Updates from BestWorld’s AI Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman of Oct. 25, 2024

What’s the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?

Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 37%, up from yesterday’s 20% and the day before that of 33%.  

Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:

“The proposed $14.9 billion merger between Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel is facing considerable controversy and opposition. The Biden administration has raised national security concerns, while the United Steelworkers union is worried about potential negative impacts on jobs and the steel industry. Nippon Steel is actively lobbying, having spent $1.3 million in recent months to address merger-related challenges. Despite the obstacles, U.S. Steel CEO David Burritt expresses confidence in the merger’s eventual success based on its merits. The final decision on the merger may be postponed until after the 2024 presidential election, contributing to the uncertainty surrounding its timeline.”

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:

– Resolution of national security concerns raised by the Biden administration regarding the merger.

– Addressing and alleviating the concerns of the United Steelworkers union about potential negative impacts on jobs and the steel industry.

– Successful lobbying efforts by Nippon Steel to gain support for the merger.

– Approval from relevant regulatory bodies within the U.S. government – Receipt of any necessary international approvals for the merger.

– Favorable economic conditions supporting the merger’s strategic goals.

– Continuation and strengthening of stakeholder confidence in the merger’s benefits.

Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (Error: Claude is not returning an array)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 5)
Querying Cohere (Error: Cohere is not returning an array)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 4)

Median from LLMs: 0.25
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)

SD: 0.06
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.12
Reverse Mellers: 0.37
Theory of Mind: 0.3 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.79
Close Type: C (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes) # LLM responses: 3
Model value (not submitted): 0.37

We queried Perplexity, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:

The proposed merger between Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel faces significant hurdles, primarily due to national security concerns from the Biden administration and opposition from the United Steelworkers union. Despite aggressive lobbying efforts by Nippon Steel and the optimism of U.S. Steel’s CEO, the merger must secure approvals from U.S. regulatory bodies and international entities, all amidst an uncertain political climate, particularly with the upcoming 2024 presidential election. While the chances of an official announcement before January 21, 2025, are considered low, the situation could change if Nippon Steel addresses the outstanding concerns swiftly and gains union support, coupled with expedited regulatory and political processes in their favor.

Runtime: 162 seconds.

Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.

Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 35%, same as from yesterday and the day before.

Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:

“As of October 23, 2024, a recent agreement between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) has tentatively concluded a dockworkers’ strike, with both parties agreeing to a 62% salary increase over six years. The agreement allows negotiations to continue on January 15, 2025, focusing particularly on automation and other unresolved issues, which could lead to potential tensions between the union’s emphasis on job security and employer interests in technological advancements. Although the strike has ended for now, there is uncertainty regarding the possibility of another strike in early 2025, contingent on the outcomes of these upcoming discussions. Historical patterns indicate that unresolved disputes, especially those impacting job security, could escalate and influence union sentiment negatively if satisfactory resolutions are not achieved.”

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:  

– Failure to resolve key issues, particularly automation, in the January 15, 2025 negotiations.

– Increased union dissatisfaction regarding job security and technological advancements.

– Breakdown of communication or negotiations between ILA and USMX.

– Lack of compromise on contentious issues such as automation and salary conditions.

Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.55 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)
Querying Cohere (Error: Cohere is not returning an array)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 5)

Median from LLMs: 0.35
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)

SD: 0.09
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.25
Reverse Mellers: 0.42
Theory of Mind: 0.45 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.27
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.35

We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:

The recent agreement between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) has temporarily alleviated strike tensions through a significant salary increase of 62% over six years and a short-term commitment to negotiate further on January 15, 2025. However, key unresolved issues, particularly concerning automation and job security, remain contentious and could reignite tensions if not adequately addressed. While there is a willingness from both parties to continue discussions, the potential for a strike in Q1 2025 exists due to historical patterns where unresolved disputes, especially those affecting job security, tend to escalate. External factors such as economic conditions and political pressures could further influence outcomes, and the union may feel empowered by recent successes to demand more concessions, indicating a moderate risk of strike action if negotiations fail to find satisfactory resolutions.

Runtime: 204 seconds.



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Bots vs Staff Forecasts

BestWorld’s staff of Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel are forecasting the US Steel/Nippon Steel Merger in competition with Jeremy’s Multri-AI Oracle. Their version has two sub-questions:

(1) Will the US Steel / Nippon Steel merger be approved by the White House before Jan. 21. 2025?” Brian’s latest forecast is 80%; Carolyn’s is 70%. Michal’s is 35%.

(2) If yes, when will US Steel investors relations announce the final outcome of the acquisition with Nippon Steel?
a. Before November 5, 2024
b. Between November 6 and December 31, 2024
c. January 1 to 20, 2024
d. After January 21, 2024

Brian’s latest forecasts are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.

Carolyn’s are  0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.

Our spreadsheets below:



Our past forecasts below:

Oct. 24, 2024
Oct. 23, 2024
Oct. 22, 2024
Oct. 21, 2024
Oct. 17, 2024
Oct. 16, 2024
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Oct. 15, 2024
Oct. 14, 2024
Oct. 11, 2024
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Oct. 3, 2024
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Oct. 1, 2024
Sept. 30, 2024
Sept. 27, 2024
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Aug. 1, 2024
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July 25, 202

Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports 

Median from the bestworldbots: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).

Author

  • She has written many books, magazine articles, and research papers. She currently is President and CEO of the nonprofit BestWorld, Inc. and is a professional forecaster of geopolitical events at the RAND Forecasting Initiative.

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