demonstrate attempts to address the conflict and potentially reduce deaths. These factors are critical for understanding the conditions that could affect conflict death estimates in Sudan in 2025.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.05, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.1, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.15, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.25, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.3, “More than 12000”: 0.15] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.05, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.2, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.4, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.2, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.1, “More than 12000”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.1, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.15, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.29, “More than 12000”: 0.4] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value (not submitted):
* Less than 1000: 5%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 11%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 16%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 21%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 31%
* More than 12000: 16%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The reasoning across the AI summaries highlights a severe humanitarian crisis in Sudan, characterized by significant conflict and instability. Key issues include the request by the United Nations for substantial aid, indicating an urgent need due to the ongoing violence and humanitarian struggles. Factors such as widespread food insecurity, funding cuts, and extreme violence exacerbate the situation, suggesting a high probability of increased conflict-related deaths. International efforts, such as blocking arms sales, aim to mitigate the conflict, but their effectiveness is uncertain. Despite these challenges, there are scenarios where predictions could be incorrect, including effective international interventions, unexpected local peace initiatives, or significant improvements in humanitarian aid efforts which could reduce the conflict’s impact on death tolls.
Runtime: 142 seconds for both questions on this page.
Background on VIEWS: Near the end of 2024, the latest forecasting competition of the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was launched. On Dec. 4, 2024, during a telecon, a group of machine forecasting experts involved in VIEWS observed Jeremy’s demonstration of his Multi-AI Oracle. Although it was too late for Jeremy to sign up as a VIEWS competitor, they urged him to run a side competition for everyone’s benefit. Jeremy chose their Sudan conflict deaths question.
Interactive VIEWS dashboard here.
Background on the Sudan conflict, as evaluated by the team of Jeremy Lichtman and Carolyn Meinel:
(1) The importance of the Sahel, a region in Africa that includes Sudan:
Why the Sahel Actually Matters (Possibly To You, Too)
(2) April 29, 2024: Today, a Russian diplomat is negotiating gold mining with the Sudanese Minister of Minerals.
(3) June 3, 2024: Today the African Union Announced Plans to Mediate in Sudan’s Civil War.
Sept. 11, 2024 Over 100K starvation deaths 96% likely in Sudan by 1 Jan 2025
Carolyn has checked Sudan’s news sites below to ensure that they are still in operation. However, given the widespread violence in Sudan, any of these could go offline without warning.
https://www.alnilin.com/
https://www.alrakoba.net/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/ar/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/en/
https://www.alttahrer.com/
https://www.alzaeemsd.com/
https://www.assayha.net
https://www.cover-sd.com/
https://kushnews.net/
https://rakobanews.com
https://www.sudanakhbar.com/
https://sudanjem.com/
https://suna-sd.net/en
https://sudantimes.net/
https://www.sudantribune.net/
https://www.sudantribune.com/
https://sudaneseonline.com/
https://www.sudanile.com/
https://sudanow-magazine.net/
https://www.sudaress.com/
https://www.tagpress.net/
Links to all Multi-AI forecasts here.
Below, a screenshot from VIEWS forecasting conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028. Below that, satellite images of the devastation in Sudan.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Model value:
* less than 172: 15%
* between 172 and 205: 40%
* between 206 and 240: 35%
* more than 240: 10%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources:
Based on the provided news articles, here’s a summary of the key points about Canada’s upcoming election:
Most recently (last 1-3 days):
– Mark Carney has been chosen as the new leader of the Liberal Party, positioning him to potentially become Canada’s next Prime Minister. Carney, a former central banker, delivered a speech focusing on Canadian unity, strengthening the economy, and standing up to Trump’s trade threats.
– The Conservative Party is experiencing some internal challenges, with their candidate Cassidy Villeneuve stepping down from the Nipissing-Timiskaming riding in northern Ontario just weeks before an expected election.
– Despite recent polling showing a slight decline in Conservative support, they remain “in the driver’s seat” according to pollster Nik Nanos, though the Liberals are seeing a resurgence under Carney’s leadership.
Within the past two weeks:
– In Ontario’s provincial election, Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives won a third successive majority government, though with fewer seats than their previous term. Ford called this snap election more than a year early, citing the need for a stronger mandate to protect Ontario against Trump’s tariffs.
The political landscape appears to be in flux with the Liberals attempting to rebuild under Carney’s leadership while the Conservatives maintain their lead but face some organizational challenges ahead of an anticipated federal election.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Recent political developments in Canada suggest a dynamic and evolving landscape. Mark Carney, former central banker, has emerged as the new leader of the Liberal Party, focusing on national unity and economic strength, while being poised as a potential successor for the Prime Minister role. The Conservative Party, despite some internal challenges like the resignation of Cassidy Villeneuve from a northern Ontario riding, still retains a strong position in polls. However, the Liberals are gaining momentum under Carney’s leadership. In Ontario, Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives secured a third consecutive majority in a snap provincial election, aimed at gaining a stronger mandate amid trade concerns with the U.S. Overall, both major parties are gearing up for an upcoming federal election, with shifting support possibly altering the political balance.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, along with an analysis of their correctness, importance, and relevance:
1. **Fact**: Mark Carney is the new leader of the Liberal Party.
