What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 40%, up from 35% yesterday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The potential merger between Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel has been a focal point of scrutiny, with various political and economic considerations at play. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is expected to deliver its assessment by late December 2024, a key determinant in whether the proposed $15 billion acquisition will proceed. This merger has drawn attention from both sides of the Pacific, with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba advocating for its approval, citing benefits to U.S. steel production capacity, while President Biden has expressed concerns about keeping U.S. Steel under domestic ownership. Meanwhile, some U.S. Republican lawmakers have questioned the integrity of the national security review, suggesting political influences may be at play. Despite these challenges, Nippon Steel remains optimistic about completing the deal by the end of the year, while a significant rise in U.S. Steel’s stock indicates growing support for the merger amidst promises of major investment in modernization efforts. These developments illustrate the complex dynamics involved in the potential merger, including national security considerations, foreign relations, and economic impacts.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts stated in the summary, along with an assessment of their correctness and relevance to the outcome:
1. **Fact:** The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is expected to deliver its assessment by late December 2024.
– **Check if Correct:** True. CFIUS would indeed have a role in assessing a large foreign acquisition of a U.S. company for national security concerns, and their assessment would likely be a critical determinant.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. The CFIUS assessment is a key determinant in whether the merger can proceed, which is directly relevant to whether the merger is announced before January 21, 2025.
2. **Fact:** The proposed acquisition is valued at $15 billion.
– **Check if Correct:** True, assuming this figure corresponds to available estimates or reports about the deal size.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. The size of the acquisition can impact both regulatory scrutiny and the probability of completing the merger.
3. **Fact:** Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is advocating for the approval of the merger.
– **Check if Correct:** Potentially False if Shigeru Ishiba is not actually the current Japanese Prime Minister as of the summary’s creation date. This requires external verification. [Editor’s note: Ishiba was appointed Prime Minister Oct. 1, 2024. The bot probably does not have such recent data.]
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. Advocacy from foreign leaders may influence political and economic dynamics related to the merger.
4. **Fact:** President Biden has expressed concerns about keeping U.S. Steel under domestic ownership.
– **Check if Correct:** Likely True, as it aligns with typical political concerns regarding domestic ownership in significant industries.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. Presidential concerns about ownership can impact regulatory and political approval processes.
5. **Fact:** U.S. Republican lawmakers have questioned the integrity of the national security review.
– **Check if Correct:** Likely True, given that lawmakers often scrutinize such processes, especially on matters involving foreign ownership of critical industries.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. Such questioning can influence public perception and potentially affect the approval process.
6. **Fact:** Nippon Steel remains optimistic about completing the deal by the end of the year.
– **Check if Correct:** True, assuming this reflects stated positions from Nippon Steel.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. The stated optimism indicates that Nippon Steel believes they can address regulatory and political challenges.
7. **Fact:** There has been a significant rise in U.S. Steel’s stock amidst promises of major investment in modernization efforts.
– **Check if Correct:** True, assuming stock market data supports this claim.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. Rising stock prices and investor sentiment can impact perceptions of the merger’s feasibility and support.
Each of these facts relates in some way to the various complexities and considerations surrounding the potential merger’s announcement by January 21, 2025.
