What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 20%, down from yesterday’s 32%.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The potential $14.9 billion merger between U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel remains uncertain amid plans by the Biden Administration to block the deal over national security concerns. This decision has provoked opposition from various stakeholders, including the United Steelworkers union, which fears negative impacts on jobs and wages. The merger aims to create the third-largest steel company globally, but has not yet received final U.S. regulatory approval, making the timeline for an official announcement unclear. It should be noted that the newsfeed may contain unsubstantiated information and should be interpreted cautiously.”
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.2
Base rate: 0.2 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.02
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.08
Reverse Mellers: 0.33
Theory of Mind: 0.3 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.49
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.2
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The potential merger between U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel faces significant obstacles, primarily due to national security concerns raised by the Biden Administration, opposition from stakeholders such as the United Steelworkers union, and the lack of final regulatory approval from the U.S. government. These issues create a low likelihood that the merger will be officially announced before January 21, 2025. Despite efforts by Nippon Steel to address these concerns, the current political and regulatory landscape makes it challenging to secure the necessary approvals within the specified timeframe. However, there remains a possibility that the prediction could be proven wrong if the companies involved effectively address the national security concerns, if there are significant changes in the political environment, or if the Biden Administration’s stance shifts due to economic pressures or geopolitical considerations.
Runtime: 54 seconds.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 55%, up from yesterday’s 54%.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“As of November 1, 2024, the situation regarding U.S. dockworkers is focused on a tentative agreement reached by the International Longshoremen’s Association, which includes a notable 62% wage increase over six years. This deal has temporarily postponed a potential strike until January 15, 2025, allowing further negotiations to address key issues such as automation, which the union argues threatens job security. Other unresolved matters also remain, and if further agreements are not achieved by the deadline, a strike in the first quarter of 2025 remains a strong possibility. The situation is being closely monitored, with significant implications for supply chains and the economy should the negotiations falter. Sources have cautioned that these developments, as reported, may include unverified information and should be interpreted carefully.”
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Failure to reach a final agreement by January 15, 2025, between the International Longshoremen’s Association and relevant parties, which is assessed as having a moderate likelihood.
– Increased union resistance towards automation implementations in negotiations, which is assessed as having a high likelihood.
– Inability to resolve other key unresolved issues during further negotiations, which is assessed as having a moderate likelihood.
– Heightened tensions or a breakdown in trust between negotiating parties, which is assessed as having a moderate likelihood.
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.55 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.6 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 7)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.6 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.6
Base rate: 0.4 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.04
Confidence: 5.5
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.67
Reverse Mellers: 0.55
Theory of Mind: 0.575 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.001
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.55
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The various predictions identify a moderate to high likelihood of a strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) if unresolved issues, particularly around automation, are not addressed by January 15, 2025. While a tentative agreement on a significant wage increase has temporarily eased tensions, the union’s strong opposition to automation and the historical pattern of protracted negotiations suggest a potential deadlock. The timing is tight, as renewed negotiations will coincide with the start of Q1 2025, leaving limited time for resolution. However, there is also the possibility that if negotiations are handled adeptly, such as addressing automation concerns effectively or external factors like economic conditions and political pressure encouraging compromise, an agreement could avert a strike. The existing wage agreement may have fostered goodwill, potentially smoothing negotiations, and the union might ultimately be willing to prioritize recent wage gains over automation disputes.
Runtime: 50 seconds.
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Bots vs Staff Forecasts
BestWorld’s staff of Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel are forecasting the US Steel/Nippon Steel Merger in competition with Jeremy’s Multri-AI Oracle. Their version has two sub-questions:
(1) Will the US Steel / Nippon Steel merger be approved by the White House before Jan. 21. 2025?” Brian’s latest forecast is 80%; Carolyn’s is 70%. Michael’s is 35%.
(2) If yes, when will US Steel investors relations announce the final outcome of the acquisition with Nippon Steel?
a. Before November 5, 2024
b. Between November 6 and December 31, 2024
c. January 1 to 20, 2024
d. After January 21, 2024
Brian’s latest forecasts are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Carolyn’s are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Our spreadsheets below:
Our past forecasts below:
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Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median from the bestworldbots: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
