What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Jeremy’s “Multi-AI Oracle” is forecasting 20%, same as yesterday’s 20%. This contrasts with our staff forecasts, averaging 72.5% today.
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Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle.
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Question: What’s the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Obtaining outside newsfeed.
Summarizing outside newsfeed.
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 6)
Querying Cohere (AI predicts: 0.1 – confidence: 3)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 6)
Median from LLMs: 0.2
Base rate: 0.2 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.05
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.08
Reverse Mellers: 0.33
Beta Distribution: 0.48
# LLM responses: 5
Model value (not submitted): 0.2
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, Cohere, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The proposed merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel faces significant uncertainties primarily due to national security concerns, bipartisan opposition in the U.S., and ongoing evaluations by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). The Biden administration is reportedly considering blocking the merger, which further complicates the situation. Despite Nippon Steel’s commitments to invest $2.7 billion in U.S. facilities and ensure job security, the likelihood of the merger being approved before January 21, 2025, appears low given the intense political and regulatory scrutiny. However, the prediction could be incorrect if the political landscape shifts favorably, or if Nippon Steel addresses the national security issues to the satisfaction of CFIUS and gains sufficient political support.
Runtime: 78 seconds.
Bestworldbot News
Today bestworldbot is #51 out of 54 competitors. A likely explanation for bestworldbot’s huge fall on the leaderboard from #17 on Sept. 10 is that we tried extremizing its forecasts. With most human forecasters, extremizing is usually effective. However, we now believe that extremizing made bestworldbot worse. Oh, well, that’s research, some things work, some don’t.
The Human Team
BestWorld’s staff of Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel also now are forecasting the US Steel/Nippon Steel Merger. Their version has two sub-questions:
(1) Will the US Steel / Nippon Steel merger be approved by the White House before Jan. 2025?” Brian’s latest forecast is 78%; Carolyn’s is 70%.
(2) If yes, when will US Steel investors relations announce the final outcome of the acquisition with Nippon Steel?
a. Before November 5, 2024
b. Between November 6 and December 31, 2024
c. January 1 to 20, 2024
d. After January 21, 2024
Brian’s latest forecasts are 2%, 50%, 28%, and 20%.
Carolyn’s are 1%, 20%, 30%, and 49%.
Below, their forecasting spreadsheets.
Bots vs Staff Forecasts
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More about our previous staff vs bot competition here.
Our bots vs humans experiments
Our concluded FED rate increase competition.
All our current bot projects.
