What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle is forecasting 15%, down from 20% yesterday. This contrasts with our staff forecasts, averaging 72.5%.
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Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle.
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Question: What’s the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Obtaining outside newsfeed.
Summarizing outside newsfeed.
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 6)
Querying Cohere (AI predicts: 0.1 – confidence: 4)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 6)
Median from LLMs: 0.15 (15%)
Base rate: 0.2 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.03
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.08
Reverse Mellers: 0.33
Beta Distribution: 0.48
# LLM responses: 5
Model value (not submitted): 0.2
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, Cohere, OpenAI.
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel is encountering substantial political and regulatory challenges, primarily due to concerns expressed by the United Steelworkers union and the Biden administration regarding national security and supply chain implications. The White House, along with reports indicating the likely opposition by the Biden administration, suggest that the merger is improbable to proceed by the expected date of January 21, 2025. Additionally, the upcoming presidential elections may further complicate or delay regulatory approvals. Despite Nippon Steel’s efforts, such as proposing a national security agreement to alleviate concerns and garnering support from some government officials, the merger’s path remains fraught with obstacles. However, it is noted that a shift in the political landscape, changes in administration policies, or successfully negotiated compromises on national security could potentially alter the current opposition and expedite an announcement before the deadline.
Bestworldbot News
The newest version of bestworldbot now is making practice forecasts on the Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Competition. Click here to see its first four of them.
The Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Competition has concluded. Bestworldbot was #53 out of 55 competitors. A likely explanation for bestworldbot’s huge fall on the leaderboard from #17 on Sept. 10 is that we tried extremizing its forecasts. With most human forecasters, extremizing is usually effective. However, we now believe that extremizing made bestworldbot worse. Oh, well, that’s research, some things work, some don’t.

The Human Team
BestWorld’s staff of Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel also now are forecasting the US Steel/Nippon Steel Merger. Their version has two sub-questions:
(1) Will the US Steel / Nippon Steel merger be approved by the White House before Jan. 21. 2025?” Brian’s latest forecast is 66%; Carolyn’s is 70%.
(2) If yes, when will US Steel investors relations announce the final outcome of the acquisition with Nippon Steel?
a. Before November 5, 2024
b. Between November 6 and December 31, 2024
c. January 1 to 20, 2024
d. After January 21, 2024
Brian’s latest forecasts are 2%, 50%, 28%, and 20%.
Carolyn’s are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Below are their forecasting spreadsheets.


Bots vs Staff Forecasts
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More about our previous staff vs bot competition here.
Our bots vs humans experiments
Our concluded FED rate increase competition.
All our current bot projects.