What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 31%, down from yesterday’s 38%.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Reports on the potential merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel highlight notable uncertainty, primarily due to scrutiny from the Biden administration and the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). US Steel CEO David Burritt remains optimistic about the merger’s success, despite regulatory challenges, expressing confidence in the process. However, analysts and market observers suggest that while the merger could significantly influence US Steel’s market position, political factors and regulatory approval are likely to delay any announcement until after the November 2024 presidential election, with formal decisions potentially postponed until after January 21, 2025.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts stated in the summary along with their assessment:
1. **Fact**: There is notable uncertainty regarding the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger due to scrutiny from the Biden administration and the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS).
– **True/False**: True (It is reasonable to assume that any major merger involving a US company and a foreign company, particularly in the steel industry, would face scrutiny from CFIUS.)
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True (Regulatory scrutiny is highly relevant to the timing of the merger announcement.)
2. **Fact**: US Steel CEO David Burritt remains optimistic about the merger’s success.
– **True/False**: True (Executives typically express optimism in such situations unless stated otherwise.)
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True (The CEO’s confidence could influence investor and stakeholder perceptions, impacting the progression towards an official announcement.)
3. **Fact**: Analysts and market observers suggest that the merger could significantly influence US Steel’s market position.
– **True/False**: True (Mergers of large companies typically have a substantial impact on market position.)
– **Relevance to Outcome**: False (While the impact on market position is important, it does not directly relate to the timing of the merger announcement.)
4. **Fact**: Political factors and regulatory approval are likely to delay any announcement until after the November 2024 presidential election.
– **True/False**: True (It is a reasonable prediction given the role of political conditions in regulatory approval processes.)
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True (Such delays are relevant to the timing of when the merger might be announced.)
5. **Fact**: Formal decisions regarding the merger could be postponed until after January 21, 2025.
– **True/False**: True (This is also a plausible prediction based on the typical timelines for regulatory and political reviews.)
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True (The timeline for formal decisions is directly relevant to the probability of the announcement occurring before January 21, 2025.)
Overall, the relevant facts suggest that regulatory and political factors might delay the official announcement of the merger beyond January 21, 2025, reducing the probability of it being announced before then.
Fact-checked summary:
The probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025, appears to be reduced due to several factors. Notably, the merger faces scrutiny from the Biden administration and the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), which is a significant consideration in the timing of such announcements. Additionally, political factors and regulatory approval processes are likely to introduce delays, particularly with the potential for postponements until after the November 2024 presidential election. Consequently, formal decisions regarding the merger could realistically be postponed until after January 21, 2025. While US Steel CEO David Burritt remains optimistic about the merger’s success, this optimism does not significantly alter the likelihood of the announcement being made before the given date due to the aforementioned regulatory and political challenges.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.15
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate of 0.15 reflects the historically low probability of mergers, especially those involving foreign investment, overcoming regulatory and political hurdles quickly. Given the scrutiny from the Biden administration and CFIUS, the announcement timeline is likely to be extended. Historical data suggests that large-scale mergers often face extended approval times due to comprehensive review processes. Additionally, the political climate surrounding the imminent presidential election further decreases the chance of a rapid announcement. The optimism expressed by U.S. Steel’s CEO is not a strong enough factor to counteract these significant regulatory and political obstacles.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel address and satisfy all regulatory concerns raised by the Biden administration and CFIUS. (Unlikely)
– The merger receives necessary approvals from political bodies and regulatory agencies in a timely manner without significant delays. (Improbable)
– Political factors, including the outcome of the November 2024 presidential election, do not lead to a strategic delay in making the announcement. (Unlikely)
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 4)
Median from LLMs: 0.15
Base rate: 0.15 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.02
Confidence: 5.5
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.05
Reverse Mellers: 0.31
Theory of Mind: 0.3 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.48
Close Type: C (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.31
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The consensus among the AIs is that the likelihood of the US Steel and Nippon Steel merger being announced by January 21, 2025, is low due to regulatory and political challenges. The need for CFIUS approval, along with the Biden administration’s scrutiny of foreign ownership of strategic assets, poses significant hurdles that could delay the process. Furthermore, the political environment surrounding the November 2024 presidential election adds additional uncertainty and potential delays. However, some AIs suggest that the timeline could be accelerated if regulatory concerns have been addressed more swiftly behind the scenes, or if political pressures and economic incentives lead to a faster resolution. The commitment of Nippon Steel and potential strategic benefits of the merger could also play a role in pushing for a timely announcement, depending on the administration’s stance post-election.
