What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle is forecasting 25%, down from 35% yesterday. This contrasts with our staff forecasts, averaging 72.5%.
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Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle.
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Question: What’s the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Obtaining outside newsfeed.
Summarizing outside newsfeed.
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude(Error: Claude is not returning an array)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.3 – confidence: 6)
Querying Cohere (AI predicts: 0.5 – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.25 (25%)
Base rate: 0.15 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.13
Confidence: 5.5
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.12
Reverse Mellers: 0.37
Beta Distribution: 0.18
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.12
We queried Perplexity, Mistral, Cohere, OpenAI.
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The proposed merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel is fraught with national security and regulatory challenges, primarily due to significant opposition from the US government, labor unions, and the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). Concerns about the potential impact on the US steel industry and the broader economy have been raised, with President Biden and other stakeholders signaling their willingness to block the merger if necessary. Despite some support from policymakers and business analysts who argue for the strategic benefits of the merger, such as revitalizing the US steel industry and countering China’s influence, the tight regulatory timeline presents additional hurdles. There is potential for the merger to proceed if Nippon Steel addresses these national security issues, gains
political and labor support, and if regulatory processes accelerate before the anticipated deadline. However, the situation remains uncertain, with delays expected and the outcome contingent on the resolution of these complex concerns.
Runtime: 154 seconds.
Bestworldbot News
Today bestworldbot is #53 out of 55 competitors. A likely explanation for bestworldbot’s huge fall on the leaderboard from #17 on Sept. 10 is that we tried extremizing its forecasts. With most human forecasters, extremizing is usually effective. However, we now believe that extremizing made bestworldbot worse. Oh, well, that’s research, some things work, some don’t.

The Human Team
BestWorld’s staff of Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel also now are forecasting the US Steel/Nippon Steel Merger. Their version has two sub-questions:
(1) Will the US Steel / Nippon Steel merger be approved by the White House before Jan. 21. 2025?” Brian’s latest forecast is 66%; Carolyn’s is 70%.
(2) If yes, when will US Steel investors relations announce the final outcome of the acquisition with Nippon Steel?
a. Before November 5, 2024
b. Between November 6 and December 31, 2024
c. January 1 to 20, 2024
d. After January 21, 2024
Brian’s latest forecasts are 2%, 50%, 28%, and 20%.
Carolyn’s are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Below are their forecasting spreadsheets.


Bots vs Staff Forecasts
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More about our previous staff vs bot competition here.
Our bots vs humans experiments
Our concluded FED rate increase competition.
All our current bot projects.