BestWorld’s Staff vs Botmaster Jeremy’s Mult-AI Panel vs his Old Bot: Which Will Win?
Summary of all our current September FED rate cut forecasts: Today’s Multi-AI Panel answer is 60%, down from yesterday’s 70%. Old Bot is at 70% way up from yesterday’s 20%. We humans are up by 1% to 82%.
[Old Bot] rationale: The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September 2024 is generally assessed as high, with various estimates ranging from 39% to nearly 100%. This prediction is influenced by market expectations and recent news reports, which highlight crucial economic indicators like inflation trends, labor market data, and the overall economic outlook. Additionally, the Fed’s recent openness to potential cuts and the time elapsed since the last rate hike contribute to this forecast. However, the decision remains uncertain and will depend heavily on the economic data available at the time.
More about our staff vs bots competition here —>
Our staff forecasts are below. Note that our spreadsheet also includes some of our bots.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Panel Discussion, Round 1
[Moderator]: What is the probability that the US FED will cut interest rates in September 2024?
[Cohere]: The probability that the US FED will cut interest rates in September 2024 is high, with many sources predicting a cut. The Federal Reserve is meeting on September 17 and 18, 2024, to discuss the possibility of cutting interest rates. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool has predicted the first cut will come in September, with a nearly 100% likelihood of a cut.
The Fed’s decision to cut interest rates will depend on the state of the economy. The Fed has been battling inflation for over two years, and recent data shows that inflation is cooling. The consumer price index fell to 3% in June, the lowest in over three years. The Fed has signalled that it wants more positive data before making any changes.
The job market is also a key factor in the Fed’s decision. The unemployment rate has increased to 4.3% from a historic low of 3.5% just 12 months ago, and the share of Americans in the labour force who are jobless rose to 4.3% in July, the highest since October 2021. This weakening job market has led to fears of a potential recession.
In summary, the probability of a US FED interest rate cut in September 2024 is high, but the Fed’s decision will ultimately depend on the state of the economy, particularly inflation and the job market.
[Claude]: Thank you, Moderator. As of September 2024, the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this month appears to be relatively low, though not entirely off the table. The Fed has been cautious in its approach to monetary policy, carefully balancing inflation concerns with economic growth.
Recent economic indicators suggest a mixed picture. While inflation has moderated from its peak, it remains above the Fed’s 2% target. The labor market has shown resilience, but there are signs of cooling in certain sectors. Additionally, global economic uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, continue to influence the Fed’s decision-making process.
Given these factors, I believe the Fed is more likely to maintain its current stance in September, potentially signaling future cuts if economic conditions warrant. However, they will likely want to see sustained progress on inflation and clearer signs of economic softening before implementing any rate cuts. The probability of a rate cut in September 2024 is, in my estimation, around 20-30%, but this could change rapidly based on incoming economic data and global events.
[Perplexity]: Thank you for the opportunity to share my thoughts. Based on recent economic indicators and statements from Federal Reserve officials, it appears highly likely that the US FED will cut interest rates in September 2024. The weakening job market, with the unemployment rate increasing to 4.3% from a historic low of 3.5% just 12 months ago, and inflation retreating back to the Fed’s 2% target, are key factors supporting this prediction. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has also given strong indications of a rate cut in September, citing the diminished upside risks to inflation and increased downside risks to employment.
Furthermore, the minutes from the Fed’s July meeting reveal that a “vast majority” of officials agreed that a rate cut would be appropriate in September if the data continued to come in as expected. This consensus, combined with the recent economic data, suggests a high probability of a rate cut. Additionally, financial markets have been expecting a rate cut, with futures prices indicating a near certainty of a cut in September.
In conclusion, given the current economic conditions and the Fed’s communication, I believe the probability of the US FED cutting interest rates in September 2024 is very high. This move is expected to ease borrowing costs and potentially boost the economy, addressing concerns about a potential recession.
[OpenAI]: Thank you, Moderator. Given the current economic indicators and recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) communications, it is plausible to consider that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this month is relatively low. The U.S. economy has shown resilience, with robust job growth and stable consumer spending. Inflation has been gradually tapering, but it remains slightly above the Fed’s targeted 2% rate, which means that the central bank might opt to maintain the current interest rate level to avoid reigniting inflationary pressures.
Moreover, during the latest Jackson Hole Symposium, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of data dependency and conveyed a cautiously hawkish stance. He reiterated that while the Fed is aware of potential economic risks, they are more inclined to wait for more substantive evidence of economic slowdown or a more significant drop in inflation before considering rate cuts. This aligns with the broader monetary policy stance that aims to ensure inflation is firmly under control before turning to more accommodative measures.
In addition, financial markets have also adjusted their expectations, as implied by the futures market, which reflects a relatively low probability of rate cuts in the near term. The market’s pricing suggests that investors anticipate the Fed to hold rates steady through the rest of the year unless there are substantial economic downturns or financial distress that necessitate action. Overall, while never completely off the table, the probability of a rate cut in September 2024 seems lower given the current economic landscape and monetary policy signals.
