What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 32%, up from Friday’s 30%.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The anticipated merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel is reportedly facing delays, with an official announcement unlikely before January 21, 2025, due to ongoing political and regulatory challenges. The Committee
on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is reviewing the merger and plans to provide a recommendation to the White House after the US presidential election on November 5, 2024. Both presidential candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, have voiced concerns about the merger, contributing to the uncertainty. Additionally, opposition from the United Steelworkers Union could further complicate the approval process. These factors collectively suggest a postponement of any official merger announcement until after the election cycle.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts stated in the summary, along with their verification status and relevance to the outcome:
1. **Fact**: The merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel is reportedly facing delays.
– **Correct**: True (Based on the information provided in the summary)
– **Relevant to outcome**: True (Delays directly affect the timing of the announcement)
2. **Fact**: An official announcement of the merger is unlikely before January 21, 2025.
– **Correct**: True (This aligns with the summary’s information about delays)
– **Relevant to outcome**: True (This directly answers the original question about the timing of the announcement)
3. **Fact**: The merger is facing ongoing political and regulatory challenges.
– **Correct**: True (The summary mentions these challenges as reasons for the delay)
– **Relevant to outcome**: True (Political and regulatory challenges are central to the delay in announcement)
4. **Fact**: The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is reviewing the merger.
– **Correct**: True (CFIUS involvement is stated in the summary)
– **Relevant to outcome**: True (CFIUS review is a regulatory hurdle affecting the timeline)
5. **Fact**: CFIUS plans to provide a recommendation to the White House after the US presidential election on November 5, 2024.
– **Correct**: True (According to the summary, this timeline is specified)
– **Relevant to outcome**: True (The timing of the CFIUS recommendation impacts the announcement date)
6. **Fact**: Both presidential candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, have voiced concerns about the merger.
– **Correct**: True (The summary states that both candidates have expressed concerns)
– **Relevant to outcome**: True (Candidates’ concerns could influence regulatory and political decisions, affecting the timing)
7. **Fact**: Opposition from the United Steelworkers Union could further complicate the approval process.
– **Correct**: True (The summary mentions potential union opposition)
– **Relevant to outcome**: True (Union opposition could delay or affect approval)
8. **Fact**: These factors suggest a postponement of any official merger announcement until after the election cycle.
– **Correct**: True (The summary concludes with this assessment)
– **Relevant to outcome**: True (The conclusion ties directly to the timing of the announcement)
Overall, the facts presented in the summary are all corroborated and relevant to understanding the timing and likelihood of the merger announcement occurring before January 21, 2025.
Fact-checked summary:
The merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel is experiencing delays due to ongoing political and regulatory challenges. An official announcement is unlikely before January 21, 2025, as the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is currently reviewing the merger and plans to provide a recommendation to the White House only after the US presidential election on November 5, 2024. Both presidential candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, have voiced concerns about the merger, which could further influence regulatory and political decisions. Additionally, opposition from the United Steelworkers Union may complicate the approval process. These factors suggest that the merger announcement is expected to be postponed until after the election cycle.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– CFIUS completes its review and provides a recommendation to the White House that does not obstruct the merger. (Low probability due to political and regulatory challenges)
– The next US President, whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, decides not to oppose the merger based on CFIUS’s recommendation. (Moderate probability given both candidates have expressed concerns)
– The opposition from the United Steelworkers Union is resolved or determined not to significantly impact the merger approval. (Low to moderate probability considering the union’s influence)
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.18
Base rate: 0.2 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.03
Confidence: 5.5
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.06
Reverse Mellers: 0.32
Theory of Mind: 0.3 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.84
Close Type: C (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.32
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The consensus from the various AI summaries suggests that the merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel is likely to be delayed due to significant political and regulatory challenges. Key factors influencing this prediction include the ongoing review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), which is expected to extend beyond the US presidential election, concerns expressed by both presidential candidates, and opposition from the United Steelworkers Union. While there is potential for quicker resolution if CFIUS expedites its review, if the incoming president supports the merger, or if the union’s opposition is swiftly addressed, these are considered low-probability scenarios given the tight timeline and complex nature of the merger approval process. Historical evidence of prolonged scrutiny for such international mergers further supports the expectation of delays.
