What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Jeremy’s “Multi-AI Oracle” is forecasting 20%, down from Friday’s 30%. This contrasts with our staff forecasts, averaging 72.5% today.
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Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle.
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Question: What’s the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Obtaining outside newsfeed.
Summarizing outside newsfeed.
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.3 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 7)
Querying Cohere (AI predicts: 0.1 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 6)
Median from LLMs: 0.2 (20%)
Base rate: 0.2 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.07
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.08
Reverse Mellers: 0.33
Beta Distribution: 0.47
# LLM responses: 5
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, Cohere, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The potential merger between U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel faces significant political and regulatory hurdles, including opposition from President Biden and the United Steelworkers union, and requires a recommendation from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). The U.S. government has extended the review process by 90 days, likely pushing the decision into December 2024. Given the complexities and the upcoming presidential elections, an official announcement before January 21, 2025, seems unlikely.
Runtime: 61 seconds.
Jeremy’s bestworldbot:
Through June 2025, Jeremy plans on continuing to field another of his creations, bestworldbot, on the next quarter beginning Oct. 1, 2024, of the current Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament.
Below is its leaderboard of Oct. 1, 2024. Bestworldbot is #51 out of 55 competitors. A likely explanation for bestworldbot’s poor status is that we experimented with extremizing its forecasts. With most human forecasters, extremizing is, on average, effective. However, we now have concluded that extremizing made bestworldbot worse.
The Human Team
BestWorld’s staff of Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel also now are forecasting the US Steel/Nippon Steel Merger. Their version has two sub-questions:
(1) Will the US Steel / Nippon Steel merger be approved by the White House before Jan. 2025?” Brian’s latest forecast is 78%; Carolyn’s is 70%.
(2) If yes, when will US Steel investors relations announce the final outcome of the acquisition with Nippon Steel?
a. Before November 5, 2024
b. Between November 6 and December 31, 2024
c. January 1 to 20, 2024
d. After January 21, 2024
Brian’s latest forecasts are 2%, 50%, 28%, and 20%.
Carolyn’s are 1%, 20%, 30%, and 49%.
Below, their forecasting spreadsheets.
Bots vs Staff Forecasts
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More about our previous staff vs bot competition here.
Our bots vs humans experiments
Our concluded FED rate increase competition.
All our current bot projects.
