What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Jeremy’s “Multi-AI Oracle” is forecasting 30%, down from yesterday’s 40%.
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Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle.
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Question: What’s the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Obtaining outside newsfeed.
Summarizing outside newsfeed.
Obtaining outside newsfeed.
Summarizing outside newsfeed.
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.3 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.3 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.3 – confidence: 6)
Querying Cohere (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 4)
Median from LLMs: 0.3
Base rate: 0.25 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.04
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.18
Reverse Mellers: 0.4
Beta Distribution: 0.11
# LLM responses: 5
Rationale: We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, Cohere, OpenAI.
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows: The proposed merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel is encountering substantial opposition and scrutiny from various quarters, including the United Steelworkers union, high-profile political figures such as President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, and the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). While an arbitration board has ruled in favor of the buyout, the deal faces significant regulatory and political hurdles, with a final decision expected post the November elections. The ongoing resistance and scrutiny imply that an official announcement of the merger before January 21, 2025, appears unlikely.
Runtime: 71 seconds.
Background:
Jeremy Lichtman has been coding updates to Old Bot, now named the Multi-AI Oracle, as he explores ways to teach AIs to become better forecasters, perhaps someday, better than our human team of Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel, both of whom are “superforecasters™.”
Jeremy’s bestworldbot:
Through June 2025, Jeremy plans on continuing to field another of his creations, bestworldbot, on the next quarter beginning Oct. 1, 2024, of the current Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament.
Below is its leaderboard of Sept. 27, 2024. Bestworldbot is #43 out of 52 competitors. A likely explanation for bestworldbot’s poor status recently is that we tried extremizing its forecasts. With most human forecasters, extremizing is, on average, effective. However, we now have concluded that extremizing made bestworldbot worse.
The Human Team
BestWorld’s staff of Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel also now are forecasting the US Steel/Nippon Steel Merger. Their version has two sub-questions:
(1) Will the US Steel / Nippon Steel merger be approved by the White House ibefore Jan. 2025?” Currently, Brian is forecasting 75%, Carolyn just 25%.
(2) If yes, when will US Steel investors relations announce the final outcome of the acquisition with Nippon Steel?
a. Before November 5, 2024
b. Between November 6 and December 31, 2024
c. January 1 to 20, 2024
d. After January 21, 2024
Currently, Brian is the only forecaster, with 2%, 50%, 28% and 20%
Previously, we had been competing with Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s Mult-AI Panel on “What is the probability that the US Federal Reserve Board will cut interest rates in September 2024?” The answer: Sept. 18, 2024, the US FED lowered its key overnight borrowing rate by a half percentage point, or 50 basis points, a huge cut compared to the usual quarter point changes, and the first cut since 2020. Later we’ll post our scores. The final scores will not be what we forecasted just before the answer was known, because being more correct — or incorrect — earlier will count toward the final scores.
Summary of all our FED rate forecasts: We stopped reporting the Multi-AI Panel on Sept. 13. Its final answer was 85%, up from the previous day’s 75%. As of Sept. 18, Old Bot had dropped from 85% to just 55%. Our staffers remained at 84% median, 95% with extremizing via one of Prof. Barbara Meller’s algorithms. This includes the effect of our earlier, lower forecasts. Our final spot forecasts on Sept. 12, were was 98% for Brian, 99% for Carolyn.
Our FED rate forecast staff forecasts are below. Note that our spreadsheet also included some of our bots.
The currently retired Multi-AI Panel
There were five generative AIs on the Multi-AI Panel: Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, Cohere, and OpenAI. They forecasted just one question: “What is the probability that the US Federal Reserve Board will cut interest rates in September 2024?” The answer: Yes.
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Jeremy’s previous Bots vs Staff forecasts:
Sept. 26, 2024
Sept. 25, 2024
Sept. 24, 2024
Sept. 23, 2024
Sept. 18, 2024
Sept. 17, 2024
Sept. 16, 2024
Sept. 13, 2024
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Aug. 30, 2024
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Aug. 1, 2024
July 31, 2024
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July 26, 2024
July 25, 2024
More about our previous staff vs bot competition here.
Our bots vs humans experiments
Our concluded FED rate increase competition.
All our current bot projects.