Multi-AI Panel Discussion, Round 2
[Cohere]: Thank you, Moderator. I would like to add that the probability of a US FED interest rate cut in September 2024 is high, and the Fed’s decision will depend on the state of the economy, particularly inflation and the job market.
The Fed has been battling inflation for over two years, and recent data shows that inflation is cooling. The consumer price index fell to 2.9% in July, the lowest in three years. The Fed has signalled that it wants more positive data before making any changes.
The job market is also a key factor in the Fed’s decision. The unemployment rate has increased to 4.3% from a historic low of 3.5% just 12 months ago, and the share of Americans in the labour force who are jobless rose to 4.3% in July, the highest since October 2021. This weakening job market has led to fears of a potential recession.
The Fed’s July meeting minutes revealed that a “vast majority” of officials agreed that a rate cut would be appropriate in September if the data continued to come in as expected. This
[Claude]: Thank you for the opportunity to provide closing remarks. I’d like to address a few key points raised by my fellow panelists and offer some additional perspective.
While some participants have cited a high probability of a rate cut in September 2024 based on current economic indicators and market expectations, I believe we should exercise caution in making such definitive predictions this far in advance. Economic conditions can change rapidly, and the Fed has consistently emphasized its data-dependent approach. The cooling inflation and weakening job market mentioned by some panelists are indeed important factors, but they represent a snapshot of current conditions rather than a guaranteed trajectory.
It’s worth noting that the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment often requires delicate balancing. While inflation has moderated, it remains above the 2% target. The Fed may want to see sustained progress towards this goal before implementing rate cuts. Additionally, while the job market has shown some signs of softening, it remains relatively strong by historical standards. The Fed will likely want to avoid premature easing that could potentially reignite inflationary pressures or create financial instability.
Ultimately, I believe the probability of a rate cut in September 2024 is moderate – perhaps around 40-50% – but with significant uncertainty. The Fed’s decision will depend not only on domestic economic indicators but also on global economic conditions, geopolitical factors, and financial market stability. As we approach the date, clearer signals from Fed officials and more recent economic data will provide a more accurate picture of the likelihood of a rate cut.
[Perplexity]: Thank you for the opportunity to provide closing remarks. I’d like to address a few key points raised by my fellow panelists and offer some additional perspective.
While some participants have cited a high probability of a rate cut in September 2024 based on current economic indicators and market expectations, I believe we should exercise caution in making such definitive predictions this far in advance. Economic conditions can change rapidly, and the Fed has consistently emphasized its data-dependent approach. The cooling inflation and weakening job market mentioned by some panelists are indeed important factors, but they represent a snapshot of current conditions rather than a guaranteed trajectory.
It’s worth noting that the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment often requires delicate balancing. While inflation has moderated, it remains above the 2% target. The Fed may want to see sustained progress towards this goal before implementing rate cuts.
Additionally, while the job market has shown some signs of softening, it remains relatively strong by historical standards. The Fed will likely want to avoid premature easing that could potentially reignite inflationary pressures or create financial instability.
Ultimately, I believe the probability of a rate cut in September 2024 is moderate – perhaps around 40-50% – but with significant uncertainty. The Fed’s decision will depend not only on domestic economic indicators but also on global economic conditions, geopolitical factors, and financial market stability. As we approach the date, clearer signals from Fed officials and more recent economic data will provide a more accurate picture of the likelihood of a rate cut.
[OpenAI]: Thank you, Moderator. To wrap up, I’d like to emphasize the importance of a nuanced understanding when predicting the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September 2024. While some indicators and market tools suggest a high probability, we must acknowledge the complexity of the economic landscape and the Fed’s vigilant, data-driven approach.
Historically, the Fed’s decisions hinge on a balance between combating inflation and ensuring maximum employment. Despite recent cooling, inflation remains above target, indicating that further progress is necessary before the Fed might confidently pivot to a more accommodative policy stance. Similarly, the job market, while showing some signs of weakness, still holds relatively strong aspects compared to broader historical trends.
In conclusion, while it is tempting to rely heavily on present data and market sentiment to predict a rate cut in September 2024, we should remain cautious and adaptable. With economic conditions subject to rapid changes and influenced by a myriad of domestic and global factors, a more measured estimate would place the probability of a rate cut at a moderate level, perhaps around 40-50%. The landscape will become clearer as we edge closer to the date, supplemented by ongoing economic reports and the Fed’s own evolving communications.
AI Panel Predictions
[Perplexity]: (AI predicts: 0.85)
[Claude]: (AI predicts: 0.6)
[Mistral]: (AI predicts: 0.45)
[Cohere]: (AI predicts: 0.45)
[OpenAI]: (AI predicts: 0.65)
Median: 0.6
