What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 20%, down from yesterday’s 32%.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The potential merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel, valued at $14.9 billion, is currently facing significant hurdles due to opposition from the Biden Administration, which has expressed national security concerns. Additionally, the United Steelworkers union is against the merger, fearing its implications for jobs and the broader steel industry. These challenges suggest that the consolidation’s progress might be delayed, rendering any official announcement before January 21, 2025, uncertain. The situation remains fluid, and further developments are possible.”
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The Biden Administration resolves its national security concerns regarding the merger with sufficient assurances or modifications to the deal. (Possible)
– US Steel and Nippon Steel address the United Steelworkers union’s concerns to a satisfactory level, possibly through agreements or concessions that protect jobs and industry interests. (Unlikely)
– The legal and regulatory review processes are expedited without encountering insurmountable obstacles or additional delays. (Unlikely)
– There are no significant negative developments or opposition from other stakeholders that could halt or further delay the merger. (Uncertain)
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.3 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.18
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.06
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.06
Reverse Mellers: 0.32
Theory of Mind: 0.275 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.99
Close Type: C (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.32
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The prediction of a merger announcement between US Steel and Nippon Steel before January 21, 2025, faces significant obstacles, primarily due to the Biden Administration’s national security concerns and strong opposition from the United Steelworkers union. These issues, along with the complexity and potential delays in the regulatory review process, make a timely resolution challenging. Furthermore, the short timeframe adds pressure and reduces the likelihood of overcoming these hurdles. However, the prediction could change if the administration’s security concerns are resolved unexpectedly, the union’s opposition is mitigated, or if the legal processes are expedited in unforeseen ways, possibly through strategic negotiations or political shifts.
Runtime: 64 seconds.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 55%, up from yesterday’s 54%.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) has currently suspended their strike and will resume work until January 15, 2025, providing time for negotiations on a six-year contract with the US Maritime Alliance focusing on issues like salary and automation. Though an agreement has temporarily halted the strike, the likelihood of a future strike remains if these negotiations fail to meet the union’s demands by the deadline. Economic impacts, such as supply chain disruptions, could result if an agreement is not reached, highlighting ongoing concerns about the potential resumption of the strike in early 2025.”
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.6 – confidence: 7)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.6 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.6 – confidence: 7)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.6
Base rate: 0.35 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.11
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.67
Reverse Mellers: 0.55
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.01
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.55
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the US Maritime Alliance present a complex situation where salary increase agreements have temporarily paused a strike, allowing talks to resume on January 15, 2025. While there is progress in negotiations, significant issues such as automation remain unresolved, heightening the potential for conflict. Historically, unresolved contentious issues like automation can lead to strikes, and the set negotiation deadline could be a critical pressure point. However, the willingness to negotiate shown by both parties, coupled with economic and political pressures to avoid a strike, could motivate a resolution. Despite the potential for a strike in Q1 2025, successful agreements on critical issues might avert disruptive actions, as external pressures and incentives to maintain public perception play a significant role in influencing negotiations.
Runtime: 77 seconds.
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Bots vs Staff Forecasts
BestWorld’s staff of Brian LaBatte, Michael DeVault, and Carolyn Meinel are forecasting the US Steel/Nippon Steel Merger in competition with Jeremy’s Multri-AI Oracle. Their version has two sub-questions:
(1) Will the US Steel / Nippon Steel merger be approved by the White House before Jan. 21. 2025?” Brian’s latest forecast is 80%; Carolyn’s is 70%. Michal’s is 35%.
(2) If yes, when will US Steel investors relations announce the final outcome of the acquisition with Nippon Steel?
a. Before November 5, 2024
b. Between November 6 and December 31, 2024
c. January 1 to 20, 2024
d. After January 21, 2024
Brian’s latest forecasts are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Carolyn’s are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Our spreadsheets below:

Our past forecasts below:
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Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median from the bestworldbots: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).