Runtime: 77 seconds.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 44%, up from yesterday’s 43%.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The current situation involving dockworkers, represented by the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU), features significant developments as they enter into negotiations with the U.S. Maritime Alliance to avert a potential strike in early 2025. The ILWU has temporarily suspended its strike until January 15, 2025, allowing for discussions on a new contract, which reportedly includes preliminary agreements on wage increases. A key point of contention is the impact of automation on job security, with workers expressing concerns over losing jobs to new technologies. This marks the first large-scale dockworker strike in nearly 50 years, increasing the scrutiny on how these negotiations will address the union’s demands regarding automation, job security, and wages. If unresolved, the risk of a strike in Q1 2025 may rise, but successful negotiations could mitigate this possibility.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts stated in the summary, along with their correctness and relevance to the outcome:
1. **The ILWU is entering negotiations with the U.S. Maritime Alliance to avert a potential strike in early 2025.**
– Correctness: True. The ILWU is in negotiations to prevent a strike.
– Relevance: True. This directly pertains to the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
2. **The ILWU has temporarily suspended its strike until January 15, 2025.**
– Correctness: True. The summary mentions a temporary suspension.
– Relevance: True. This affects the likelihood and timing of a potential strike.
3. **There are preliminary agreements on wage increases.**
– Correctness: True. It is stated that the new contract reportedly includes wage increase agreements.
– Relevance: True. Wage agreements are relevant to the union’s satisfaction and potential strike avoidance.
4. **Job security concerns arise from the impact of automation.**
– Correctness: True. The summary highlights automation’s impact on job security as a key concern.
– Relevance: True. Automation’s impact on job security is a central issue in the negotiations.
5. **This marks the first large-scale dockworker strike in nearly 50 years.**
– Correctness: False. The summary incorrectly ascribes the current situation as the first large-scale strike.
– Relevance: False. Whether this is the first strike in 50 years does not affect the probability of a new strike.
6. **Automation, job security, and wages are the union’s demands in the negotiations.**
– Correctness: True. These are stated as key points in negotiations.
– Relevance: True. These demands are central to the negotiation’s success and the strike probability.
7. **If unresolved, the risk of a strike in Q1 2025 may rise.**
– Correctness: True. The summary logically infers the risk increase if issues remain unresolved.
– Relevance: True. This directly addresses the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Fact-checked summary:
The International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) is entering negotiations with the U.S. Maritime Alliance in an effort to avert a potential strike in early 2025. The union has temporarily suspended its strike until January 15, 2025, following preliminary agreements on wage increases, which are relevant to avoiding a strike. Key issues in the negotiations include automation, which raises job security concerns, along with demands centered on job security, automation, and wages. If these issues remain unresolved, the risk of a strike in the first quarter of 2025 may increase.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.65
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate of 0.65 is influenced by several factors. Historically, labor negotiations, particularly those involving major unions like the ILWU, often result in agreements rather than strikes, especially when significant progress, such as preliminary agreements on wage increases, has been made. The fact that negotiations have reached preliminary wage agreements and the strike has been suspended until mid-January suggest a strong predisposition towards resolution. However, automation and job security are complex issues that can be contentious, contributing uncertainty to the negotiations. Similar historical negotiations have resolved favorably when initial agreements are in place, though challenges like automation can introduce difficulties, making the resolution not a certainty but more likely than not.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The ILWU and the U.S. Maritime Alliance reach a comprehensive agreement on wage increases. (Very Likely)
– The ILWU and the U.S. Maritime Alliance resolve concerns about automation without job losses. (Possible)
– Both parties agree on measures that secure long-term job security for union members. (Likely)
– The ILWU membership votes to approve the negotiated agreement, avoiding a strike. (Likely)
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.4 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.45 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.38
Base rate: 0.65 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.04
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.3
Reverse Mellers: 0.44
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 1
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to
extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.44
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The consensus among the AI predictions is that while a preliminary agreement on wage increases between the ILWU and the U.S. Maritime Alliance suggests progress and goodwill, the unresolved issues of
automation and job security pose a significant risk for a strike in Q1 2025. Historically, such issues have been complex and contentious, often leading to prolonged disputes. The temporary suspension of the strike until January 15, 2025, allows for further negotiations but also highlights the urgency for resolving these issues to avoid a strike. However, predictions could be overly pessimistic if negotiations proceed more smoothly than anticipated, spurred by goodwill from wage agreements, potential new technological solutions, or economic pressures encouraging compromise. The outcome is contingent upon achieving a comprehensive negotiation of the unresolved issues and obtaining ILWU membership approval.
Runtime: 74 seconds.
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Bots vs Staff Forecasts
BestWorld’s staff of Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel are forecasting the US Steel/Nippon Steel Merger in competition with Jeremy’s Multri-AI Oracle. Their version has two sub-questions:
(1) Will the US Steel / Nippon Steel merger be approved by the White House before Jan. 21. 2025?” Brian’s latest forecast is 80%; Carolyn’s is 70%. Michael’s is 35%.
(2) If yes, when will US Steel investors relations announce the final outcome of the acquisition with Nippon Steel?
a. Before November 5, 2024
b. Between November 6 and December 31, 2024
c. January 1 to 20, 2024
d. After January 21, 2024
Brian’s latest forecasts are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Carolyn’s are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
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Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median from the bestworldbots: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
