What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 38%, up from yesterday’s 32%.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The potential merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel is currently facing significant uncertainty, largely due to regulatory scrutiny and political opposition. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is examining the merger, which might affect its timeline, while the Biden administration has raised concerns that could delay decisions until after the November 2024 presidential election. Despite these hurdles, US Steel CEO David Burritt is optimistic about the merger’s success, emphasizing its merits. However, analysts predict that a decision may be postponed until after the election, suggesting that an official announcement might not occur before January 21, 2025.”
Fact-checking news summary:
1. **Fact**: The potential merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel is currently facing significant uncertainty due to regulatory scrutiny.
– **Correct**: True
– **Relevant to outcome**: True
2. **Fact**: The potential merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel is currently facing political opposition.
– **Correct**: True
– **Relevant to outcome**: True
3. **Fact**: The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is examining the merger.
– **Correct**: True
– **Relevant to outcome**: True
4. **Fact**: The CFIUS examination might affect the timeline of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger.
– **Correct**: True
– **Relevant to outcome**: True
5. **Fact**: The Biden administration has raised concerns that could delay decisions until after the November 2024 presidential election.
– **Correct**: True
– **Relevant to outcome**: True
6. **Fact**: US Steel CEO David Burritt is optimistic about the merger’s success and emphasizes its merits.
– **Correct**: True
– **Relevant to outcome**: True
7. **Fact**: Analysts predict that a decision about the merger may be postponed until after the November 2024 election.
– **Correct**: True
– **Relevant to outcome**: True
8. **Fact**: Analysts suggest that an official announcement of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger might not occur before January 21, 2025.
– **Correct**: True
– **Relevant to outcome**: True
Fact-checked summary:
The potential merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel is subject to significant uncertainty due to regulatory scrutiny and political opposition. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is examining the merger, and this examination might affect the timeline. Moreover, concerns raised by the Biden administration could delay decisions until after the November 2024 presidential election. Analysts speculate that the official announcement of the merger might not occur before January 21, 2025. Despite these challenges, US Steel CEO David Burritt remains optimistic about the merger’s success.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Regulatory approval from CFIUS is granted for the merger, which has a likelihood of ‘unlikely’ given the scrutiny mentioned.
– No significant legal or political obstacles arise from the Biden administration or other political entities, with a likelihood of ‘uncertain’, due to the current concerns and opposition.
– Both US Steel and Nippon Steel maintain their commitment to the merger through continued negotiations, assessed as ‘likely’ since US Steel’s CEO is optimistic about the success.
– A favorable determination from antitrust regulators that allows the merger to proceed, which is ‘uncertain’ based on typical scrutiny in the steel industry.
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.3 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.28
Base rate: 0.25 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.07
Confidence: 5.5
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.15
Reverse Mellers: 0.38
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.34
Close Type: C (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.38
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The potential merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel faces significant regulatory and political obstacles, particularly scrutiny from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) and opposition from the Biden administration. These challenges, compounded by antitrust review and possible legal hindrances, reduce the likelihood of an announcement before January 21, 2025. Political dynamics associated with the upcoming presidential election may also influence regulatory decision-making, potentially causing delays. While US Steel’s CEO has expressed optimism, this could be standard corporate optimism rather than a reflection of actual progress, though some argue that accelerated negotiations or diminishing opposition could lead to quicker resolution. Ultimately, the outcome remains uncertain, influenced by unpredictable political and regulatory shifts.
Runtime: 75 seconds.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 43%, down from yesterday’s 53%.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“As of November 4, 2024, significant developments have emerged in the ongoing dockworkers’ negotiations that might affect the likelihood of a strike in the first quarter of 2025. The International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) has decided to suspend its strike until January 15, 2025, permitting both parties—the union and port operators—to return to negotiations. Critical issues to be discussed include salary increases, concerns about automation, and working conditions. The possibility of a strike hinges on the outcomes of these talks and how the union addresses unresolved issues, particularly regarding automation. Analysts caution that a failure in negotiations could lead to substantial disruptions in supply chains and economic ramifications. However, while the situation is temporarily stable, the potential for a strike remains if satisfactory agreements are not reached.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Below is a list of specific facts from the summary, along with their correctness and relevance to the probability of a strike in Q1 2025:
1. **Fact:** The dockworkers’ negotiations might affect the likelihood of a strike in the first quarter of 2025.
– Correctness: True
– Relevance: True
2. **Fact:** The International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) has decided to suspend its strike until January 15, 2025.
– Correctness: True (Assuming good faith in the summary, this fact is correct as of the date given.)
– Relevance: True
3. **Fact:** Both parties—the union and port operators—will return to negotiations on January 15, 2025.
– Correctness: True
– Relevance: True
4. **Fact:** Critical issues to be discussed include salary increases, concerns about automation, and working conditions.
– Correctness: True
– Relevance: True
5. **Fact:** The possibility of a strike hinges on the outcomes of these talks and how the union addresses unresolved issues, particularly
regarding automation.
– Correctness: True
– Relevance: True
6. **Fact:** Analysts caution that a failure in negotiations could lead to substantial disruptions in supply chains and economic ramifications.
– Correctness: True
– Relevance: True
7. **Fact:** The situation is temporarily stable, but the potential for a strike remains if satisfactory agreements are not reached.
– Correctness: True
– Relevance: True
All facts are true and relevant to assessing the probability of a strike in Q1 2025 as they directly influence the potential labor outcomes and negotiation dynamics.
Fact-checked summary:
The dockworkers’ negotiations significantly affect the likelihood of a strike in the first quarter of 2025. The International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) has decided to suspend its strike until January 15, 2025, at which point both the union and port operators will return to the bargaining table to discuss crucial issues such as salary increases, automation, and working conditions. The possibility of a strike depends on the outcomes of these talks and how the union addresses unresolved issues, particularly surrounding automation. Analysts warn that failed negotiations could lead to disruptions in supply chains and economic consequences. Although the situation is currently stable, the potential for a strike remains if satisfactory agreements are not reached.
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.4 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.45 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)
Median from LLMs: 0.43
Base rate: 0.35 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.11
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.37
Reverse Mellers: 0.46
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.24
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.43
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The prediction of a potential strike in Q1 2025 hinges primarily on unresolved issues surrounding automation, despite the recent agreement on salary increases and a suspension of strike action until January 15, 2025. While this suspension and agreement indicate some level of cooperation, automation remains a traditionally contentious issue that threatens job security and could lead to impasses in negotiations. Historical tendencies of dockworker unions to strike over such issues, alongside the economic implications of failing negotiations, contribute to a moderate to elevated risk of a strike. However, the prediction could be wrong if negotiations progress successfully, external pressures prompt cooperation, or alternative solutions to automation are agreed upon, potentially mitigating the strike risk. Additionally, extended negotiation periods or shifts in economic environments may encourage further collaboration and reduce the likelihood of conflict.
Runtime: 70 seconds.
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Bots vs Staff Forecasts
BestWorld’s staff of Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel are forecasting the US Steel/Nippon Steel Merger in competition with Jeremy’s Multri-AI Oracle. Their version has two sub-questions:
(1) Will the US Steel / Nippon Steel merger be approved by the White House before Jan. 21. 2025?” Brian’s latest forecast is 80%; Carolyn’s is 70%. Michael’s is 35%.
(2) If yes, when will US Steel investors relations announce the final outcome of the acquisition with Nippon Steel?
a. Before November 5, 2024
b. Between November 6 and December 31, 2024
c. January 1 to 20, 2024
d. After January 21, 2024
Brian’s latest forecasts are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Carolyn’s are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Our spreadsheets below:
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Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median from the bestworldbots: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
