What’s the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 33%, up from yesterday’s 25%.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The proposed merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel is experiencing significant uncertainty due to the extended review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), which is now expected to continue until December 2024. This extension implies that a final decision may not be reached until after the 2024 presidential election, complicating the timeline for any official announcement. Despite these delays, Nippon Steel’s leadership has reaffirmed their commitment to the acquisition. However, due to the intricacies of the review process and the potential influence of the political climate, the chances of the merger being finalized before January 21, 2025, remain low. The situation is fluid and heavily depends on the outcomes of the ongoing CFIUS review and broader political developments.”
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) completes its review and issues a favorable decision by December 2024. (Low likelihood)
– The political climate remains stable or becomes favorable for the merger after the 2024 presidential election. (Uncertain likelihood)
– Nippon Steel and US Steel maintain their commitment to the merger and continue negotiations despite delays. (Moderate likelihood)
– No significant opposition emerges from other governmental or regulatory bodies during the extended review period. (Low likelihood)
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 6)
Querying Cohere (AI predicts: 0.3 – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.2
Base rate: 0.15 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.05
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.08
Reverse Mellers: 0.33
Theory of Mind: 0.3 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.15
Close Type: C (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 5
Model value (not submitted): 0.33
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, Cohere, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The prediction that the merger between Nippon Steel and US Steel will not be officially announced before January 21, 2025, hinges on several significant factors. Central to the prediction is the extended review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), expected to last until December 2024, which may delay the final decision past the 2024 presidential election. The complex and unpredictable nature of the review process, combined with the potential political influences from the election, pose substantial challenges. Historical scrutiny of similar international mergers suggests potential regulatory hurdles and delays, further reducing the likelihood of a timely announcement. Despite Nippon Steel’s commitment, the uncertain political climate and possible opposition from other regulatory bodies cast doubt on an earlier resolution. However, expedited CFIUS review, favorable political conditions post-election, and swift negotiations could enhance the chances of an earlier announcement, although these remain less likely under current projections.
Runtime: 149 seconds.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 45%, up from yesterday’s 55%.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“As of October 29, 2024, there are ongoing negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX) related to dockworkers’ conditions, with a temporary suspension of strikes agreed upon until January 15, 2025. This pause is intended to allow further negotiation on key issues such as automation and wage increases. However, there remains the potential for strike actions in the first quarter of 2025 if these discussions fail to reach a satisfactory conclusion. The primary focus is on ensuring job security and equitable pay, as automation continues to be a particularly divisive topic. The broader implications include potential supply chain disruptions and economic impacts, depending on the outcome of these negotiations. It is important to approach this situation with caution, considering the possibility of unverified information or speculative reporting.”
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Successful agreement reached between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX) before January 15, 2025. Even chance
– Resolution of key issues such as automation and wage increases to the satisfaction of both parties. About as likely as not.
– Ongoing communication and compromise between the negotiating parties without escalation to strike actions in the first quarter of 2025. About as likely as not
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.4 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.4 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.4 – confidence: 6)
Querying Cohere(Error: Cohere is not returning an array)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.4 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.4
Base rate: 0.5 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0
Confidence: 5.5
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.33
Reverse Mellers: 0.45
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.001
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.45
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The various predictions about a potential strike in Q1 2025 between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX) hinge on both progress and challenges in current negotiations. Both parties have agreed to return to the bargaining table on January 15, 2025, with a temporary strike suspension in place. Although an agreement on salary increases shows some willingness to negotiate, the unresolved issue of automation remains a major stumbling block. Historical patterns in labor negotiations and the limited timeframe before Q1 2025 contribute to strike concerns if a satisfactory resolution isn’t achieved. However, the predictions may be incorrect if further negotiation progress is made, considering external pressures or political intervention, which could encourage both parties to reach a comprehensive settlement to mitigate economic disruptions.
Runtime: 257 seconds.
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Bots vs Staff Forecasts
BestWorld’s staff of Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel are forecasting the US Steel/Nippon Steel Merger in competition with Jeremy’s Multri-AI Oracle. Their version has two sub-questions:
(1) Will the US Steel / Nippon Steel merger be approved by the White House before Jan. 21. 2025?” Brian’s latest forecast is 80%; Carolyn’s is 70%. Michal’s is 35%.
(2) If yes, when will US Steel investors relations announce the final outcome of the acquisition with Nippon Steel?
a. Before November 5, 2024
b. Between November 6 and December 31, 2024
c. January 1 to 20, 2024
d. After January 21, 2024
Brian’s latest forecasts are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Carolyn’s are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Our spreadsheets below:
Our past forecasts below:
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Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median from the bestworldbots: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
