What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle is forecasting 15%, steady from 15% yesterday. This contrasts with our staff forecasts, averaging 72.5%.
Carolyn suspects that the Multi-AI Oracle is placing too much weight on news reports that both US presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris oppose the merger. By contrast, Brian and I are forecasting 66% and 70% respectively because Presidents of the US in theory can’t/shouldn’t overrule the process whereby this merger would be decided.
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Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle.
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Question: What’s the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Obtaining outside newsfeed.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“As of October 14, 2024, the merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel, valued at $14.9 billion, faces several challenges that may delay an official announcement before January 21, 2025. The deal is under intense regulatory scrutiny in the United States, with national security concerns possibly prompting the White House to block the acquisition. Additionally, the United Steelworkers union opposes the merger over job security and lack of consultation, further complicating the approval process. While the merger continues to undergo legal and regulatory reviews, the outcome of the upcoming presidential election may impact its future. These factors collectively suggest a low probability of the merger being finalized by the target date.”
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.4 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 7)
Querying Cohere (AI predicts: 0.1 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.15 (15%)
Base rate: 0.15 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.11
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.04
Reverse Mellers: 0.3
Theory of Mind: 0.25 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.43
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 5
Model value (not submitted): 0.15
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, Cohere, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The proposed merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel, valued at $14.9 billion, faces multiple challenges including significant regulatory scrutiny and national security concerns, primarily from the United States. The opposition is chiefly from the United Steelworkers union and various political factions, with the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) identifying potential security risks. While all non-US regulatory approvals have been secured, US authorities, particularly the Department of Justice and CFIUS, have yet to approve the deal. The opposition is further amplified by potential political implications of the upcoming presidential election, with both candidates expressing reservations about the merger due to national security and labor issues. However, the possibility of overcoming these hurdles remains, contingent on successful negotiations addressing union and national security concerns, potential political shifts post-election, and mounting support from shareholders who view the merger as beneficial to counteract Chinese dominance in the steel industry. There is also optimism that the regulatory review process could proceed faster than anticipated, providing a window for the merger to be completed before the January 21, 2025 deadline.
Runtime: 124 seconds.
Bestworldbot News
Today scored forecasting begins for a prize pool of $30,000 USD in the Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament. Last week, bestworldbot made practice forecasts. Click here to see its first four practice questions.
The Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Competition has concluded. Bestworldbot was #53 out of 55 competitors. A likely explanation for bestworldbot’s huge fall on the leaderboard from #17 on Sept. 10 is that we tried extremizing its forecasts. With most human forecasters, extremizing is usually effective. However, we now believe that extremizing made bestworldbot worse. Oh, well, that’s research, some things work, some don’t.
The Human Team
BestWorld’s staff of Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel are forecasting the US Steel/Nippon Steel Merger in competition with Jeremy’s Multri-AI Oracle. Their version has two sub-questions:
(1) Will the US Steel / Nippon Steel merger be approved by the White House before Jan. 21. 2025?” Brian’s latest forecast is 66%; Carolyn’s is 70%.
(2) If yes, when will US Steel investors relations announce the final outcome of the acquisition with Nippon Steel?
a. Before November 5, 2024
b. Between November 6 and December 31, 2024
c. January 1 to 20, 2024
d. After January 21, 2024
Brian’s latest forecasts are 2%, 50%, 28%, and 20%.
Carolyn’s are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Below are their forecasting spreadsheets.
Bots vs Staff Forecasts
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More about our previous staff vs bot competition here.
Our bots vs humans experiments
Our concluded FED rate increase competition.
All our current bot projects.