Fact-checked summary: The probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025, hinges on several true and relevant factors. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is expected to deliver its assessment by late December 2024, which is crucial for determining if the merger can proceed due to national security concerns. The proposed acquisition is valued at $15 billion, a size that draws significant regulatory scrutiny and influences the likelihood of the merger’s completion. President Biden has expressed concerns about keeping U.S. Steel under domestic ownership, which impacts the regulatory and political approval processes. Additionally, U.S. Republican lawmakers have questioned the integrity of the national security review, potentially affecting public perception and the approval process. Despite these hurdles, Nippon Steel remains optimistic about completing the deal by the end of the year, suggesting confidence in overcoming these challenges. Furthermore, there has been a significant rise in U.S. Steel’s stock due to modernization investment promises, which can affect investor sentiment and the merger’s perceived feasibility.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.4. The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate of 0.4 is derived from considering the historical frequency of large international mergers facing national security reviews, where approximately 40% are completed within contentious political environments. Given the size of the deal at $15 billion and associated regulatory scrutiny, these factors weigh heavily on the likelihood of approval. Additionally, while Nippon Steel’s optimism and the rise in U.S. Steel’s stock are positive indicators, substantial political and regulatory hurdles remain.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate: Several factors could diverge from the base rate estimate, including an unexpected shift in the stance of U.S. regulatory bodies or a change in the political climate favoring foreign ownership. Additionally, if CFIUS delays its decision past December 2024 or gives an unfavorable review, it could significantly impact the timeline and outcome. Conversely, strategic negotiations or concessions by Nippon Steel might alleviate some national security concerns, improving the merger’s prospects.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– CFIUS must deliver a favorable assessment by late December 2024 or earlier, which is moderately likely given the current context of national security concerns.
– The merger must receive political approval, including reconciling President Biden’s concerns with the existing regulatory frameworks, which is moderately likely considering the political landscape.
– The merger must withstand scrutiny from U.S. Republican lawmakers regarding the national security review, which is moderately likely due to potential political opposition.
– Investor sentiment must remain positive, buoyed by the rise in U.S. Steel’s stock and modernization investment commitments, which is likely as financial markets often react positively to potential growth.
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.45 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.6 – confidence: 6)
Querying Cohere. (AI predicts: 0.4 – confidence: 7)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.4 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.4
Base rate: 0.4 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.09
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.36
Reverse Mellers: 0.43
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.49
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 5
Model value (not submitted): 0.4
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, Cohere, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The potential merger between U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel faces a multitude of challenges, primarily revolving around the need for a favorable CFIUS assessment by late December 2024 and obtaining political approvals amidst national security concerns. The historical base rate for similar international mergers passing through such scrutiny is approximately 40%, but current political dynamics may lower this probability. Positive signals such as Nippon Steel’s optimism and an increase in U.S. Steel’s stock reflect strong investor sentiment, yet regulatory and political hurdles, including possible opposition from President Biden and U.S. Republican lawmakers, make the outcome uncertain. The timeline for approvals is tight, adding further pressure on the process. While optimistic signs from the market and possible strategic negotiations could improve the merger’s chances, unexpected regulatory delays or unfavorable reviews remain significant threats to its completion.
Runtime: 107 seconds.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 35%, the same as yesterday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The recent suspension of dockworkers’ strikes in the U.S. follows a preliminary agreement on wages between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and the shipping industry. This tentative deal is set to last until January 15, 2025, after which a new contract must be negotiated, creating uncertainty about the possibility of renewed strikes. The initial strike, which began on October 1, 2024, centered on issues related to wages and automation, and analysts warn that while the current risk is considered minimal, any prolonged strike in the future could significantly impact the supply chain and lead to economic disruptions. Both parties are continuing negotiations, but the potential for further labor stoppages exists if a satisfactory contract is not reached.”
Fact-checking news summary: Based on the summary provided, here is a list of specific facts, their correctness, and their relevance to the outcome (probability of a strike in Q1 2025):
1. **Fact:** There was a recent suspension of dockworkers’ strikes in the U.S.
– **Correctness:** True.
– **Relevance:** True. This is relevant because it indicates the current status of labor actions and sets the context for potential future strikes.
2. **Fact:** A preliminary agreement on wages was reached between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and the shipping industry.
– **Correctness:** True.
– **Relevance:** True. This is relevant as it directly affects the potential for strikes; resolving wage issues can mitigate risk temporarily.
3. **Fact:** The tentative deal on wages will last until January 15, 2025.
– **Correctness:** True.
– **Relevance:** True. The expiration of this agreement is closely linked to the likelihood of future strikes and is central to determining the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
4. **Fact:** A new contract must be negotiated after January 15, 2025, creating uncertainty about potential strikes.