– Correctness: False (As of October 2023,Mark Carney has not been confirmed as the leader of the Liberal Party.) [Carolyn’s note: Mark Carney has been leader of the Liberal Party since March 9, 2025]
– Importance: Greater (Leadership changes can significantly impact election outcomes.)
– Relevance: True (Leadership transitions are relevant to the election results.)
2. **Fact**: Mark Carney focuses on national unity and economic strength.
– Correctness: True (Known for his economic expertise, it’s reasonable to associate these focuses with him.)
– Importance: Important (Policy focus can influence voter support.)
– Relevance: True (A leader’s policy focus is relevant to election results.)
3. **Fact**: Mark Carney is poised as a potential successor for the Prime Minister role.
– Correctness: True (If he were the leader, he would likely be the party’s candidate for Prime Minister in an election.)
– Importance: Important (Potential future leaders are key to election outcomes.)
– Relevance: True (This positioning can impact voter decisions.)
4. **Fact**: Cassidy Villeneuve resigned from a northern Ontario riding for the Conservative Party.
– Correctness: Cannot Verify (There is no widely-known public fact about Cassidy Villeneuve’s resignation.) [Carolyn’s note: Verified here.]
– Importance: Lesser (Individual candidate changes often have minimal national impact.)
– Relevance: True (Local resignations can affect specific ridings.)
5. **Fact**: The Conservative Party retains a strong position in polls.
– Correctness: True (As of October 2023, the Conservative Party has been polling strongly.) [Carolyn’s note: Out of date. A poll yesterday showed only a 1% advantage, not statistically significant.]
– Importance: Important (Polling strength is a direct indicator of election potential.)
– Relevance: True (Poll standings are relevant to predicting election outcomes.)
6. **Fact**: Liberals are gaining momentum under Carney’s leadership.
– Correctness: False (He is not the leader, so this statement is incorrectly attributed.) [Carolyn’s note: Mark Carney has been leader of the Liberal Party since March 9, 2025]
– Importance: Important (Momentum changes can swing elections.)
– Relevance: True (Election momentum is relevant to outcomes.)
7. **Fact**: Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives secured a third consecutive majority in a snap provincial election in Ontario.
– Correctness: False (Doug Ford’s last majority was in the 2022 Ontario election, not a recent snap election as of 2023.)
– Importance: Lesser to Important (Provincial results can impact federal dynamics.) [Carolyn’s note: True.
Verified here.]
– Relevance: True (Provincial elections can influence federal political climate.)
8. **Fact**: The snap election was aimed at gaining a stronger mandate amid trade concerns with the U.S.
– Correctness: True (Elections can be used to secure mandates during trade pressures, but the timing/context is misleading as there wasn’t a recent snap election.)
– Importance: Important (Rationale for elections can influence outcomes.)
– Relevance: True (Understanding election motivations is relevant.)
9. **Fact**: Both major parties (Liberals and Conservatives) are gearing up for an upcoming federal election.
– Correctness: True (As of current political contexts, major parties prepare continuously for federal elections.)
– Importance: Critical (Preparation for elections is central to the outcome.)
– Relevance: True (Party readiness is directly relevant to election predictions.)
10. **Fact**: Shifting support possibly altering the political balance.
– Correctness: True (Surveys and anecdotal reports indicate changing support levels can alter balances.)
– Importance: Critical (Shifts in support are key to determining election outcomes.)
– Relevance: True (Support shifts are highly relevant to predicting results.)
These analyses provide an understanding of each fact’s potential impact and relevance to the original question regarding the Conservative Party’s expected seats in the upcoming Canadian federal election.
Fact-checked summary:
Mark Carney, known for his economic expertise, is focused on national unity and economic strength, which can influence voter support and, consequently, election outcomes. Although he is not confirmed as the leader of the Liberal Party, his positioning as a potential future leader could impact voter decisions. The Conservative Party is currently polling strongly, which is a direct indicator of their potential success in the upcoming federal election. Both major parties (Liberals and Conservatives) are actively preparing for the election, which is critical to their outcomes. Additionally, shifting support levels could alter the political balance, making these dynamics key to predicting the election results.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.35, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.1, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.35, “more than 240”: 0.15] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.15, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.4, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 7)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 15%
* between 172 and 205: 40%
* between 206 and 240: 35%
* more than 240: 10%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The reasoning across the various AI analyses centers on the current strong polling performance of the Conservative Party in Canadian federal elections, suggesting that they may win a significant number of seats. However, historical voting patterns in Canada rarely show extreme swings, and the Conservatives winning over 240 seats would be unprecedented. The potential impact of Mark Carney as a Liberal leader, while currently speculative, could sway some votes. Additionally, factors such as political dynamics, vote splitting among multiple parties, regional dynamics, economic conditions, and unforeseen events or scandals could all affect the election result. Therefore, while the Conservatives appear strong in polling, various uncertainties could alter the election outcome.
All Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
One of the VIEWS Forecasting Pages for Sudan
The chart shows predictions of conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028.
Tracking the toll of Sudan’s forgotten war from afar
Satellite image below is from the Feb. 28, 2025 issue of Science, https://www.science.org/content/article/how-many-have-died-sudan-s-civil-war-satellite-images-and-models-offer-clues
