What’s the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 20%, down from yesterday’s 33%, but still up from the day before that of 15%.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The proposed $14.9 billion merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel is facing significant uncertainty primarily due to political and regulatory challenges. The Biden administration has expressed intentions to block the merger over national security concerns, influenced by pressure from labor unions and other political stakeholders. In response, Nippon Steel is intensifying lobbying efforts, reportedly spending $1.3 million to sway decisions in Washington. The merger is currently under review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), though no definitive timeline for a decision has been provided. The looming possibility of government blockage has also led to a nearly 20% drop in US Steel’s stock price. With these complications, the likelihood of finalizing the merger by January 21, 2025, remains low, leaving the situation dependent on the outcomes of ongoing political and regulatory deliberations.”
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– CFIUS approves the merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel despite national security concerns.
– The Biden administration does not block the merger, either due to successful lobbying or other political factors.
– Political stakeholders and labor unions reduce pressure against the merger.
– The regulatory challenges are resolved in favor of the merger being compliant with US laws by January 21, 2025.
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.3 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 6)
Querying Cohere(Error: Cohere is not returning an array)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.2
Base rate: 0.2 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.05
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.08
Reverse Mellers: 0.33
Theory of Mind: 0.35 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.47
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.2
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI.
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The reasoning behind the prediction that the US Steel and Nippon Steel merger faces significant challenges centers around several key factors: strong political and regulatory opposition, particularly from the Biden administration, labor unions, and political stakeholders concerned about national security. The ongoing review by CFIUS lacks a definitive timeline, adding to the uncertainty. Furthermore, a notable drop in US Steel’s stock price reflects market skepticism regarding the merger’s success. Despite these hurdles, there is still a possibility that positive outcomes could alter the merger’s prospects. Successful lobbying by Nippon Steel could potentially influence political opinions or expedite regulatory approvals. Additionally, shifts in political dynamics or national security assessments might resolve current roadblocks and enable the merger to proceed by January 21, 2025.
Runtime: 142 seconds..
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 35%, down from yesterday’s 49%, but the same as the day before’s 35%.
Obtaining outside newsfeed.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“As of October 23, 2024, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) have reportedly reached a tentative agreement that includes a 62% salary increase for dockworkers over six years. This agreement has allowed workers to return to the ports temporarily, with plans to revisit unresolved issues, such as automation, during negotiations set for January 15, 2025. While the current agreement has paused immediate strike actions, there are concerns about future strikes if the ILA’s demands for stronger protections against automation-related job losses are not met. It should be noted that these developments and their potential implications require cautious appraisal, as the information may contain unsubstantiated claims.”
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.3 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude(Error: Claude is not returning an array)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)
Querying Cohere(Error: Cohere is not returning an array)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.35
Base rate: 0.35 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.02
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.25
Reverse Mellers: 0.42
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.5
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value (not submitted): 0.35
We queried Perplexity, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The tentative agreement between the ILA and USMX on salary increases has temporarily halted strike actions, signaling a willingness to negotiate and compromise. However, critical issues such as automation and job security remain unresolved, with discussions scheduled for January 15, 2025. These unresolved issues, particularly the ILA’s strong stance against automation, pose a moderate risk of a strike in Q1 2025. While the recent agreement suggests progress and reduced immediate tensions, the contentious nature of automation and job protection negotiations could lead to conflict if not addressed satisfactorily. A more collaborative approach has been indicated, but unforeseen economic pressures, inaccurate information, or impasses in negotiations could increase the likelihood of strike action.
Runtime: 293 seconds.
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Bots vs Staff Forecasts
BestWorld’s staff of Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel are forecasting the US Steel/Nippon Steel Merger in competition with Jeremy’s Multri-AI Oracle. Their version has two sub-questions:
(1) Will the US Steel / Nippon Steel merger be approved by the White House before Jan. 21. 2025?” Brian’s latest forecast is 80%; Carolyn’s is 70%. Michal’s is 35%.
(2) If yes, when will US Steel investors relations announce the final outcome of the acquisition with Nippon Steel?
a. Before November 5, 2024
b. Between November 6 and December 31, 2024
c. January 1 to 20, 2024
d. After January 21, 2024
Brian’s latest forecasts are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Carolyn’s are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Our spreadsheets below:
Our past forecasts below:
Oct. 23, 2024
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Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median from the bestworldbots: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
