What’s the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
===============================
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle.
===============================
What is your question? What’s the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Obtaining outside newsfeed.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“As of October 14, 2024, the proposed $14.9 billion merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel is encountering significant obstacles. President Joe Biden is reportedly expected to block the merger over national security concerns, a move that could be officially announced soon. Additionally, the United Steelworkers union has expressed opposition, citing potential adverse effects on employment and the broader steel industry. With regulatory approval still pending and political dynamics adding complexity, the likelihood of a resolution before January 21, 2025, appears uncertain. The situation remains fluid as stakeholders await further developments.”
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.3 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.3 – confidence: 6)
Querying Cohere (AI predicts: 0.3 – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.3
Base rate: 0.15 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.06
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.18
Reverse Mellers: 0.4
Theory of Mind: 0.4 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.02
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 5
Model value (not submitted): 0.18
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, Cohere, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The proposed merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel is facing significant hurdles primarily due to national security concerns expressed by President Joe Biden and opposition from the United Steelworkers union. Despite the merger receiving non-US regulatory approvals and significant shareholder support, pending US regulatory approval and the complex political dynamics surrounding the merger add to the uncertainty. The strategic importance of the steel industry, coupled with these challenges, makes the likelihood of the merger proceeding before January 21, 2025, appear uncertain. However, there is a possibility that if the involved companies can adequately address these concerns, particularly national security and union issues, or if the political context shifts favorably, the merger could still proceed on an expedited timeline.
Runtime: 96 seconds.
Bestworldbot News
This week bestworldbot continues to make practice forecasts on the Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament. Click here to see them.
The Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Competition has concluded. Bestworldbot was #53 out of 55 competitors. A likely explanation for bestworldbot’s huge fall on the leaderboard from #17 on Sept. 10 is that we tried extremizing its forecasts. With most human forecasters, extremizing is usually effective. However, we now believe that extremizing made bestworldbot worse. Oh, well, that’s research, some things work, some don’t.

Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025?
Today for the first time Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle is forecasting the dockworkers’ strike question.
===============================
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle.
===============================
What is your question? Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues. As the dock workers have only walked out once since 1977, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Do you have any other information you wish to pass along to assist in answering? (Hit Enter to skip)
ID: N/A
Obtaining outside newsfeed.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The recent news regarding the dockworkers indicates that a tentative agreement has been reached between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) following a three-day strike. This agreement reportedly includes a significant 62% wage increase over six years, allowing dockworkers to resume their duties. However, the agreement also leaves room for further negotiations on unresolved issues, notably automation, which are set to be revisited by January 15, 2025. Historically, strikes among dockworkers have been rare, but due to lingering concerns about automation potentially affecting job security, tensions remain. If these issues are not sufficiently addressed in upcoming talks, the risk of another strike during the first quarter of 2025 could rise. As such, while the wage adjustment seems to be a temporary resolution, the threat of future labor disruptions underlines ongoing uncertainties in labor relations at U.S. ports.”
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.3 – confidence: 7)
Querying Cohere(Error: Cohere is not returning an array)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.28
Base rate: 0.25 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.07
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.15
Reverse Mellers: 0.38
Theory of Mind: 0.3 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.34
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.28
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The consensus is that the likelihood of a dockworker strike in Q1 2025 is moderate due to several factors. Historically, strikes among dockworkers are rare, with only one occurrence since 1977, which suggests a general reluctance to strike. A recent agreement that included a significant wage increase addresses a key concern, indicating a willingness to negotiate. However, crucial issues like automation remain unresolved and could cause tensions, especially since they are set to be renegotiated by January 15, 2025. External factors such as changes in the economic or political landscape could further influence the situation. While the recently concluded temporary agreement decreases the immediate risk of a strike, the potential for escalating labor action remains if these contentious issues are not adequately addressed in future talks.
Runtime: 281 seconds.
Bots vs Staff Forecasts
BestWorld’s staff of Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel are forecasting the US Steel/Nippon Steel Merger in competition with Jeremy’s Multri-AI Oracle. Their version has two sub-questions:
(1) Will the US Steel / Nippon Steel merger be approved by the White House before Jan. 21. 2025?” Brian’s latest forecast is 66%; Carolyn’s is 70%.
(2) If yes, when will US Steel investors relations announce the final outcome of the acquisition with Nippon Steel?
a. Before November 5, 2024
b. Between November 6 and December 31, 2024
c. January 1 to 20, 2024
d. After January 21, 2024
Brian’s latest forecasts are 2%, 50%, 28%, and 20%.
Carolyn’s are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Below are their forecasting spreadsheets.

If yes, when will US Steel’s investors relations announce the results?

Previous bots vs human forecasts:
Oct. 11, 2024
Oct. 10, 2024
Oct. 9, 2024
Oct. 8, 2024
Oct. 7, 2024
Oct. 3, 2024
Oct. 2, 2024
Oct. 1, 2024
Sept. 30, 2024
Sept. 27, 2024
Sept. 26, 2024
Sept. 25, 2024
Sept. 24, 2024
Sept. 23, 2024
Sept. 18, 2024
Sept. 17, 2024
Sept. 16, 2024
Sept. 13, 2024
Sept. 12, 2024
Sept. 11, 2024
Sept. 10, 2024
Sept. 9, 2024
Sept. 6, 2024
Sept. 5, 2024
Sept. 4, 2024
Sept. 3, 2024
Sept. 2, 2024
Aug. 30, 2024
Aug. 29, 2024
Aug. 28, 2024
Aug. 27, 2024
Aug. 26, 2024
Aug. 23, 2024
Aug. 22, 2024
Aug. 21, 2024
Aug. 20, 2024
Aug. 19, 2024
Aug. 16, 2024
Aug. 15, 2024
Aug. 14, 2024
Aug. 13, 2024
Aug. 12, 2024
Aug. 9, 2024
Aug. 8, 2024
Aug. 7, 2024
Aug. 6, 2024
Aug. 5. 2024
Aug. 2, 2024
Aug. 1, 2024
July 31, 2024
July 30, 2024
July 29, 2024
July 26, 2024
July 25, 2024
More about our previous staff vs bot competition here.
Our bots vs humans experiments
Our concluded FED rate increase competition.
All our current bot projects.