Runtime: 105 seconds.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 53%, down from Friday’s 55%.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Recent reports suggest that the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and the US Maritime Alliance have reached a preliminary agreement to suspend the ongoing dockworkers’ strike until January 15, 2025. This suspension allows both parties the opportunity to negotiate a new six-year contract, focusing on contentious issues such as wages and automation. Although the current agreement prevents immediate disruptions, unresolved issues remain, particularly concerning automation, which may lead to potential tensions. If negotiations don’t adequately address the union’s concerns by the specified deadline, there remains a possibility of a strike occurring in the first quarter of 2025. As the situation develops, the outcomes of these discussions will be critical in determining the likelihood of future labor actions.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, along with their checks for accuracy and relevance:
1. **Fact: The International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and the US Maritime Alliance have reached a preliminary agreement to suspend the ongoing dockworkers’ strike until January 15, 2025.**
– **Correct**: True. The summary states this agreement explicitly.
– **Relevant to Outcome**: True. The suspension of the strike and the return to negotiations are directly relevant to assessing the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
2. **Fact: The suspension of the strike allows both parties to negotiate a new six-year contract.**
– **Correct**: True. The summary mentions a negotiation for a six-year contract.
– **Relevant to Outcome**: True. The success of these negotiations is crucial in determining the likelihood of future strikes.
3. **Fact: The main contentious issues in the negotiations are wages and automation.**
– **Correct**: True. The summary highlights wages and automation as key issues.
– **Relevant to Outcome**: True. Since these are contentious issues, their resolution or lack thereof will impact the probability of a strike.
4. **Fact: There are unresolved issues regarding automation that may lead to potential tensions.**
– **Correct**: True. The summary explicitly mentions unresolved issues about automation likely leading to tensions.
– **Relevant to Outcome**: True. Unresolved tensions, especially concerning automation, directly influence the risk of a strike.
5. **Fact: A strike might occur in Q1 2025 if negotiations don’t address the union’s concerns by January 15, 2025.**
– **Correct**: True. The summary indicates that if concerns aren’t addressed, a strike may occur in Q1 2025.
– **Relevant to Outcome**: True. The likelihood of a strike hinges on whether concerns are resolved by the deadline.
6. **Fact: The outcomes of the discussions will be critical in determining the likelihood of future labor actions.**
– **Correct**: True. The summary accurately states that the discussions’ outcomes are critical to future labor actions.
– **Relevant to Outcome**: True. The resolution of the discussions directly affects the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
All listed facts are correct and relevant to the outcome, as they pertain to the underlying issues and potential for a strike in the specified time frame.
Fact-checked summary:
The International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and the US Maritime Alliance have agreed to suspend the ongoing dockworkers’ strike until January 15, 2025, allowing both parties to negotiate a new six-year contract. The negotiations will focus on key contentious issues such as wages and automation. Unresolved tensions regarding automation may lead to potential disputes, and if the union’s concerns are not addressed by January 15, 2025, a strike may occur in Q1 2025. Therefore, the outcomes of these discussions are critical to determining the likelihood of future labor actions, including a possible strike.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The ILWU and the US Maritime Alliance fail to reach an agreement on the new six-year contract by January 15, 2025. (High likelihood)
– Key contentious issues such as wages and automation remain unresolved. (Moderate likelihood)
– The union’s concerns regarding automation are not adequately addressed by the end of the negotiation period. (Moderate likelihood)
– The ILWU membership votes to proceed with a strike if their demands are not met. (Moderate likelihood)
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.55 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.55 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.55 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)
Median from LLMs: 0.55
Base rate: 0.4 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.09
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.59
Reverse Mellers: 0.53
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.04
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.53
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The AIs collectively assess the ongoing negotiations between the ILWU and the US Maritime Alliance, focusing on the unresolved issues of wages and automation in the potential for a dockworkers’ strike in Q1 2025. While the recent agreement to suspend the strike and a significant wage increase offer indicate progress and a willingness to negotiate, historical patterns and the persistence of contentious issues, such as automation, suggest a moderate likelihood of a strike if no resolution is reached by January 15. External influences, including government intervention and economic pressures, could either encourage a more cooperative resolution or contribute to a miscalculation of strike probabilities, as unions have shown readiness to protect jobs against automation. However, both parties’ effort to avoid disruptions, especially amid political and economic considerations, might lead to a compromise that averts a strike.
Runtime: 84 seconds.
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Bots vs Staff Forecasts
BestWorld’s staff of Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel are forecasting the US Steel/Nippon Steel Merger in competition with Jeremy’s Multri-AI Oracle. Their version has two sub-questions:
(1) Will the US Steel / Nippon Steel merger be approved by the White House before Jan. 21. 2025?” Brian’s latest forecast is 80%; Carolyn’s is 70%. Michael’s is 35%.
(2) If yes, when will US Steel investors relations announce the final outcome of the acquisition with Nippon Steel?
a. Before November 5, 2024
b. Between November 6 and December 31, 2024
c. January 1 to 20, 2024
d. After January 21, 2024
Brian’s latest forecasts are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Carolyn’s are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
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Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median from the bestworldbots: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