– **Correctness:** True.
– **Relevance:** True. This fact is directly related to the potential for strikes as it specifies the timeframe for potential disruptions.
5. **Fact:** The initial strike began on October 1, 2024, and centered on wages and automation.
– **Correctness:** True.
– **Relevance:** True. Understanding the issues at the heart of the dispute is crucial to assessing future risk.
6. **Fact:** Analysts warn that any prolonged strike in the future could significantly impact the supply chain and lead to economic disruptions.
– **Correctness:** True.
– **Relevance:** True. The impact of potential strikes is relevant to assessing the seriousness and consequences of labor disruptions.
7. **Fact:** Both parties (ILWU and the shipping industry) are continuing negotiations.
– **Correctness:** True.
– **Relevance:** True. Ongoing negotiations are central to determining the likelihood of a strike, as a successful negotiation could prevent a strike.
8. **Fact:** There is potential for further labor stoppages if a satisfactory contract is not reached.
– **Correctness:** True.
– **Relevance:** True. This is directly relevant as it affects the prediction of strike probability in Q1 2025.
All the facts from the summary are correct and relevant to the original question about the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Fact-checked summary: The probability of a strike in Q1 2025 is influenced by several key factors. Recently, dockworkers’ strikes in the U.S. were suspended, indicating a current pause in labor actions, which is a positive sign for stability. A preliminary agreement on wages was reached between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and the shipping industry, temporarily mitigating strike risks by addressing wage disputes. However, this tentative deal will expire on January 15, 2025, when a new contract must be negotiated, creating a period of uncertainty for potential strikes. The initial strike began on October 1, 2024, focusing on wages and automation, highlighting ongoing contentious issues. Continuous negotiations are underway between the ILWU and the shipping industry, and both parties must reach a satisfactory contract to avoid further labor stoppages. Analysts caution that any prolonged strike could severely impact the supply chain and lead to economic disruptions, emphasizing the need for successful negotiations to prevent such outcomes.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.4. The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate of 0.4 reflects the period of uncertainty as the current agreement expires on January 15, 2025, and the necessity for a new contract. This follows a resumed pause in labor actions due to the recent preliminary wage agreement, indicating a moderate probability of ongoing labor peace. Historically, labor disputes in similar sectors have a mixed track record of resolutions before deadlines, which suggests nearly even odds but skewed slightly towards resolution due to the potentially serious economic impacts of a prolonged strike.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate: Potential divergences from the base rate could arise if negotiations advance more positively than expected, or if external pressures such as government intervention or public opinion pressure for resolution occur. Conversely, if unresolved issues around automation escalate in complexity or if unexpected political or economic changes occur, the likelihood of a strike may increase beyond the estimated base rate.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The ILWU and shipping industry must fail to reach a satisfactory contract agreement by January 15, 2025. (Possible likelihood)
– Negotiations must either stall or break down entirely without resolution. (Highly uncertain)
– There must be no effective intervention from mediators or government agencies to prevent a strike. (Unlikely but possible)
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 5)
Querying Cohere… (Error: Cohere is not returning an array)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.35
Base rate: 0.4 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0
Confidence: 5.5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.29
Reverse Mellers: 0.4
Theory of Mind: 0.45 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.001
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.35
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The prediction of labor peace or a potential strike in the shipping industry is influenced by several factors. Despite a recent wage agreement and a temporary suspension of strikes, uncertainty looms due to the expiration of this agreement on January 15, 2025, and unresolved issues like automation. Historical trends indicate that severe economic impacts often incentivize resolutions before or shortly after deadlines, contributing to a moderate chance of avoiding prolonged disputes. Although there’s a willingness to negotiate, complexities surrounding key topics such as automation, potential government intervention, and external pressures could significantly alter the course of negotiations. Unforeseen positive developments or increased complexities could sway outcomes unpredictably, highlighting the flexible nature of labor disputes and negotiations.
Runtime: 131 seconds.
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Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
