What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle is forecasting 20%, down from 25% yesterday. This contrasts with our staff forecasts, averaging 72.5%.
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Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle.
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Question: What’s the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Obtaining outside newsfeed.
Summarizing outside newsfeed.
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 6)
Querying Cohere (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 4)
Median from LLMs: 0.20 (20%)
Base rate: 0.2 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.03
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.08
Reverse Mellers: 0.33
Beta Distribution: 0.48
# LLM responses: 5
Model value (not submitted): 0.2
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, Cohere, OpenAI.
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel is fraught with challenges, primarily stemming from national security concerns expressed by the Biden administration. The review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has been prolonged, pushing the final decision beyond the upcoming presidential election, compounded by political opposition, particularly from President Biden and some Democratic leaders. This political and regulatory backdrop implies a low probability of the merger being finalized before January 21, 2025. However, the prediction could change if national security issues are resolved more swiftly, political dynamics shift in favor of the merger, or internal corporate adjustments are made to expedite the process.
Runtime: 157 seconds.
Bestworldbot News
The scoring of the Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Competition has concluded. Bestworldbot is #53 out of 55 competitors. A likely explanation for bestworldbot’s huge fall on the leaderboard from #17 on Sept. 10 is that we tried extremizing its forecasts. With most human forecasters, extremizing is usually effective. However, we now believe that extremizing made bestworldbot worse. Oh, well, that’s research, some things work, some don’t.
The Human Team
BestWorld’s staff of Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel also now are forecasting the US Steel/Nippon Steel Merger. Their version has two sub-questions:
(1) Will the US Steel / Nippon Steel merger be approved by the White House before Jan. 21. 2025?” Brian’s latest forecast is 66%; Carolyn’s is 70%.
(2) If yes, when will US Steel investors relations announce the final outcome of the acquisition with Nippon Steel?
a. Before November 5, 2024
b. Between November 6 and December 31, 2024
c. January 1 to 20, 2024
d. After January 21, 2024
Brian’s latest forecasts are 2%, 50%, 28%, and 20%.
Carolyn’s are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Below are their forecasting spreadsheets.
Bots vs Staff Forecasts
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More about our previous staff vs bot competition here.
Our bots vs humans experiments
Our concluded FED rate increase competition.
All our current bot projects.